Front Matter Source: Operations Research, Vol. 16, No. 3 (May - Jun., 1968), pp. i-xii Published by: INFORMS Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/168575 . Accessed: 09/05/2014 20:22 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. . INFORMS is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Operations Research. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 194.29.185.85 on Fri, 9 May 2014 20:22:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
Transcript
Front MatterSource: Operations Research, Vol. 16, No. 3 (May - Jun., 1968), pp. i-xiiPublished by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/168575 .
Accessed: 09/05/2014 20:22
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].
.
INFORMS is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Operations Research.
http://www.jstor.org
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OPERATIONS RESEARCH The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America
ED ITOR THOMAS E. CAYWOOD
Caywood-Schiller Associates 401 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611
ASSOCIATE EDITORS EGON BALAS, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania WILLIAM W. COOPER, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GEORGE B. DANTZIG, Stanford University, Stanford, California WALTER L. DEEMER, U.S. Arms Control & Disarmament Agency, Washington, D. C JAMES M. DOBBIE, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT DORFMAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts RICHARD V. EVANS, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio CHARLES GOODEVE, British Iron & Steel Assn., London W1, England JOSEPH O. HARRISON, JR., National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D. C. G. RONALD HEnD, Kaman Aircraft Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT HERMAN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan WILLIAM J. HORVATH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan RONALD A. HOWARD, Stanford University, Stanford, California T. C. Hu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin HUGH J. MISER, Travelers Research Center, Hartford, Connecticut MARCEL F. NEUTS, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana GEORGE E. NICHOLSON, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina THORNTON PAGE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut E. W. PAXSON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California N. U. PRABHU, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York PAUL RANDOLPH, New Mexico State University, University Park, New Mexico MAURICE W. SASIENI, Unilever House, London E. C. 4, England ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz * Allen Applied Research Inc., Bethesda, Maryland CLAYTON J. THOMAS, Operations Analysis, USAF Hdq., Washington, D. 8. R. M. THRALL, Editor Management Science, Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, Mich. ROBERT S. WEINBERG, Anheuser-Busch, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri PETER B. WILSON, Canadian National Railways, Montreal, Quebec
MANUSCRIPTS of papers and Letters to the Editor should be submitted to the Editor or to one of the Associate Editors. Submission of a manuscript is considered to be a representation that it has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that, if the work results from a military contract, it has been released for open publication. Material for the Ana- lyst's Bookshelf should be submitted to HUGH J. MISER, Analyst's Bookshelf Editor, The Travelers Research Center, 250 Constitution Plaza, Hartford, Connecticut 06103. Announcements should be sent to the Editor of the BULLETIN, Gordon Crook, The Chase Manhattan Bank, 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10015
MANAGING EDITOR AND ADVERTISING MANAGER
CHARLES P. CHADSEY Research Analysis Corporation
McLean, Virginia 22101
Copyright ? 1968 by the Operations Research Society of America. Published bimonthly by the Operations Research Society of America at Mount Royal
and Guilford Avenues, Baltimore, Maryland 21202. Second-class postage paid at the Post Office at Baltimore, Maryland 21202. Subscription orders should be addressed to the Operations Research Society of
America, 428 East Preston Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21202. Subscription Rate: $10.00 per volume (outside U. S. and Canada, $7.50 per volume)
Back Issues: Volumes 1 through 13 are available only from Kraus Reprint Cor- poration, 16 East 46th Street, New York, New York 10017. Volumes 14 to date are available from ORSA at the above address.
Reprints of individual articles are not available from the SOCIETY
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__ ~TION STUDIES - SUBSYS- i_ - _ TEM PERFORMANCE i
~~-~~i A N.ALYS ES.~ ~
' Q~uestion: anYO ua.iy This is a big order, we know. But-
If you've got it to give. If you're experienced in any of these areas. And have the drive and desire to extend your skills in systems disciplines, Honeywell offers you a real opportunity to perform in a challenging, rewarding, results-oriented envi- ronment!
Tell us about yourself. Send resume to J. R. Harding, Em- ployment Representative.
MATH EMATICA Princeton, N.J. Bethesda, Md. A/loving?l
Management Information If so, please share the informa-
and Decision Systems tion with the Business Office so that you don't miss any of your
MATHEMATICA's efforts are JOURNALS. Send us your old ad- expanding in the development of dress and your new address and management information and de- your new (current) business affili- cision systems for industry and ation. Please include your ZIP government. code.
