www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2013:
Projections to 2040
for
C-SPAN’s Washington Journal
July 26, 2013 | Washington, DC
by
Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Key findings of International Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
• World energy consumption is projected to increase 56% between 2010
and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India. U.S.
consumption grows by less than 10%.
• Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing
energy sources, but fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of total
world and U.S. energy consumption through 2040.
• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by
increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane,
particularly in the United States.
• World coal use continues to grow, mostly due to increases in China’s
consumption of coal. Petroleum and other liquids fuels grow more slowly.
• Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46% by 2040.
2
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China, India, and other Non-OECD
United States and other OECD
History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013 3
By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level;
India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth
4
energy consumption by selected country
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China
United States
India
History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013
July 25, 2013
Changes in economic growth and population drive increases in
energy use; improvements in energy intensity moderate this
trend average annual change (2010-2040)
percent per year
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
U.S. OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
China India Brazil MiddleEast
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
5
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing
source of world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquids
(including biofuels)
Renewables
(excluding biofuels)
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
History Projections 2010
34%
28%
22%
11%
5%
28%
27%
23%
7%
15%
Share of
world total
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013 6
There is uncertainty about future oil prices
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Low Oil Price
High Oil Price
Reference
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Brent crude oil price paths
real 2011 dollars per barrel
History Projections 2011
$237
$163
$75
7
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
OPEC petroleum production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013 8
Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in the United
States and four other countries
non-OPEC conventional production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013 9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
2010
2040
The United States and Brazil account for most of the projected
growth in biofuels production.
world biofuels production in 2010 and 2040
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Other
Other
Brazil United States
Other Qatar
10
Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world
energy markets
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
map of basins with assessed shale oil
and gas formations, as of May 2013
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI
11
Potential resources: Top 10 countries with technically
recoverable shale resources
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Shale oil
Rank Country Billion barrels
1 Russia 75
2 United States 58
3 China 32
4 Argentina 27
5 Libya 26
6 Venezuela 13
7 Mexico 13
8 Pakistan 9
9 Canada 9
10 Indonesia 8
World total 345
Shale gas
Rank Country Trillion cubic feet
1 China 1,115
2 Argentina 802
3 Algeria 707
4 United States 665
5 Canada 573
6 Mexico 545
7 Australia 437
8 South Africa 390
9 Russia 285
10 Brazil 245
World total 7,299
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.
Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.
12
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States
account for the largest increases in natural gas production
1
2
5
5
6
10
12
16
19
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Other OECD
Canada
Australia/New Zealand
Non-OECD Central and South America
Africa
Non-OECD Asia
United States
Middle East
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
growth in natural gas production 2010-2040
trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
13
For world electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the
fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world electricity generation by fuel
billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydropower
Other renewables Liquids
History Projections
40%
22%
38%
24%
14
China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net
increase in nuclear capacity
world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040
gigawatts
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0 50 100 150 200
Japan
South Korea
India
Russia
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
China
2010
2040
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013 15
Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel
billion metric tons
Coal
Natural gas
Liquid fuels
2010 History Projections
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
16
There are many issues that increase uncertainty…
Adam Sieminski, July 26,
2013
• Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States
and Europe; and the economic slowdown in 2012-13 in key emerging
economies, including China, India, and Brazil.
• The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the 2011
nuclear disaster at Fukushima
• Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa
• Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane production potential
• OPEC market share decisions
17
