IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR · Johnson’s gov Brown’s gov Thatcher’s gov May’s gov tion...

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential

IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITORDECEMBER 2019


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public3

Voting Intention:December 2019

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +9Conservative lead = +12

44%

32%

13%

2%

3%

6%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Brexit Party

Green

Other

42%

33%

13%

2%

3%

7%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Brexit Party

Green

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections, registered to vote and answers

reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency = 1,244. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the

historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in

3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | December 2019 | Version 1 | Public

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

y 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 1

5

Au

g 1

5

Se

p 1

5

Oct 15

No

v 1

5

De

c 1

5

Ja

n 1

6

Fe

b 1

6

Ma

r 1

6

Ap

r 16

Ma

y 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 1

6

Au

g 1

6

Se

p 1

6

Oct 16

No

v 1

6

De

c 1

6

Ja

n 1

7

Fe

b 1

7

Ma

r 1

7

Ap

r 17

Ma

y 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 1

7

Au

g 1

7

Se

p 1

7

Oct 17

No

v 1

7

De

c 1

7

Ja

n 1

8

Fe

b 1

8

Ma

r 1

8

Ap

r 18

Ma

y 1

8

Ju

n 1

8

Ju

l 1

8

Au

g 1

8

Se

p 1

8

Oct 18

No

v 1

8

De

c 1

8

Ja

n 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Ma

r 1

9

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oct 19

No

v 1

9

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)May as PM

(July 16)

Headline voting intention:Since 2015 General Election

4

44%Conservative

%

December ‘19

Johnson as PM

(July 19)

De

c 1

9

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

32%Labour

General Election



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan 0

4

Ap

r 0

4

Jul 04

Oct 04

Jan 0

5

Ap

r 0

5

Jul 05

Oct 05

Jan 0

6

Ap

r 0

6

Jul 06

Oct 06

Jan 0

7

Ap

r 0

7

Jul 07

Oct 07

Jan 0

8

Ap

r 0

8

Jul 08

Oct 08

Jan 0

9

Ap

r 0

9

Jul 09

Oct 09

Jan 1

0

Ap

r 1

0

Jul 10

Oct 10

Jan 1

1

Ap

r 1

1

Jul 11

Oct 11

Jan 1

2

Ap

r 1

2

Jul 12

Oct 12

Jan 1

3

Ap

r 1

3

Jul 13

Oct 13

Jan 1

4

Ap

r 1

4

Jul 14

Oct 14

Jan 1

5

Ap

r 1

5

Jul 15

Oct 15

Jan 1

6

Ap

r 1

6

Jul 16

Oct 16

Jan 1

7

Ap

r 1

7

Jul 17

Oct 17

Jan 1

8

Ap

r 1

8

Jul 18

Oct 18

Jan 1

9

Ap

r 1

9

Jul 19

Oct 19

Miliband elected

(Sept 10)Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)

Johnson as PM

(July 19)Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM

(June 07)

Headline voting intention:January ‘04 –December ’19

%

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General

Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019


Dec ‘19

44% Conservative

32% Labour

13% Lib Dem

2% The Brexit Party

3% Green

0% UKIP

General Election

5

Dec 1

9



SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS


Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: December 2019

7

68%

8%

24%

51%

20%

29%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

+8% swing from Oct 2019

-2% swing from Oct 2019

+3% swing from Oct 2019

Net=-44 Net= -22 Net=-49Net=-20%

56%

7%

36%23%

5%

72%

Nigel Farage

56%

14%

30%

Net=-26



Base: 1,545 British adults 18+ 2-4 December 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and

% “dissatisfied”


Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job.

as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party/Leader of the liberal democrats/ leader of the Brexit party?


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction

Net = -20

December 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ju

l-19

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

36%Satisfied

7%Don’t know

56%Dissatisfied

July 2019 – December 2019

36%Satisfied

56%Dissatisfied

Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

36%

7%

56%


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

Net = +68%

December 2019

82%Satisfied

7%Don’t know

14%Dissatisfied



Base: 574 Conservative party supporters 18+, 2-4 December 2019

9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ju

l-19

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

82%Satisfied

14%Dissatisfied

82%

7%

14%


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)

10

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Blair

Major

Cameron

Johnson

Brown

Thatcher

May


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?


Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)

11

Blair’s gov

Major’s gov

Cameron’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Brown’s gov

Thatcher’s gov

May’s gov Net s

atis

factio

n

Johnson

Number of months after assuming government


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way The government is running the country?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction

Net = -44%

December 2019

24%Satisfied

8%Don’t know

68%Dissatisfied

September 2015 – December 2019

24%Satisfied

68%Dissatisfied


12

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour

Party?

24%

8%

68%


Corbyn

Corbyn

Blair

Smith

Kinnock

Miliband

Foot

Cameron

Duncan-smith

Hague

Howard

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)

Net

satisfa

ctio

n

Number of months after becoming opposition leader


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Se

p-1

9

De

c-1

9

Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

Net = +24%

December 2019

57%Satisfied

8%Don’t know

33%Dissatisfied

September 2015 – December 2019

57%Satisfied

33%Dissatisfied

Base: 403 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the

Labour party?

De

c 1

9

57%

8%

33%


Jo Swinson: Satisfaction

December 2019


15

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jo Swinson is doing his job as leader of the

Liberal Democrats?

Net = -22

29%Satisfied

20%Don’t know

51%Dissatisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ju

l-19

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9


29%Satisfied

51%Dissatisfied

29%

20%

51%


ECONOMICOPTIMISM


Economic Optimism Index

EOI = -29

December 2019 January 2007– December 2019

21%Get better

20%Stay the same


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-0

7

Jul-07

Dec-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Dec-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Dec-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Jan-1

1

May-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan-1

2

May-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan-1

3

May-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan-1

4

May-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Oct-

15

Feb

-16

Jun-1

6

Oct-

16

Feb

-17

Jul-17

Jan-1

8

Jun-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jun-1

9

Dec-1

9

50%Get worse

50%

20%

21%

9%

50%Get worse

20%Stay the

same

21%Improve

9%Don’t know

17

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get

worse over the next 12 months?


Economic Optimism Index(1998-2019)

18

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Ja

n 1

99

8

Oct 19

98

Ju

l 1

999

Ap

r 20

00

Ja

n 2

00

1

Oct 20

01

Ju

l 2

002

Ap

r 20

03

Ja

n 2

00

4

Oct 20

04

Ju

l 2

005

Ap

r 20

06

Ja

n 2

00

7

Oct 20

07

Ju

l 2

008

Ap

r 20

09

Ja

n 2

01

0

Oct 20

10

Ju

l 2

011

Ap

r 20

12

Ja

n 2

01

3

Oct 20

13

Ju

l 2

014

Ap

r 20

15

Ja

n 2

01

6

Oct 20

16

Ju

l 2

017

Ap

r 20

18

Ja

n 2

01

9

Oct 20

19

Base: 1,545, British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net optimism

-29%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get

worse over the next 12 months?

Dec 2

01

9


VOTINGDECISIONS


Which party to vote for? % Definitely decided

Have you definitely decided to vote for one party or is there a chance you may change your mind before

you vote?

20

63%

67%

78%

80%

59%

72%

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jun-17

Nov-19

Dec-19

56%

57%

76%

80%

54%

69%

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jun-17

Nov-19

Dec-19

78%

77%

75%

86%

71%

80%

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jun-17

Nov-19

Dec-19

63%

67%

78%

80%

40%

61%

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jun-17

Nov-19

Dec-19

Among all

Among Labour party supporters Among Liberal Democrat supporters

Among Conservative party supporters

Dec-19

Dec-19 Dec-19

Dec-19

Base: All British adults 18+ giving a voting intention (1,371), Conservative supporters (574), Labour supporters (403), Lib Dem supporters (189), 2-4 December 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor


Which party to vote for? % May change mind

49%

30%

56%

51% 50%

41%38%

34%36%

32%

20%

40%

27%

Apr-1

0

May-1

0

Au

g-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-1

5

Apr-1

5

Apr-1

5

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9Have you definitely decided to vote for one party or is there a chance you

may change your mind before you vote?

