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Dan Coombs EVP, Global Olefins & Polyolefins March 15, 2016 Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin
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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

Dan Coombs

EVP, Global Olefins & Polyolefins

March 15, 2016

Goldman Sachs

Chemical Intensity Conference

Propylene: The “Other” Olefin

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

Cautionary Statement

2

The statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These

forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions of management which are believed to be reasonable at the time made

and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially based on factors including, but not

limited to, the business cyclicality of the chemical, polymers and refining industries; the availability, cost and price volatility of

raw materials and utilities, particularly the cost of oil, natural gas, and associated natural gas liquids; competitive product and

pricing pressures; labor conditions; our ability to attract and retain key personnel; operating interruptions (including leaks,

explosions, fires, weather-related incidents, mechanical failure, unscheduled downtime, supplier disruptions, labor shortages,

strikes, work stoppages or other labor difficulties, transportation interruptions, spills and releases and other environmental

risks); the supply/demand balances for our and our joint ventures’ products, and the related effects of industry production

capacities and operating rates; our ability to achieve expected cost savings and other synergies; our ability to successfully

execute projects and growth strategies; legal and environmental proceedings; tax rulings, consequences or proceedings;

technological developments, and our ability to develop new products and process technologies; potential governmental

regulatory actions; political unrest and terrorist acts; risks and uncertainties posed by international operations, including foreign

currency fluctuations; and our ability to comply with debt covenants and service our debt. Additional factors that could cause

results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in the “Risk Factors” section of

our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, which can be found at www.lyondellbasell.com on the Investor Relations

page and on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website at www.sec.gov.

The illustrative results or returns of growth projects are not in any way intended to be, nor should they be taken as, indicators or

guarantees of performance. The assumptions on which they are based are not projections and do not necessarily represent the

Company’s expectations and future performance. You should not rely on illustrated results or returns or these assumptions as

being indicative of our future results or returns.

This presentation contains time sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date hereof. Information contained in this

presentation is unaudited and is subject to change. We undertake no obligation to update the information presented herein

except as required by law.

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

Agenda

Ethylene and propylene value chains

Impacts of propylene on ethylene value

Opportunities for polypropylene

Differential value with advantaged propylene oxide technology

Conclusions

3

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LYB is a Leader in the Global Propylene Chain

4

Sources: IHS and LYB. All capacities as of December 31, 2015. (1) Includes 100% of joint capacities. (2) Includes LYB consolidated and proportional share of joint capacity. (3) Includes only polymer-grade and chemical-grade propylene (excludes refinery-grade propylene). (4) Includes Catalloy capacity. (5) LYB Spheripol and Spherizone technology is used in over 50 billion lbs. per year of global PP capacity.

Product

LYB

Consolidated

and

Joint Share (2)

With 100%

of Joint

Capacity (1)

LYB

Global

Ranking (1)

Propylene (3) 8.6 11.5 #3

Polypropylene (4) 12.6 18.2 #1

Propylene Oxide 2.8 5.1 #2

Polypropylene

Compounds2.6 2.8 #1

Polypropylene

Technology (5) - - #1

LYB Global Capacity (B lbs)

2

4

6

8

Propylene PP (4) Propylene Oxide PP Compounds

B Lbs Americas (1)

Wholly Owned Joint

2

4

6

8

Propylene PP (4) Propylene

Oxide

PP Compounds

B Lbs Europe (1)

Wholly Owned Joint

2

4

6

8

Propylene PP (4) PropyleneOxide

PPCompounds

B Lbs Asia/ME/ROW (1)

Wholly Owned Joint

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Ethylene: primary product from steam crackers

Propylene: typically a co-product

5

Source: IHS global production and demand data. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene.

Sources

Propylene Oxide

Acrylonitrile

Others

Polypropylene

Products

Ethylene Chain Propylene Chain (1)

Polyolefins and oxides are ~ 75% of demand for each olefin

353 B lbs Global

Capacity

252 B lbs Global

Capacity

NGLs in Steam

Crackers

Naphtha/Gas Oil in

Steam Crackers

MTO / CTO / Others

Ethylene Oxide

Vinyls

Others

Polyethylene

Steam CrackersRefinery

FCC

On-Purpose

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100

200

300

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

B lbs

Ethylene Demand

Propylene Demand

Propylene: a smaller market with stronger growth

6

Source: IHS. Excludes refinery-grade propylene.

