Front Matter

Front MatterSource: Operations Research, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Mar. - Apr., 1967), pp. i-xiiPublished by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/168551 .

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OPERATIONS

RESEARCH

The Journal of the Operations Research Society -of America

March-April 1967 VOLUME 15 NUMBER 2 CC

Pages 185-372

PUBLISHED BIMONTHLY BY THE

OPERATIONS RESEARCH SOCIETY OF AMERICA



OPERATIONS RESEARCH

The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America

EDITOR

THomAs E. CAYWOOD Caywood-Schiller Associates

401 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611

ASSOCIATE EDITORS

WILLIAM W. COOPER, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GEORGE B. DANTZIG, Stanford University, Stanford, California WALTER L. DEEMER, U.S. Arms Control & Disarmament Agency, Washington, D. C. ROBERT DORFMAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOSEPH H. ENGEL, Operations Evaluation Group, Washington, D. C. RICHARD V. EVANS, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio CHARLES GOODEVE, British Iron & Steel Assn., London W1, England JOSEPH 0. HARRISON, JR., Research Analysis Corporation, McLean, Virginia G. RONALD HERD, Kaman Aircraft Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT HERMAN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan WILLIAM J. HORVATH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan RONALD A. HOWARD, Stanford University, Stanford, California T. C. Hu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin HUGH J. MISER, Travelers Research Center, Hartford, Connecticut MARCEL F. NEUTS, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana GEORGE E. NICHOLSON, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina THORNTON PAGE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut E. W. PAXSON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California PAUL RANDOLPH, New Mexico State University, University Park, New Mexico MAURICE W. SASIENI, Unilever House, London E. C. 4, England ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz * Allen Applied Research Inc., Bethesda, Maryland R. M. THRALL, Editor, Management Science, Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, Mich. ROBERT S. WEINBERG, International Business Machines Corp., New York, N. Y. PETER B. WILSON, Canadian National Railways, Montreal, Quebec

MANUSCRIPTS of papers and Letters to the Editor should be submitted to the Editor or to one of the Associate Editors. Submission of a manuscript is considered to be a representation that it has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that, if the work results from a military contract, it has been released for open publication. Material for the Ana- lyst's Bookshelf should be submitted to HUGH J. MISER, Analyst's Bookshelf Editor, The Travelers Research Center, 250 Constitution Plaza, Hartford, Connecticut 06103. Announcements should be sent to the Editor of the BULLETIN, Van Court Hare, Jr., Analytical Associates, Inc., 420 Lexington Ave., New York, N. Y. 10017

MANAGING EDITOR AND ADVERTISING MANAGER

CHARLES P. CHADSEY Research Analysis Corporation

McLean, Virginia 22101

Copyright ? 1967 by the Operations Research Society of America. Published bimonthly by the Operations Research Society of America at Mount Royal

and Guilford Avenues, Baltimore, Maryland 21202. Second-class postage paid at the Post Office at Baltimore, Maryland 21202. Subscription orders should be addressed to the Business Manager, NORVELL E.

MILLER, III, 428 East Preston Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21202 Subscription Rate: $10.00 per volume (outside U. S. and Canada, $7.50 per volume).

Back volumes are available only through Kraus Reprint Corporation, 16 E. 46th St., New York, New York 10017

Reprints of individual articles are not available from the SOCIETY



rI THE CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES of the Franklin Institute

HAS SEVERAL OPENINGS FOR:

PHYSICAL SCIENTISTS

MATHEMATICIANS & STATISTICIANS

SYSTEMS ANALYSTS

OPERATIONS RESEARCH ANALYSTS

RESEARCH ENGINEERS * ECONOMISTS

To fill these openings we consider the applications of many candidates at the PhD and MA level. Most of these are able, conscientious and educationally well- qualified. But only a few have the combination of outstanding technical competence, originality, and intellectual boldness which we need. Many are looking for positions in which they will be engaged in predict- able activities closely related to what they have done before. A few are looking for novelty, new opportunity, and adventure. Those few who meet our requirements are offered good salaries, a stimulating environment and associates. Above all, we offer the opportunity to contribute to the solution of practical problems of the greatest importance at the level of the fighting commander and at the level of the highest national military decision maker.

Please send your resume to: James 0. Hibarger, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES

1401 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. 22209

CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES O t'44 OF THE FRANKLIN INSTITUTE

INS * Institute of Naval Studies OEG * Operations Evaluation Group SEG * Systems Evaluation Group NAVWAG * Naval Warfare Analysis Group

MCOAG * Marine Corps Operations Analysis Group

An equal opportunity employer



MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Our consulting practice has attractive openings for highly qualified above average young men who are specialists in their field. We have openings in:

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Engineers or mathematicians with formal training or practical experience in operations research. Economists interested in nationwide projects in transportation and other areas with formal training or practical experience in mathematical methods.

