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How to Be a Tech Futurist:A Developmental Perspective on Accelerating Change
Accelerating Change 2005John Smart, President, ASF
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
© 2005 Accelerating.org
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Presentation Outline
1. Introduction
2. Universal Assumptions
3. Two Processes of Change: Evol. and Development
4. Introduction to Accelerating Change
5. Prediction: Expecting the Future
6. Management: Thriving with Change
7. Creation: Making the Future
1. Introduction
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Acceleration Studies Foundation
ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change.
We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices.
Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.
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Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development?
Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan Like history and
current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.
Why not here?
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Brief History of Futures Studies
1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation
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Four Types of Future Studies
– Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)
– Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)
– Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)
– Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and
development studies
It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses
Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.
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Graduate Foresight Programs:Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping
Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs) Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs) Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD
under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998).
Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early for foresight specializations.
To date only tech roadmapping is falsifiable, and is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992).
Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Acceleration and Development Studies.
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Undergrad Foresight Development:Future Prediction, Mgmt, and Creation
Prediction– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, the
history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, marketing research
Management– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence,
networking, scenario development, risk analysis, hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems
Creation– personal and entrepreneurial tools for creating
preferred futures, research and development, creative thinking, positive psychology, social networking, business plan production
2. Universal Assumptions
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The Infopomorphic Paradigm
The universe is a physical-computational system.
We exist for information theoretic reasons.
We’re here to discover, model/love, and create.
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The MESTI Universe
Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information
Increasingly Understood Poorly Known
MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change.
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Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density
Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search)
An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = NegentropyUniversal Energy Potential is Conserved.
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Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve
Free Energy Rate DensitySubstrate (ergs/second/gram)
Galaxies 0.5Stars 2 (counterintuitive)Planets (Early) 75Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)Jets (10^8)
Pentium Chips (10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
Ф
time
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Just what exactly are black holes?
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Lee Smolin’s Answer:“Cosmological Natural Selection”
At least 8 of the 20 “standard model”universal parameters appear tuned for:
– black hole production– multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life)
The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
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An Evolutionary Developmental Universe
Developmental Lesson: A Possible Destiny of Species
MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, ImmunityInner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims)
3. Two Basic Processes of Change: Evolution and Development
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Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.Development creates the predictable global patterns.
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Cambrian Explosion
Com
plex
Env
iron
men
tal I
nter
actio
n
Selection/Emergence/Phase Space Collapse/MEST Collapse
Development
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.”
Invertebrates
Vertebrates
Bacteria
Insects
Multicellularity Discovered
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The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development”
Com
plex
Env
iron
men
tal I
nter
actio
n
Selection & Convergence““Convergent Selection”Convergent Selection”Emergence,Global OptimaMEST-Compression Standard Attractors
Development
Replication & Variation ““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Adaptive Radiation Chaos, ContingencyPseudo-Random SearchStrange Attractors
Evolution
Right HandLeft Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computat’l Phase Space Opening
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Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)
The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
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How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal?
Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
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How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile?
Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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Evolution and Development:Two Universal Systems Processes
Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
EvolutionChanceRandomnessVariety/ManyPossibilitiesUniquenessUncertaintyAccidentBottom-upDivergentDifferentiation
DevelopmentNecessityDeterminismUnity/OneConstraintsSamenessPredictabilityDesign (self-organized or other)Top-DownConvergentIntegration
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Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability
Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).
4. Introduction to Accelerating Change
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Something Curious Is Going On
Unexplained.(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
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From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED
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From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED
Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977)
Each month is roughly 1 billion years.
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A U-Shaped Curve of Change?
Big Bang Singularity
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth
100,000 yrs: Matter
50 yrs ago: Machina silico50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
Developmental Singularity?
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Eldredge and Gould(Biological Species)
Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)(income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)
80% Equilibrium (Evolution)
Suggested Reading:For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's DilemmaFor the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More
Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…)
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A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing
No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
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The Technological Singularity Hypothesis
Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.”
