INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE M M iddle Eastern Supply and iddle Eastern Supply and Sustainability Challenges Sustainability Challenges Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2005 Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2005 Claude Mandil Claude Mandil Directeur Exécutif Directeur Exécutif Agence Internationale de l’Energie Agence Internationale de l’Energie La journée du cinquantenaire du Génie Atomique Centre CEA de Saclay, le 2 décembre 2005
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MMiddle Eastern Supply and iddle Eastern Supply and Sustainability ChallengesSustainability Challenges
Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2005Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2005
Claude MandilClaude MandilDirecteur ExécutifDirecteur Exécutif
Agence Internationale de l’EnergieAgence Internationale de l’Energie
La journée du cinquantenaire
du Génie AtomiqueCentre CEA de Saclay, le 2 décembre 2005
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World Primary Energy DemandWorld Primary Energy Demand
World Energy Demand rises by 52 % between now and 2030 in the World Energy Demand rises by 52 % between now and 2030 in the Reference ScenarioReference Scenario
Coal
Oil
Gas
Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
1971
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
This is NotThis is NotSustainable!Sustainable!
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global Energy-Related COGlobal Energy-Related CO22 Emissions Emissions
Emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the Emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countriesbulk of the increase coming from developing countries
20302003
24 Gt24 Gt 37 Gt37 Gt
OECD52%
India4%
Other11%
China16%
MENA6%
Transition economies
11%
OECD42%
India6%
Other16%
China19%
Transition economies
9%
MENA8%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Net Oil ExportsMENA Net Oil Exports
MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its MENA plays an increasingly important role in international trade, its net exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030 net exports surging from 22 mb/d in 2004 to 39 mb/d in 2030
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Natural Gas ExportsMENA Natural Gas Exports
MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the increase in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demandincrease in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demand
Billion cubic metres
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Exports through the “Dire Straits”Exports through the “Dire Straits”
Much of the additional oil and LNG exports from MENA in the future Much of the additional oil and LNG exports from MENA in the future will be shipped through just three maritime routeswill be shipped through just three maritime routes
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Global Energy Investment 2004-2030Global Energy Investment 2004-2030
Energy sector investment of $17 trillion will be needed through to 2030Energy sector investment of $17 trillion will be needed through to 2030
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Transition economies
China
Other Asia
Latin America
North Africa
Other Africa
Middle East
billion dollars (2004)
Oil Gas Electricity Coal
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
MENA Crude Oil Production in the MENA Crude Oil Production in the Deferred Investment ScenarioDeferred Investment Scenario
In the Deferred Investment Scenario, MENA’s share of global oil production In the Deferred Investment Scenario, MENA’s share of global oil production falls from 35% in 2004 to 33% in 2030falls from 35% in 2004 to 33% in 2030
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Electricity DeprivationElectricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still beIn 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity1.4 billion people without electricity
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But the future is not But the future is not predetermined…predetermined…
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The World Alternative Policy ScenarioThe World Alternative Policy Scenario Analyses impact of new environmental &
energy-security policies worldwide OECD: Policies currently under consideration Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy
intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient technology
Impact on fuel mix, CO2 emissions & investment needs
Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy ScenariosAlternative Policy Scenarios
Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are 10% lower in 2030 due Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mixto significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix
2004 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oil Gas
mb/
d
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
bcm
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
COCO22 Emissions in the Reference and Emissions in the Reference and
Alternative Policy ScenariosAlternative Policy Scenarios
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
CO
2
Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario
COCO2 2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario by 2030, emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario by 2030,
but are still more than 50% higher than 1990but are still more than 50% higher than 1990
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Compact Fluorescent Lamps
LED traffic lights
Super windows & daylighting
Reducing standby power consumption
Efficient information and communication technologies
Energy efficiency offers: substantial energy and greenhouse gas
savings at low or negative cost 470 Mt/y CO2 in IEA region by 2020 in
appliances alone At negative cost: -€169/t CO2 (IEA)
energy security and reliability benefits Up to 1.5 Gt/y C by 2010; 2.7 Gt/y by 2020
Half of this at negative cost (IPCC)
enhanced business competitiveness and social welfare
Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To PlayEnergy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play And Is Available In The Short Term And Is Available In The Short Term
High performance buildings
Least life-cycle cost appliances
ABCDEFG
Labelling and certification
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But this is still not enough…But this is still not enough…
To achieve a truly sustainable energy system new To achieve a truly sustainable energy system new technologies will be needed for which technologies will be needed for which demonstration and R&D efforts must be scaled updemonstration and R&D efforts must be scaled up
But changes in energy infrastructure take time, But changes in energy infrastructure take time, thus action is urgentthus action is urgent
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The Technology ChallengeThe Technology ChallengeStabilising Greenhouse Gas
Zero Net Emission Bldgs., Industrial Efficiency, CHP
Nuclear Power Generation IV
Renewable Energy Technologies
Advanced Power Grids
Bio-Fuels and Power
Carbon (CO2) Sequestration
17
No single technology or policy can do it all
Different - regions - resources - markets - preferences - scale-up - technology requirements timing - infrastructures
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of COAvoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO22 per Year per Year
To meet the energy demand & stabilize COTo meet the energy demand & stabilize CO22 concentrations concentrations unprecedented technology changes must occur in this centuryunprecedented technology changes must occur in this century
CoalCoalCoalCoal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..
CO2 SequestrationCO2 Sequestration
NuclearNuclear
WindWind
Solar PVSolar PV
Install 200 x current US wind generation in lieu of unsequestered coal
Install 200 x current US wind generation in lieu of unsequestered coal
Install 1300 x current US solar generation in lieu of unsequestered coal
Install 1300 x current US solar generation in lieu of unsequestered coal
Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plantsInstall 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants
Build 140 1-GW power plants in lieu of unsequestered coal plants
Build 140 1-GW power plants in lieu of unsequestered coal plants
[Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004]
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Technology OpportunitiesTechnology Opportunities
No one solution, but some features are clear:No one solution, but some features are clear: Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can make
a difference in the short and long term CCS is crucial in the medium and long term but needs
full scale demonstration Renewables are key for the long-term sustainability but
must be cost-effective Nuclear can contribute more but must improve
technology and waste handling
Need to pursue a “portfolio” policy approach for Need to pursue a “portfolio” policy approach for technology deployment and R&Dtechnology deployment and R&D
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The G8 InitiativeThe G8 Initiative
The G8 Plan of Action:The G8 Plan of Action: Energy Efficiency Clean Fossil Fuel Renewables Technology Collaboration
Focuses on areas that can make the most Focuses on areas that can make the most differencedifference
Relevant to all consuming nationsRelevant to all consuming nations
Dialogue leading to urgent actionDialogue leading to urgent action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
The Role of the IEAThe Role of the IEA
The MeansThe Means A major international programme of analysis,
workshops, sharing knowledge and experience Partnership with the Wold Bank and IFIs
The EndThe End Energy scenarios and strategies for a clean energy
future Best practice for policy and regulation
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Key MessagesKey Messages Based on current policies, global energy needs in 2030 Based on current policies, global energy needs in 2030
will be more than 50% higher than today will be more than 50% higher than today THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE !THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE !
Rising CO2 emissions Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Huge energy-investment needs Persistent energy poverty
More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantlyenergy demand and emission significantly
But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment and institutional technology development & deployment and institutional changechange
Urgent and decisive government action neededUrgent and decisive government action needed
