The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 1

FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST

ASIA UP TO 2020

FUTURE PREDICTION OF SURFACE OZONE OVER EAST

ASIA UP TO 2020

Kyushu University, Japan

Kazuyo YamajiKazuyo Yamaji and Hajime Akimotoand Hajime Akimoto

Toshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi KurokawaToshimasa Ohara and Jun-ichi Kurokawa

Itsushi UnoItsushi Uno

Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), JAMSTEC, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

(kazuyo@jamstec.go.jp)

Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS*Using CMAQ and REAS**Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC*Regional Emission inventory in ASia for past and future, developed at FRCGC

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 2

1980 1990 2000 2010 202010

20

30

40

50N

Ox

emis

sion

s in

Asi

a (T

g/yr

)

YEAR

REAS (past)

van Aardenne et al. (1999)IIASA (past)

NOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in AsiaNOx emission trends in Asia

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

1980 1990 2000 2010 202010

20

30

40

50N

Ox

emis

sion

s in

Asi

a (T

g/yr

)

YEAR

REAS (past)

van Aardenne et al. (1999)IIASA (past)

REAS (PFC)REAS (REF)REAS (PSC)

base year for future prediction

policy failure case (PFC), reference (REF), policy succeed case (PSC)

Future predictionFuture predictionbase year, 2000base year, 2000

not consider rapid not consider rapid increase, 2000-2003increase, 2000-2003

WORSE WORSE CASE? CASE? WORSE WORSE CASE? CASE?

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 3

Objective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationTo investigate future OTo investigate future O33 changes caused by changes caused by

anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) emission changes)

Objective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationObjective of this simulationTo investigate future OTo investigate future O33 changes caused by changes caused by

anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB anthropogenic emission changes (not consider BB emission changes) emission changes) Simulation casesSimulation casesSimulation casesSimulation cases

Past

Future

Met.Boundary condition

Emission Inventory

Anthrop.VOC

(natural)BB

2000

2000

CHASER

CHASER

REAS_2000

REAS_2010/2020

GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000

GEIA_1990 ACESS_2000

For the other For the other countriescountries

REF (reference)

Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*Future emission scenarios (REAS)*

For China, using 3 emission For China, using 3 emission scenariosscenarios

PSC (policy succeed case)REF (reference) PFC (policy failed case) http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

*Ohara et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 4

NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr) NOx and NMVOC emissions (Tg/yr)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 5

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/p3/emission.htm

NOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission mapsNOx and NMVOC emission maps2000 2000 Emission changes (2000-2020)Emission changes (2000-2020)

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 6

- Regional Chemistry Transport Model -

CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4CMAQ v4.4Gas-Phase Chemistry: SAPRC-99SAPRC-99

Aerosol Chemistry: AERO3AERO3

Outline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulation

RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4RAMS v4.4

-Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field--Meteorological Field-

- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -- Boundary condition -

- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -- Emission Inventory -

NCEP1x1 met. dataNCEP1x1 met. data

Anthropogenic: (annually)2000, 2010, 2020

Biomass burning: (annually)ACESS ACESS 2000

Biogenic NMVOC:(monthly) GEIA GEIA 1990

in put (off line)

in put (off line)

CHASERCHASER CHASERCHASER Sudo et al., 2002

(every 3 hour)

in put (off line)(monthly)

REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)REASv1.1 (FRCGC)

(Global Chemistry Transport Model)

(2000) (2000)

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 7

RAMS RAMS domaindomain

CMAQ CMAQ domaindomain

- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -- MODEL AREA -Outline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulationOutline of this simulation

Area: East AsiaArea: East Asia[CMAQ domain][CMAQ domain]Horizontal Resolution: 78×68 (grids), 80km meshVertical Resolution: 14 layers (up to 23km)

[RAMS domain][RAMS domain]Horizontal Resolution: 100×90(grids), 80km meshVertical Resolution: 22 layers (up to 23km)

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 8

Comparison of Comparison of modeled and observed Omodeled and observed O33

Comparison of Comparison of modeled and observed Omodeled and observed O33

Tappi

Happo

Oki

Hedo

Mt. Tai

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 9

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.21 0.40 0.72 0.65 0.44 0.45 0.64 0.47 0.53 0.55 0.68 0.41

correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.61 (for YR.): R=0.61 (for YR.)JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.17 0.72 0.37 0.52 0.57 0.81 0.77 0.52 0.90 0.38 0.46 0.49

correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.72 (for YR.): R=0.72 (for YR.)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.28 0.58 0.63 0.58 - 0.82 0.74 0.53 0.66 0.44 0.69 0.29

correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.74 (for YR.): R=0.74 (for YR.)JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.45 0.43 0.41 0.85 0.81 0.90 0.85 0.56 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74

correlation coefficientscorrelation coefficients: R=0.85 (for YR.): R=0.85 (for YR.)

Observation data from Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia, EANET

Japanese sites in Japanese sites in 20002000

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 10

Mt. Tai

Observation data from Pochanart et al., 2007

Chinese site (Mt. Tai),Chinese site (Mt. Tai), obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000)obs. (2004,2005) and model (2000)

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RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Yearly averaged O- Yearly averaged O3 3 (below 2km) -(below 2km) -- Yearly averaged O- Yearly averaged O3 3 (below 2km) -(below 2km) -

OO33 changes (2000-2010) changes (2000-2010)OO33 changes (2000-2010) changes (2000-2010)

OO33 changes (2000-2020) changes (2000-2020)OO33 changes (2000-2020) changes (2000-2020)

The 6th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 1-3, 2007 12

RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 (<2km) - (<2km) -- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 (<2km) - (<2km) -

-2020REF--2020REF--2020REF--2020REF-

-2000--2000--2000--2000-

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RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 in June (<2km) - in June (<2km) -- Monthly averaged O- Monthly averaged O33 in June (<2km) - in June (<2km) -

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20-80 ppm h

70-80ppmh

75-85ppmh

AOT40 AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb)AOT40 AOT40 (Accumulated Exposure Over Threshold of 40ppb)

- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -- For tree: Critical Level 8-21ppm h -

80-120*ppmh * More than 5 times of Critical Level

1-4 times of Critical Level

Critical Level

RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS

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CEC: Central East China

S1:2010PSC, R1:2010REF, F1:2010PFC, S2:2010PSC, R2:2010REF, F2:2010PFC

RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTSWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMVWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMV

OC, is sensitive to OOC, is sensitive to O33 growth? growth? Which precursor’s change, NOx or NMVWhich precursor’s change, NOx or NMV

OC, is sensitive to OOC, is sensitive to O33 growth? growth?

*with large anthropogenic emission increases !!*with large anthropogenic emission increases !!larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity larger NOx sensitivity and smaller NMVOC sensitivity

over CEC in June.over CEC in June.

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SUMMARYSUMMARY SUMMARYSUMMARY Past and future O3 over East Asia has been simulated by using CMAQ and REAS.

This model system can capture O3 concentrations at monitoring sites in East Asia.

REAS PFC with large NOx and NMVOC increases in China will bring about higher O3 in 2020. But, NOx decrease (REAS PSC in 2020) will be helpful to decrease of O3 in China. Additionally, NOx decreases will be also helpful to control O3 increase over East Asia.

Especially in June (with high O3), REAS REF and PFC will bring about considerable high O3 at the North China Plain in 2020.

Based on these model experiments, over CEC in June, O3 concentration is largely affected by NOx emission increases but is not sensitive to NMVOC emission increases.

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