Frost & Sullivan: Mega Trend 2020 Global Smart Grids

Mega Trends 2020: Perspective on Global Smart Grid

Ravi Krishnaswamy

Vice President – Energy Practice

Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific

Global Mega Trends 2020

3

4

Top Mega Trends for Next Decade

Urbanization:

Increasing pace of urbanization will lead to integration

of core city centers with suburbs and daughter cities,

resulting in expanding city limits. This will have massive

impact on the future of mobility, working life and

societies. Three concepts of urbanization will emerge:

Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors.

• Mega Cities: Integration of core city with suburbs and

housing more than 5 million people.

• Mega Regions: Integration of two or more cities or

expansion of city to join with adjoining daughter cities

to form Mega Regions, housing more than 15 million

Health, Wellness and Well-Being:

With smarter drugs, virtual hospitals and cyber documents,

the healthcare industry is poised for a radical change with

information technology taking the forefront in research and

development, diagnostics, and monitoring. In the future,

diagnostics will become less invasive, preventative, and

image-based. Medicines will be marketed as molecular and

personalized drug cocktails. Government will increase

healthcare spending from 15 percent in 2010 to 20 to 30

percent by 2050, thereby changing the landscape and

dynamics of the healthcare industry. Health, Wellness and

Well-Being will become the new value proposition of

companies across sectors and an important factor of

5

people.

• Mega Corridors: Urbanization corridors connecting

two or more Mega Cities or Mega Regions converging

to form Mega Corridors. These can be a 60-mile

distance and have a population of more than 25 million

living within the corridor.

SMART is the New Green:

With the advent of technology and infrastructure

development, there will be a shift from “GREEN” to the

“SMART” concept. Some of the SMART initiatives will

find their way into elements of energy, technology,

grids, cars, buildings, utilities and infrastructure. Energy

efficiency and zero emissions will be the basic premise

of such initiatives.

M65B-18

Innovating to Zero!:

A “Zero Concept” world with zero emissions, zero accidents,

zero fatalities, zero defects, and zero breaches of security

will be a reality in the future. Companies will shift focus and

develop products and technologies that “Innovate to Zero,”

such as zero-emission technologies including wind power,

Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR), Solar PV, and Third-

Generation Biofuels.

companies across sectors and an important factor of

differentiation and discussion.

Top Mega Trends (cont.)

Technology:

New technologies will spur the growth of multiple

innovative applications, changing the way we live,

communicate, conduct business and interact with

machines. Innovative technologies of the future,

coupled with satellite development and artificial

intelligence, will open a plethora of new business

models and new opportunities for growth.

SPACE JAM & Cyber Warfare:

E-Mobility:

More than 40 million electric two-wheelers and four-

wheelers will be sold annually around the globe in 2020.

E-Mobility, from electric cars to electric aircrafts, will

usher in a new set of players with new business models

offering an innovative and customized set of

infrastructure and technology solutions.

New Business Models:

6

SPACE JAM & Cyber Warfare:

These two very distinct Mega Trends are interrelated

and have synergetic opportunities. Space Jam

represents the opportunities expected from the launch

of more than 900 satellites in the next 10 years, about

15 percent more than those launched in the past 10

years, but with a big difference; about 40 to 50

percent of satellites launched in this decade will be for

civilian applications. China, the European Union and

Russia will launch their equivalent GNSS (Global

Navigational Satellite System).

M65B-18

New Business Models:

Next-generation business models will redefine future

business propositions and influence future technology

and product development. These business models will

not only reshape the landscape of the business

environment, but also influence industry dynamics.

Some of these evolving models are personalization,

car sharing, and “Pay by the Hour.”

Top Mega Trends (cont.)

Social and Economic:

Changing social trends in Generation Y, middle class

and women empowerment will usher in new

opportunities signaling the advent of customized

applications and innovative technologies. The next

level of social networking and geo socialization will

result in new trends of networking, digital marketing

and innovative ways of socializing, furthering the

evolution of interaction between individuals and

organizations. Companies will now look at new

economies “Beyond BRIC” and new outsourcing hot

spots for their business operations.

High-Speed Rail and Future Infrastructure

Development:

With about $41 billion expected to be pumped globally for

infrastructure projects (2005-2030), there will be a

tremendous improvement in the quality and operational

efficiency of sectors such as transport, power and water.

Emerging transportation corridors (e.g., Trans-Siberian

Rail, High-Speed Rail Corridors in the United States) will

lead to mushrooming of economic and technology clusters

along these corridors. These integrated hubs will be the

future centers of innovation, R&D and technical excellence,

attracting massive investment and government support.

7M65B-18

“Green” to be Replaced with “Smart”

Smart CitiesSmart

TechnologySmart

InfrastructureSmart

Hospitals

Smart MobilitySmart

BuildingsSmart Grids Smart Clouds

8

Smart Materials

Smart Bandages

Smart Phones Smart Meters

Top Ten Energy Market Trends and Technologies

99

Top 10 Technologies to Watch for in 2020

Wind Energy

Waste-to-energy

Energy Storage

Smart Grid

BioenergyTop 10 Technologies of the Future

Annual Power and Energy Outlook: Top 10 Technologies through 2020

10

Hydrogen & Fuel CellsUnconventional

Gas

Energy Management

Solar

Clean Coal Technologies

of the FutureFollowing are key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a

potential high ROI.