For more information on appli- O t
. ~~~~~Operations Research cations and opportunities write lo: Society of
Dr. Tibor Fabian, President America
MATHEMATICA 428 East Preston Street,
One Palmer Square Baltimore, Maryland 21202
Princeton, N.J. 08540
a ~Total Positivityl VOLUME I
Samuel Karlin
Total positivity is a theoretical concept of considerable power that
plays an important part in statistical decision theory, in the study
of coupled mechanical systems, in the theory of stochastic processes,
and other branches of mathematics. In this volume, the first of two,
Professor Karlin develops this concept and applies it to problems
involving moment spaces, boundary-value problems of higher-order
differential operators, and problems in the theory of inequalities
and convexity. More than half of this material is published here
for the first time, and an extensive bibliography is included. $17.50
Order from your bookstore, please
STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
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One of the few organizations in the nation whose growth is directly related to the growth of its Operations Analysts...
And vice versa. Either way you look at it, the growth here has been substantial. A new field for an aggressive new company often results in such growth, but we think that the formation of an entire division, just to support the interest of our customers, is exceptional. This group is our Command Systems Division. Its responsibilities include 1) Analysis of the capabilities of command and control systems, and evaluation of their performance; 2) Analysis of transportation, logistics and inventory control problems; 3) Design and implementation of command systems readiness simulations, war games and exercises; 4) Analysis, design and implementation of elec- tronic data processing derived display information for command authority usage; 5) Simulations and computational support for strategy optimization and planning of both military and civil systems; 6) Analysis, design and implementation of supporting subsystems for the above applications. The openings span a wide range of levels and experience factors; start- ing salaries extend to $18,000. If you're intrigued with the prospects of joining a 100%/o systems organization, where you'll be working with some of the leading figures in your field on projects that place major emphasis on Operations Analysis, we'd enjoy hearing from you. And we think you'll enjoy hearing from us. Write fully in confidence, or call collect to Mr. Iohn Weis, Dept. 501-I, Com- munications 2 Systems, Inc. 6565 Arlington Blvd., Falls Church, Va. (703) 533- 8877 (15 minutes from downtown Washington, D.C.)
communications 0 systems, incorporated Paramus, Boston, Washington, El Segundo A subsidiary of Computer Sciences Corporation
INC O AT E (An Equal Opportunity Employer, M/F)
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We are proud to announce that Computer Professions, Inc. is now in the new Blake Building, 1025 Connecticut Ave., N.W., in the heart of Washington's financial and legal district, to provide the finest possible service for applicants and client companies. We have expanded our facilities to include 27 consultants' offices, a series of interviewing suites for client companies, conference rooms and computer facility.
Western Office
In our continuing effort to increase our applicant-client capabilities, CPI now has a Los Angeles branch to service the western states. Operations researchers now in or interested in relocating to the Western U.S. will be processed through the D.C. office and routed to the L.A. office to provide each applicant with maximum exposure to the opportunities available in his area of interest. We are also completing arrangements for a Canadian affiliate, and expansion to other major cities.
MARKETING ANALYSTS $11-$1 9,000
We have a number of clients in consulting and industry seeking O.R. analysts to gather and analyze data for evaluating marketing opportunities of existing and new products in a variety of fields from retailing through nuclear products. Will make recommendations and presentations to top corporate management.
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
$10-$25,000 plus bonus & %
Several major clients are seeking personnel with education or experience in MIS for internal and external consulting. Projects range from com- merical to military applications with positions open from new grads to managers. If you have the qualifications or experience to take a system from conception to implementation, WE NEED YOUI
MILITARY ANALYSTS to $20,000 plus
Our client, one of the most capable O.R. groups in the country, has a critical need for analysts with ability for or experience in military analysis for ap- plications in cost effect, weapons systems studies, ASW, etc. This group reports directly to the Secretary of Defense and acts as an arbiter/co- ordinator between the military services.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSTS $11 -$25,000
One of the foremost consulting firms is searching for O.R. professionals to enter the stimulating new fields of urban rehabilitation, air pollution control, health and welfare, ANC crime research. Senior positions require outstanding experience in these fields.
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What a benefits Free domestic and 75% off international flights with this leader in their North- east or Southwest locations. Excellent management potential with a rapidly expanding group involved in all phases of corporate O.R. and airlines problems.
COMMERCIAL O.R. PILOT GROUPS $10-$18,000
One of the nation's largest corporations (70 divi- sions) is creating a pilot O.R. group to research divisional problems in management control, product control, systems and software design through sophisticated mathematical techniques. Need per- sonnel from Bachelor to Doctoral levels.