The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.
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Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist”
The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its
possibilities."
Wild speculation or computational reality?
Still too early to tell, at present.
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Brief History of Accelerating Change
Billion Years Ago
13.7 Big Bang (MEST)
13.4 Milky Way (Atoms)
6 Sun (Energy)
4.5 Earth (Molecules)
3.5 Bacteria (Cell)
2.5 Sponge (Body)
0.7 Clams (Nerves)
0.5 Trilobites (Brains)
0.2 Bees (Swarms)
0.100 Mammals
0.002 Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution
Generations Ago
100,000 Speech
750 Agriculture
500 Writing
400 Libraries
40 Universities
24 Printing
16 Accurate Clocks
5 Telephone
4 Radio
3 Television
2 Computer
1 Internet/e-Mail
0 GPS, CD, WDM
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The Developmental Spiral
Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs Empires Age 2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060
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Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?
A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020 – 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd
gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.
A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 – LUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation,
Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.
A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 – LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature
Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.
2050: Era of Strong Autonomy – Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles,
each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.
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Macrohistorical Singularity Books
The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998
Singularity 2130 ±20 years
Trees of Evolution, 2000
Singularity 2080 ±30 years
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Macrohistorical Singularity Books
Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003
Singularity 2050 ±10 years
The Singularity is Near, 2005
Singularity 2050 ±20 years
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“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency: Wigner and Mead
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics.
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
F=ma E=mc2
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
W=(1/2mv2)
In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.
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Example: Holey Optical Fibers
Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur.
Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.
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Longer-Term Example: Hurricane Control - New NASA/NOAA Mission?
Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 have caused damage in U.S. NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity.
Controlling Hurricanes, Scientific American, 10.2004
Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s).In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados.
Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed).23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground.Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.
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Underground AHS
Much cheaper than air transport.10X present capacity, under our cities.Requires IVs and ZEV’s (2025+)
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Understanding the Lever of ICT
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD
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Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change
In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II, 1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human-engineered accelerating progress models.
Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?
76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.
GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth?
Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60th largest country, and the 55th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.
NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?
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Acceleration Quiz
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?
Three minutes for Disney.Twenty minutes for Sony.
Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005
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World Economic Performance
GDP Per Capita in Western Europe,1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.
Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.
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Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)
Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
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Understanding Process Automation
Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth)“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later).
Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound
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Automation and Job Disruption
Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy.
America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist)
“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line.” (Tsvi Bisk)"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003
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Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change
Technological (dominant since 1950!)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed)
Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)
Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
5. Prediction: Expecting the Future
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Smart’s Laws of Technology
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
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Humans are Prediction Systems
Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm ComputingFounder, Redwood Neurosciences InstituteAuthor, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004
“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”
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The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball
What does hindsight tell us about prediction?
The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operationsresearch/ cybernetics/think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality”era of Futures Studies.
(Kahn & Wiener, 1967).
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Classic Predictable Accelerations:Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).
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Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law
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Relative Growth Rates are Surprisingly Predictable
Brad DeLong (2003) noted that memory density predictably outgrows microprocessor density, which predictably outgrows wired bandwidth, which predictably outgrows wireless. Expect: 1st: New Storage Apps, 2nd: New Processing Apps, 3rd: New Communications Apps, 4th: New Wireless Apps
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Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process
Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.
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Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1
Automation and the Service Society
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The Voluntary Future
Lifetime hours trends: 1880 1995 2040
Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.)
225,900 298,500 321,900
Worked to earn a living 182,100 122,400 75,900
Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work
43,800 176,100 246,000
Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.
Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)
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Many Accelerations are:1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves)
Some Underwhelming Exponentials:
Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)
Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years.
Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).
Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
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Saturation Example 1: Total World Population
Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.
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So What Stopped the Growth?
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Saturation Example 2:Total World Energy Use
DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new
generation of technological system3. Saturation of human population and
human needs for tech transformation
Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures.
Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand.
Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in ways very few of us currently understand.
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Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita
When per capita GDP reaches:• $3,000 – energy demand
explodes as industrialization and mobility take off,
• $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed,
• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met,
• $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy.
Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP.
Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001
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The Symbiotic Age
Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:
A time when computers “speak our language.”A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving each other.
A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”
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With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged.
New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization.
“The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent.”
We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems.
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era
Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998
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An ICT Attractor:The Conversational User Interface (CUI)
Google’s cache (2002) As we watch Windows 2004
become Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech
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AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”)
• AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) • Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs
on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)
• Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture
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Robo sapiens
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Something very cool about this algorithm…)
“Huey and Louey”
Aibo Soccer
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Social Software, Lifelogs
Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it). Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.
Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.
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Phase Transitions: Web, Semantic Web, Social Software, Metaweb
Nova Spivak, 2004
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Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and Accelerating Public Transparency
Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency
David Brin’s “Panopticon”The Transparent Society, 1998
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Tomorrow’s Fastspace:User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds
Future Salon in Second Life Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)
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In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
Personality Capture
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Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.”When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death.
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
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The Valuecosm
Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder) Datacosm (Sterling) Valuecosm (Smart) Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media
6. Management: Thriving with Change
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We Have Two Options:Future Shock or Future Shaping
“We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin
“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
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Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization
“America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate
the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We
have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge
interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our
overarching national interest today and the political party that
understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.”
Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding
Globalization (2000).
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Globalization Management
Backlash forces have to be kept in check by:
• Global tech innovation and diffusion• Global economic growth• Global political
• accountability• transparency• fair policies• minimal government (maximizing tech and
economic development)• security
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The Pentagon’s New Map
A New Global Defense Paradigm
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Shrinking the Disconnected Gap
The Computational “Ozone Hole”
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U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor
The Network of the 1880’s
Built mostly by hard-working immigrants
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IT Globalization (2000-2020):Promontory Point Revisited
The more things change, the more some things stay the same.
The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one.
Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.
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Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides
Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom
Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*.
Education divide may close next (post-LUI) Power divide likely to close last. Political
change is the slowest of all domains.
*World Bank, 2005
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Our Generation’s Theme
First World Saturating
Third World Uplifting
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Social Network Analysis
Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks.
“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004
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Networking Books
Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003
Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003
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Create Your Own Network:Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto
Met every Friday. The group invented: – the first subscription library in North America– the most advanced volunteer fire department– the first public hospital in Pennsylvania, – an insurance company, a constabulary,– improved streetlights, paving – the University of Pennsylvania.
Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks. – Scientist– Inventor– Businessman– Statesman
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Social Networking: Implications for Futurists
How to Maximize Adaptation: Find the informal (hidden) structure of the landscape. (Data
Mining)Broad Landscape: Community of Interest (Generalized)Deep Landscape: Community of Practice (Specialized)
How connected are you in these landscapes? (Network Analysis)
How many close neighbors do you have in your small worlds network? Optimized to your personal bandwidth? (Efficiency)
How many of your neighbors are bridging links to the whole system? (Network Analysis)
This will determine how rapidly feed forward and feedback can propagate to you across the entire landscape. (Robustness, Scanning, Ability to Influence Change)
Reorganize your network! Be near the center of the topics you care about. Be broad and selectively deep.
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Creative Destruction: Creating a Legal and Social Culture of Innovation
Key Metric: Of the top 25 companies in each country 25 years ago, how many are still the same?
France, Germany, Japan: Almost all.
Europe: Most
United States: Roughly half
Taiwan, Hong Kong: Very few
Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 2000
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Taiwan’s Example
Taiwan requires university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies.
Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction).
Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world.
Taiwan has the highest degree of economic creative destruction in the world.
