Front Matter

Front MatterSource: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 68, No. 343 (Sep., 1973), pp. 513-514Published by: American Statistical AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2284769 .

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A^ o A JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN

S14 w STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 11 september 1973 volume 68 number 343

Applications D. J. PoIRi Piecewise Regression Using Cubic Splines . ...... I.

R. E. FOLsoM, B. G. GREENBRER, The Two Alternate Questions Randomized Response Model for Human Surveys 525 D. G. HORVITZ, J. R. ABERNATHY H. THEIL, Y. FRIEDMAN Regional per Capita Inomes and Income Inequalities: Point Estimates and

Their Standard Erro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 531 O. G. R GAN Statitical Reforms Accelerated by Sixth Censu Errors . . . . . . .. . . 540

R. A. GORDON Explicit Estimation of the Prevalence of Commitment to a Training School, to Age 18, by Race and by Sex . 547

P. B. SLATER Spatial and Temporal Effects in Residential Sal Prices . . . e . . . . 554 B. P. KLOTZ Oscillatory Growth in Three Nations 562

J. D. MERIWETHER Small Sample Properti of Distribut L BEtimators with Mi cifie Lag Structure. . . . . . * . . . . . . . * * . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

W. M. BASsiN A Bayesian Optimal Overhaul Interval Model for Weibull Restoration Process 575 D. H. EBBELER Measuring Permanent Component of a Series for Serially Correlated Obser-

vations ... . . .. . . . . . . 579 H. BUsRTEiN Close Approximations of Percentage Poins of Chi-Square Distribution aid

Poisson Confidence L t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 581 A. OTTEN Note on the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . 585

Theory and Methods W. J. BLOT, D. A. METE Sequential Experimental Design Proced odes 586 B. H. BEIC HORN, S. ZAcKs Sequential Search of an Optim Dosage, I . . J . . . . . . 594

J L. DEVOR Reconstructing A Noisy Markov Chain Using Near-Neighbor Rules . . 599 L. FisuER, J. W. VAN NEss Admissible Discriminant Annyysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 603

J. B. NEUHARDT, H. E. BRADLEY, Computational Results in Selecting Multi-Factor Experimental Arrangements 608 H. WX. HENNING

K.-H. LE Using Partialy Balanced Designs for the Half Sample Replication Method of Variance Estmati mo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 612

K. M. PATEL, D. G. HoEL A Nonparametric Test for Interaction in Factorial Experiments . . . . . . . 615 R. J. BHANsALt A Monte Carlo Coomparison of the Regression Method and the Spectral

Methods of Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .621 W. A. FULLER., G. E. BATT ES Transformatiois for Estimation of Linear Mode with Neste-Error Strut re 626

R. COTE, A. R. MASON, R. J. HAD u Minimum Bias Approximation of a General Regression Mod d e . . . 6 . . 33 R. L. SIELKEN, JR., H. 0. HARTLEY Two Linear Programming Algorithms for Unbiased Estimation of Linear

Models. ........................ .....639 D. K. GUILKEY, P. SCHMsIDT Estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Vector Autoregressive

Errors ...... .... ,.,,,, 642 P. A. V. B. SwAmy, J. S. MEHTA Bayesian Analysis of Error Component Regression Mode . . . . . . . 648 D. A. BooDNoFF D. A. PIERcE Bayes-Fiducial Inference for the Weibull Dist ribution .... . .. . . 659

J. F. LAWLESS Conditional Versus Unconditional Confidence Intervals for the Parameters of the Weibull Distribution .. . .. . . . . . .. . . .. . .. . . . . 665

G. M. KAUMANx, B. KING A Bayesian Analysis of Nonresponse in Dichotomous Pro *es . ...... 670 K. JoGDEo, R. BOHRE Some Simple Exampl and Counterexampl about the Existecee of Optim

Tets . . . . . . . . o . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .* 679 S. E. FIENBERG, P. W. HOLLAND Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities . . . . . . . . . 683

R. A. OLSHEN The Conditional Level of the F-Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 692 P.-E. LIN Procedures for Testing the Difference of Means with Incomplete Data . . . 699

G. K. BH ATcuARYA, R. A. JOHNSON On a Test of Independence in a Bivariate Exponential Distribution . * . 704 R. C. DHIV7A, J. G0RLAND How Many Classes in the Pearson Chi-Square Test? .....,.. 707

E. F. SCHUSTER Goodness-of-Fit Problem for Continuous Symmetric Distribution . . . . . . 713 G. E. NOETHER Some Simple Distribution-Free Confidence Interval fVr the Center of a

Sy etric Distribution ... ,.,.. , ...,..,,, 716 K. ALAm, K. M. L. SAXENA, Y. L. ToyG Optimal Coafiden Interval for a Ranke Par r . . . . . .... 720

F MIHa Variance of the MVUE for the Lognormal Men.n ..... ....... 726 L. R. LAMoTTr Non-Negative Quadratic Unbiased Estimation of Variance Components . . . 728

R. C. DAHIYA, A. J. GRoss Estimating the Zero Class from a Tr ineated Poisson Sample . . . . . . . . 731 J< W_ CAMPBELL, C. P. Tsozco The Asymptotic Distribution of M ma in BRivarite Samnl . - .- -. - 734

. I. NAs Power Sm Distributio .... ++. *. . . *,*, ......* . 740* H. A. Dxv Waitng Tme Paradox a Order Statsti . ........ . . . . . 743 C. R. BLYT Simpson's Paradox anld Mutually Favorable Evens. *..**......746

