GHG Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles: Review of EPA's ... · PDF fileCar/truck mix. 67/33%...

GHG Standards for Light-duty Vehicles

Review of EPA’s Technical Assessment and Role of Engineering Plastics for Mass Reduction

Kevin Bolon, Ph.D.

National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

Office of Transportation and Air Quality

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

12th Annual Auto EPCON, Society of Plastics Engineers, Troy MI

May 2, 2017

Overview

How the EPA GHG Standards Work

Industry Progress-to-Date

What Might the 2025 Time-Frame Look Like – EPA assessment (thus far)

What Comes Next

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – OAR-OTAQ 2

How the EPA standards work

3

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency OAR OTAQ

Footprint-based CO2 Target Curves for Trucks – “The Standards” [separate footprint curve for Cars]

– - 4

Buick Encore

Nissan Murano

Toyota Sienna

Chevy Silverado

Ford F-150

With a shift from cars to SUVs &

trucks, the OEM’s standard becomes

less stringent

Footprint (sq. ft.)

CO

2 (

g/m

i)

So What is the 2025 EPA Standard?

Projections for Model Year 2025 Fleet CO2 Compliance Target Fuel Prices/Fleet Mix Affect EPA’s PROJECTION of 2025 Standard

2012 Projection

Summer 2016 Projection

Fall 2016 Projection

Fuel Price $3.87 $2.95 $2.97

($/gallon)

Car/truck mix 67/33% 52/48% 53/47%

2025 Fleet CO2

Compliance Level 163 175 (g/mi, 2-cycle)

MPG-e 54.5 50.8 (2-cycle)

173

51.4

These are industry compliance values.

For consumers, the 2025 average real-world value is

~ 36 MPG


Progress-to-Date and Contribution of Mass Reduction

6

Vehicle CO2 Emissions at Record Low – every major vehicle category improving

All values Real world

All values Real world

MY2015: 358 g/mi CO2 (24.8 mpg) Truck SUVs highest % improvement since 2004, up 33%

MY 2016 Projected : 25.6 mpg Pickups improved most in past year, up 0.8 mpg to 18.8 mpg


Automakers Adopting a Wide Array of Technologies at Rapid Rates

GDI use on nearly half of all

vehicles (up from 3% in MY2008), with Mazda at 100%, 6 more OEMs above 75%

~20% fleet use 7+ speed transmissions, led by

Mercedes, BMW, and Fiat-Chrysler

>20% fleet use CVTs, led by

Subaru, Nissan, and Honda


Early Years of Program Producing Positive Results

7 Years of Sales Increases Thru 2016 Industry Outperforming Standards First Time in 100 Years


What Happens to the Over Compliance?

GHG Program is a Multi-Year Program, multiple layers of flexibility for OEMs

• No single year determines compliance.

• Program includes emissions banking and trading

• Credits last at least 5 model years, and early credits last longer.

• Debits can be carried forward for 3 model years.

• Today, the bank is 280 Million Megagrams CO2 o What’s a Megagram?

o 280M worth about 80 grams CO2/mile for the entire U.S. fleet

o Would allow the MY2015 fleet to comply with EPA standards through 2019, if all firms

participated fully in credit trading

o Through MY2015, 12 OEMs involved in credit trading


Advanced Gasoline Vehicles can Take the Industry Much Further … many vehicles already meet future targets

Vehicle Production that Meets or Exceeds MY2020 CO2 Targets

In just 4 years

With fleet averaging, in any given model year, only about 50% of vehicles would need to meet/exceed their target, depending on sales volumes.


What might 2025 look like: EPA technical assessment

(thus far)

12

EPA’s Assessments are Informed by a Wide Range of Information

Technical research performed by EPA

o Benchmarking testing of 30 vehicles across wide range of powertrains & segments (with more to come)

o Published more than 30 peer-reviewed papers and technical reports o Vehicle simulation modeling, cost teardown studies, mass reduction feasibility/cost studies, manufacturer

“learning by doing” costs, research on consumer issues, economic inputs, others

Extensive reviews of the literature

o 100’s of reports/papers from the literature published since 2012, including major studies such

as the 2015 National Academy of Sciences report

Stakeholder outreach & collaboration o Hundreds of meetings with automakers, suppliers, NGOs, consumer groups, labor, states/local

governments, others

o Collaboration with NHTSA, CARB, DOE, Transport & Environment Canada


EPA Most Recent Assessment – Standards can be Met Mostly with Advanced Gasoline Technologies

One possible powertrain pathway

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – OAR-OTAQ

Cost estimate of $875/vehicle Advanced engines and transmissions

Vehicle light-weighting

7% Average Mass Reduction from MY2015

Improved aerodynamics

More efficient accessories

Low rolling resistance tires

Stop-start technology

Mild hybrid (e.g., 48 volt systems)