Global Smart Grids Market Head Winds

Impact due to uncertain economy – Smart Grid is still not a ‘must have’ for

utilities

Lack of large scale demonstration projects–

Very limited government ownership and initiative –

11

demonstration projects–Business model validation and technology proliferation is not

easy without large scale projects

ownership and initiative –Complex nature of the system

means a diffused ownership model is not helping market advancement

Connectivity gaps of key smart grid domains –

Communication technology, interoperability and security issues

slows down harmonious development

Global Smart Grids Market Push Factors

One solution different sizes and shapes –

Suitable for any utility or country irrespective of

maturity levels

Opportunity to Leap frog–Emerging economies can directly

Industry Collaboration to create new growth markets –

12

Emerging economies can directly create a smart utility

infrastructure

new growth markets –Commercial organizations forming

alliances to jointly develop products & tools and implement projects

Modular Concept – Ability to independently deploy and

latter integrate the systems, supports staggered

investment

Global Hotspots for Smart Grids

High level of grid reliability and need to further promote renewable integration post-

Fukushima. Smart City another major driver.

Very clear nationwide vision and roadmap for

smart grid. Potential investment of over $100 billion in next 20 years.

Test bed project involving all key components

EU commitment to 2020 emission targets, directives for internal electricity markets and integration of renewables are key drivers. Electric vehicles and smart cities are additional enablers. Regulatory disparities, lack of appropriate business models and economic difficulties major restraints

13

China’s State Grid Corporation plans to invest US$45 billion for smart grid technologies as a part of $250 billion upgrade to its

electrical infrastructure

Power distribution and retail companies leading the initiative. Smart City

and Smart Grid initiatives supported by governments and regulators (A$100 m

funding)

Brazil government mandated smart meters roll out to avoid energy theft and also improve

reliability ahead of major sporting events.

Renewable Energy boom and distribution automation

major factors

Home to major technology and market

innovations. Fragmented nature of utility sector

and decentralized decision making hinder commercial deployment

on large scale

another major driver. However utility monopoly could hamper customer

choice

Smart Grid Components

Smart Meters and Installation

Communication Systems and Networks

Meter Data Management

Customer Data and Program Management

Smart Meters and Installation

Communication Systems and Networks

Meter Data Management

Customer Data and Program Management

Power Curtailment Revenue

Home Area Network and Management

Smart Home Appliances

Power Curtailment Revenue

Home Area Network and Management

Smart Home Appliances

Advanced Metering

Infrastructure

Advanced Metering

Infrastructure

Demand ResponseDemand

Response

14

Distribution Automation

Substation Automation and Integration

Field Equipment

Distribution Automation

Substation Automation and Integration

Field Equipment

Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS)

High Voltage DC (HVDC)

Ultra High Voltage DC (UHV)

Grid Monitoring Systems

Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS)

High Voltage DC (HVDC)

Ultra High Voltage DC (UHV)

Grid Monitoring Systems

Distribution Grid

Management

Distribution Grid

Management

High Voltage Transmission

Systems

High Voltage Transmission

Systems

Smart Grid Revenue Forecasts (Global)

15

Source: Frost & Sullivan Forecast

Geographical Forecast for Smart Grid Revenues

16


Smart Grid Components – Revenue Forecast

17


Strategic Positioning of Market Leaders

18

Brief Profile of Market Leaders

19

Strategic Benchmarking of Market Leaders

20

APAC Microgrid Markets

2121

Microgrid Architecture Overview

Microgrid Control Center

Distributed Generation (DG)

Transmission and Distribution Automation

Diesel/Gas

Biomass

Power Source Automation

Demand Energy

22

Energy Storage

Electricity Loads

Main Grid

Solar

Wind

Lead Acid Batteries

Flywheels

Fuel cells or Flow batteries

Sodium Sulfur and etc

Switch

Demand Response

Energy Management Systems

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Microgrid Evolution and Deployment

23

Decentralizing generation away from main utility grid

Adding more generators to supply for a larger community

Making the community grid ‘smarter’ and the ability to support the main utility grid


Microgrid End User Segmentation

Rural

Sub-segment

Rural/Farmland

Islands

Military

Buildings

Priority/ImportanceCountry

Attractiveness

Cost effective

Independent Power and Security

-NA-

Indonesia,Thailand

24

MicrogridEnd User

Urban

Industrial


Buildings

Communities

Hospitals

Manufacturing

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency

Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore

New Zealand

Note: For governments, the importance of microgrid technology is to improve efficiency and to include the renewable energy sources.

Microgrid Emerging Business Models

25

Microgrid


Japan leads the pack, but other countries are exploring opportunities

Mark

et

Valu

e

26

South Korea

MaturityDevelopment Growth Decline

Time

Mark

et

Valu

e

Japan

Australia

ThailandSingapore

Malaysia

New Zealand

Indonesia


Lack of standardization is a key barrier

2The microgrid market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 39.8% during 2011 to 2017.

Market is in nascent stage with no full scale

1In APAC Japan, Australia and South Korea are leading the Microgrid market.1In APAC Japan, Australia and South Korea are leading the Microgrid market.

1In APAC, Japan, Australia, and South Korea are the major markets for microgrid.

27

3

Market is in nascent stage with no full scale implementation. Test projects by governments in collaboration with the private companies are underway.

4Government funding plays a key role in the development of microgrid projects.

5Technological barriers and lack of standardization are the critical challenges in

the sector


5Technological barriers and lack of standardization are the critical challenges in

the market

Frost & Sullivan

Corporate Overview

28

The Frost & Sullivan Story

29

What Makes Us Unique

30

Our Industry Coverage

31

Our Services

32

Our Global Footprint 40+ OfficesScanning the Globe for Opportunities and Innovation

33

Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter

http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan

http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506

34

http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan

http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506

http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan

For Additional Information

Donna Jeremiah

Corporate Communications

(603) .62045832

[email protected]

Jessie Loh


(65) 6890 0942

[email protected]

35

Carrie Low


(603) 6240 5910

[email protected]

Date post:	20-Aug-2015
Category:	Technology
Upload:	frost-sullivan
View:	3,864 times
Download:	3 times