Presentation by Dorjpurev Jargal, Education Evaluation Center of Mongolia (EEC Mongolia), at Mongolia's 1st National Workshop on the Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia.
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MONGOLIA, 1 MONGOLIA, 1 st st NATIONAL WORKSHOP NATIONAL WORKSHOP Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia Strategies in Northeast Asia 14 14 th th April 2010 April 2010 Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia GHG Inventory and GHG Inventory and mitigation analysis mitigation analysis in Mongolia in Mongolia Dr. DORJPUREV JARGAL Dr. DORJPUREV JARGAL EEC Mongolia EEC Mongolia
Transcript
MONGOLIA, 1MONGOLIA, 1stst NATIONAL WORKSHOPNATIONAL WORKSHOPEconomics of Climate Change and Low Carbon GrowthEconomics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth
Strategies in Northeast AsiaStrategies in Northeast Asia
1414thth April 2010April 2010Ulaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, MongoliaUlaanbaatar Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
GHG Inventory and GHG Inventory and mitigation analysis mitigation analysis
in Mongoliain MongoliaDr. DORJPUREV JARGALDr. DORJPUREV JARGAL
GHG Emissions in COGHG Emissions in CO22--eq by gases for the period 1990eq by gases for the period 1990--20062006
Carbon dioxide is the most significant source of the greenhouse gases in Mongolia’s inventory with a share of 50.4 % of the total CO2-eq emissions in 2006 followed by methane, which comprises 41.8%. The remaining gases (N2O, HFCs) make up 7.8% of Mongolia’s GHG Emissions.
Mongolia’s GHG InventoryMongolia’s GHG Inventory
Contribution to total COContribution to total CO22--eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006 eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006
In 2006, the energy sector (including stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions) was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions comprising 65.4% of total GHG emissions in CO2-equivalent. The second largest source of GHG emissions was agriculture sector (41.4%). For Land use change and forestry sector, the total CO2 removals were 13.3% due to increase of the area of abandoned lands and reduce of newly cultivated land. Other relatively minor sources currently include emissions from industrial process and waste sector.
Mongolia’s GHG InventoryMongolia’s GHG Inventory
Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006
The main contributor to the total methane emissions is the agriculture sector with about 92- 93% of the total methane emissions The second biggest contribution comes from the energy sector with about 5-6%, while all other sectors are contributing with less then 2%
in total.
Mongolia’s GHG InventoryMongolia’s GHG Inventory
Total Greenhouse gas emissions
Mongolia’s GHG InventoryMongolia’s GHG Inventory
In 1990, Mongolia’s net GHG emissions were 22532 thousand tones CO2-eq. and the net GHGemissions were reduced up to 14850 thousand tones in 1995. The reduction of net GHG emissionsis mostly due to socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from socialism to marketeconomy. But during this period the methane emissions are increased due to increase of livestockpopulation. The HFCs are increased for the period 1990-2006 due to increase of refrigerators andvehicles with air conditions.
Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita Emissions
If compare with the other developed and developing countries, the total GHG emissions is small, but per capita and per GDP emissions is high. Mongolia’s per capita emissions were 6.0 tons /person, which is almost 2 times more than developing countries average. Per GDP CO2 emissions are 10 times more than world average
Mongolia’s GHG InventoryMongolia’s GHG Inventory
0.240.70
7.50
2.68
4.41
6.97
0.75
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CO2/GDP, kg CO2 per US$ (2000)
Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation options (The energy sector of Mongolia is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. The cold continentalclimate and use of coal contribute to high rate of emissions per capita and domestic production) Energy sector
• Increase Renewable options– Hydro Power Plants– Wind farms– PV and solar heating
• Efficiency improvement of Heating boilers– Efficiency improvement of existing HOB,– Install boilers new design with high efficiency– Converting steam boilers into small capacity thermal power plant
• Improvement of household stoves and furnaces– Modernization of existing household stoves and furnaces– Implementation of new design household stoves and furnaces– Change of fuels for household stoves and furnaces
• Improving of coal quality– Coal briquette– Application of effective mining technology and facilities, including
selective mining, dewatering system coal handling plant.• CHP improvement options
– Efficiency improvement– Reduction of internal use
Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate change
• Building – Building insulation improvements– Building standards– Improvements of district heating
system in buildings– Lighting efficiency improvements
• Industry– Technology change (Dry process of
cement industry and others)– Motor efficiency improvements– Lighting efficiency improvements– Promotion of ESCO activities
• Transport– Vehicle fuel combustion efficiency
improvement – Improvements road conditions– Taxes on vehicle
purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing
• Agriculture – To limit the increase of the total
number of livestock by increasing the productivity of each type of animals, especially cattle.
– To promote industrial livestock production enterprises
• Land use change and forestry – Natural regeneration– Plantation forestry – Agro-forestry– Bioelectricity
Implementation possibilities of Greenhouse Gas mitigation projects
• Mongolia is one of the potential host countries of CDM projects. Despite a small population and economy, Mongolia’s GHG emissions are relatively large, due mostly to climatic factors (cold winters). In particular, there is considerable scope to use renewable energy resources to replace fossil fuels, to reduce fossil fuel input by replacing outdated heating equipment with more efficient heating equipment, and to increase energy efficiency in supply and demand sectors.
• CDM can play an important role in the sustainable development of Mongolia’s economy – CDM can help to reduce pollution, make the economy more competitive, create employment, and reduce poverty. Especially given Mongolia climatic conditions, the potential benefits to Mongolia from CDM can be relatively large.
• Recently the several projects are approved and registered as CDM projects
Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate change
TopTop--Down and BottomDown and Bottomup models up models
Both Top-Down and Bottomup models can yield usefulinsights on mitigation.• Top-down models are most
useful for studying broad macroeconomic and fiscal policies for mitigation such as carbon or other environmental taxes.
• Bottom-up models are most useful for studying options that have specific sectoral and technological implications.
The most mitigation assessment has so far focused on bottom-up approaches.
Models for Mitigation Analysis in the UNFCCC ContextModels for Mitigation Analysis in the UNFCCC ContextGHG Mitigation assessment analysisGHG Mitigation assessment analysis
• LEAP– Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning
system – Primary Developer: Stockholm Environment
Institute• ENPEP
– Energy and Power Evaluation Program – Primary Developers: Argonne National
Laboratory and the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA)
• Demand: energy demand analysis (including transport analyses).
• Statistical Differences: the differences between final consumption values and energy demands.
• Transformation: analysis of energy conversion, extraction, transmission and distribution. Organized into different modules, processes and output fuels.
• Stock Changes: the supply of primary energy from stocks. Negative values indicate an increase in stocks.
• Resources: the availability of primary resources (indigenous and imports) including fossil reserves and renewable resources.
• Non-energy sector effects: inventories and scenarios for non-energy related effects.
Creating policy Scenarios• Efficient lighting• Building Insulation• Industrial efficiency• Transmission and distribution losses reduction• Station own use reduction• Renewable energy
For Each Scenario:• Technology Penetration: how many of the new (efficient) types of devices
will be installed in the policy scenario?• Technology Performance: how efficient are the new devices or technology• Technology cost: how much do the new devices cost?