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS Data processing specialists with experience of computer feasibility studies and systems development. Engineers with data processing experience to experiment with new approaches and techniques for diverse companies and institutions. We can offer excellent growth potential and career opportunities to exceptional young executives. Responsibility and compensation can advance rapidly. Replies, which will be treated in strict confidence, should state age, education, professional qualifications, career experience and current salary.

Address replies to: Box 6711, OPERATIONS RESEARCH

428 East Preston Street Baltimore, Maryland 21202

SLMSCRIPT SIMSCRIPT is now available on the Control DataR 3600 computer system at Control Data Corporation's Twin Cities Data Center located in Minneapolis, Minnesota. SIMSCRIPT takes advantage of the Control DataR 3600 computer's 131,072 48-bit words of core memory, giving the user the opportunity to simulate larger problems than ever before. Customers are presently simulating operations including: production scheduling; inventory control; war game strategy; financial management; and the operation of a hospital emergency ward. Customers use SIMSCRIPT at their offices or at the Twin Cities Data Center. Customer rooms and analytical assistance are available at the Twin Cities Data Center. For further information please write or telephone Mr. R. C. Thompson, Control Data Corporation, 8100 34th Avenue South, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55440; telephone number 612/888-5555, Extension 4107.

ii



2.5 _ ____ I _ _l

C iRtULA PARKING OR ITS

ELLIPTICAL PARKING O RBITS

.5__.___ TGEGHEORETIC LINIMUM FON ELLIPTICAL ORAITS-

0 2 3 5 7 9

MINIMUM WEIGHT REQUIRED IN EARTH ORBIT, VENUS ORBITER MISSION

An elliptical parldng orbit

at Venus?

This figure illustrates the navigation, communications, bio- weight savings possible for a astronautics, propulsion and manned mission to Venus if an power systems. Bellcomm also elliptical parking orbit rather seeks aeronautical and mechan- than a circular one is used for ical engineers broadly experi- observing the planet. enced in vehicle systems or

This and other means of min- mission planning.

imizing the weight requirements If you are interested and feel for manned missions to Mars qualified for systems engineer- and Venus are under considera- ing work, Bellcomm welcomes tion by Bellcomm. These studies your resume. Send it to Mr. N. are part of our work for NASA's W. Smusyn, Personnel Director, office of Manned Space Flight. Bellcomm, Inc., Room 1502-H,

Bellcomm offers rewarding 1100 17th St., N. W., Washing- employment opportunities for ton, D. C. 20036. Bellcomm is an

qualified specialists in all tech- equal opportunity employer. nical disciplines bearing on \" Bellcomm, Inc, analysis of planetary missions- A Bl flight mechanics, guidance and ABellSystemCompany



MAruuriA ATIr A CHALLENGING OPPORTUNI- ,46 H nEvae X 14 TIES IN RESEARCH AND DEVEL-

OPMENT Princeton, N.J. Washington, D.C. Several responsible posi-

tions in operations research and systems analysis related to new advanced under-

Management Information OPERATIONS water weapon systems. Op-

RES*AR*H opportunities to develop and and Decision Systems RESEARCH apply new techniques.

Participation in weapon WEAPON cost/effectiveness, optimiza-

MATHEMATICA's efforts are SYSTEM tion of parameters, and ANALYSIS kill probability studies.

expanding In the development of management information and de- POSITIONS Faculty appointments. Op-

information and de- ~~~~~~portunity to participate in cision systems for industry and OFFER the organization of a grad-

uate curriculum in Opera- govern ment. tions Research. Excellent

working and living condi-

For more information on appli- tions.

cations and opportunities write to: ORDNANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE Dr. Tibor Fabian, President UNIVERSITY

P. 0. Box 30

MATHEMATICA State College, Pennsylvania 16801

One Palmer Square Send Resume to Personnel Director

Princeton, N.J. 08540 Equal opportunities employer

NEW FROM PRENTICE-HALL ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKLNG by Marcus Alexis, University of Rochester, and Charles Z. Wilson, State University of New York at Binghamton. Presents an inter- disciplinary approach through text and readings to the study of Organizational Decision Making. Among the features of this new book are: A discussion of both behavioral and quantitative developments relevant to modern decision-making OA unique presentation of the psychological foundations of decision-making An introduction to linear programming, game theory, and statistical decision theoryeApplication of the quantitative techniques to marketing and production-An introduction to the concepts and developments in the areas of planning. More than one-quarter of the book represents basic text material; and the readings included are presented in their entirety. February 1967, 544 pp., $10.00