Cameron re-elected

(May 15)

Cameron elected

(May 10)

May elected

(June 17)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All British adults 18+ giving a voting intention (1,371)

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | December 2019 | Public

Who might you vote for instead?

Among all who might

change their mind

If you do change your mind about voting for this party, which party would you vote for instead?

22

Base: 379 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention who might change their mind, 122 Conservative party supporters who might change their mind, 124 Labour

supporters who might change their mind, Liberal Democrats who might change their mind (73) 2-4 December 2019

*Small base size

Among Conservative supporters

who might change their mindAmong Labour party supporters

who might change their mind

8%

17%

21%

7%

6%

4%

4%

28%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Brexit Party

Green

UKIP

Would not vote

Don't know

20%

15%

18%

5%

7%

6%

24%

Labour

Lib Dems

BrexitParty

Green

UKIP

Would notvote

Don't know

Among Lib Dem supporters who

might change their mind*

9%

41%

3%

6%

2%

4%

30%

Conservative

Lib Dems

Brexit Party

Green

UKIP

Would notvote

Don't know

13%

34%

-

9%

-

2%

33%

Conservative

Labour

Brexit Party

Green

UKIP

Would notvote

Don't know



KEY ISSUES


Which issues will help decide your vote?

Looking ahead to the next

General Election, which, if any,

issues do you think will be very

important to you in helping you

decide which party to vote for?

24

7%

7%

7%

10%

10%

11%

22%

52%

55%

Don’t know

Asylum and immigration

Taxation

Crime and anti-social behaviour

Managing the economy / economic situation

Protecting the enviroment/climate change

Education / Schools

Healthcare / NHS / hospitals

Europe / EU / Brexit

Change

since Nov

-8

+11

+1

0

-4

+1

+3

0


0



Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to

you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

25

10%

11%

22%

52%

55%

Crime

Environment

Education

Health

Brexit

11%

13%

29%

43%

71%

Poverty

Environment

Education

Brexit

Health

15%

16%

19%

45%

68%

Crime

Economy

Education

Health

Brexit

11%

20%

25%

52%

75%

Economy

Environment

Education

Health

Brexit

Among all

Among Labour party supporters Among Liberal Democrat supporters

Among Conservative party supporters

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All British adults 18+ (1,545), Conservative supporters (574), Labour supporters (403), Lib Dem supporters (189), 2-4 December 2019


Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very

important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

26


14%

50%

39%

3%

7%

11%

6%

2%

26%

23%

5%

32%

12%14%

7%

47%

24%

5%

35%

16%

19%

42% 43%

22%

2%

16%

12% 12%

55%

52%

22%

11% 10%

7% 7%

Europe Healthcare Education Environment Managing theeconomy

Taxation Asylum andimmigration

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorGE2015GE2010GE2001 GE2017 GE2019

Base: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019


PARTIES AND ISSUES


Who would make the most capable Prime Minister?

Who do you think would make

the most capable Prime Minister,

the Conservatives’ Boris

Johnson, or Labour’s Jeremy

Corbyn?

28

Boris Johnson

57%

61%

56%

50%

47%

46%

46%

51%

52%

50%

49%

47%

28%

23%

29%

35%

36%

38%

37%

33%

27%

29%

30%

31%

Sept 2015

April 2017

May 2017

June 2017

June 2017

July 2017

Sept 2018

June 2019

July 2019

Sept 2019

Nov 2019

Dec 2019

Theresa May

David Cameron

Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn

Dec 19






15%

19%

19%

22%

24%

26%

28%

32%

34%

38%

38%

38%

44%

48%

16%

38%

43%

39%

42%

31%

40%

31%

23%

26%

23%

20%

20%

15%

Environment

Care for older and disabled people

Poverty and inequality

Housing

Benefits

Pensions

Healthcare

Education

Asylum and immigration

Taxation

Crime and anti-social behaviour

Handling Britain's future relationship with the EU

Managing the economy

Defence

Best party on key issues

Which party do you think

has the best policies on …

the Conservatives, Labour,

Liberal Democrats, or

some other party?

