Front Matter

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FOREIGN

AFFAIRS

Winter 1985/86 $4.95 a copy

Morality and Foreign Policy George F. Kennan What Went Wrong With Arms Control?

Thomas C. Schelling

-South Africa

Why Constructive Engagement Failed

Sanford J. Ungar and Peter Vale

World Debt: The U.S. Reconsiders Christine A. Bogdanowicz-Bindert

Peru: The Message From Garcia Riordan Roett Mexico at the Brink Jorge G. Casta?eda

Arabs and Israelis: A Political Strategy Harold H. Saunders

Nigeria Update Larry Diamond Poland: Four Years After

Jerzy Milewski, Kr%ys%tof Pomian and Jan Zielonka



AMERICAN "It has clearly become part of the dialog about American foreign

policy in this country 1' John E. Rielly, President, The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. "... we in the Department of State

are particularly conscious of its contribution to broad public

understanding..." John Hughes, Asst. Secy, of State. ".. .a valu

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plex issues our nation faces today? John Heinz, U.S. Senator, Pa.

".. .under the astute direction of Mr. (Peter) Krogh, who is bent

on elucidation, not aggravation..." Walter Goodman, N.Y. Times.

INTERESTS A PUBLIC TELEVISION SERIES DEVOTED TO FOREIGN AFFAIRS Check your local Jistings

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS (ISSN 00157120), Winter 1985/86. Vol. 64, No. 2. Published five times annually (September, December, February, April, June) at 58 East 68th Street, New York, N. Y. 10021. Subscriptions U.S. $25.00?Outside U.S. $32.00 per year. Second Class Postage paid at New York, N. Y. and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send form 3579 to Neodata, P. O. Box 2615, Boulder, Colo. 80302.



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IT'S ALWAYS

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Policies vary. Customs vary And assumptions about cover

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WE NOT FICTION G 1. ACC (ADVANCED CONCEPT CENTER). Where

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2. COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS. Computer simulated aerodynamic modeling that generates

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5. INSTRUMENT PANEL Touch-sensitive cathode

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AT ABOUTI A BOTTLE, EASILY THE BEST \ALUE

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Grumman's X-29

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

WINTER 1985/86

Morality and Foreign Policy.George F. Kennan 205

What Went Wrong With Arms Control? Thomas C. Schelling 219

South Africa: Why Constructive Engagement Failed

SanfordJ. Ungar and Peter Vale 234 World Debt: The United States Reconsiders

Christine A. Bogdanowicz-Bindert 259

Peru: The Message From Garcia .Riordan Roett 274

Mexico at the Brink .Jorge G. Casta?eda 287

Arabs and Israelis: A Political Strategy Harold H. Saunders 304

Nigeria Update .Larry Diamond 326

Poland: Four Years After

Jerzy Milewski, Krzysztof Pomian and Jan Zielonka 337

Recent Books on International Relations. 360

Source Material. 385

Foreign Affairs is published five times annually

by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.

Vol. 64, No. 2.? 1985



WILLIAM G. HYLAND

Editor

PETER HAYES

Assistant Editor

SHEILA G. BRILL

Assistant to the Editor

MARGARET K. KABLE

Circulation Manager

SUSANNAH L. SMITH

Assistant to the Publisher

PETER GROSE

Managing Editor

LINDA S. ROBINSON

Senior Assistant Editor

SARA E. ROBERTSON

Assistant Editor

DORIS ELIZABETH FOkEST

Publisher

ELDRIDGE A. GREENING

Advertising Director

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LUCY EDWARDS DESPARD

Book Editor

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Book Advertising/Promotion SUSAN M. GREENE

Reprints and Permissions

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FRITZ STERN

The articles in Foreign Affairs do not represent any consensus of beliefs. We do not expect

that readers of the review will sympathize with all the sentiments they find there, for some of our writers will flatly disagree with others; but we hold that while keeping clear of mere vagaries Foreign Affairs can do more to inform American public opinion by a broad hospitality to

divergent ideas than it can by identifying itself with one school. It does not accept responsibility for the views expressed in any article, signed or unsigned, which appears in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear there. The Editors.