Also of interest . . . OPERATIONS ECONOMY: INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF OPERATIONS RE- SEARCH by W. J. Fabrycky, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, and Paul E. Torgersen, Okla- homa State University. The purpose of this text is to help the reader grasp the importance of the quantitative approach to decision making, and to aid him in the proficient applica- tion of quantitative models in operational systems. Fundamental quantitative relationships common to most systems are emphasized. 1966, 512 pp., $12.50

PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT: SYSTEMS AND SYNTHESIS by Martin K. Starr, Columbia University. A unified introductory approach to the study of production management with an emphasis on systems and synthesis. The systems approach is utilized to treat all of the essential components of the production management complex. 1964, 533 pp., $9.50

For approval copies, write: Box 903

PRENTICE-HALL, Englewood Cliffs, N. J. 07632

iv



Career Appointments

New Perspectives in

Transportation Systems

and Concepts

The challenge: design a comprehensive mathematical model incorporating every variable that influences or is influenced by transportation systems-including existing and projected carrier vehicles, operating inter-city and intra-city.

This project illustrates the scope of capability in transportation systems and concepts at Booz-Allen Ap- plied Research . . . capability that includes all phases of transportation technology from complex overall systems analysis to in-depth studies of specific problems.

Imaginative engineers and scientists who wish to help us expand our contributions in the field of transportation are invited to write Mr. Robert A. Flint, Director of Professional Appointments.

BOOZ * ALLEN APPLIED RESEARCH Inc. 135 South LaSalle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 An equal opportunity employer

V



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CANTLEY, JOHN T. ROWELL, LOUISE SCHULTZ, HERBERT R. SEIDEN, EVERETT WALLACE,

RICHARD WATSON, and RONALD E. WYLLYS. A volume in the Wiley Information Sciences

Series. 1967. 344 pages. $9.95 * MATHEMATICAL METHODS FOR DIG- ITAL COMPUTERS, Volume 2. Edited by ANTHONY RALSTON, State University of New

York, Buffalo; and HERBERT S. WILF, University of Pennsylvania. 1967. Approx. 288 pages. Prob. $11.95 0 SCIENTISTS IN ORGANIZATIONS: Productive Climates for Re- search and Development. By DONALD C. PELZ and FRANK M. ANDREWS, both of the Uni- versity of Michigan. 1966. 318 pages. $10.00 0 SYSTEM ANALYSIS BY DIGITAL COMPUTER. Edited by FRANKLIN F. Kuo and JAMES F. KAISER, both of Bell Telephone

Laboratories, Inc. 1966. 438 pages. $8.95 * THE ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS: A Programmer's Introduction to Information Retrieval. By CHARLES T. MEADOW, IBM Corporation. 1967. 301pages. $11.50 0 NETWORK-BASED MANAGE- MENT SYSTEMS (PERT/CPM). By RUSSELL D. ARCHIBALD, Informatics, Inc.; and RICHARD L. VILLORIA, Houston Fearless Corporation. 1967. 508 pages. $16.00 0 CAL-

CULUS OF VARIATIONS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY. By M. R. HESTENES, University of California, Los Angeles. 1966. 405 pages. $12.95 * TEXTBOOK ON MECHANIZED INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, Second Edition. By ALLEN KENT, University of Pittsburgh. Volume 3 in the Interscience Library Science and Documentation Series. 1966. 371 pages. $10.95 * EFFECTIVE WRITING: For

Engineers . Managers . Scientists. By H. J. TICHY, Hunter College. 1966. 337 pages.

$5.95 * INTRODUCTION TO DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING. By GEORGE NEM- HAUSER, The Johns Hopkins University. 1966. 256 pages. $7.95 * ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND METHODS. By CARL F. CHRIST, The Johns Hopkins University. 1966. 705 pages. $14.95 0 DECISION AND CONTROL: The Meaning of Operational Re-

search and Management Cybernetics. By STAFFORD BERER, formerly Director of SIGMA.

1966. 556 pages. $13.50.

JOHN WILEY & SONS, Inc. 605 Third Avenue New York, N.Y. 10016

ix



4 -

AIR FORCE LOGISTICS COMMAND WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OHIO

OPERATIONS RESEARCH ANALYSIS are needed by the Operations Analysis Office of Headquarters Air Force Logistics Command at Wright- Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.

The work consists of sponsoring, coordinating and performing scientific operations research to improve current techniques or to develop new techniques for modern logistics management. The problems involve inventory theory, maintenance policies, procurement, transportation and similar functions for one of the largest "businesses" in the world.

Applicants must have a Bachelor's Degree or higher in Mathematics, Statistics, Economics or Operations Research. A degree in Engineering with strong preparation in Mathematics or Statistics is also acceptable. Experience in Military Logistics is desirable.

Salary range is $8,479 to $12,873 per annum, depending upon the qualifications of the applicant.