Book Rev ie w s.... * * . *+..... .........,..,. 747 Editorial CollaboraoXrs . >....* 514, 758

Corrigenda ... . 757 Technical Reports Available . a*.+*.*...+. 760



TECHNOMETRICS Volume 15, No. 4, November 1973

Some Comments on Cp ........................................ ..... . C. L. Mallows The Use of Individual Effects and Residuals in Fitting Equations to Daa . ............ Fred S. Wood Analysis of Residuals from Censored Data. ......... ...... w Wayne Nelson Testing for a Single Outlier in Simple Linear Regression ....... G. L. Tietjen, R. H. Moore and . J. Beckman Care and Handling of Univariate or Multivariate Outliers in Detecting Spurcosity-A Bayesian Approach . Irwin GCalman A Kolmxogorov-Smirnov Test for Censored Sa3mples.. . . Donald R. Barr and Teddy Davidson Fitting a Nonstationary Model of Ionospheric Motions ........ .... * . . Melvin J. Hinch and H. Montes An Adaptive Procedure for Selecting the Population with Largest Location Parameter ... . . . .. .

, , :..............................................;..* RPonald H. Randles, John S. Ramberg, and Robert V. Hogg A Comparison of Some Approximate F-Tests e . . James Davenport and Jack Webster A Generalization of the Poisson Distribution ... .. . P. C. Comat and G. C. Jain A Probelm of Ranking and Estimation wit Poisson Process .................. . KhursIeed Alam and James R. Thompson On the Occtirrence of n Successes withiin N Bernoulli Trials. . . - .. .. Bernard Sa rstein Computi-ng Maximtm Likelihood Estimates for the Mixed A. 0 V. Model Usi ig the W Transformation ................

.........A Ms.a.......... ........ William J. Hemmerle and H. 0. Hartley Modified "V" Mask Control Scheme . * James M. Lucas

The Efficiencies of Maximum Likelihood and Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimators of Fraction Defective in the Normal Case ................ ... .......... .Gerald G. Brown and Herbert C. Rutemiller

On the Estimation of Safe Life When the Underlying Life Distribution is Weibull ....................... J. F. Lawles The Reflected Weibull Distribution .AC oo.he.. n................................ . .A. Clo hen Interval Estnmation for the Two-Parameter Double Exonential Distribution . 9 * *

- Lee J. Bain and ax Engelhardt On Testing for Equalit of Two Availabilities ................ ......... - -Gerald f. Case atd John E. Hewett One-Sided Prediction Intervals to Contain at Least m Out of k Future Observation . ... Irv ng J. Hall and R. f. Prairie Sample Sizes Required for Two-Sided Comparisons of Two Treatments with a Control. .F. E. Steffens and Rosalie de Villiers

NOTES Discrimination Between the Log-Normal and the Weibull Distrihutions R. Dumonceaux and Charles E. Antle Weibull Skewness and Kurtosis as a F inction of the Shape Parameter.... ......... . Dwighi N. Roussu Control Chart Constants for Largest and Smallest in Sampling from a Normal Distribution using Generalized Burr

Distribution.Joh ................ ............ Jon A. Austin, Jr.

Book Reviews Ltters e Editor Erratn Editorial Collaborators Index to Volume 15, 1973

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J^ o A i& JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN

J A S A september 1973 volume 68 number 343

Applications Piecewise Regression Using Cubic Splines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DALE J. POIRIER 515 The Two Alternate Questions Randomized Response Model for Human Surveys .........

............ .................. .RALPH E. FOLSOM, BERNARD G. GREENBERG, DANIEL G. HORVITZ AND JAMES R. ABERNATHY 525 Regional per Capita Incomes and Income Inequalities: Point Estimates and Their Standard Errors .

. ........................................ HENRi TIIEIL AND YORAM FRIEDMAN 531 Statistical Reforms Accelerated by Sixth Census Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OPAL G. REGAN 540 An Explicit Estimation of the Prevalence of Commitment to a Training School, to Age 18, by Race and by Sex . ROBERT A. GORDON 547 Spatial and Temporal Effects in Residential Sales Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAUL B. SLATER 554 Oscillatory Growth in Three Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BENJAMIN P. KLOTZ 562 Small Sample Properties of Distributed Lag Estimators with Misspecified Lag Structure . . . . . . . . JACOB D. MERRIWETHER 568 A Bayesian Optimal Overhaul Interval Model for the Weibull Restoration Process Case . . . . . . . . . . . WILLIAM M. BASSIN 575 Measuring the Permanent Component of a Series for Serially Correlated Observations . . . . . . . . . . . DONALD H. EBBELER 579 Close Approximations of Percentage Points of the Chi-Square Distribution and Poisson Confidence Limits . . . HERmAN BURSTEIN 581 Note on the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient . . . . . ......................... . A.OTTEN 585

Theory and Methods Sequential Experimeiltal Design Procedures ... .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WILLIAM J. BLOT AND DUANE A. MEETER 586 Sequential Search of an Optimal Dosage, I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. H. EICHHORN AND S. ZACKS 594 Reconstructing A Noisy Markov Chain Using Near-Neighbor Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JAY L. DEVORE 599 Admissible Discriminant Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LLOYD FISHER AND JOHN W. VAN NESS 603 Computational Results in Selecting Multi-Factor Experimental Arrangements . ........................................... ...