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Empire Progression(Note the West-Far East Trajectory)
American
Japan(Temporary: Pop density,Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers(TaiwanHong KongSouth KoreaSingapore)
India
ChinaExpect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources,stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.
BHR-1, 2002
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U.S. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration has flagged in recent years
China surpassed the U.S. this year as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment.
In 2002, US Corporate R&D declined by $8 billion, largest percentage drop since 1950.
Five countries (Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Israel) spend more GDP on R&D than the U.S.
Foreign owned companies and foreign born inventors now count for nearly half of all U.S. patents, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounting for more than one fourth.
Federal R&D funding is now 1/2 of its 1960's peak of 2% of GDP. Total scientific papers by American authors peaked in 1992 and
have been flat ever since. Services are the fastest growing sector of many technology
companies, yet much of our service sector, now more than half the U.S. economy, traditionally does little R&D on business process design, organization, and management.
Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004
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National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample)
Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004
Talent Investment PoliticsExpedited, expanded sci-tech immigration
3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel.” grants
Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group
National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors
3% of DoD budget must go back to sci-tech, 20% of this at U’s
New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda
Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships
Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline
National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office.
Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation
Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding
Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law.
Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago.
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The NBIC Report and Conferences
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive ScienceEdited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report)
www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/
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“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development
Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field.Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies.
Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion.
First mover and second mover advantages.
7. Creation: Making the Future
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Some Tools for Shaping the Future
Education Investment Literacy / Environmental Awareness
– Technological– Business– Political– Social
Foresight Innovation Competition (fair, creatively destructive) Leadership
– Local Commitment– Global Perspective
Activism
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New Business Idea: Affordable Tech Education 24/7
From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers
80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India)
+ 140 million U.S. labor force (2000).
+ Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems
+ Commodity communications costs
+ PC transparency software (Gotomypc)
+ Trust (Privacy)
= 24/7 Tech Education
How soon? Watch Dell…
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Education Questions
How do we best educate our ourselves, our employees, our community, our children?
How do we learn “on demand” when we need it?
How do we learn when to act locally, and when to act globally?
When to learn individually vs. collectively?
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Developmental Windows
In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child?
Zerotothree.org
What will tomorrows for-profit daycare chains be like?
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Investment Questions
Are you practicing socially responsible and technologically responsible (acceleration aware) investing?
Supporting companies, products and services that are increasingly:
Global Intelligent Interdependent Immune/Transparent Efficient Innovative
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Literacy Questions
Are you computer, web, and communications savvy?
Do you use social network media (blogs, web communities, etc.)?
Do you subsidize online and technological innovation (leading, not bleeding edge)?
Are you reading and interpreting what’s going on in the world?
See ASF Community Directory (accelerating.org/community.html)
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Foresight Questions
Do you take time to consider the past, present, and future of your personal and professional life?
Do you use strategic planning, scanning, competitive intelligence, trend extrapolation, forecasting, scenario generation, or other futures tools?
Do you read the opinions of key future thinkers in your areas of professional interest?
Are you supporting the emergence of a professional futures community?
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Innovation Questions
Are you thinking about innovation across the spectrum (products and services, offline and online)?
Do you know which of your employees, business partners, and customers is the most innovative, all else equal? Do you reward that in your business model?
Are you working with a global and virtual innovation team?
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Leadership Questions
Are you sharing your future visions or keeping them quiet?
Are you getting critiques and feedback, and is this changing your perspective?
Are you responding respectfully, adequately, yet concisely to your critics?
Are you looking for others who also want to work toward a common vision?
Is this a mutual appreciation society or is your group affecting real change?
Are you tolerant of parallel, pluralist approaches?
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Good Leadership Attributes
The best are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice.
Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004
“Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs.”
Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems.
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Digital Activism:LinkedIn (Business Networking)
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Digital Activism: Skype (Internet Telephony)
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Seeing the Extraordinary Present
“There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.”
- Gail Carr Feldman
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Carpe Diem
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain
"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer