Dan Coombs
EVP, Global Olefins & Polyolefins
March 15, 2016
Goldman Sachs
Chemical Intensity Conference
Propylene: The “Other” Olefin
Cautionary Statement
2
The statements in this presentation relating to matters that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These
forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions of management which are believed to be reasonable at the time made
and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially based on factors including, but not
limited to, the business cyclicality of the chemical, polymers and refining industries; the availability, cost and price volatility of
raw materials and utilities, particularly the cost of oil, natural gas, and associated natural gas liquids; competitive product and
pricing pressures; labor conditions; our ability to attract and retain key personnel; operating interruptions (including leaks,
explosions, fires, weather-related incidents, mechanical failure, unscheduled downtime, supplier disruptions, labor shortages,
strikes, work stoppages or other labor difficulties, transportation interruptions, spills and releases and other environmental
risks); the supply/demand balances for our and our joint ventures’ products, and the related effects of industry production
capacities and operating rates; our ability to achieve expected cost savings and other synergies; our ability to successfully
execute projects and growth strategies; legal and environmental proceedings; tax rulings, consequences or proceedings;
technological developments, and our ability to develop new products and process technologies; potential governmental
regulatory actions; political unrest and terrorist acts; risks and uncertainties posed by international operations, including foreign
currency fluctuations; and our ability to comply with debt covenants and service our debt. Additional factors that could cause
results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in the “Risk Factors” section of
our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, which can be found at www.lyondellbasell.com on the Investor Relations
page and on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website at www.sec.gov.
The illustrative results or returns of growth projects are not in any way intended to be, nor should they be taken as, indicators or
guarantees of performance. The assumptions on which they are based are not projections and do not necessarily represent the
Company’s expectations and future performance. You should not rely on illustrated results or returns or these assumptions as
being indicative of our future results or returns.
This presentation contains time sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date hereof. Information contained in this
presentation is unaudited and is subject to change. We undertake no obligation to update the information presented herein
except as required by law.
Agenda
Ethylene and propylene value chains
Impacts of propylene on ethylene value
Opportunities for polypropylene
Differential value with advantaged propylene oxide technology
Conclusions
3
LYB is a Leader in the Global Propylene Chain
4
Sources: IHS and LYB. All capacities as of December 31, 2015. (1) Includes 100% of joint capacities. (2) Includes LYB consolidated and proportional share of joint capacity. (3) Includes only polymer-grade and chemical-grade propylene (excludes refinery-grade propylene). (4) Includes Catalloy capacity. (5) LYB Spheripol and Spherizone technology is used in over 50 billion lbs. per year of global PP capacity.
Product
LYB
Consolidated
and
Joint Share (2)
With 100%
of Joint
Capacity (1)
LYB
Global
Ranking (1)
Propylene (3) 8.6 11.5 #3
Polypropylene (4) 12.6 18.2 #1
Propylene Oxide 2.8 5.1 #2
Polypropylene
Compounds2.6 2.8 #1
Polypropylene
Technology (5) - - #1
LYB Global Capacity (B lbs)
2
4
6
8
Propylene PP (4) Propylene Oxide PP Compounds
B Lbs Americas (1)
Wholly Owned Joint
2
4
6
8
Propylene PP (4) Propylene
Oxide
PP Compounds
B Lbs Europe (1)
Wholly Owned Joint
2
4
6
8
Propylene PP (4) PropyleneOxide
PPCompounds
B Lbs Asia/ME/ROW (1)
Wholly Owned Joint
Ethylene: primary product from steam crackers
Propylene: typically a co-product
5
Source: IHS global production and demand data. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene.
Sources
Propylene Oxide
Acrylonitrile
Others
Polypropylene
Products
Ethylene Chain Propylene Chain (1)
Polyolefins and oxides are ~ 75% of demand for each olefin
353 B lbs Global
Capacity
252 B lbs Global
Capacity
NGLs in Steam
Crackers
Naphtha/Gas Oil in
Steam Crackers
MTO / CTO / Others
Ethylene Oxide
Vinyls
Others
Polyethylene
Steam CrackersRefinery
FCC
On-Purpose
100
200
300
400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
B lbs
Ethylene Demand
Propylene Demand
Propylene: a smaller market with stronger growth
6
Source: IHS. Excludes refinery-grade propylene.