Foreign Affairs is published five times annually by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. Editorial Offices: 58 East 68th Street, New York, N.Y. 10021. Telephone (212) 734 0400. Telex: 239852 CFR UR.

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Advertising: For rates and schedules, contact the Advertising Office (212) 734-0400. Foreign Affairs is a member of the Audit Bureau of Circulations and the Magazine Publishers Association.

Reprints and permissions: Write Foreign Affairs, Reader Services, 58 East 68th Street, New York, N.Y. 10021, or call (212) 734-0400.



SHE'S GOT HER MOTHER'S EYES, HER FATHER'S NOSE

AND HER UNCLE'S DEFICIT.

It's quite a legacy her favorite uncle has handed her. Annual federal deficits ap proaching $200 billion. A current national debt of $1.6 trillion. Po

tentially $13 trillion by the year 2000.

In fact if federal def icits continue at their

current rate, ifs as if

every baby born in 1985 will have a $50,000 debt strapped to its back.

The great debate over deficits no longer centers on whether or not they should be reduced?but how.

One side favors raising taxes. But whose? 90% of all personal taxable in come already comes from tax brackets of

$35,000 and below. Does anyone seriously suggest increasing the tax burden of lower and middle income families?

Well then, the argument follows, tax the rich. But, if the federal government took every dollar over the $75,000 tax bracket that isn't already taxed, it would only col lect enough to run the country for a week.

The alternative seems clear. Cut spend ing. But, again, the question is how. We're W.R. Grace & Co. While our busi

ness interests in chemicals, natural re sources and consumer services are

worldwide, our pri mary interest is in the future of America's

economy. Thafs where

any corporation's best interest lies.

Our chairman headed a presidential commission that iden tified ways to end abuses in federal spending. It found 2,478 specific ways.

The President and Congress have seen

the report, we think you should too. There's a booklet that summa

rizes it. For your free copy, write to: USA DEBT, Dept. F, P.O. Box 3190, Ogdeg Utah 84409.

Unfortunately, almost 75% of the recom mendations won't be implemented unless Congress acts. And, sometimes, the words

"Congressional action" are mutually exclu

sive. Thafs why we have to take action first. Read the booklet. If it gets you angry,

change things. Write to Congress. If you don't think that will do it, run for Congress.

Our children and grandchildren shouldn't pay for our mistakes. We should be passing on to them a healthy economy and a high standard of living. That should be their inheritance. That should be their birthright.

GRACE One step ahead of a changing world.

W.R. Grace & Co., 1114 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036

A-13



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A-16



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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

IF YOU CAN'T HAVE IT ALL . . .

REPRINTS

THE NEXT BEST THING!

The Sources of Soviet Conduct "X," George F. Kennan No. 25403, July 1947

New Realities and New Ways of Thinking George P. Shultz No. 63401, Spring 1985

Misconceptions about Russia Are a Threat to America Aleksandr Solzenitsyn No. 58402, Spring 1980

Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications Carl Sagan No. 62202, Winter 1983/84

Foreign Policy Under Reagan II

Henry Grunwald No. 63201, Winter 1984/85

The President's Choice: Star Wars or Arms Control McGeorge Bundy, George F. Kennan, Robert S. McNamara, Gerard Smith No. 63203, Winter 1984/85

The Military Role of Nuclear Weapons: Perceptions and Misperceptions Robert S. McNamara No. 62104, Fall 1983

The Future of Yalta

Zbigniew Brzezinski No. 63204, Winter 1984/85

What Are the Lessons of Vietnam? David Fromkin and James Chace No. 63402, Spring 1985

Rumors of War: The 1914 Analogy Miles Kahler No. 58209, Winter 1979/80

Coming to Grips with Vietnam John Wheeler No. 63403, Spring 1985

Scientific Frontiers and National Frontiers: A Look Ahead Lewis Thomas No. 62408, Spring 1984

The U.S. and Western Europe: Wait and Worry Stanley Hoffmann, No. 63309 America and the World 1984

