Published by www.metalbulletinresearch.com MONTHLY UPDATE International market analysis of seamless OCTG and linepipe MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MARKET TRACKER ISSUE 101 17 February 2014 SEAMLESS LINEPIPE PRICES ($/TONNE) SOURCE: METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014 Q1-2015 US API 5LB linepipe E. Europe API 5LB linepipe W. Europe 5LB linepipe China API 5LB linepipe Forecast CONTENTS Current and forecast seamless tube and pipe prices 3 Americas market analysis 4 Europe and CIS market analysis 7 Middle East and North Africa market analysis 9 Asia market analysis 11 Seamless capacity developments and news 14 US OCTG buying quiet ahead of preliminary duty determinations on imported material Seamless OCTG prices are now around $1,365/ton for API 5CT J/K55 tonnage, down about $10-15/ton from January, with P110 casing at around $1,950-2,000/ton at distributors. MBR surmises that a significant price recovery is not expected to take hold until existing inventories are worked through the market, which is likely to be mid-year. Japanese OCTG prices under pressure… Japanese OCTG exporters are experiencing margin pressure in the premium connection market, with prices slipping by up to $100/tonne from last month to $2,300 fob for L80. We do not believe this trend is likely to change in the next few months as the MENA market, the leading export market for Japanese producers, faces competitive pricing pressure. …as Brazilian material challenges for market share In the MENA market, prices for L80 grades of casing at a 7” or 9 5/8” with a non- Chinese premium connection continue to be placed under pressure. Prices are now reaching as low as $2,000/tonne cfr for Brazilian-origin material. This time last year, the same grades with the same connections were being sold at around $2,500/tonne cfr. Chinese premium connections start to build global acceptance The Chinese, led by TPCO, are now making significant advances in the premium connection market, especially in MENA. Within the last 6 months, TPCO has now been trialled and won a significant order from the UAE’s ADNOC – ADCO division. formerly known as Seamless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker
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MONTHLYUPDATEInternational marketanalysis of seamless OCTG and linepipe
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPEMARKET TRACKER
Issue 101
17 February 2014
seamless lInepIpe prIces ($/tonne) Source: Metal Bulletin reSearch
Current and forecast seamless tube and pipe prices 3
Americas market analysis 4
Europe and CIS market analysis 7
Middle East and North Africa market analysis 9
Asia market analysis 11
Seamless capacity developments and news 14
US OCTG buying quiet ahead of preliminary duty determinations on imported materialSeamless OCTG prices are now around $1,365/ton for API 5CT J/K55 tonnage, down about $10-15/ton from January, with P110 casing at around $1,950-2,000/ton at distributors. MBR surmises that a significant price recovery is not expected to take hold until existing inventories are worked through the market, which is likely to be mid-year.
Japanese OCTG prices under pressure…Japanese OCTG exporters are experiencing margin pressure in the premium connection market, with prices slipping by up to $100/tonne from last month to $2,300 fob for L80. We do not believe this trend is likely to change in the next few months as the MENA market, the leading export market for Japanese producers, faces competitive pricing pressure.
…as Brazilian material challenges for market shareIn the MENA market, prices for L80 grades of casing at a 7” or 9 5/8” with a non-Chinese premium connection continue to be placed under pressure. Prices are now reaching as low as $2,000/tonne cfr for Brazilian-origin material. This time last year, the same grades with the same connections were being sold at around $2,500/tonne cfr.
Chinese premium connections start to build global acceptanceThe Chinese, led by TPCO, are now making significant advances in the premium connection market, especially in MENA. Within the last 6 months, TPCO has now been trialled and won a significant order from the UAE’s ADNOC – ADCO division.
formerly known as Seamless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Tracker
Note: unless specified OCTG prices relate to casing of a 7" OD
Feb-14 Jan-14 Feb-13
seamless octG and lInepIpe INDICATORS
Current and Forecast Price data is only available to
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SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR
crude oil spot prices
SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR
long-term natural gas prices
SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR
seamless market indicators
-20
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Jul09
Dec09
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oct10
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aug11
Jan12
Jun12
nov12
apr13
Sep13
Feb14
Brent-Wti spread, $/bbl
Brent crude, $/bbl
Wti, $/bbl
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apr13
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Feb14
n. Gas, henry hub, $/mmbtu
100-day moving av.