Past 25 years: Ethylene growth: 1.4x GDP
Propylene growth: 1.9x GDP
52 B lbs
65 B lbs
Global Demand Growth 1990-2015 2016-2020
Ethylene 4.0% 3.8%
Propylene 5.2% 4.5%
AAGR
20
40
60
80
2011-2015 2016-2020
B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added
Supply and Demand for Olefins:
Ethylene Balanced, Propylene Loosening
7
• Ethylene outlook: Balanced globally, additional derivative capacity expected for USA
• NA and EU propylene production fell by 7 B lbs due to increased NGL cracking
• Propylene outlook: Capacity additions outpacing global derivative demand
Global
U.S.
Source: IHS. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene. (2) U.S. and EU production lost due to increased ethane usage in steam crackers.
Ethylene Propylene (1)
20
40
60
80
2011-2015 2016-2020
B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added
20
40
60
80
2011-2015 2016-2020
B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added
20
40
60
80
B Lbs Capacity Added Production Lost (2) Demand Added
(10)
10
20
30
40
B Lbs Capacity Added Production Lost (2) Demand Added
10
20
30
40
2011-2015 2016-2020
B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added
20
40
60
80
2011-2015 2016-2020
B Lbs Capacity Added Demand Added
2016 – 2020:
On-purpose Propylene Dominates Global Capacity Growth
8
Ethylene Capacity Growth Propylene Capacity Growth (1)
Ethylene Supply Growth ~ 75% conventional; Propylene Supply Growth ~ 75% On-purpose
Source: IHS. (1) Excludes refinery-grade propylene.
65 B lbs: 18% of
Existing
Capacity
58 B lbs: 23% of
Existing
Capacity
2016 – 2020
Global
Growth Steam
Crackers
Coal / Methanol to Olefins
Others
Coal / Methanol to OlefinsOther On-
Purpose
Steam Cracker
Refinery FCC
PropaneDehyrogenation
(PDH)
Pricing Driven by Several Factors
9
Ethylene: Price driven by local supply/demand and feedstock costs
Propylene: Price correlated with crude oil
Polymers: Polypropylene prices more competitive. NEA arbitrage has been persistent.
Ethylene / Brent Price Ratio Propylene / Brent Price Ratio
Source: IHS. Olefin prices are monthly contract pipeline prices (NA and EU) and monthly average spot (NEA) for ethylene and polymer-grade propylene. Price Ratio is olefin in U.S. cents per pound relative to Brent in USD per barrel. Polymer prices are IHS estimated net transaction (NA), discounted contract estimate (EU) and monthly average spot (NEA) for blow-molding HDPE and homopolymer PP.
Polyethylene Price Polypropylene Price
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2005-2009 2010-2014 2015
North America Europe Northeast Asia
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2005-2009 2010-2014 2015
North America Europe Northeast Asia
20
40
60
80
100
2005-2009 2010-2014 2015
Cents per Pound North America Europe Northeast Asia
20
40
60
80
100
2005-2009 2010-2014 2015
Cents per Pound North America Europe Northeast Asia
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ethane Propane Naphtha C/MTO C/MTP PDH
Propylene Price Effect on Cost of Ethylene
10
Abundant, low-priced propylene:
1) Increases the cost of non-ethane ethylene
2) Improves the advantage of U.S. ethane-based ethylene
Propylene provides a coproduct cost benefit that reduces the Cost of Ethylene (COE)
Steam Cracker On-Purpose
∞
Cost of Ethylene Propylene / Ethylene Product Ratio
Source: IHS 2016 World Analysis Production Economics. Coproduct propylene prices varied with all other feeds, product prices and costs held constant.