The Price and the Promise Amine Gemayel No. 63404, Spring 1985

Beyond Free Trade Robert B. Reich No. 61402, Spring 1983

Lebanon and its Inheritors Fouad Ajami No. 634?5, Spring 1985

The Care and Repair of Public Myth William H. McNeill No. 61101, Fall 1982

The Gorbachev Succession William G. Hyland No. 63406, Spring 1985

NEW AND AVAILABLE:

Superpower Summitry Richard Nixon No. 64101, Fall 1985

Troubled Coexistence Adam B. Ulam No. 64102, Fall 1985

Gorbachev's Strategy Jerry F. Hough No. 64103, Fall 1985

Gorbachev and Economic Reform Marshall I. Goldman No. 64104, Fall 1985

Demystifying Contadora Susan Kaufman Purcell No. 64105, Fall 1985

The Right to Intervene Lloyd N. Cutler No. 64106, Fall 1985

The Busyness of American Policy Ernest van den Haag No. 64107, Fall 1985

War Powers Reconsidered Jacob K. Javits No. 64108, Fall 1985

Israel's Security Option Amos Perlmutter No. 64109, Fall 1985

Refugees: A Never-Ending Story W. R. Smyser No. 64110, Fall 1985

The Eagle and the Bear James Schlesinger No. 63501, Summer 1985

Between an Unfree World and None Albert Wohistetter No. 63502, Summer 1985

American Economic Policy and the World Economy Martin Feldstein No. 63503, Summer 1985

New Zealand's Security Policy David Lange No. 63504, Summer 1985

Europe Without America: The Erosion of NATO Earl C. Ravenal No. 63505, Summer 1985

Arms Control: Crisis or

Compromise John Steinbruner No. 63506, Summer 1985

A View from Taipei Yu-ming Shaw No. 63507, Summer 1985

A View from Beijing Guo-cang Huan No. 63508, Summer 1985

The African Crisis: Drought and Debt

Henry F. Jackson No. 63509, Summer 1985

Appointment in Oujda Richard B. Parker No. 63510, Summer 1985

In addition to these selected articles, every article since our Spring 1983 issue is available

in reprint form. Reprints from this Winter 1985/86 issue may be ordered by titles only.



FOREIGN AFFAIRS

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Reflections on American Diplomacy Henry A. Kissinger No. 35104, October 1956

A World Awash in Grain Barbara Insel No. 63411, Spring 1985

The Public Mood: Nuclear Weapons and the U.S.S.R. Daniel Yankelovich & John Doble No. 63102, Fall 1984

The Underdeveloped and the Overdeveloped Margaret Mead No. 41108, October 1962

Origins of the Cold War Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. No. 46102, October 1967

Nuclear Strategy: Can There Be a Happy Ending? Fred Charles Ikl? No. 63407, Spring 1985

When Deterrence Fails Leon Wieseltier No. 63408, Spring 1985

The Defense Program: Buildup or Binge? Richard Stubbing No. 63409, Spring 1985

Nuclear Weapons and the Atlantic Alliance

McGeorge Bundy, George F. Kennan, Robert S. McNamara, Gerard Smith No. 60401, Spring 1982

The Bent Twig: A Note on Nationalism Isaiah Berlin

No. 51102, October 1972

Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken? Amory B. Lovins ory E

551 No. 55105, October 1976

Foreign Policy and the American Character Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. No. 62101, Fall 1983

The Nuclear Debate Robert W. Tucker No. 63101, Fall 1984

Time Bomb or Myth: The Population Problem Robert S. McNamara No. 62505, Summer 1984

Latin American Debt Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski No. 61206, Winter 1982/83

Latin American Debt: Act Two Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski No. 62102, Fall 1983

The Danger of Thermonuclear War Andrei Sakharov No. 61501, Summer 1983

Tropical Deforestation: A Global View Nicholas Guppy No. 62407, Spring 1984

India after Indira Paul H. Kreisberg No. 63410, Spring 1985

Nicaragua's Imperiled Revolution Arturo J. Cruz No. 61503, Summer 1983

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