Small levels of strong HEV, EV, PHEV

Fuel Savings Offsets Cost increase Net lifetime savings of $1,650

14

Holistic Vehicle Mass Reduction Studies Completed Since 2012 Final Rule

(NHTSA/EDAG) Midsize Car (2012) Baseline: MY2011 Honda Accord Unibody 3G Optimization AHSS body structure with Al Closure

(NHTSA/EDAG) Light Duty Pickup Truck (2016) Baseline: MY2014 Silverado Body on Frame Towing up to 12,000 lbs 3G Optimization AHSS frame with Al/AHSS cab structure and closure

(EPA/FEV) Light Duty Pickup Truck (2015) Baseline: MY2011 Silverado Body on Frame Towing up to 12,000 lbs 2G Optimization; Secondary Mass Al intensive and HSS frame

(EPA/FEV) Midsize CUV (2012) Baseline: MY2010 Venza Unibody Towing 1000-3500 lbs 2G Optimization; Secondary Mass HSS body structure with limited use of Al closure

(ARB) Midsize CUV (2012) Baseline: MY2010 Venza Unibody Towing 1000-3500 lbs Al intensive design

(DOE/Ford/Magna) Midsize car (2015): Baseline: MY2013 Fusion Unibody Cost study for 40-45%

(Transport Canada) Light Duty Pickup Truck (2015): Baseline: MY2011 Silverado Mass impact of meeting IIHS Small Overlap


Mass Reduction Cost Curves (costs for mass reduction applied to typical 2008-vintage designs)

Cost per pound Cost per vehicle

Unibody Vehicles

Body-on-Frame Vehicles

% Mass Reduction (based on 3000lb vehicle)

% Mass Reduction (based on 6000lb vehicle)

% Mass Reduction

% Mass Reduction


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$

81

$1

65

$

25

1

$3

40

$

43

1

$5

25

$6

21

$

72

0

$82

1

$9

25

$

1,0

30

$1

,13

8

$1

,24

9

$1

,361

$

1,4

76

1

2.5

$0

$

84

$

17

0

$2

59

$

35

0

$4

44

$5

40

$

63

9

$74

0

$8

44

$

94

9

$1,0

57

$

1,1

68

$

1,28

0

$1

,39

5

13

.0

$0

$

86

$

17

5

$2

67

$

360

$

45

7

$5

55

$6

56

$

76

0

$8

66

$

97

4

$1

,08

4

$1

,196

$

1,3

11

1

3.5

$0

$

89

$

18

0

$2

74

$3

70

$

46

9

$57

0

$6

74

$

77

9

$8

87

$

99

8

$1

,110

$

1,2

25

1

4.0

$0

$

91

$

185

$

28

2

$3

80

$4

81

$

58

5

$6

90

$

79

8

$9

09

$

1,02

1

$1

,13

6

14

.5

$0

$

94

$1

90

$

28

9

$39

0

$4

93

$

59

9

$7

07

$

81

7

$93

0

$1

,04

4

15

.0

$0

$9

6

$1

95

$2

96

$

39

9

$5

05

$

61

3

$7

23

$

836

$

95

1

15

.5

$0

$

99

$2

00

$

30

3

$4

09

$

51

7

$6

27

$

740

$

85

4

16

.0

$0

$1

01

$

20

4

$3

10

$

41

8

$5

28

$

641

$

75

6

16

.5

$0

$

10

3

$2

09

$

31

7

$4

27

$

540

$

65

4

17

.0

$0

$

10

6

$2

14

$

32

4

$43

6

$5

51

1

7.5

$0

$

10

8

$2

18

$

331

$

44

5

18

.0

$0

$

11

0

$22

3

$3

37

1

8.5

$0

$

112

$

22

7

19

.0

$0

$

11

5

19

.5

$0

2

0.0

Mass R

ed

uctio

n A

pp

lied (%

)

Starting Mass Reduction on Baseline Vehicle (%)