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JOHN B. NEUHARDT, HUGH E. BRADLEY AND RICHARD W. HENNING 608 Using Partially Balanced Designs for the Half Sample Replication Method of Variance Estimation . . . . . . . . KOK-HUAT LEE 612 A Nonparametric Test for Interaction in Factorial Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . KANTILAL M. PATEL AND DAVID G. HOEL 615 A Monte Carlo Comparison of the Regression Method and the Spectral Methods of Prediction . . . . . . . . . . R. J. BHANSALI 621 Transformations for Estimation of Linear Models with Nested-Error Structure . . . . WAYNE A. FULLER AND GEORGE E. BATTESE 626 Minimum Bias Approximation of a General Regression Model . . . . . . . . . . . . R. COTE, A. R. MANSON AND R. J. HADER 633 Two Linear Programming Algorithms for Unbiased Estimation of LineaI Models . . . . . R. L. SIELKEN, JR. AND H. 0. HARTLEY 639 Estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Vector Autoregressive Errors . . . . DAVID K. GUILKEY AND PETER SCHMIDT 642 Bayesian Analysis of Error Components Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P. A. V. B. SWAMY AND J. S. MEHTA 648 Bayes-Fiducial Inference for the Weibull Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DAVID A. BOGDANOFF AND DONALD A. PIERCE 659 Conditional Versus Unconditional Confidence Intervals for the Parameters of the Weibull Distribution . . . . . . . J. F. LAWLESS 665 A Bayesian Analysis of Nonresponse in Dichotomous Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . G. M. KAUFMAN AND BENJAMIN KING 670 Some Simple Examples and Counterexamples about the Existence of Optimum Tests . . . . KUMAR JOGDEO AND ROBERT BOHRER 679 Simultaneous Estimation of Multinomial Cell Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . STEPHEN E. FIENBERG AND PAUL W. HOLLAND 683 The Conditional Level of the F-Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RICHARD A. OLSHEN 692 Procedures for Testing the Difference of Means with Incomplete Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PI-ERH LIN 699 On a Test of Independence in a Bivariate Exponential Distribution . . . . . . G. K. BHATTACHARYYA AND RICHARD A. JOHNSON 704 How Many Classes in the Pearson Chi-Square Test? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RAM C. DAHIYA AND JOHN GURLAND 707 On the Goodness-of-Fit Problem for Continuous Symmetric Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EUGENE F. SCHUSTER 713 Some Simple Distribution-Free Confidence Intervals for the Center of a Symmetric Distribution . . . . . GOTTFRIED E. NOETHER 716 Optimal Confidence Interval for a Ranked Parameter . . . . . . . . . . . K. ALAM, K. M. LAL SAXENA AND YUNG LIANG TONG 720 Variance of the MVUE for the Lognormal Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FARHAD MEHRAN 726 On Non-Negative Quadratic Unbiased Estimation of Variance Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LYNN ROY LAMOTTE 728 Estimating the Zero Class from a Truncated Poisson Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RAM C. DAIIIYA AND ALAN J. GRoss 731 The Asymptotic Distribution of Maxima in Bivariate Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . JANET W. CAMPBELL AND CHRIS P. TSOKOs 734 Power Sum Distributions .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JOSEPH I. NAUS 740 Waiting Time Paradoxes and Order Statistics .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H. A. DAVID 743 Simpson's Paradox and Mutually Favorable Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . COLIN R. BLYTH 746

Book Reviews .747

Editorial Collaborators .514, 758

Corrigenda .757

Technical Reports Available. ............... .............760

Material in this JOUJRNAL is abstracted and indexed variously inl Journal of Economi,c Literature, Mathematics of Computations, Mathematical Reviews and Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts.



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APPLICATIONS

MICHAEL E. BORUTS AND GILBERT NESTEL: Response Bias in Reports of Father's Education and Socioeconomic Status

C. CHATFIELD AND G.J. GOODHARDT: A Consumer Purchasing Model with Erlang Inter-Purchase Times

W.G. COCHRAN: Experiments for Nonlinear Functions EDMUND A. GEHAN AND M. M. SIDDIQUI: Simple Regression Methods

for Survival Time Studies DAVID S. HUANG: Short-Run Instability in Single-Family Housing

Starts PETER JAGERS: How Many People Pay Their Tram Fares? JOHNY K. JOHANSSON: A Generalized Logistic Function with an

Application to the Effect of Advertising DOUGLAS KELKER: A Random Walk Epidemic Simulation F.E. KOBRIN: Household Headship and Its Changes in the United

States, 1940-1960 SEYMOUJR SUDMAN AND NORMAN M. BRADBURN: Effects of Time and

Memory Factors on Response in Surveys MERLE W. TATE AND LEON A. HYER: Inaccuracy of the X2 Test of

Goodness of Fit When Expected Frequencies Are Small EDWARD 0. THORP: Non-Random Shuffling with Applications to the

Game of Faro A.J. YEATS: An Evaluation of the Predictive Ability of the FRB

Sensitive Price Index

THEORY AND METHODS

TAKESHI AMEMIYA: Regression Analysis When the Variance of the Dependent Variable Is Proportional to the Square of Its Expectation

D.W. BALMER, M. BOULTON AND R.A. SACK: Optimal SolUtioTns in Parameter Estimation Problems for the Cauchy Distribution

DAVID P. BARON: Point Estimation and Risk Preferences R.J. BECKMAN AND H.J. TRUSSELL: The Distribution of an Arbitrary