Past 25 years: Ethylene growth: 1.4x GDP

Propylene growth: 1.9x GDP

52 B lbs

65 B lbs

Global Demand Growth 1990-2015 2016-2020

Ethylene 4.0% 3.8%

Propylene 5.2% 4.5%

AAGR

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20

40

60

80

2011-2015 2016-2020

B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added

Supply and Demand for Olefins:

Ethylene Balanced, Propylene Loosening

7

• Ethylene outlook: Balanced globally, additional derivative capacity expected for USA

• NA and EU propylene production fell by 7 B lbs due to increased NGL cracking

• Propylene outlook: Capacity additions outpacing global derivative demand

Global

U.S.

Source: IHS. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene. (2) U.S. and EU production lost due to increased ethane usage in steam crackers.

Ethylene Propylene (1)

20

40

60

80

2011-2015 2016-2020

B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added

20

40

60

80

2011-2015 2016-2020

B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added

20

40

60

80

B Lbs Capacity Added Production Lost (2) Demand Added

(10)

10

20

30

40

B Lbs Capacity Added Production Lost (2) Demand Added

10

20

30

40

2011-2015 2016-2020

B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added

20

40

60

80

2011-2015 2016-2020

B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added

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2016 – 2020:

On-purpose Propylene Dominates Global Capacity Growth

8

Ethylene Capacity Growth Propylene Capacity Growth (1)

Ethylene Supply Growth ~ 75% conventional; Propylene Supply Growth ~ 75% On-purpose

Source: IHS. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene.

65 B lbs: 18% of

Existing

Capacity

58 B lbs: 23% of

Existing

Capacity

2016 – 2020

Global

Growth Steam

Crackers

Coal / Methanol to Olefins

Others

Coal / Methanol to OlefinsOther On-

Purpose

Steam Cracker

Refinery FCC

PropaneDehyrogenation

(PDH)

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Pricing Driven by Several Factors

9

Ethylene: Price driven by local supply/demand and feedstock costs

Propylene: Price correlated with crude oil

Polymers: Polypropylene prices more competitive. NEA arbitrage has been persistent.

Ethylene / Brent Price Ratio Propylene / Brent Price Ratio

Source: IHS. Olefin prices are monthly contract pipeline prices (NA and EU) and monthly average spot (NEA) for ethylene and polymer-grade propylene. Price Ratio is olefin in U.S. cents per pound relative to Brent in USD per barrel. Polymer prices are IHS estimated net transaction (NA), discounted contract estimate (EU) and monthly average spot (NEA) for blow-molding HDPE and homopolymer PP.

Polyethylene Price Polypropylene Price

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2005-2009 2010-2014 2015

North America Europe Northeast Asia

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2005-2009 2010-2014 2015

North America Europe Northeast Asia

20

40

60

80

100

2005-2009 2010-2014 2015

Cents per Pound North America Europe Northeast Asia

20

40

60

80

100

2005-2009 2010-2014 2015

Cents per Pound North America Europe Northeast Asia

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0.5

1.0

1.5

Ethane Propane Naphtha C/MTO C/MTP PDH

Propylene Price Effect on Cost of Ethylene

10

Abundant, low-priced propylene:

1) Increases the cost of non-ethane ethylene

2) Improves the advantage of U.S. ethane-based ethylene

Propylene provides a coproduct cost benefit that reduces the Cost of Ethylene (COE)

Steam Cracker On-Purpose

Cost of Ethylene Propylene / Ethylene Product Ratio

Source: IHS 2016 World Analysis Production Economics. Coproduct propylene prices varied with all other feeds, product prices and costs held constant.