$1

63

$

18

6

$2

10

$

236

$

26

2

$2

90

$

31

8

$3

48

$

379

$1

72

$

19

6

$1

61

$

18

6

$1

49

$

17

3

$1

35

$

15

9

-$118

$0

$2,378

Legend

Total C

osts, M

in ~ M

ax

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

$0

-$

29

-$

50

-$6

6

-$7

7

-$8

5

-$9

0

-$92

-$

92

-$

90

-$

86

-$

80

-$

72

-$6

3

-$5

2

-$3

9

-$2

6

-$1

0

$7

$

25

$4

4

$6

5

$8

6

$1

09

$

13

4

$15

9

$1

85

$

21

3

$2

41

$

27

1

$3

02

$3

33

$

36

6

$40

0

$4

35

$

47

0

$5

07

$

54

5

$58

3

$6

23

0

.5

$0

-$

21

-$3

7

-$4

8

-$5

6

-$6

1

-$63

-$

63

-$

61

-$

57

-$

51

-$

43

-$3

4

-$2

3

-$1

0

$3

$

19

$

36

$

54

$7

3

$9

4

$1

15

$

13

8

$1

63

$

188

$

21

4

$2

42

$

27

0

$3

00

$

331

$

36

2

$3

95

$4

29

$

46

4

$4

99

$

53

6

$5

74

$

612

$

65

2

1.0

$0

-$

16

-$

27

-$

35

-$

40

-$

42

-$4

2

-$4

0

-$3

6

-$3

0

-$22

-$

13

-$

2

$1

0

$2

4

$4

0

$5

7

$7

5

$94

$

11

5

$1

36

$

15

9

$1

83

$

209

$

23

5

$2

63

$

29

1

$3

21

$

352

$

38

3

$4

16

$4

50

$

48

5

$5

20

$

55

7

$5

95

$

633

$

67

3

1.5

$0

-$

11

-$

19

-$

24

-$

27

-$2

7

-$2

5

-$2

1

-$1

5

-$7

$

3

$1

4

$2

6

$4

0

$5

5

$7

2

$9

0

$11

0

$1

30

$

15

2

$1

75

$

19

9

$22

4

$2

51

$

27

8

$3

07

$

33

6

$3

67

$3

99

$

43

2

$46

5

$5

00

$

53

6

$5

72

$

61

0

$64

9

$6

88

2

.0

$0

-$

8

-$1

3

-$15

-$

15

-$

13

-$

9

-$3

$

5

$1

4

$2

5

$3

7

$5

1

$6

7

$8

4

$1

02

$

121

$

14

1

$4

10

$

44

3

$47

7

$5

11

$

54

7

$5

84

$

62

1

$66

0

$7

00

2

.5

$0

-$

5

-$7

-$7

-$

5

-$1

$

5

$12

$

22

$

33

$

45

$

59

$

75

$

91

$

11

0

$12

9

$1

49

$

17

1

$1

94

$

21

8

$24

4

$2

70

$

29

8

$3

26

$

35

6

$3

87

$4

18

$

45

1

$48

5

$5

19

$

55

5

$5

92

$

62

9

$66

8

$7

07

3

.0

$0

-$2

-$

2

$0

$

4

$1

0

$18

$

27

$

38

$

50

$

64

$

80

$

96

$

11

5

$13

4

$1

54

$

17

6

$1

99

$

22

3

$24

9

$2

75

$

30

3

$3

31

$

36

1

$3

92

$4

23

$

45

6

$49

0

$5

24

$

56

0

$5

97

$

63

4

$67

3

$7

12

3

.5

$0

$0

$

2

$6

$

12

$

20

$2

9

$4

0

$5

3

$6

7

$8

2

$9

9

$1

17

$

136

$

15

7

$1

79

$

20

2

$2

26

$

251

$

27

7

$3

05

$

33

4

$3

63

$

394

$

42

6

$4

58

$4

92

$

52

7

$5

63

$

59

9

$6

37

$

675

$

71

5

4.0

$0

$

2

$6

$

12

$

20

$2

9

$4

0

$5

3

$6

7

$8

2

$9

9

$1

17

$

136

$

15

7

$1

79

$

20

2

$2

26

$

251

$

27

8

$3

05

$

33

4

$3

63

$

394

$

42

6

$4

58

$4

92

$

52

7

$5

63

$

59

9

$6

37

$

675

$

71

5

4.5

$0

$

4

$1

0

$18

$

27

$

38

$

51

$

65

$

80

$

97

$

11

5

$13

4

$1

55

$

17

7

$2

00

$

22

4

$24

9

$2

75

$

30

3

$3

32

$

36

1

$3

92

$4

24

$

45

6

$49

0

$5

25

$

56

0

$5

97

$

63

5

$67

3

$7

13

5

.0

$0

$

6

$14

$

23

$

34

$

47

$

61

$

76

$

93

$

11

1

$13

0

$1

51

$

17

2

$1

95

$

22

0

$24

5

$2

71

$

29

9

$3

27

$

35

7

$3

88

$4

19

$

45

2

$48

6

$5

21

$

55

6

$5

93

$

63

1

$66

9

$7

09

5

.5

$0

$

8

$1

7

$2

8

$4

1

$5

5

$7

0

$8

7

$1

05

$

124

$

14

5

$1

66

$

18

9

$2

14

$

239

$

26

5

$2

93

$

32

1

$3

51

$

382

$

41

3

$4

46

$4

80

$

51

5

$5

50

$

58

7

$6

25

$

663

$

70

3

6.0

$0

$

9

$2

0

$3

3

$4

7

$6

2

$7

9

$9

7

$11

6

$1

37

$

15

9

$1

82

$

20

6

$23

1

$2

58

$

28

5

$3

14

$

34

3

$3

74

$4

06

$

43

8

$47

2

$5

07

$

54

3

$5

79

$

61

7

$65

5

$6

95

6

.5

$0

$

11

$

23

$

37

$

53

$

70

$

88

$

107

$

12

8

$1

49

$

222

$

