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FuturesworkshopINNO58Hworkingday

5.4.2013

JohannaOllila&SariMieDnen

FinlandFuturesResearchCentre

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Futuresworkshopflow

9.009.30Facingthefuture 9.3012.00Futuresworkshop Futureswheel Break Futurestable Storyofafuture iscussion

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Howtofacethefuture

Passive:whathappened? Youanalyseaersomethinghaschanged

Reac+ve:whenhappens Youreacttoachangewhenitishappening

Preac+ve:ifhappens YououtlineseveralpossibiliXesandgetreadytoreacttoanyofthem

Proac+ve:letsmakeithappen Youtrytomakeadesirablefuturetocometrue

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Basicconceptsoffuturesstudies

Forecas+ng:predicXnganoccurrenceofaneventwithgivenprobability,viewoftheworldisratherstable

Foresight:broadtermcoveringawidevarietyofmethods,differsfromforecasXngsinceitallowsmulXplefuturestateswhichcan

differsubstanXallyfromwhatistherealitytoday

Megatrend:anissueshapingthefutureofpracXcallyallareasofthesocietyduringthecomingdecades,oenglobalexamples:globalisaXon,useofICT

Trend:idenXfiedgeneraldevelopmentpathofanissue,sphereofinfluencecanbeanythingfromglobaltoasmallgroup

examples:growinginterestonrenewableenergyordietarytrends

Futuresstudiesglossaryat:hp://www.audiencedialogue.net/glossfut.html

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ForecasXng(dataextrapolaXon)

PresentXmeHistory Imagesofthefuture

Decreases

BAU

Grows

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Openfuture(visionary)

PresentXmeHistory Imagesofthefuture?

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Whatisexecutable?CapabilitytooperateTechnology

+Resources

Whatisacceptable?LicencetooperateSociety

Whatisprofitableanddesirable?

Reasontooperate?Markets

FuturesofImaginaryOpXons

FuturesofPossibleOpXons

FuturesofRealOpXons

Futures

of Access

Futures

of Viable

Solutions

MarkoAhvenainen,FFRC

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Futuresworkshop:Whathappensin2025?

Joinyourteammembersatyourworkingspace Explorethebasicneedbehindtheteamtopicandputitonthecentre

ofthesheet

Take5minutestothinkabouttheteamtopic,writeyourideasonpostitnotes

rawamindmapwithyourteamaroundyourtopic:discussthepostitideas

Environmentalscanning:picturethesystemaroundtheteamtopic,whatkindofsocial,technological,environmental,poliXcal,and

economicfactorsandvalueshaveaneffectonthetopic?

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Blackswans(opXonalexercise)

Blackswans/weaksignals/wildcards:eventswhichhavealowprobability,thusbeingasurprisefortheobserver,andhaveamajor

impact

Gothroughthepreviousdiscussions.Arethereitemsthatcouldbelabelledasblackswans?Whatkindofeffectstheymighthaveonthetopic?

Youcanalsocomeupwithnewitemsandthinkabouttheireffects

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Futuresof

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TesXngthefuture:GetaLife!simulaXon

SimulaXngvariouspossiblefuturesinpersonalandworklifeupto20yearsahead

OnlinesimulaXontooldesignedforstudents,includes>900simulatedsituaXonsfromtheworkingworldofthefuture

EachsituaXonentailsseveralplausiblechoices ChoicesleadtoconsequencessodiversethatsomeXmesevena

proacXvemindcannotanXcipate

IniXatescontemplaXonofonescapabiliXes,lifeandthevariousscenariosofthefutureworklife

Unlikethereallife,thesimulaXonprovidesanopportunitytogobackandchoosedifferentlyandthusexplorevariousfuturepaths

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Thankyou!

Moreinforma+on:

JohannaOllila:johanna.ollila@utu.fi

SariMie