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FOREIGN

AFFAIRS SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000

The Folly of Arms Control

Jonathan Schell on Nuclear Proliferation vs. Abolition

Out-of-Control Immigration JAMES GOLDSBOROUGH

?fricas Crisis of Leadership Zimbabwe as Exhibit A

ROBERT ROTBERG

A Chilean Model for Russia JOS? PINERA

MISSILE-DEFENSE MADNESS Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov

Plus Shoring Up the U.N. ^William Luers

Living with Public Apathy by James Lindsay A Fresh Start for Foreign Aid by Carol Lancaster and

Understanding Hugo Chavez by Kenneth Maxwell

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FOREIGN

AFFAIRS

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000

VOLUME 79, NUMBER 5

Editor s Note v

Comments

The New Apathy James M. Lindsay 2 Americans are not isolationist; they're uninterested. So foreign policy is neglected, presidents find it hard to lead, and the noisy few trump the quiet many.

Choosing Engagement William H. Luers 9 The U.N.'s voluble critics fret that it threatens American sovereignty. In fact, a

strengthened U.N. system will both serve America's interests and promote its ideals.

The Missile-Defense Mistake Igorlvanov 15 Washington's plans for a national missile-defense system threaten the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty?the foundation of international strategic stability.

Essays

The Folly of Arms Control Jonathan Schell 22 Ten years after the end of the Cold War, nuclear danger is rising. Despite the end of the struggle in whose name the great nuclear arsenals were built, Washington now seeks to stop proliferation while holding on to its own arsenal indefinitely. But as nuclear restrictions falter?battered by India's and Pakistan's tests, Iraq's defiance, North Korea's missiles, and the U.S. missile-defense plan?the absence

of a middle ground becomes stark. Holding on to nuclear arms is not a deterrent but a "prolif?rant" that goads others to join the club. Arms control has become a

way of avoiding a fateful choice: a world of uncontrolled proliferation or a world with no nuclear weapons at all.

[1]



Contents

Africa's Mess, Mugabe's Mayhem Robert!. Rotberg Venal leaders are the curse of Africa, and Robert Mugabe is a walking reminder of how much damage they can do. No mere thug like Idi Amin, the gifted Mugabe created modern Zimbabwe and then robbed it of its enormous potential. The comparatively well-run, well-off country that he inherited is now a corruption-riddled, autocratic mess sent into economic free fall by its kleptomaniacal president's whims?including tampering with elections, sending troops to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and hiring goons to invade white-owned farms. An indulgent world contributed to

Mugabe's sense of invincibility. Instead, he and his ilk should be ostracized.

A Chilean Model for Russia Jos? Pinera Russia does not need a Pinochet, but it does need the Chilean economic model. For Russia to grow at

self-sustaining annual rates of seven to ten percent for a

decade or two?the only way it can pull itself out of poverty?it needs much more economic liberalization. Four reforms inspired by Chile's dramatic turnaround can help Russia out of its doldrums: pension privatization, tax reform, radical

deregulation of coddled industries, and the replacement of the ruble with the euro. The indispensable element is not a

strong four-star general but a team of

determined economic policymakers who know that freedom works.

Redesigning Foreign Aid Carol Lancaster The traditional goals of U.S. foreign aid?promoting U.S. security and fostering development

in poor countries?are no longer

as pressing after the Cold War.

Washington must revamp its approach to aid and address new, urgent priorities: shoring up peacekeeping efforts in such places as the Middle East and the Balkans;

easing the transition to globalization; tackling transnational environmental crises and diseases; and improving the quality of life for the world's neediest. This new

diplomacy will not only transform U.S. aid but bolster its relevance to American interests and values in a rapidly changing world.

Out-of-Control Immigration James Goldsborough With the U.S. economy soaring, few care that immigration to the United States is

at its highest absolute levels. But what happens when the economy falls back to earth? High-tech immigrant workers are already competing with Americans for jobs, while unskilled immigrant laborers are

becoming a

permanent under

class. High immigration is creating imbalances in education, income distribution,

employment, and welfare demands?as well as tensions between immigrants and

citizens and among the federal, state, and local governments. An economic slump will mean crisis. Congress and the White House need to cut back now.

Plaintiff's Diplomacy Anne-Marie Slaughter and David Bosco The ever more litigious nature of American society is starting to affect an

unexpected area: foreign policy. Increasing numbers of individuals, both American and foreign, are now using U.S. courts to defend their rights under international law in ways impossible just a few years ago. The plaintiffs range from Holocaust survivors to terrorist victims to the inhabitants of tropical rain forests; the defendants include multinational corporations, foreign officials, and even

governments. On the one hand, the trend is bringing to justice many long thought unaccountable. On the other, it is making the tricky process of American

diplomacy harder than ever.

[il] FOREIGN AFFAIRS - Volume79No.5



Contents

Reviews & Responses

The Long Shadow of Hugo Chavez Kenneth Maxwell 118 Richard Gott's In the Shadow of the Liberator offers a sympathetic?but unintentionally troubling?account of Venezuela's tough

new leader.

?fricas Ailing Giant MarcusMabry 123 This House Has Fallen brings stark new details to a familiar story: the legacy of

hatred, corruption, and mismanagement that brought Nigeria to its knees.

Recent Books on International Relations 128 Lucian W. Pye on Emperor Hirohito; Stanley Hoffmann on Fran?ois Mitterrand; Eliot A. Cohen on The Greatest Threat; Philip Zelikow on the Korean War; Kenneth

Maxwell on The Blood of Guatemala; L. Carl Brown on The Palestinian Hamas.

Letters to the Editor 153 Rwanda's ambassador on the silent West; Robert E. Hunter lauds nato

expansion; Natan Shklyar

on Russia's regions; and others.

Advice for the Next President Andrew]. Goodpaster 158 Nato's former supreme commander on the challenges of a transformed world.

Lurie's Foreign Affairs 162

The articles in Foreign Affairs do not represent any consensus of beliefs. We do not expect that readers will sympathize with all the sentiments they find here, for some of our writers will flatly disagree with others; but we hold that while keeping clear of mere vagaries Foreign Affairs can do more to inform American public opinion by a broad hospitality to divergent ideas than it can by identifying itself with one school. We do not accept responsibility for the views expressed in any

article, signed or unsigned, that appears in these pages. What we do accept is the responsibility forgiving them a chance to

appear. THE EDITORS

FOREIGN AFFAIRS- September/October 2000 [ 111 ]



FOREIGN AFFAIRS james f. HOGE, jr. Editor

Peter G. Peterson Chair

FAREED ZAKARiA Managing

Editor

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Associate Editors

WARREN BASS, HELEN FESSENDEN, JONATHAN D. TEPPERMAN

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Book Reviewers

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C A R N

ROM

NDOWMENT

REPAIRING THE REGIME Preventing the Spread off Weapons of Mass Destruction

Joseph Cirincione, editor

"Repairing the Regime is an invaluable resource and

timely contribution to the range of troubling

proliferation issues and strategies for addressing them,

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?Robert Manning, Council on Foreign Relations

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recent developments, both good and ill, concerning weapons of mass destruction. Its

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proliferation and arms control. Packed with creative analysis and usable policy

recommendations, Repairing the Regime will be of interest to scholars and

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This collection reflects the passionate debates of top international experts and

officials in the field, including Samuel Berger, Bill Richardson, Jayantha Dhanapala, Sha Zukang, Richard Butler, and Robert Gallucci.

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Comments

AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS

Demonstrators protest the return ofEli?n Gonz?lez to Cuba, Miami, January 6,2000

In foreign policy, as in the rest of life,

squeaky wheels get the grease. The New Apathy James M. Lindsay 2

Choosing Engagement William H. Luers 9 The Missile-Defense Mistake Igorlvanov 15



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WAYNE MILLER/MAGNUM PHOTOS

Hiroshima, 1945

Between Hiroshima and the

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arms to believing in their virtue. The Folly of Arms Control Jonathan Schell 22

Africa's Mess, Mugabe's Mayhem Robertl. Rotberg 47 A Chilean Model for Russia Jos? Pinera 62

Redesigning Foreign Aid Carol Lancaster 74 Out-of-Control Immigration James Goldsborough 89

Plaintiff's Diplomacy Anne-Marie Slaughter and David Bosco 102



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Multilateral Rules on Competition Policy: An Overview of the Debate This publication reviews the current debate on

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Missile Development and its Impact on Global Security This publication presents the panel discussion at

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This years World Development Report 2000/2001:

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CONTAINING NATIONALISM_ MICHAEL HECHTER Nationalism has become the most prevalent source of political conflict and violence in the world today, yet scholarship has provided scant guidance for

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THE MULTICULTURALISM OF FEAR JACOB! LEVY

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The Ballistic Missile Threat"

A Short Narrative of Missiles and Ballistic Missile Defense"

Chronology of U.S. National Missile Defense Programs"

Current and Past Cost Estimates"

The Impact of National Missile Defense on Strategic Relations with Russia"

NMD and Asia: Views from China, India, Pakistan, Japan, North and South Korea"

Europe and NMD: Views from the European Continent and the Role of Europe in NMD

Architecture"

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Reviews & Responses

AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS

Hugo Chavez, Caracas, Venezuela, December1998

Ch?vez, as Gott sees him, is a radical

revolutionary who will provide the

"antibodies" to combat globalization? the "disease" of the new millennium. The Long Shadow of Hugo Chavez Kenneth Maxwell 118

?fricas Ailing Giant MarcusMabry 123

Recent Books on International Relations 128

Letters to the Editor 153

Advice for the Next President Andrew]. Goodpaster 158

Luries Foreign Affairs 162



from Cambridge

Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics Roland Bleiker

This book examines a wide range of dissident

practices, from street protests to political poetry,

in an attempt to demonstrate that they are becom

ing an

increasingly important aspect of global

politics. The author draws on several case studies,

including an

analysis of the events that led to the

collapse of the Berlin Wall. The theoretical discus

sions focus on how people influence the course

of politics at a time when boundaries between

domestic and international spheres are

blurring.