20

40

60

US Ethane NEA MTO

30 ¢/lb propylene 60 ¢/lb propylene

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20

40

60

80

(4)

(2)

0

2

4

2006 to 2010 2011 to 2015 2016

Centsper

PoundB lbs ∆ in US Propylene Production ∆ in US PP Production

US PG Propylene Price

PP demand destruction in U.S. from high propylene prices:

Reversing with increased supply and lower crude pricing

11

Increased Propane Cracking and New PDH Capacity Restoring U.S. Propylene Market Balance

Propylene price is NA contract polymer-grade propylene price. U.S. propylene production is chemical- and polymer-grade propylene Source: IHS 2015 U.S. production data.

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Global PP Supply/Demand

12

Abundant, low-priced propylene will enable continued PP growth.

Polypropylene Advantages Polypropylene Supply / Demand

• Low density, lightweight

• Impact resistance

• Recyclability

• Chemical resistance

• Wide temperature performance

• Plasticizer-free

• Replacement for higher-cost

resins and PVC

Source: IHS.

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

B Lbs Nameplate PP Capacity PP Demand Operating Rate (%)

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NA Polypropylene: Tight Market Driving Margin

13

Market-based PP pricing reflects the tight market with strong margins.

Source: IHS. Spreads and margins depicted as 3-month moving averages. Spread is contract homopolymer less contract polymer-grade monomer price. Homopolymer prices prior to 2015 are adjusted to account for the January 2015 IHS non-market reduction. Margin is IHS discounted contract pre-tax non-integrated margin.

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

(5)

5

15

25

35

45

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

OperatingRate

Centsper Pound

PP Profit Margin

PP Operating Rate

PP Spread over Monomer

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30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

B lbs

Effective Capacity Demand % Utilization

Propylene Oxide:

Steady Growth, Leading Technology

14

• Global demand growth supports ~ 1-2 new world-scale Propylene Oxide plants per year

• LyondellBasell’s PO/TBA process is the lowest cost technology

PO Cost Curve

Source: LYB, external consultants.

Global Propylene Oxide

Supply / Demand

LYB

Co

st

of

PO

Pro

du

cti

on

($40 B

ren

t)

PO/SM

Chlorohydrin &

Non Coproduct

Technologies

PO/TBA

20% 25% 55%

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PO/TBA:

Proprietary technology that upgrades advantaged NA NGLs

15

PO/TBA converts shale-based NGLs into high-octane oxyfuels

0.8 lb.

Propylene

2 lbs.

(0.4 gal)

Butane

1 lb.

Propylene Oxide

(PO)

Tertiary Butyl

Alcohol (TBA)

1 lb.

(0.15 gal)

Methanol

Isobutylene

3 lbs. (0.5 gal)

MTBE

Oxyfuel

PO/TBA

Plant

Oxygen

Page 16: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

PO provides stability while oxyfuels leverages

shale-based butane and octane trends

16

Favorable outlook for both PO and TBA products.

20

40

60

80

100

2010-2013 2014 2015

Cents per Pound (PG)

or Gallon (MTBE)

Propylene Glycol MTBE

MTBE / RBOB Octane Spread (2) Propylene Glycol and MTBE

Raw Material Margins (1)

(1) Source: CDI (propylene glycol) and Platts. (2) Source: IHS NWE MTBE spot prices.

100

200

300

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cents per Gallon

Cents per Gallon

MTBE - RBOB Spread

MTBE Price

Page 17: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

Conclusions

Propylene expected to be abundant

– On-purpose technologies providing significant supply.

– Abundant and affordable propylene supports global ethylene economics.

– Global propylene market size is significant: 210 B lbs, 2/3 size of ethylene.

Integrated downstream propylene derivatives and technologies can improve capture of value across the chain

– PP expected to capture margin with affordable monomer and see increased demand with tight markets in NA and EU.

– PO expected to maintain stable margins across all monomer price environments.

– Oxyfuels anticipated to enjoy strong demand and profitability due to environmental demands, engine technology and advantaged shale feedstocks.

– Polypropylene compounds, PP catalysts and PP licensing extend LYB’s reach.

17

LYB is well-positioned to capture value from the “other” olefin

Page 18: Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The ... · PDF fileGoldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Conference Propylene: The “Other” Olefin. Cautionary Statement 2 The

Thank You


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