CORPORATE PLANNING ANALYSTS $10-$21 ,000
Washington division of a major national manu- facturer needs O.R. analysts to guide the division in long-range planning and forecasting, setting up management teams, new facilities planning and business decisions. Seek recent advanced grads and experienced commercial O.R. analysts.
ECONOMETRICS $1 1-$25,000
Research and development arm of a petro/ chemical industries leader is looking for problem solvers to assist them with scientific, engineering and advanced research applications of new major break-throughs to commercial adaptations.
We need professionals to staff 4,000 positions nationally and internationally in:
* Commercial Ops Res. 12-30K * Military 0ps Res 11 -25K 0 Applied Math. 12-25K
STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION Volume 63 June 1968 Number 322
Convergence of a Human Population to a Stable Form ................... Ansley J. Coale Selected Economic Data-Accuracy vs. Reporting Speed
H. 0. Stekler and Susan W. Burch Linear Approximations to the Census and BLS Seasonal Adjustment Methods
Allan Young Spectral Evaluation of BLS and Census Revised Seasonal Adjustment
Harry M. Rosenblatt Functional Form in the Demand for Money .............................. Paul Zarembka Standard Errors of Indexes from Complex Samples ........................... Leslie Kish Multivariate Stratified Surveys ....................................... Samprit Chatterjee On Product Moments from a Finite Universe ................................. S. N. Nath Multinomial Sampling with Partially Categorized Data ................. Saul Blumenthal Estimation in a Heteroscedastic Regression Model
Herbert C. Rutemiller and David A. Bowers A Test of the Mean Square Error Criterion for Restrictions in Linear Regression
T. Dudley Wallace and Carlos Toro-Vizearrondo Simultaneous Estimation by Partial Totals for Compartmental Models
J. J. Beauchamp and Richard G. Cornell Aitken Estimators as a Tool in Allocating Predetermined a Aggregates
Alan A. Powell Some Estimators for a Linear Model with Random Coefficients
Clifford Hildreth and James P. Houck Improved Estimators for Coefficients in Linear Regression .............. Stanley L. Sclove A Modified Compound Poisson Process with Normal Compounding ....... S. James Press Two k-Sample Slippage Tests ........................................ William J. Conover On a General System of Distributions (Part I and II)
Irving Burr and Peter J. Cislak On a General System of Distributions III. The Sample Range ............... Irving Burr Fractional Replications of 2P Factorial Experiments with the Factors Applied Sequentially
R. R. Prairie and W. J. Zimmer Optimal Sample Size in Two-Action Problems When the Sample Observations Are Lognormal
and the Precision h Is Known ........................................ Gordon Kaufman Robustness of the F-Test to Errors of Both Kinds and the Correlation between the Nu-
merator and Denominator of the F-Ratio ....................... Theodore S. Donaldson Posterior Distribution of Percentiles: Bayes' Theorem for Sampling from a Population
Bruce M. Hill The First-Median Test: A Two Sided Version of the Control Median Test
Joseph L. Gastwirth Certain Uncorrelated Non-Parametric Test Statistics .................... Myles Hollander On the Evaluation of Distribution Functions
W. R. Schucany and H. L. Gray BOOK REVIEWS
For further information, please contact American Statistical Association
810 18th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20006
vi
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The Lambda Corporation, which has attained a position of prominence in defense analysis, has now entered into in- dustrial systems analysis. We intend to expand in both directions but will continue to take on only the more chal- lenging and meaningful problems ... in areas where we-have made signal contributions-optimization, application of the theory of games, cost-effectiveness methodology, and model building.
We will grow only as fast as we can attract the kind of people we believe are necessary for outstanding work, people who
* are trained in one of the quantitative sciences, preferably to the Ph.D. level
* prefer practical problem solving to "pure" research and yet are able to foresee and carry out the theoretical work that is part and parcel of worthwhile problem solving
* are able to use the computer efficiently as an aid in analysis
* have a potential for creative, independent work but can also work smoothly in a small team.
If you meet our standards, there is a better than even chance that we meet yours. Write to J. N. Killalea for an out-of-date booklet.
LAMBDA A 1501 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, Va. 22209
An Equal Opportunity Employer
Vii
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Positions exist for systems analysts with ops research background in- terested in applying their knowledge and experience to new technical ap- proaches in military and/or medical systems design.
Duties will include math modeling and statistical evaluation of actual operational problems. Significant efforts will be devoted to the develop- ment of computer simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative concepts before actual implementation.