24

8

$2

76

$

30

4

$3

34

$

365

$

39

6

$4

29

$4

63

$

49

8

$5

33

$

57

0

$6

08

$

646

$

68

6

7.0

$0

$

13

$

26

$

42

$

59

$

77

$9

6

$1

17

$

13

8

$21

1

$2

37

$

26

5

$2

93

$

32

3

$3

54

$3

85

$

41

8

$45

2

$4

87

$

52

2

$5

59

$

59

7

$63

5

$6

75

7

.5

$0

$

14

$

29

$

46

$

64

$8

3

$1

04

$

12

6

$19

8

$2

25

$

25

2

$2

81

$

31

0

$3

41

$3

73

$

40

6

$43

9

$4

74

$

51

0

$5

46

$

58

4

$62

3

$6

62

8

.0

$0

$

15

$

32

$

50

$7

0

$9

0

$1

12

$

184

$

21

1

$2

38

$

26

7

$2

96

$

327

$

35

9

$3

92

$4

25

$

46

0

$4

96

$

53

2

$5

70

$

609

$

64

8

8.5

$0

$

17

$

35

$5

4

$7

5

$9

7

$1

20

$

14

4

$16

9

$1

95

$

22

3

$2

51

$

28

1

$3

12

$3

44

$

37

6

$41

0

$4

45

$

48

0

$5

17

$

55

5

$59

3

$6

33

9

.0

$0

$

18

$3

7

$5

8

$8

0

$1

03

$

12

7

$15

2

$1

79

$

20

6

$2

35

$

26

4

$2

95

$3

27

$

36

0

$39

3

$4

28

$

46

4

$5

00

$

53

8

$57

7

$6

16

9

.5

$0

$1

9

$4

0

$6

2

$8

5

$1

09

$

134

$

16

1

$1

88

$

21

7

$2

46

$

277

$

30

9

$3

41

$3

75

$

41

0

$4

46

$

48

2

$5

20

$

558

$

59

8

10

.0

$0

$

21

$

42

$

65

$

90

$

115

$

14

1

$1

69

$

19

7

$2

27

$

258

$

28

9

$3

22

$3

56

$

39

1

$4

26

$

46

3

$5

01

$

539

$

57

9

10

.5

$0

$

22

$

45

$

69

$

94

$1

21

$

14

8

$1

77

$

20

6

$2

37

$2

69

$

30

2

$33

5

$3

70

$

40

6

$4

42

$

48

0

$51

9

$5

58

1

1.0

$0

$

23

$

47

$

72

$9

9

$1

26

$

15

5

$1

85

$

215

$

24

7

$2

80

$3

13

$

34

8

$3

84

$

42

1

$4

58

$

497

$

53

6

11

.5

$0

$

24

$

49

$7

6

$1

03

$

13

2

$1

62

$

192

$

22

4

$2

57

$2

90

$

32

5

$3

61

$

39

8

$4

35

$

474

$

51

3

12

.0

$0

$

25

$5

2

$7

9

$1

08

$

13

7

$1

68

$2

00

$

23

3

$26

6

$3

01

$

33

7

$3

73

$

41

1

$45

0

$4

89

1

2.5

$0

$

26

$

54

$

83

$

11

2

$1

43

$1

75

$

20

7

$24

1

$2

76

$

31

1

$3

48

$

38

6

$42

4

$4

64

1

3.0

$0

$

28

$

56

$

86

$

116

$

14

8

$1

81

$2

15

$

24

9

$2

85

$

32

2

$3

59

$

398

$

43

7

13

.5

$0

$

29

$

58

$

89

$1

21

$

15

3

$18

7

$2

22

$

25

8

$2

94

$

33

2

$37

0

$4

10

1

4.0

$0

$

30

$

60

$9

2

$1

25

$1

59

$

19

3

$2

29

$

26

6

$3

03

$

342

$

38

1

14

.5

$0

$

31

$6

2

$9

5

$12

9

$1

64

$

19

9

$2

36

$

27

4

$31

2

$3

52

1

5.0

$0

$3

2

$6

4

$9

8

$1

33

$

16

9

$2

05

$

24

3

$28

1

$3

21

1

5.5

$0

$

33

$

66

$

10

1

$1

37

$

17

4

$2

11

$

250

$

28

9

16

.0

$0

$

34

$

68

$

10

4

$1

41

$

17

8

$21

7

$2

57

1

6.5

$0

$

35

$

70

$1

07

$

14

5

$18

3

$2

23

1

7.0

$0

$

36

$7

2

$1

10

$

149

$

18

8

17

.5

$0

$

37

$

74

$

113

$

15

2

18

.0

$0

$

38

$7

6

$1

16

1

8.5

$0

$3

9

$7

8

19

.0

$0

$

39

1

9.5

$0

2

0.0

Mass R

ed

uctio

n A

pp

lied (%

)

Starting Mass Reduction on Baseline Vehicle (%)

Mass Reduction and Cost Savings

Cost savings • opportunities only

available at lower levels of mass reduction

• very limited for vehicles starting with >2% mass reduction

Cost savings • opportunities for

Pickup Trucks are more limited than for Passenger Cars/CUVs

To

tal

Estimated Total Costs depend on Both:

EPA estimates 2.0% average mass reduction is already in current fleet

-$92

$0

$715

Legend

Total C

osts, M

in ~ M

ax

To

tal

Starting Mass Reduction

To

tal M

ass R

ed

uctio

n

17

Material Composition – EPA/FEV Silverado Mass Reduction Study

Scope of Study:

• Baseline: 2011 Silverado 1500, Crew Cab, 4x4

• Contractor: FEV w/Subcontractors EDAG, Munro, etc.

