Date post: | 15-Aug-2015 |
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RESIDENTIAL DEMAND STABILISING SINCE H1 2014Will launches continue to spiral downward in Hyderabad?How are the premium locations faring in Hyderabad currently?Which market is carrying the oldest inventory in South India?
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 -
2
4
6
8
10
12
2,000
2,300
2,600
2,900
3,200
3,500
3,800
3,116
3,316 3,390 3,502
3,509 3,590
Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
No
. of
Un
its
INR
/ sq
ft
DEMAND REMAINS STEADY SINCE END OF 2013; NEW LAUNCHES DROP AT A FASTER PACE
<2.5 mn 2.5-5 mn 5-7.5 mn 7.5-10 mn 10-20 mn 20-40 mn0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
HMR - Central HMR - East HMR - North HMR - South HMR - West
ALL LAUNCHES UNDER INR 2.5 MN IN NORTH HYDERABAD
INR
0 5 10 15 20 25 308
10
12
14
16
18
20
QTS
Ag
e o
f u
nso
ld i
nve
nto
ry i
n q
uar
-te
rsWITH HIGHEST UNSOLD INVENTORY, WEST HYDERABAD STILL AMONG THE HEALTHIEST MARKETS
HMR - NORTH
HMR - SOUTH
HMR - EAST
HMR - WEST
HMR - CENTRAL
2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
57
2
88
9
30
8
23
2
54
4
46
6
34
5
29
4
35
2
34
6
5,161
5,539
5,684
5,789 5,789
Sum of New Launch Sum of Total Absorption Max of Prices
AT 64%, Y-O-Y SPIKE IN LAUNCHES PUTS ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON PREMIUM SEGMENT
Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-151
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nu
mb
er
of
Qu
art
ers
PREMIUM SEGMENT FALLS VICTIM TO MARKET MALAISE
PREMIUM MARKETS
HYDERABAD CITY
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
H2 2014 H2 2015E GROWTH
LAUNCHES (UNITS) 5,151 4,635 -10%
ABSORPTION (UNITS) 7,829 7,640 -2%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (INR/SQ FT) 3,502 3,590 3%
HYDERABAD HAS THE LOWEST NUMBER OF LAUNCHES AMONG ALL MARKETS
H1 2014 H1 2015
MUMBAI 35,512 18,887
NCR 35,500 11,360
BENGALURU 35,545 21,400
PUNE 16,883 12,762
CHENNAI 11,377 9,102
AHMEDABAD 9,021 8,062
KOLKATA 8,444 8,372
HYDERABAD 7,899 5,457
HYDERABAD SALES TOUCH LOWEST LEVELS, EXCEED ONLY KOLKATA
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 31,210 28,446
NCR 28,500 14,250
BENGALURU 27,256 22,234
PUNE 14,719 15,524
CHENNAI 10,315 9,091
AHMEDABAD 10,472 7,751
HYDERABAD 7,282 7,123
KOLKATA 6,390 5,883
HYDERABAD AMONG THE LEAST PRICED MARKETS IN INDIA
H1 2012
H2 2012
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015E
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Rs
/sq
ft
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABADHYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCRBENGALURU
CHENNAI
HYDERABAD CARRIES THE OLDEST RESIDENTIAL UNSOLD INVENTORY IN INDIA
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 195
7
9
11
13
15
QTS
Age
of
unso
ld in
vent
ory
in q
uart
ers
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
OFFICE MARKET RECOVERINGWill IT/ITeS sector continue to stay strong or new sectors will take its place?How have rentals fared during H1 2015?Which locations experienced the most leasing activity?
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 ( E) -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
53
.15
55
.85
58
.89
60
.84
62
.34
44
.83
45
.98
47
.93
50
.69
52
.15
15.7%
17.7%
18.6%
16.7%16.3%
Stock Occupied stock Vacancy
mn
.s
q f
tABJECT SCARCITY OF VIABLE OFFICE SPACE PUSHES DOWN VACANCY TO 16.3% DURING JAN-JUN 2015
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 -
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 4
.04
2.7
0
3.0
4
1.9
5
1.5
0
2.5
9
1.1
5
1.9
4
2.7
6
1.4
7
New completions Absorption
mn
.s
q f
tABSORPTION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LAST JUNE
RESULTING IN STEEP RENTAL APPRECIATION OF 8% DURING H1 2015
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 201534
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
36
37 37 3737
39
40
Rents
INR
/sq
ft/
mo
nth
BFSI IT/ITeS Manufacturing Other Services sectors0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
12%
52%
5%
31%
2%
40%
10%
47%
1%
49%
2%
48%
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
0.2
3
0.0
7
0.0
2
0.6
0
1.3
0
0.7
00.1
0 0.2
8
0.0
3
HEALTHCARE COMPANIES LIKE CARE HOSPITAL & MEDICITY HOSPITALS TAKE UP LARGE SPACES
1.0
1
1.1
1
0.7
1
PBD WEST INCREASES ITS SHARE IN THE TOTAL ABSORPTION
CBD & Off CBD SBD PBD West PBD East0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
9%
75%
14%
3%
18%
39% 41%
2%
H1 2014 H1 2015
1.4
6
0.5
7
0.2
6
0.6
0 0.0
5
0.0
30.1
7
0.2
6
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
H1 2015 H2 2015E GROWTH
NEW COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT) 1.5 2.4 60%
ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT) 1.5 2.5 67%
VACANCY 16.3% 15.5%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH) 40 42 5%
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%22%
21%
8%
15%
18% 16%
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
mn
sq
ft
H1 2015
SCARCITY IN QUALITY OFFICE SPACE
HYDERABAD HAS THE LOWEST RENTALS AMONG ALL MARKETS IN INDIA
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 -15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
Gro
wth
in R
enta
ls
HYDERABAD
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 2
1,43
0
25,
622
71,
577
21,
434
24,
520
24,
702
23,
291
21,
872
54,
253
40,
773
34,
507
18,
585
H1 2014 H1 2015
sq f
tABJECT SCARCITY OF OFFICE SPACE HAS RESULTED IN LOWEST AVERAGE DEAL SIZEIN INDIA
RESIDENTIALHYDERABADDEMAND STABILIZING SINCE 2014, BUT LOWEST NUMBER OF LAUNCHES DURING JAN - JUN 2015 AMONG TOP 8 CITIES
OFFICEHYDERABADSUPPLY CRUNCH COUPLED WITH LATENT DEMAND LEADING TO RENTAL GROWTH
KEY TAKEAWAYS