The ideal candidate will have a Math or Engineering degree and several years experience in ops research or related areas. He will join a firm where individual challenge and achievement are assured along with outstanding long-term growth potential, compensation and benefits.
Our Boston location offers many advantages including excellent schools, colleges, medical facilities and the cultural advantages of the East's fastest- growing area.
Interested candidates should contact Mr. Floyd W. Brown (collect) at (617) 492-7800 daily 9 to 6 or send your resume to Mr. Brown at F. W. Brown & Associates, Inc., 126 Inman Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
ORSA MEMBERSHIP
Any person interested in Operations Research may become an Associate Member of ORSA by submitting an application plus the appropriate dues. Students (at least half-time) and enlisted personnel in the Armed Forces of the U.S.A. may apply for Student Associate Membership. For election to full Member status, an Associate Member must supply pertinent information on his qualifications to the Membership Committee, be voted on favorably by the Committee and then by the Council.
Annual dues are $12.50 for Associate Members and Members, $6.50 for Student Associate Members and $7.50 for Members nonresident in either the U.S.A. or Canada. Annual dues include a subscription to OPERA- TIONS RESEARCH, the BULLETIN, and INTERNATIONAL AB- STRACTS IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH.
Application blanks and information on the Society may be obtained from:
Operations Research Society of America 428 East Preston Street
Baltimore, Maryland 21202
v iii
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EDUCATION Ra Operations Research & Economics Division
CURRENT PROGRAMS
M.S., great;Ph.D.,swell. M9th, Econ.,Chem., Poli Sci., Agricultural Economics
We have and like them all. Eng'g., Phys., Pub. Health, Civil Defense and Bus. Admin. are typical. Community Health Services
Developing Countries
Education Economics
Information Systems
We like experience Experience counts Medical Care Administration We
likepexperien heavily, especially Military Systems
Production Economics
Public Health
Write and speak clearly Widely informed on MISCELLANEOUS and concisely for technical current affairs and and management audiences public issues. Beginning 10th year as
alike. separately operated member of
Research Triangle university
family-- Duke, the University
of North Carolina, N.C. State,
PROFESSIONAL APPROACH and us.
300-mon staff, five
multidisciplinary divisions.
Original Develop and pursue own 200-acre campus in the
ideas; grasp limitations of Research Triangle Pork between
Imaginative l research results as well Rsac ragePr ewe
Imaginative reearh o resuitis asr wellRaleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill. as opportunities for
Prudent applying them; interpret Superb cultural envi- them judiciously; document ronment, superb sports, superb
l Accurate r them carefully. graduate schools, superb weather, superb computer facilities. Good place.
An equal opportunity employer. | SELF-DISCIPLINE |
Meet rigorous Constructive criticism If you think there's a Meet rigorous - of your own I!"'Tn> If youth
report deadlines. andothers' work. motch~we'll be glad to hear from you. Write:
SWEET DISPOSITION
Dr. Edgar A. Parsons, Director
Operations Research and
As project leader or foam ~~~~~~~~~Economics Division | As project leader or team | al Like the rest of us. Research Triangle Institute member (you'll be both), - L In
work with professionals P.O. Box 12194
of many backgrounds on a Research Triangle Park
variety of assignments. Foreign assignments require it North Carolina 27709
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CAREERS in Operations Research, Systems Engineering
The first thing we did
was file the textj
At CONSULTEC, Inc., we have dispensed with the textbook, recognizing the need to look at problem-solving in a hard- headed, real-world context. And we have taken the meaning of "solve" several steps beyond paperwork reports and recommendations ... to actual hardware and operating systems In other words, we're "doers"-analysts, engineers, designers- as well as theorists.
We are currently at work in 16 areas (with certain inevitable overlappings). They are:
Systems Engineering Systems Analysis _ Computer Systems Economic Analysis' Urban Planning Ship Design Assurance Engineering Resource Management Analysis Programming, Planning and Budgeting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis R&D Program Evaluation Program and Financial Management Management Information Systems Reliability Analysis Logistics Analysis Business Consulting
Whether the objective is a physical or management system, our objectives remain constant: to help increase sales and profits (in the case of industrial/commercial work) ... to assure maximum, cost-effectiveness of the given program or system ... to get a job done right, on time.
If you like to get things done, to ar . - create systems from the inside out, you will enjoy o,> broad spectrum of challenges awaiting imaginative professionals at.CONSULTEC. Careers are now open to mathematpci~ns,$ ''tt0 s economists, operations analysts and engitrs at all degree levels. For more information, write to our Direotor of Professional Staff Appointments.