Studentized Residual and the Effects of Updating in Multiple Regression

AGNES BERGER AND RUTH Z. GOLD: Note on Cochran's Q-Test for the Comparison of Correlated Proportions

DONALD A. BERRY AND MILTON SOBEL: An Improved Procedure for Selecting the Better of Two Bernoulli Populations

K.O. BOWMAN AND L.R. SHENTON: Remarks on the Distribution of -Xi in Sampling from a Normal Mixture, and Normal Type A Distribution

RAJ S. CHHIKARA AND J. LEROY FOLKS: Estimation of the Inverse Gaussian Distribution Function

W.K. CHIU: Some Comments on a Paper by Duncan J.D. CHURCH AND E. BENTON COBB: A Modified Spearman Estima-

tor of a Location or Scale Parameter KENNETH 0. COGGER: Specification Analysis WILLIAM JAY CONOVER: On Methods of Handling Ties in the Wil-

coxon Signed-Rank Test

BRADFORD R. CRAIN: A Note on Density Estimation Using Ortho- gonal Expansions

MORRIS H. DEGROOT: Doing What Comes Naturally: Interpreting a Tail Area as a Posterior Probability or as a Likelihood Ratio

ALAN R. DYER: Discrimination Procedures for Separate Families of Hypotheses

ALAN R. DYER: Hypothesis Testing Procedures for Separate Families of Hypotheses

JONAS H. ELLENBERG: The Joint Distribution of the Standardized Least Squares Residuals from a General Linear Regression

EDWARD L. FROME, MICHAEL H. KUTTNER AND JOHN J. BEAUCHAMP: Regression Analysis of Poisson-Distributed Data

M.R. GAREY AND F.K. HWANG: Isolating a Single Defective Using Group-Testing

D.V. GOKHALE: Approximating Discrete Distributions, with Applications

CHIEN-PAI HAN: Double Sampling with Partial Information on Auxiliary Variables

BERNARD HARRIS AND ANDREW P. SoMs: Properties of the General- ized Incomplete Modified Bessel Distributions with Applications to Reliability Theory

B. HARRIS AND A.P. SoMs: The Reliability of Systems of Independent Parallel Components When Some Components Are Repeated

F.K. HwANG: On Finding a Single Defective in Binomial Group Testing

EDI KARNI AND ISHAY WEISSMAN: A Consistent Estimator of the Slope in a Regression Model with Errors in the Variables

GARY G. KOCH: An Alternative Approach to Multivariate Response Error Models for Sample Survey Data with Applications to Esti- mators Involving Sub-Class Means

HELENA CHMURA KRAEMER: Improved Approximation to the Non- Nu-ll Distributioni of the Correlation Coefficient

CHARLES E. LAND: Standard Confidence Limits for Linear Functions of the Normal Mean and Variance

FRED C. LEONE AND EFFAT MOUSSA-HAMOUDA: Relative Efficiencies of 'O-Blue' Estimators in Simple Linear Regression

FARHAD MEHRAN: Variance of the MVUE for the Lognormal Mean J.S. MEHTA AND P.A.V.B. SWAMY: Bayesian Analysis of a Bivariate

Normal Distribution with Incomplete Observations JOSEPH I. NAUS: Power Sum Distribution KASHINATH D. PATIL: Interaction Test for Three Dimensional Con-

tingency Tables RICHARD ROYALL AND JAY HERSON: Robust Estimation in Finite

Populations I RICHARD ROYALL AND JAY HERSON: Robust Estimation in Finite

Populations II: Stratification on a Size Variable HARDEO SAHAI AND R.L. ANDERSON: Confidence Regions for

Variance Ratios of Random Models for Balanced Data STEVE SELVIN: Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Truncated

or Censored Poisson Distribution EMIL SPJ0TVOLL AND MICHAEL R. STOLINE: An Extension of the

T-method of Multiple Comparison to Include the Cases with Unequal Sample Sizes

STEPHEN M. STIGLER: The History of Robust Estimation EDWARD H. WOLF AND JOSEPH I. NAUS: Tables of Critical Values

for a k-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Statistic DOUGLAS A. WOLFE: Some General Results about Uncorrelated

Statistics



A-tJOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN

j STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION september 1973 volume 68 number 343

Coordinating Editor

ROBERT FERBER

University of Illinois Chicago Circle, Box 6905 Chicago, Illinois 60680

Assistant to the Editor

SUSAN SHELDON MIER

Theory and Methods Editor

NORMAN L. JOHNSON

Department of Statistics University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514

Applications Editor

ROBERT FERBER

Book Review Editor MORRIs H. DEGROOT Department of Statistics Carnegie-Mellon University Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213

Editorial Assistants BEATRICE GRABOWSKI ANN HACKNEY KIMBALL LADIEN KATHERINE TKACHYK

Assoclate Editors

Theory and Methods

TAKESHI AMEMIYA, Stanford U. DAVID F. ANDREWS, Univ. of

Toronto JOHN M. CHAMBERS, Bell Telephone

Labs. MORRIS H. DEGROOT, Carnegie-

Mellon Univ. WILLIAM ERICSON, U. of Michigan STEPHEN E. FIENBERG, Univ. of

Minn. LEON J. GLESER, Purdue Univ. MAX HALPERIN, Dept. of Health,

Educ. & Welfare JOHN A. HARTIGAN, Y'ale Univ. DAVID V. HINKLEY, U. of Minn. DAVID G. HOEL, Nat'l Inst. of En-

vironmental Health Sci. JOSEPH B. KADANE, Carnegie-

Mellon Univ. J. KMENTA, Univ. of Mich. SAMUEL KOTZ, Temple Univ.