Boundary Conditions

• Maintain function and performance (including payload and towing capacities)

• No degradation in safety from the baseline vehicle

• Capable of being mass produced in the 2020-2025 timeframe (450,000/yr)


EPA/FEV Silverado Study – Plastic Content by System

Engine

Transmission

Body System - A

Body System - B

Body System - C

Body System - D

Suspension

Driveline

Brake

Exhaust System

Fuel System

Steering Gear

Climate Control

Info, Gage & Warning Device

Electrical Power Supply

Infotainment

Lighting System

Electrical

Total

Baseline Lightweighted Change

13.9 (6%) 18.9 (9%) 5.0kg

6.9 (5%) 7.7 (7%) 0.8kg

7.1 (53%) 6.4 (51%) -0.7kg

47.0 (19%) 49.6 (23%) 2.6kg

22.9 (57%) 20.8 (54%) -2.1kg

2.2 (4%) 2.1 (4%) -0.1kg

1.7 (1%) 21.9 (10%) 20.2kg

0.2 (0%) 0.2 (0%) 0.0kg

2.5 (3%) 4.9 (9%) 2.4kg

0.0 (0%) 0.0 (0%) 0.0kg

15.5 (59%) 16.1 (65%) 0.6kg

0.7 (2%) 0.6 (3%) 0.0kg

8.3 (41%) 6.4 (35%) -1.9kg

1.1 (72%) 1.1 (83%) 0.0kg

0.0 (0%) 2.0 (25%) 1.9kg

1.7 (99%) 2.4 (89%) 0.7kg

6.4 (67%) 6.0 (65%) -0.4kg

11.2 (33%) 8.7 (34%) -2.5kg

149.5 175.9 26.4

Plastic in System, kg (% of system mass)


Metal to Plastic Valve Cover

System Engine

Component Valve Cover

Component Mass Saving % 44%

Mass Saving 1.16 kg

Cost Saving $6.06

Value 5.22 $/kg (cost save)

[Base Technology] Material: Aluminum Application: Silverado

[New Technology] Material: Polyamide Application: Chrysler 4.7L V8

Ford Duratec 2.0L


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=chrysler+4.7+v8+valve+cover&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=VwQmBFKinhm8uM&tbnid=dtqxO9q0-CfkcM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.speautomotive.com/Awards Modules/2003Awards/Powertrain/47valvecover.htm&ei=2mLgUfXfFtjH4APtk4DQBg&bvm=bv.48705608,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNG9YBXTzFHuRcGr0RsFf2C4dN8HxA&ust=1373746204778021

Metal to Plastic Front Engine Cover

System Engine

Component Front Cover

Component Mass Saving % 32%

Mass Saving 0.42 kg

Cost Saving -$2.44

Value -5.88 $/kg (cost increase)

[Base Technology] Material: Aluminum Application: Silverado

[New Technology] Material: Polyamide Application: GM 4.3L Vortec


Metal to Plastic Oil Pick-up Tube

System Engine

Component Oil Pick-up Tube

Component Mass Saving % 25.5%

Mass Saving 0.07 kg

Cost Saving -$0.33


[Base Technology] [New Technology]

Material: Steel Material: Polyamide

Application: Silverado Application: BMW 2.0L Diesel


Metal to Plastic Passenger Airbag Housing

System Body

Component Passenger Airbag Housing


Mass Saving 0.62 kg

Cost Saving $0.99


[Base Technology] Material: Steel Application: Silverado

[New Technology] Material: PA6 GF40 Application: Ford Explorer


Metal to Plastic Rear Leaf Spring

System Infotainment

Component Rear Leaf Spring


Mass Saving 35.7 kg

Cost Saving -$113.47


[Base Technology] [New Technology] Material: Steel Material: Glass fiber reinforced plastic Application: Silverado Application: Sprinter Weight: 26.2kg Weight: 10.5kg


Engineered Plastics to Lightweight Engineered Plastics Intake Manifold

System Body

Component Intake Manifold


Mass Saving 0.28 kg

Cost Saving -$0.81


[Base Technology] Material: PA66 GF20 Application: Silverado

[New Technology] Material: PA66 GF20 with 5%Glass Bubbles Application: Various exterior components and mouldings


Engineered Plastics to Lightweight Engineered Plastics Foamed Plastic Applications