Join us. You have nothing to lose but your textbook.
iCONSULTEC, INC. 1725 K STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036 An equal opportunity employer M&F
X
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JOSEPH H. ENGEL, President THOMAS E. CAYWOOD, Vice President Communications Satellite Corp. Caywood-Schiller Associates 950 L'Enfant Plaza South, S.W. 401 N. Michigan Avenue Washington, D. C. 20024 Chicago, Illinois 60611
ROBERT E. MACHOL, Secretary KENNETH W. YARNOLD, Treasurer School of Business System Development Corporation Northwestern University 2500 Colorado Avenue 339 East Chicago Avenue Santa Monica, California 90406 Chicago, Illinois 60611
COUNCIL OF THE SOCIETY
1966-69 Past President, GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz, Allen Applied Research, Inc., 4733 Bethesda Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland 20014
1967-70 Past President, JOHN F. MAGEE, Arthur D. Little, Inc., 35 Acorn Park, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140
1968-71 Past President, JOHN E. WALSH, Statistics Department, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas 75222
1966-69 WALTER L. DEEMER GEORGE E. NICHOLSON, JR. Arms Control and Disarma- Department of Statistics
ment Agency University of North Carolina New State Department Bldg. Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27515 Washington, D. C. 20451
1967-70 ERNEST KOENINGSBERG GEORGES BRIGHAM Matson Research Corporation Arthur Anderson & Company 215 Market Street 501 Norton Building San Francisco, Calif. 94105 Seattle, Washington 98104
1968-71 CHARLES D. FLAGLE DAVID S. STOLLER The Johns Hopkins University U.S. Office of Education School of Hygiene and Public Washington, D. C. 20202
Health Baltimore, Maryland 21205
BUSINESS OFFICE
Requests for membership information and applica- tions as well as subscriptions and orders for back issues of Society publications should be addressed to:
Operations Research Society of America 428 East Preston Street Baltimore, Maryland 21202
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OPERATIONS RESEARCH BULLETIN of the Operations Research The Journal of the Operations Re- Society of America search Society of America GORDON CROOK, Editor
HUGH J. MISER, Editor Operations Research Division The Travelers Research Center The Chase Manhattan Bank 250 Constitution Plaza 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza Hartford, Connecticut 06103 New York, New York 10015
TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL ABSTRACTS IN ROBERT HERMAN, Editor OPERATIONS RESEARCH
GM Research Laboratories HUGH E. BRADLEY, Editor 12 Mile and Mound Roads The Upjohn Company Warren, Michigan 48090 Kalamazoo, Michigan 49001
PUBLICATIONS IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH DAVID B. HERTZ
McKinsey & Company, Inc. 245 Park Avenue New York, New York 10017
COMMITTEES AND REPRESENTATIVES
Membership Committee* Representative to IFORS EZRA KRENDEL, Chairman JOHN F. MAGEE
Management Science Center Arthur D. Little, Inc. University of Pennsylvania 35 Acorn Park Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140
Education Committee* JACK R. BORSTING, Chairman Representative to the NRC
Dept. of Operations Analysis HUGH J. MISER U.S. Naval Postgraduate School The Travelers Research Center Monterey, California 93940 250 Constitution Plaza
Publications Committee* Hartford, Connecticut 06103 ROBERT OLIVER, Chairman
Operations Research Department Long Range Planning Committee University of California THOMAS E. OBERBECK, Chairman Berkeley, California 90024 Office of Research Analyses (RRRR)
Nominating Committee* Holloman AFB, New Mexico 88330 ALFRED BLUMSTEIN, Chairman
Institute for Defense Analyses Representatives to the AAAS 400 Army-Navy Drive W. EDWARD CUSHEN Arlington, Virginia 22202 National Bureau of Standards
U.S. Department of Commerce Lanchester Price Committee Washington, D. C. 20234
GEORGE SHORTLEY, Chairman Booz, Allen Applied Research, Inc. ELLIS A. JOHNSON 4733 Bethesda Avenue 4819 Essex Avenue Bethesda, Maryland 20014 Chevy Chase, Maryland 20015
Sections Committee BERNARD B. WATSON (Alternate)
Research Analysis Corporation WILLIAM NEMEREVER, Chairman McLean, Virginia 22101
571 North 169th Street Seattle, Washington 98133
Representative to the Conference Board on
Meetings Committee Mathematical Sciences
ALLAN HARBAUGH, Chairman ALEX M. MOOD
LTV Electro Systems Inc. Public Policy Research Organization Box 6118 University of California Dallas, Texas 75222 Irvine, California 92664
* Standing Committees
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