BARRY H. MARGOLIN, Yale Univ. DAVID S. MOORE, Purdue Univ. D. A. RELLES, Rand Corp. JOHN E. ROLPH, Rand Corp. RICHARD M. ROYALL, Johns Hop-

kins Univ. P. K. SEN, Univ. of N.C. L. R. SHENTON, Univ. of Georgia GORDON D. SIMONS, Univ. of N.C. STEPHEN STIGLER, Univ. of Wis. PAUL SWITZER, Imperial College,

London ROBERT L. WINKLER, Indiana U. INVITED PAPERS

EDWIN L. CROW, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Boulder

Applications DENNIS J. AIGNER, U. of Wis. H. M. BLALOCK, JR., Univ. of

Washington RAYMOND 0. COLLIER, U. of Minn. MARTIN DAVID, U. of Wis.

WAYNE A. FULLER, Iowa State Univ.

THOMAS GAVETT, Bureau of Labor Statistics

ROBERT W. HODGE, Univ. of Calif., Los Angeles

GORDON KAUFMAN, M.I.T. PHILIP MCCARTHY, Cornell Univ. ROGER H. MOORE, Los Alamos

Scientific Lab. BERNARD S. PASTERNACK, New

York Univ. Med. Center DANA QUADE, Univ. of NC. GORDON RAUSSER, Univ. of Calif.,

Davis RICHARD ROLL, Carnegie-Mellon

Univ. MICHAEL E. TARTER, U. of Calif.,

Berkeley

INVITED PAPERS

S. JAMES PRESS, Yale Univ.

Section Publication Liaison Officers

ROBERT J. MONROE, North Caro- lina State University, Biometrics Section

ALVIN J. SILK, Massachusetts In- stitute of Technology, Business & Economic Statistics Section

SEYMOUR SELIG, Office of Naval Research, Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences

MONROE LERNER, Johns Hopkins University, Social Statistics Sec- tion

JOSEPH M. CAMERON, National Bureau of Standards, Statistical Computing Section

EDWARD J. DUDEWICZ, University of Rochester, Section on Training

ADVERTISING: Write to Assistant to the Editor, University of Illinois, Chicago Circle, Box 6905, Chicago, Illinois 60680.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: Send to American Statistical Association, 806 15th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005.

RATES: $25.00 per year worldwide. Current single copy price, $6.50. Prices for back issues available on request.

CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Send new address with zip code and address label from JASA to American Statistical Association, 806 15th Street, NW., Washington, D.C. 20005. Allow eight weeks.

PUBLISHED: Quarterly by the American Statistical Association. Business Office: 806 15th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005. Printed by Lancaster Press, Inc., Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Editorial Office: University of Illinois,

Chicago Circle, Box 6905, Chicago, Illinois 60680. Second class postage paid at Washington, D.C. and at additional mailing offices.

COPYRIGHT: 1973 by the American Statistical Association. Although JASA is copyrighted, any articles written by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain and not covered by the copyright.



American Statistical Association 806 15th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005

Organized November 27, 1839, Incorporated 1841

THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION is a scientific and educational organization. Its membership is not confined to professional statisticians but includes economists, business executives, research directors, government officials, university professors, and others who are seriously interested in the application of statistical methods to practical problems, in the development of more useful methods, and in the improvement of basic statistical data. Engineers, mathematicians, biologists, actuaries, sociologists, psychologists, and representatives of many other professions are included in the membership of the Association.

Board of Directors

President

CLIFFORD HILDRETH, University of Minnesota

President-Elect

JEROME CORNFIELD, George Washington University

Past President

WILLIAM H. SHAW, E. L. du Pont de Nemours & Company

Executive Director and Secretary-Treasurer

FRED C. LEONE, ASA, Washington, D. C.

Vice Presidents T. W. ANDERSON (1971-73), Stanford University WILLIAM KRUSKAL (1972-74), University of Chicago LESLIE KISH (1973-75), University of Michigan

Directors GEORGE H. BROWN (1973-75), The Conference Board JOSEPH M. CAMERON (1973-75), National Bureau of Standards EVELYN KITAGAWA (1973-75), University of Chicago GOTTFRIED E. NOETHER (1971-73), University of Connecticut MARVIN A. SCHNEIDERMAN (1972-74), National Cancer Institute MARTIN B. WILK (1973-74), American Telephone & Telegraph

Company

Members of the Council LEONALL C. ANDERSEN (1972-73) WILLIAM WASSERMAN (1972-73) WALLACE R. BLISCHKE (1972-73) BERNARD CAROL (1973-74) HERBERT T. DAVID (1972-73) OLIVE J. DuNN (1972-73) CHARLES W. DUNNETT (1973-74) ROBERT M. ELASHOFF (1973) ROBERT FERBER, Editor, Journal of ASA IVOR FRANCIS (1973-74) DONALD A. GARDINER, Editor, Technomet-

rics

JEAN D. GIBBONS (1972-73) JAMES E. GRIZZLE (1972-73) HAROLD A. GROSSMAN (1973-74) WILLIAM C. GUENTHER (1972-73) H. LEON HARTER (1972-73) ROBERT V. HOGG (1973-74) DAVID C. HURST (1972-73) DAVID L. KAPLAN (1972-73) LEO KATZ (1972-73) LESLIE KOSKA (1972-73) ELI S. MARKS (1972-73) KENNETH W. MASTERS (1972-73)