Component Air Filter Box System Interior Trim and Ornamentation (Body System C)

System Mass Saving % --%

Mass Saving 2.06 kg

Cost Saving $6.84


PolyOne used on all class “A” surface plastic parts

• Center Console Trim • Front and Rear Seat Trim • Door Trim • Kick Panels • A&B Pillar Trim • Instrument Panel Trim

• Radiator Grill • Cowl Screen • Front and Rear Fascia • Front Air Dam

System Mass Saving % 15%

Mass Saving 0.66 kg

Cost Saving $0.27


MuCell used on non-class “A” surface plastic parts:

• Engine Air Intake Components

• Radiator Fan Shroud and Blades


What could aggressive application of technology look like?

EPA could have included even more technology:

• Water injection for knock mitigation – BMW

• Variable Compression Ratio – Nissan

• Electric supercharging – Valeo, Eaton, Audi

• 48 volt P2 hybrids – near strong HEV effectiveness at lower cost

• Lean-burn operation – several manufacturers are investigating

• Delphi-Tula Dynamic Skip Fire Cylinder Deactivation System

• Increased thermal management (e.g., waste heat recovery – as used in HD Rule)

• Additional friction reduction: – Cam and crank roller bearings

– Plasma Vapor Deposition (PVD) cylinder coating – already in production

• Ball-based Continuously Variable Transmissions (Dana)

Auto Industry 3rd largest sector for global R&D investment

> $100 Billion/year, >$270 Million/day

Source: Booz & Co.

Thompson Reuterslists Fuel Economy

among the 5 “hottestareas” of automotive

innovation - based on assessment of

publications/inventions/patent filings


Sample of Recent Innovations in Engineered Plastics from the Trade Press

Sabic LANXESS • Structural foaming IP carrier • Continuous fiber • Plastic-metal hybrids thermoplastic brake pedal

• PA6 oil pans Teijin • Improved chemical

hardening of plastic glazing http://www.ihssupplierinsight.com/news/5239530/teijin-develops-new-hard-coatingtechnology-for-automotive-plastics-glazing-

Elring Klinger Solvay • Heat performance PA66

http://www.ihssupplierinsight.com/news/5236349/solvay-launches-new-polyamidebased-performance-materials-for-automotive-applications

https://www.sabic.com/en/news/6122-lightweightpp-and-plastic-metal-hybrid-solutions-amongthose-sabic-featuring-at-germany-s-vdi-congress

http://www.ptonline.com/articles/several-firstsamong-2015-spe-automotive-innovation-awards

http://lanxess.com.au/en/lanxess-media-australia/global-pr-australia/2016-00077e/

https://www.elringklinger.de/en/products-technologies/originalequipment/lightweight-plastic-components-car-body#ui-id-1

• Hybrid cross-car beam


28

http://www.ihssupplierinsight.com/news/5236349/solvay-launches-new-polyamide

http://www.ihssupplierinsight.com/news/5239530/teijin-develops-new-hard-coating

What comes next?

29

EPA’s Reconsideration of the MTE Final Determination

March 15, 2017 - EPA Administrator Pruitt issued a Notice announcing he will reconsider the EPA Final Determination published in January 2017:

“ … EPA has concluded that it is appropriate to reconsider its Final Determination in order to allow additional consultation and coordination with NHTSA in support of a national harmonized program.”

“In accord with the schedule set forth in EPA’s regulations, the EPA intends to make a new Final Determination regarding the appropriateness of the MY 2022-2025 GHG standards no later than April 1, 2018.”


EPA Continues its In-depth Evaluation of Advanced Powertrains

Component benchmarking efficiency maps:

• MY2016 Mazda CX-9 2.5 liter GDI-turbo-charged w/ 6-speed AT

• MY2016 Honda Civic 1.5 liter GDI-turbo-charged 10.6:1 w/ CVT

Vehicle level benchmarking:

• MY2016 Acura ILX w/dual-clutch transmission with torque converter

• MY2017 Ford F150 w/10 speed AT

• MY2016 Chevy Malibu w/1.5 liter GDI-turbo-charged w/ 6-speed AT

Demonstration and Modeling:

• Demonstration of cooled EGR on a modified European Mazda 2.0 liter GDI-naturallyaspirated 14:1 CR engine

• GTPower modeling of a MY2012 PSA 1.6 liter GDI-turbo-charged engine with cooled EGRand an advanced turbo

• GTPower modeling of a MY2016 Honda Civic 1.5 liter GDI-turbo-charged 10.6:1 CR engine

• ALPHA model comparison of several CVTs

• ALPHA modeling of all vehicles included in above component and vehicle benchmarking Modeling and Simulation

EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

Ann Arbor, MI

Modeling and Simulation


Additional EPA Work Underway in Many Areas

Technology cost teardowns with FEV: modern GDI turbo-downsized engine, advanced diesel engine, CVT

Updates to OMEGA cost-effectiveness optimization model and ALPHA full vehicle simulation model

Ongoing work to evaluate the willingness to pay (WTP) for vehicle attributes (e.g., power, fuel economy, size, etc).

o Our review of 50+ papers from the last 20 years found very wide variation in these WTP values. Ongoing work evaluates what factors may contribute to this variation.