20
40
60
US Ethane NEA MTO
30 ¢/lb propylene 60 ¢/lb propylene
20
40
60
80
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
2006 to 2010 2011 to 2015 2016
Centsper
PoundB lbs ∆ in US Propylene Production ∆ in US PP Production
US PG Propylene Price
PP demand destruction in U.S. from high propylene prices:
Reversing with increased supply and lower crude pricing
11
Increased Propane Cracking and New PDH Capacity Restoring U.S. Propylene Market Balance
Propylene price is NA contract polymer-grade propylene price. U.S. propylene production is chemical- and polymer-grade propylene Source: IHS 2015 U.S. production data.
Global PP Supply/Demand
12
Abundant, low-priced propylene will enable continued PP growth.
Polypropylene Advantages Polypropylene Supply / Demand
• Low density, lightweight
• Impact resistance
• Recyclability
• Chemical resistance
• Wide temperature performance
• Plasticizer-free
• Replacement for higher-cost
resins and PVC
Source: IHS.
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
B Lbs Nameplate PP Capacity PP Demand Operating Rate (%)
NA Polypropylene: Tight Market Driving Margin
13
Market-based PP pricing reflects the tight market with strong margins.
Source: IHS. Spreads and margins depicted as 3-month moving averages. Spread is contract homopolymer less contract polymer-grade monomer price. Homopolymer prices prior to 2015 are adjusted to account for the January 2015 IHS non-market reduction. Margin is IHS discounted contract pre-tax non-integrated margin.
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
(5)
5
15
25
35
45
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OperatingRate
Centsper Pound
PP Profit Margin
PP Operating Rate
PP Spread over Monomer
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
B lbs
Effective Capacity Demand % Utilization
Propylene Oxide:
Steady Growth, Leading Technology
14
• Global demand growth supports ~ 1-2 new world-scale Propylene Oxide plants per year
• LyondellBasell’s PO/TBA process is the lowest cost technology
PO Cost Curve
Source: LYB, external consultants.
Global Propylene Oxide
Supply / Demand
LYB
Co
st
of
PO
Pro
du
cti
on
($40 B
ren
t)
PO/SM
Chlorohydrin &
Non Coproduct
Technologies
PO/TBA
20% 25% 55%
PO/TBA:
Proprietary technology that upgrades advantaged NA NGLs
15
PO/TBA converts shale-based NGLs into high-octane oxyfuels
0.8 lb.
Propylene
2 lbs.
(0.4 gal)
Butane
1 lb.
Propylene Oxide
(PO)
Tertiary Butyl
Alcohol (TBA)
1 lb.
(0.15 gal)
Methanol
Isobutylene
3 lbs. (0.5 gal)
MTBE
Oxyfuel
PO/TBA
Plant
Oxygen
PO provides stability while oxyfuels leverages
shale-based butane and octane trends
16
Favorable outlook for both PO and TBA products.
20
40
60
80
100
2010-2013 2014 2015
Cents per Pound (PG)
or Gallon (MTBE)
Propylene Glycol MTBE
MTBE / RBOB Octane Spread (2) Propylene Glycol and MTBE
Raw Material Margins (1)
(1) Source: CDI (propylene glycol) and Platts. (2) Source: IHS NWE MTBE spot prices.
100
200
300
20
40
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cents per Gallon
Cents per Gallon
MTBE - RBOB Spread
MTBE Price
Conclusions
Propylene expected to be abundant
– On-purpose technologies providing significant supply.
– Abundant and affordable propylene supports global ethylene economics.
– Global propylene market size is significant: 210 B lbs, 2/3 size of ethylene.
Integrated downstream propylene derivatives and technologies can improve capture of value across the chain
– PP expected to capture margin with affordable monomer and see increased demand with tight markets in NA and EU.
– PO expected to maintain stable margins across all monomer price environments.
– Oxyfuels anticipated to enjoy strong demand and profitability due to environmental demands, engine technology and advantaged shale feedstocks.
– Polypropylene compounds, PP catalysts and PP licensing extend LYB’s reach.
17
LYB is well-positioned to capture value from the “other” olefin
Thank You