Cambridge Studies in International Relations 70

0-521-77099-8 Hardback $59.95 0-521-77829-8 Paperback $22.95

Available in bookstores or from

Contesting Global Governance Multilateral Economic Institutions and Global Social Movements

Robert O'Brien, Anne Marie Goetz,

Jan Aart Sch?lte, and Marc Williams

The contest to shape global governance is increasingly

being conducted on a number of levels and among a

diverse set of actors. This book argues that increasing

engagement between international institutions and

sectors of civil society is producing a new form of

international organization. The authors study the

relationship between the IMF, World Bank, and

World Trade Organisation, and environmental, labor,

and women's movements, providing a rich analysis of

the institutional response to social movement pressure.

Cambridge Studies in International Relations 71

0-521-77315-6 Hardback $54.95 0-521-77440-3 Paperback $19.95

Cambridge UNIVERSITY PRESS

40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211 Call toll-free 800-872-7423 Web site: www.cup.org AmEx/MasterCard/VISA accepted. Prices subject to change.

EDUCATORS:

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"There is no better example of. . . the contribution that. . . our think tanks (make

to) our public policy process . . . than the Institute for International Economics. "

?Lawrence Summers, US Secretary of the Treasury.

NEW FROM THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets Morris Goldstein, Graciela Kaminsky, and Carmen Reinhart

Ever since the European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis

of 1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, there has been

heightened interest in early warning signals of financial crises. This timely and

pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive battery of empirical tests on the

performance of alternative early warning indicators for emerging-market econo

mies that should prove useful in the construction of a more effective global

warning system. Assessing Financial Vulnerability comes on the eve of impend

ing changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines

how it reacts to financial crises.

June 2000. 150 pages. ISBN: 0-88132-237-7. $15.95.

"/ am a skeptic on the feasibility of developing early-warning indicators of financial crises. Given my skepti

cism, I am struck by what a convincing case the authors manage to make. Their study is careful, comprehensive

and nuanced. It is the best available effort to build an 'early warning system \ "?Barry Eichengreen, George C.

Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis Stephan Haggard

The Asian crisis has sparked a thoroughgoing reappraisal of current

international financial norms, the policy prescriptions of the International

Monetary Fund, and the adequacy of the existing financial architecture. To

draw proper policy conclusions from the crisis, however, it is necessary to

understand its domestic politics. In this study, political scientist Stephan

Haggard focuses on the most seriously affected countries?Indonesia, Korea,

Malaysia, and Thailand?while also drawing lessons from those economies, such as Taiwan, that escaped the most severe distress.

Haggard focuses on the political economy of the crisis, emphasizing the longer-run prob lems of moral hazard and corruption, the politics of crisis management and the political conse

quences of severe economic downturn. Looking forward, he focuses on two critical policy issues

changes in social safety nets in the crisis countries and efforts at corporate and financial restructuring.

August 2000. 165 pages (approx.). ISBN: paper 0-88132-283-0. $17.95.

"Well-researched, carefully documented, and clearly written . . . It should prove of considerable interest to

students of Asian political economy and. . . to a broader audience of economists, political scientists, and

policymakers . . . "?Robert L. Ayres, Senior Social Scientist, the World Bank

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Fax (703) 661-1501 * Visit our online bookstore at www.iie.com *



New publications from

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

A New Beginning Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship

by Bruce Stokes

New governments in Washington and Tokyo have a

unique opportunity to reinvigorate the U.S.-Japan rela

tionship and to accelerate the pace and redirect the nature

of change in the Japanese economy by creating a U.S.

Japan "open marketplace" ? free of tariffs, with minimal

regulatory impediments and an increasing freedom to do

business.

ISBN 087609-273-3/$10.00/July 2000

China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control

Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship

by Robert Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts

China has been largely overlooked in the global nuclear

equation ?for too long, argue the authors of this Council

report, which provides the essential context for under

standing China's modernization program and its impact on U.S. interests. It also offers some guidelines for U.S.

policy and considers the alternatives ahead for China's

force modernization.

ISBN 087609-272-5/$10.00/April 2000

Council books available through

Brookings Institution Press

www.brookings.edu or 1-800-275-1447

Full text of recent papers available at www.cfr.org

The United States, China, and

Japan, by Neil Silver

First Steps Toward a Constructive

U.S. Policy In Colombia, by Bob

Graham and Brent Scowcroft

Promoting Sustainable Economies in the Balkans

Independent Task Force Report Steven Rattner, chairman

Michael B.G. Froman, project chair

This task force report argues that economic

reconstruction alone will not be sufficient

to bring long-term peace and stability to

the Balkans. The report offers a balanced

assessment of what both the international

community and the Balkan countries must

do to build sustainable economies in the

region. ISBN 087609-267-9/$7.00/February 2000



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