Ongoing evaluation of automotive reviews of MY2015 vehicle fuel efficient technologies

o Building upon EPA’s study of MY2014 vehicles, we continue to find that positive evaluations for all technologies (70%) exceed negative evaluations of the technologies (18%)

Ongoing work to evaluate the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rebound effect

Collaboration with Transport and Environment/Climate Change Canada on mass reduction and aerodynamics

Continued evaluation of the vehicle fleet each year to assess technologies, emissions, and compliance – supporting EPA’s forth-coming MY2016 Manufacturer GHG Performance Report and

2017 CO2/Fuel Economy Trends Report


Appendix

33

Global Passenger Car CO2 Standards

Source: International Council for Clean Transportation.

http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staf f/improving-conversionsbetween-passenger-vehicleefficiency-standards


2025 CO2 Standard is a Function of Car & Truck Production Volume and Vehicle Footprint

Passenger Car Target (g/mi) = (3.26 x footprint) – 3.2 • for vehicle footprints >41 and < 56 square feet

Light-Truck Target (g/mi) = (3.58 x footprint) +12.5 • for vehicle footprints >41 and < 74 square feet

For each individual company the Car & Truck standards are a function of the # vehicles produced & each vehicle’s footprint


Compliance Determination with Credit Banking and Trading

• Assist manufacturer planning and phase-in of GHG-reducing technologies, consistent with typical redesign cycles

• Unlimited credit transfer across car and truck fleets

• Unlimited credit trading between manufacturers

• 5-year credit carry-forward, with one-time early credit carry forward of CO2 credits

• MY 2010 and later credits can be carried forward to MY 2021

• 3-year credit carry-back


M

M

W

Mass-Reduction and Cost Optimization Process

1. Measure

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

Engi

ne S

yste

m

Tran

smiss

ion

Syst

em

Body

Sys

tem

Gro

up -A

-( B

ody

Shee

tmet

al)

Body

Sys

tem

Gro

up -B

-(Bo

dy In

terio

r)

Body

Sys

tem

Gro

up -C

-(Bo

dy E

xter

ior T

rim)

Body

Sys

tem

Gro

up -D

-(G

lazin

g &

Bod

yec

hatr

onic

s)

Susp

ensi

on S

yste

m

Driv

elin

e Sy

stem

Brak

e Sy

stem

Fram

e an

d ou

ntin

g Sy

stem

Exha

ust S

yste

m

Fuel

Sys

tem

Stee

ring

Sys

tem

Clim

ate

Cont

rol S

yste

m

Info

rmat

ion,

Gag

e an

d ar

ning

Dev

ice

Syst

em

Elec

tric

al P

ower

Sup

ply

Syst

em

In-V

ehic

le E

nter

tain

men

t Sys

tem

Ligh

ting

Syst

em

Elec

tric

al D

istr

ibut

ion

and

Elec

tron

ic C

ontr

olSy

stem

Flui

ds a

nd M

iscel

lane

ous C

oatin

g M

ater

ials

Vehi

cle

Syst

em M

ass

"kg"

2. Record

3. Reproduce 4. Analyze

Subgroup Ae Subgroup Be Subgroup Ce Subgroup De Subgroup Xe

Range

"$/kg" ≤ $0

Range

"$/kg"

>$0.00

≤$1.00

Range

"$/kg"

>$1.00

≤$2.50

Range

"$/kg"

>$2.50

≤$4.88

Range

"$/kg" > $4.88

Subgroup Be Subgroup De

Range

"$/kg"

>$0.00

≤$1.00

Range

"$/kg"

>$2.50

≤$4.88

Cost Group: B Cost Group: D

Mass Reduced (MR) Componenets Options => Mass-Reduced Subsystem Options

(Example: Front Rotor/Drum and Shield Subsystem (FRDSS) ) Cost Group: X Cost Group: D Cost Group: C Cost Group: B Cost Group: A