JOHN W. MCCLOSKEY (1973-74) DONALD F. MORRISON, Editor, The

American Statistician H. DONALD MOSS (1973-74) JEAN NAMIAS (1972-73) HERBERT E. NEIL, JR. (1973-74) ROBERT L. ORR (1973-74) DAVID S. SALSBURG (1973-74) JAMES G. C. TEMPLETON (1973-74) OTTo TOMASEK (1972-73) KENNETH T. WALLENIUS (1973-74) RAY A. WALLER (1973-74) JANE WORCESTER (1972-73)

1973 Section Chairmen RICHARD G. CORNELL, University of

Michigan, Biometrics Section THEODORE COLTON, Harvard University

Medical School, Biopharmaceutical Sub- section

HORACE J. DEPODWIN, Rutgers University and Horace J. DePodwin Associates, Business & Economic Statistics Section

DONALD G. MORRISON, Columbia Univer- sity, Subsection on Statistics in Marketing

GERALD J. LIEBERMAN, Stanford University, Section on Physical & Engineering Sciences

THEODORE D. WOOLSEY, National Center for Health Statistics, Social Statistics Section

JOHN M. CHAMBERS, Bell Laboratories, Statistical Computing Section

ROBERT V. HoGG, University of Iowa, Section on Training

RICHARD B. McHUGH, University of Minnesota, Subsection on Teaching of Statistics in the Health Sciences

Annual Dues Regular Membership (Residents of

U. S. and Territories, Canada, APO and FPO addresses and North Americans on overseas assignment) .................. $20.00*

Residents outside North America (not including Americans or Canadians on overseas assignment) ..............I.......... 15.00

Student Membership (full-time students only) ......... ....... 9.0

Student Affiliate (full-time under- graduate students only) ........ 2.00

Corporate Membership . .. 200.00* Technometrics (special member

rate) . ............... 10.00

* Includes subscription to the Journal of American Statistical Association and to The American Statistician.

For further information about the Association and membership application forms, write the Secretary, 806 15th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005.

Corporate Members American Telephone & Telegraph Co. Bank of America Bell Laboratories California Texas Oil Corp. Conference Board Deere & Co. Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. Eastman Kodak Co.

Ford Motor Co. General Motors Corp. International Business Machines Corp. Int'l Ladies' Garment Workers' Union Arthur D. Little, Inc. Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. Millersville State College, Pa. National Association of Manufacturers Procter & Gamble Co.

Radio Corporation of America Sears, Roebuck & Co. Southern Methodist University Sun Oil Co. Tobacco Institute, Inc., United States Steel Corp. West Chester State College, Pa. Western Electric Co., Inc. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Managing Director: EDGAR M. BISGYER Administrative Assistant: JEAN H. SMITH



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FROM WILEY-INTERSCIENCE Concepts and Methods in Discrete Event Digital Simulation By George S. Fishman, Yale University This book is the first to integrate modeling, programming, and statistical considerations into a balanced, step-by- step treatment of discrete event digital simulation. Fol- lowing the introduction, the author describes system and model concepts, then discusses simulation techniques, programming considerations, pseudo-random number generation, methods of generating stochastic variates, maximum likelihood estimators of distributional parameters and, finally, problems inherent in analyzing simu- lations. Students and professionals in many fields will find this book to be a convenient and useful one-volume textbook and reference. 1973 400 pages $17.50

Nonparametric Statistical Methods By Myles Hollander, Florida State University, and Douglas A. Wolfe, The Ohio State University A volume in the Wiley Series in Probability and Mathe- matical Statistics, edited by R. A. Bradley, J. S. Hunter, D. G. Kendall, and G. S. Watson. Emphasizing procedures that are easy to understand and apply, this book highlights conditions for valid application of nonparametric techniques. The authors provide balanced coverage to tests and recent advances in robust estimation and multiple comparison procedures, and draw upon interesting examples from many disciplines including astronomy, biology, criminology, education, engineering, psychology, sociology and space science. Extensive tables and charts for implementing the procedures are also included. 1973 503 pages $18.95

Linear Statistical Inference and its Applications Second Edition By C. Radhakrishna Rao, Indian Statistical Institute As in the first edition, the aim of this edition is to provide in a single volume a full discussion of the wide range of statistical methods useful for consulting statisticians. At the same time, the author presents in a rigorous manner the mathematical and logical tools employed in deriving statistical procedures. This edition includes different types of generalized inverses, unified theory of linear estimation, MINQUE theory of variance components, the law of the iterated logarithm and sequential tests with power one, analysis of dispersion with structural parameters, discrimination between composite hypotheses, and theorems on characteristic functions. New exercises and complements have been added. 1973 608 pages $22.50

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Characterization Problems in Mathematical Statistics By A. M. Kagan and Yu V. Linnik, Steklov Institute of Mathematics, Leningrad, and C. Radhakrishna Rao, Indian Statistical Institute A volume in the Wiley Series on Probability and Mathe- matical Statistics, edited by R. A. Bradley, J. S. Hunter, D. G. Kendall, and G. S. Watson. This new book provides the first full length treatment of the characterization of probability distributions through the properties of statistics. The primary concern is with the analytical theory of characterization problems and their connection with various areas of mathematical statistics such as the theory of estimation, the testing of hypotheses, the role of the normal distribution in statistical inference, and the study of hypothetical structural variables through observable variables. Most of the results are recent and of fundamental importance, and will prove especially useful to specialists and advanced students in probability theory and mathematical statistics. 1973 528 pages (approx.) In Press

Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions By Joseph L. Fleiss, State of New York Department of Mental Hygiene A volume in the Wiley Series in Probability and Mathe- matical Statistics, edited by R. A. Bradley, J. S. Hunter, D. G. Kendall, and G. S. Watson. This book presents a thorough account of practical issues in the comparison of rates and proportions, including study design, assessment of statistical significance, estimation of degree of association, and the effects and control of misclassification errors. The author has taken a stand on such controversial issues as the use of the continuity correction, the choice of a proper method of association, and the advantages of matching; he never- theless has been careful to give both sides of these argu- ments. All of the mathematical methods presented can be applied using only a desktop calculator. 1973 223 pages $12.95

Applications of the Theory of Distributions By Romulus Cristescu and Gheorghe Marinescu, both of the University of Bucharest, Romania This book is a modern, rigorous account of the essentials of distribution theory with an account of a wide range of application. It is uniformly written and is aimed at scien- tists to whom the subject might be useful. Contents: Vector Spaces and the Notion of Distribution; Operations on the Distributions; Differential Equations and Integral Equations; Some Applications in Physics; Partial Differential Equations; Applications to the Prob- ability Theory; Applications to Linear Dynamic Systems; References. 1973 227 pages In Press

WILEY- INTERSCIENCE a division of JOHN WILEY & SONS, Inc. 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016 In Canada: 22 Worcester Road, Rexdale, Ontario Prices subject to change without notice.



DITORIAL COLLABO

SIDNEY ADDELMAN, SUNY, Buffalo J.N. ADICHIE, Univ. of Nigeria A.A. AFIFI, Univ. of Calif., L.A. JOHN AITCHISON, Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland M.A. AITKIN, Macquarie Univ. S. CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHT, Ind. Univ. M.M. ALI, Univ. of Windsor HAYWARD R. ALKER, JR., MIT DAVID ALLING, Nat'l. Inst. of Health DONALD E. AMOS, Sandia Labs. RICHARD L. ANDERSON, Univ. of Ky. T.W. ANDERSON, Stanford Univ. D.F. ANDREWS, Univ. of Toronto, Canada FRANK J. ANSCOMB, Yale Univ. CHARLES E. ANTLE, Penn. State Univ. DON ARCHIBALD, Yale Univ. BARRY C. ARNOLD, Iowa State Univ. LEO A. AROIAN, Union Col. S. ARUNKUMAR, Univ. of Calif., L.A. JIM ARVESEN, Purdue Univ. A.C. ATKINSON, Imperial Col., England GEORGE J. ATTA, Nat'l. Inst. of Health C.L. ATWOOD, Haile Sellassie I. Univ. BARBARA BAILAR, U.S. Bureau of the Census WILLIAM R. BAILEY, U.S. Bur. of Labor Stat. PIETRO BALESTRA, Univ. of Fribourg RICHARD BARLOW, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley V.D. BARNETT, Univ. of Newcastle upon Tyne I. BARRODALE, Univ. of Liverpool, England CHRISTOPHER B. BARRY, Univ. of Fla. R.L. BASMANN, Texas A&M Univ. J.A. BATHER, Univ. of Sussex LEONARD E. BAUM, Inst. for Defense

Anaylsis B.M. BENNETT, Univ. of Hawaii R.J. BERAN, Univ. of Toronto AGNES BERGER, Columbia Univ. ROBERT H. BERK, Rutgers Univ. JOSEPH BERKSON, Mayo Clinic V.P. BHAPKAR, Univ. of Ky. R.M. BHATTACHARYA, Univ. of Ariz. CHRISTOPHER BINGHAM, Univ. of Minn. JOHN BISHOP, Inst. for Res. on Poverty YVONNE M.M. BISHOP, Children's Cancer

Res. Foundation, Inc. PETER BLOOMFIELD, Princeton Univ. J.R. BLUM, Univ. of N.M. PHILIP W. BLUMSTEIN, Univ. of Wash. COLIN BLYTH, Queen's Univ. RONALD G. BODKIN, Economic Council of

Canada EDGAR F. BORGATTA, Queens Col. K.O. BOWMAN, Oak Ridge Nat'l. Lab. NORMAN BRESLOW, Internat'l. Agcy. for Res.

on Cancer DAVID BRILLINGER, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley LYLE D. BROEMELING, Okla. State Univ. G.F. BROWN, JR., Ctr. for Naval Analyses,

Arlington, Va. MARK BROWN, Cornell Univ.