All Civil Service benefits are available, including liberal sick and annual leave, life insurance, retirement and health benefits.

Interested applicants should submit papers as called for by Civil Service Announcement 193B for Operations Research Analyst, (obtainable in U. S. Post Offices), to Headquarters, 2750th Air Base Wing, Attn: EWACEH (Mr. Ike Adams), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433.

AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER

x



Operations Research Society of America

1966-1967

OFFICERS OF THE SOCIETY

JOHN F. MAGEE, President JOHN E. WALSH, Vice President Arthur D. Little, Inc. System Development Corporation 35 Acorn Park 2500 Colorado Avenue Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140 Santa Monica, California 90406

JOSEPH H. ENGEL, Secretary THOMAS E. OBERBECK, Treasurer Center for Naval Analyses Office of Research Analyses (RRRR) 1401 Wilson Boulevard Holloman AFB Arlington, Virginia 22209 New Mexico 88330

COUNCIL OF THE SOCIETY

196547 Past President, GEORGE E. KIMBALL, Arthur D. Little, Inc., 35 Acorn Park, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140

1966-68 Past President, GEORGE SHORTLEY, Boos, Allen Applied Research, Inc., 4733 Bethesda Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland 20014

1964-67 MURRAY GEISLER DAVID B. HERTZ The Rand Corporation McKinsey & Co., Inc. 1700 Main Street 270 Park Avenue Santa Monica, California 90406 New York, New York 10017

1965-68 RALPH E. GOMORY HERBERT K. WEISS Thomas J. Watson Data Systems Division

Research Center Litton Industries P. 0. Box 218 8000 Woodley Yorktown Heights, N.Y. 10598 Van Nuys, California 91406

1966-69 WALTER L. DEEMER GEORGE E. NICHOLSON, JR. Arms Control and Department of Statistics

Disarmament Agency University of North Carolina Weapons Evaluation & Control Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27515 New State Department Bldg. Washington, D. C. 20451

EDITORS -OF ORSA PUBLICATIONS

OPERATIONS RESEARCH BULLETIN of the Operations Research The Journal of the Operations Re- Society of America search Society of America VAN COURT HARE, JR., Editor

THOMAS E. CAYWOOD, Editor % Analytical Associates, Inc. Caywood-Schiller Associates 420 Lexington Avenue 401 N. Michigan Avenue New York, New York 10017 Chicago, Illinois 60611

INTERNATIONAL ABSTRACTS IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH

TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE HERBERT P. GALLIHER, Editor ROBERT HERMAN, Editor Department of

GM Research Laboratories Industrial Engineering 12 Mile and Mound Roads University of Michigan Warren, Michigan 48090 Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104



STANDING COMMITTEES

Membership Committee Publications Committee

Kenneth W. Yarnold, Chairman Hugh J. Miser, Chairman System Development Corp. The Travelers Research Center Inc. 2500 Colorado Avenue 250 Constitution Plaza Santa Monica, California 90406 Hartford, Connecticut 06103

Education Committee Nominating Committee

Jack R. Borsting, Chairman Paul F. Dunn, Chairman Dept. of Operations Analysis Information Dynamics Corp. U. S. Naval Postgraduate School 4720 Montgomery Lane Monterey, California 93940 Bethesda, Maryland 20014

Charles D. Flagle William S. Jewell William S. Jewell Paul L. Kingston John D. C. Little C. E. Law Gifford H. Symonds Bernhard W. Romberg

OTHER COMMITTEES

Lanchester Prize Committee Meetings Committee

George E. Kimball, Chairman David A. Catcher, Chairman Arthur D. Little, Inc. Arthur D. Little, Inc. 35 Acorn Park 35 Acorn Park Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140 Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140

David M. Boodman Sections Committee George K. Chacko Emory Cook

William J. Nemerever, Chairman Peter J. Sandiford 571 North 169th Street Seattle, Washington 98133

Representative to the NRC Recognition Committee Robert F. Rinehart

Georges Brigham, Chairman U. S. Naval Postgraduate Scho Arthur Andersen & Co. Monterey, California 93940 501 Norton Building Seattle, Washington 98104

Albert Brown Representatives to the AAAS Robert F. Rinehart W. Edward Cushen

National Bureau of Standards Representative to IFORS U. S. Department of Commerce

Washington, D. C. 20234 Hugh J. Miser

The Travelers Research Center Inc. Ellis A, Johnson 250 Constitution Plaza 4819 Essex Avenue Hartford, Connecticut 06103 Chevy Chase, Maryland 20015

BUSINESS OFFICE

Requests for membership information and applications as well as subscriptions and orders for back issues of Society publications should be addressed to:

Operations Research Society of America 428 East Preston Street Baltimore, Maryland 21202



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