Rotor

Option #2

FRDSS Option

# 2

Rotor #2 +

Dust Shield #3 + Brake Caliper #4 +

Pad Kit #2 Caliper Brkt #4

$0.93/kg

FRDSS Option

#4

Rotor #3 + Dust Shield #4 +

Brake Caliper #6 +

Pad Kit #2 Caliper Brkt #2

$4.40/kg

●Same Process Repeated

for Low Cost Solution Subsystems

●Built-up using Low Cost

Solution Component

Assembly Matrix

Rotor

Option #3

Rotor

Option #4

Dust Shield

Option #2

Dust Shield

Option #3

Dust Shield

Option #4

Brake Caliper

Option #2

Brake Caliper

Option #3

Brake Caliper

Option #4

Brake Caliper

Option #5 Brake Caliper

Option #6

Pad Kit

Option #2

Pad Kit

Option #3

Caliper Bracket

Option #2

Caliper Bracket

Option #3 Caliper Bracket

Option #4

9. Select

EPA Sponsored Light Duty Pickup Truck Lightweighting Study - Project Methodology

Finger Print Baseline Technology Teardown and Idea Generation

1500 Series Chevrolet Silverado, Production Stock Pick-Up Truck Vehcle Systems Mass Contributions

5. Evaluate 6. Generate

Detailed Mass-Reduction Feasibility and Cost Analysis

7. Estimate

8. Score

10. Calculate

11. Analyze

Components

Included In

Subsystem

1. Mass-Reduced Rotors

2. Mass-Reduced

Dust Shields

3. Mass-Reduced

Brake Capilers

4. Mass-Reduced Pad Kits

5. Mass-Reduced

Caliper Brackets


Key Mass Reduction Studies Considered in MTE

Agency Description Completion Date Reference Pass Car/

CUV Studies

US EPA Phase 2 Midsize CUV (2010 Toyota Venza)

Low Development (HSS/Al focus)

2012 Final Report, Peer Review and SAE Paper EPA-420-R-12-019, EPA-420-R-12-026,

SAE Paper 2013-01-0656

ARB Phase 2 Midsize CUV (2010 Toyota Venza) High Development

All Aluminum

2012 Final Report and Peer Review http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/leviii/final_arb_phase2_report-compressed.pdf

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/leviii/carb_version_lotus_project_peer_review.pdf

NHTSA Passenger Car (2011 Honda Accord)

2012 Final Report, Peer Review, OEM response, Revised Report ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/CAFE/2017-25_Final/811666.pdf

http://www.nhtsa.gov/Laws+&+Regulations/CAFE++Fuel+Economy/ci.NHTSA+Vehicle+Mass-Size-Safety+Workshop.print

http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/812237_LightWeightVehicleReport.pd f

DOE/ Ford/

Magna

-Passenger Car (2013 Ford Fusion)

Mach 1 and Mach 2 projects -Cost Study for 40-45% Mass Reduction

-Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis And Process Cost Modeling Project

2015 http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/06/f24/lm072_skszek_2015_o.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/07/f17/lm072_skszek_2014_o.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/07/f17/lm088_skszek_2014_o.pdf

http://avt.inl.gov/pdf/TechnicalCostModel40and45PercentWeightSavings.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/06/f33/lm090_mascarin_2016_o_web.pdf

SAE papers include:2015-01-0405~0409,2015-01-1236~1240,2015-01-1613~1616

NHTSA Passenger Car small overlap mass add 2016 Final Report http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/812237_LightWeightVehicleReport.pd

f

Light Duty Truck Studies

EPA 2011 Silverado 1500 2015 Final Report, Peer Review and SAE Paper EPA-420-R-15-006,SAE Paper 2015-01-0559

NHTSA 2014 Silverado 1500 2016 Final Report November 2016

Transport Canada

IIHS small overlap mass add on LDT (EPA) 2015 Final Report and Peer Review https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/programs/environment-etv-summary-eng-2982.html

Peer Review (EPA docket)


https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12026.pdf

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/leviii/final_arb_phase2_report-compressed.pdf

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/leviii/carb_version_lotus_project_peer_review.pdf

ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/CAFE/2017-25_Final/811666.pdf

http://www.nhtsa.gov/Laws+&+Regulations/CAFE+-+Fuel+Economy/ci.NHTSA+Vehicle+Mass-Size-Safety+Workshop.print

http://www.nhtsa.gov/Laws+&+Regulations/CAFE+-+Fuel+Economy/ci.NHTSA+Vehicle+Mass-Size-Safety+Workshop.print

http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/812237_LightWeightVehicleReport.pdf


http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/06/f24/lm072_skszek_2015_o.pdf




http://avt.inl.gov/pdf/TechnicalCostModel40and45PercentWeightSavings.pdf

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/06/f33/lm090_mascarin_2016_o_web.pdf



https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/programs/environment-etv-summary-eng-2982.html


EPA technical information available to all stakeholders/public

Wide range of peer-reviewed publications and presentations:

• Technical papers,including SAE papersand EPA reports

• Conference presentations

• Modeling workshop

+ more … 39

Modeling and Simulation

EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

Ann Arbor, MI

Case Study: 2017 Honda CRV 1.5 liter AWD

*Illustrative example only. EPA estimated real-world fuel economy targets from CO2 compliance targets, assuming A/C credits and 5 g/mi off-cycle credits

• Best-selling SUV in U.S.

• AWD versions make up 2/3 of sales

• Advanced Gasoline Technology: o Turbocharged GDI 1.5 liter I4 engine o Continuously variable transmission o No electrification

• Could already meet* 2022 target o 5 years ahead

• Within 4 mpg of 2025 target With 8 years to go


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