Conservative party Labour party


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r 1

7

Jun 1

7

Au

g 1

7

Oct 17

Dec 1

7

Feb

18

Ap

r 1

8

Jun 1

8

Au

g 1

8

Oct 18

Dec 1

8

Feb

19

Ap

r 1

9

Jun 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Oct 19

Dec 1

9

Best Party on Brexit

%


Dec ‘19

38% Conservative

20% Labour

8% Lib Dem

30

Which party do you think has the best policies on handling Britain's future

relationship with the European Union?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar

88

Mar

89

Mar

90

Mar

91

Mar

92

Mar

93

Mar

94

Mar

95

Mar

96

Mar

97

Mar

98

Mar

99

Mar

00

Mar

01

Mar

02

Mar

03

Mar

04

Mar

05

Mar

06

Mar

07

Mar

08

Mar

09

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16

Mar

17

Mar

18

Mar

19

Blair re-elected

(June 2001)

Blair elected for 3rd time

(May 2005)Cameron elected

(May 2010)

Cameron re-elected

(May 2015)

Major elected

(Apr 1992)

Blair elected

(May 1997)

May elected

(June 2017)

Dec19

Best Party on Healthcare

%


Dec ‘19

28% Conservative

40% Labour

8% Lib Dem

31

Which party do you think has the best policies on healthcare, the Conservatives,

Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct 77

Oct 78

Oct 79

Oct 80

Oct 81

Oct 82

Oct 83

Oct 84

Oct 85

Oct 86

Oct 87

Oct 88

Oct 89

Oct 90

Oct 91

Oct 92

Oct 93

Oct 94

Oct 95

Oct 96

Oct 97

Oct 98

Oct 99

Oct 00

Oct 01

Oct 02

Oct 03

Oct 04

Oct 05

Oct 06

Oct 07

Oct 08

Oct 09

Oct 10

Oct 11

Oct 12

Oct 13

Oct 14

Oct 15

Oct 16

Oct 17

Oct 18

Oct 19

Blair re-elected

(June 2001)

Blair 2nd re-election

(May 2005)

Cameron elected

(May 2010)

Cameron re-elected

(May 2015)

Major elected

(Apr 1992)

Blair elected

(May 1997)

May elected

(June 2017)

Dec1

9

Thatcher 2nd re-election

(Jun 1987)

Thatcher re-elected

(Jun 1987)

Thatcher elected

(May 1979)

Best Party on Education

%


Dec ‘19

32% Conservative

31% Labour

9% Lib Dem

32

Which party do you think has the best policies on education, the Conservatives,

Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar

90

Mar

91

Mar

92

Mar

93

Mar

94

Mar

95

Mar

96

Mar

97

Mar

98

Mar

99

Mar

00

Mar

01

Mar

02

Mar

03

Mar

04

Mar

05

Mar

06

Mar

07

Mar

08

Mar

09

Mar

10

Mar

11

Mar

12

Mar

13

Mar

14

Mar

15

Mar

16

Mar

17

Mar

18

Mar

19

Blair re-elected

(June 2001)Blair 2nd re-election

(May 2005)

Cameron elected

(May 2010)

Cameron re-elected

(May 2015)

Major elected

(Apr 1992)

Blair elected

(May 1997)

May elected

(June 2017)

Dec 1

9

Best Party on the Economy

%


Dec ‘19

44% Conservative

20% Labour

8% Lib Dem

33

Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy?


Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,545 British adults 18+, 2-4 December 2019

Best party at looking after various interests

Which political party,

if any, do you think

would be best at….

11%

21%

24%

17%

Other

LiberalDemocrats

Labour

Conservatives

Looking after

the interests of

women

5%

8%

44%

26%

Other

LiberalDemocrats

Labour

Conservatives

Looking after

the interests of

working people

6%

18%

23%

25%

Other

LiberalDemocrats

Labour

Conservatives

Protecting

people against

prejudice and

discrimination



31% 24% 40%

Second referendum on Scottish Independence

If the Scottish National

Party wins most seats in

Scotland in the General

Election, do you think

there should or should not

be a second referendum

on Scottish independence

next year, or do you have

no feelings either way?

There should be one There should not be one


No feelings either way

Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Glenn Gottfried

Research Manager

[email protected]

Keiran Pedley

Research Director

[email protected]

Ipsos MORIDecember 2019 Political Monitor

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