PHILIP J. BROWN, Imperial Col., England HANS BUHLMANN, Eidgenossishe Technische

Hochschule, Zurich WILLIAM G. BULGREN, Univ. of Kan. P.M. BURROWS, N.C. State Univ. LARRY CAHOON, Carnegie-Mellon Univ. CATHY CAMPBELL, Penn. State Univ. JAN M. CHAIKEN, RAND Corp. JOHN CHAMBERS, Bell Telephone Labs. L.K. CHAN, Univ. of Western Ontario RAU CHANG, Bell Telephone Labs. MIN-TE CHAO, Bell Telephone Labs. SAMPRIT CHATTERJEE, New York Univ. VICTOR CHEW, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture G.C. CHOW, Princeton Univ. CHARLES J. CICCHETTI, Univ. of Wis. VIRGINIA CLARK, Univ. of Calif., L.A. WILLIAM S. CLEVELAND, Bell Telephone

Labs. ANSLEY J. COALE, Princeton Univ. WILLIAM G. COCHRAN, Harvard Univ. A. CLIFFORD COHEN, JR., Univ. of Ga. ARTHUR COHEN, Rutgers Univ. JAMES S. COLEMAN, Johns Hopkins Univ. R. COLEMAN, Imperial Col., England THEODORE COLTON, Harvard Med. Sch. W.J. CONOVER, Kan. State Univ. R.M. CORMACK, N.Y. State Dept. of Health RICHARD CORNELL, Univ. of Mich. JEROMF, CORNFIELD, George Washington

Univ. THOMAS M. COVER, MIT JOHN G. CRAGG, Univ. of British Columbia ELLIOTT M. CRAMER, Univ. of N.C. JONATHAN D. CRYER, Univ. of Iowa DAVID H. CULVER, Univ. of Ky. LESLIE CURRY, Univ. of Toronto RALPH B. D'AGOSTINO, Boston Univ. H.E. DANIELS, Univ. of Birmingham F.N. DAVID, Univ. of Calif., Riverside HERBERT A. DAVID, Iowa State Univ. ROGER R. DAVIDSON, Cornell Univ. A.W. DAVIS, CSIRO, Adelaide, Australia C.M. DAYTON, Univ. of Md. MORRIS DEGROOT, Carnegie-Mellon Univ. FRANK DELEEUW, Urban Inst. D.B. DELURY, Univ. of Toronto DAVID L. DEMETS, Nat'l. Inst. of Health GEORGE DEMENIL, Princeton Univ. A.P. DEMPSTER, Harvard Univ. FRANK T. DENTON, McMaster Univ. THOMAS F. DERNBURG, Oberlin Col. PHOEBUS J. DHRYMES, Univ. of Calif., L.A. JAMES M. DICKEY, SUNY, Buffalo W. J. DIXON, Univ. of Calif., L.A. K. DOKSUM, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley J.B. DOUGLAS, Univ. of New South Wales NORMAN R. DRAPER, Univ. of Wis. WILLIAM N. DUMOUCHEL, Univ. of Mich. DAVID B. DUNCAN, Johns Hopkins Univ.

RICHARD 0. DUDA, Stanford Res. Inst. EDWARD J. DUDEWICZ, Ohio State Univ. DAVID B. DUNCAN, Johns Hopkins Univ. OTIS DUDLEY DUNCAN, Univ. of Mich. DOUGLAS M. DUNN, Bell Telephone Labs. OLIVE J. DUNN, Univ. of Calif., L.A. JAMES DURBIN, Univ. of London RICHARD M. DUVALL, Univ. of Tenn. ALAN DYER, Northwestern Univ. ROBERT G. ESTERLING, Sandia Labs. IDAVID L. EDGELL, U.S. Bur. of Labor

Statistics EUGENE S. EDGINGTON, Univ. of Calgary,

Alberta BRADLEY EFRON, Imperial Col. CHURCHILL EISENHART, Nat'l. Bur. of Stcls. ROBERT M. ELASHOFF, Univ. of Calif. Med.

Sch. W.A. ERICSON, Univ. of Mich. MICHAEL K. EVANS, Chase Econometric

Assoc. WILLIAM B. FAIRLEY, Harvard Univ. J.U. FARLEY, Columbia Univ. ROGER H. FARRELL, Cornell Univ. R. FAWCETT; Eastern N.M. Univ PAUL J. FEDER, Gen'l. Elec. Co. WALTER T. FEDERER, Cornell Univ. IVAN P. FELLEGI, Statistics, Canada STEPHEN E. FIENBERG, Univ. of Minn. D.J. FINNEY, Univ. of Edinburgh N.I. FISHER, Univ. of N.C. GEORGE S. FISHMAN, Yale Univ. LESTER R. FRANKEL, Audits & Surveys Co.,

Inc. MARTIN R. FRANKEL, City Univ. of N. Y. M. FUSHIMI, Cornell Univ. JOHN GAITO, York Univ., Ontario JANOS GALAMBOS, Temple Univ. GEORGE H.K. GALE, Iowa State Univ. MICHAEL R. GAREY, Bell Labs. STUART GARFINKLE, Temple Univ. JOHN J. GART, Nat'l. Cancer Inst. JOSEPH L. GASTWIRTH, George Washington

Univ. F. GEBHARDT, Gesellschaft flir Mathematik

und Datenverarbeitung EDMUND A. GEHAN, Univ. of Texas SEYMOUR GEISSER, Univ. of Minn. ARTHUR GEOFFRION, Univ. of Calif., L.A. STEPHEN L. GEORGE, Univ. of Texas,

Houston MALAY GHOSH, Indian Stat. Inst. SAKTI P. GHOSH, IBM Res. Labs. DENNIS C. GILLILAND, Mich. State Univ. JAY H. GLASSER, Univ. of Texas LEON J. GLESER, Educ. Testing Serv. PAUL GLICK, U.S. Bur. of the Census M.D. GODFREY, Imperial Col., London G.H. GOLUB, Stanford Univ. I.J. GOOD, Va. Polytechnic Inst.

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