200-day moving av.
-7.8%
-4.2%
-7.1%
-9.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
-11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1%
MB iron ore index
Japan hMS no.2 (tokyo)
uS hMS no.1
MB Scrap index (turkey)
uS and canada rig count
international rig count
seamless octG and lInepIpe INDICATORS
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
4 amerIcas MarKet analYSiS
SOURCE: Baker Hughes
us land wells/rig
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SOURCE: MBR
us imports of seamless casing and tubing (‘000 tonnes)
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Market waits for duty announcementMBR recently attended the annual convention of the NASPD, and attendees relayed to us their optimism for rising demand for OCTG and linepipe this year. The impending announcement on preliminary duties on OCTG imports from the nine countries named in the trade case filing, however, also continues to weigh on market sentiment. At the time of writing, the preliminary duties, due mid-February, have yet to be announced and could be delayed yet again by a severe snowstorm which closed many government offices in eastern USA. Market participants remain uncertain if the duties will be set at levels high enough to reduce the tonnage on offer at very low prices.
As they relayed their concerns to us, many repeated the caveat that these long-awaited preliminary duties are just preliminary and could change drastically upon final determination, due in April. In 2008, the preliminary duties placed on Chinese OCTG were small relative to the final duty determination. Nevertheless, the duties that are placed on imports from these countries will now, at least, require a deposit based on the preliminary determination. A decision on the critical circumstances complaint is not expected at this time.
OCTG prices take a modest step back in FebruaryThe seamless OCTG market remains at a relative standstill as buyers and sellers wait for an indication of the magnitude of the duties in imported material, both seamless and welded. We witnessed a rise in inventories late in 2013 which took place as a result of anticipation of a slowdown in the market early in the first quarter of this year.
Buyers are still well-supplied and are not returning to the market until they have a better understanding of the duties they may face on imported material. As a result, domestic seamless OCTG pricing in February declined slightly due to a slowdown in activity. Prices are now around $1,365/ton for API 5CT J/K55 tonnage with P110 casing at around $1,950-2,000/ton at distributors.
The tonnage of available material coupled with the lack of deals being finished so far this year continue to drive prices to a near-term floor. Moreover, even after the duties are announced, MBR expects the market to take some time to work through the excess before prices can begin to significantly rebound.
OCTG imports ended 2013 higher than arrivals in the first half of the year while preliminary import statistics for January suggest a continuation of that trend. US seamless OCTG imports in the August-November period climbed 20% year-over-year, compared to August-November 2012 imports, while imports for the full eleven months of 2013 displayed a year-over-year decline of 11% from the January-November 2012 period.
US seamless OCTG prices struggle ahead of duty announcement
MBR Outlook Seamless OCTG prices declined in early February given the lack of activity associated with market participants refraining from making deals in anticipation of preliminary duty determinations on imported material. Meanwhile, inventories and available material on offer are plentiful giving buyers no reason to rush into the market even when duties are announced. MBR surmises that once the duties are announced, the market will begin to display some price stability, but a significant price recovery is not expected to take hold until existing inventories are worked through the market. A mid-year rebound is anticipated. Longer-term, seamless OCTG is poised to take back market share from welded OCTG as unconventional gas drilling is expected to rise.
14001450150015501600165017001750
Q12012
Q32012
Q12013
Q32013
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Q32014
Q12015
$/to
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us J/K55 casInG prIces
Source: MBr
WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
5amerIcas MarKet analYSiS
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
Producers eye strengthening demand…Despite the concern over imports and oversupply in the local markets, OCTG market participants tell us that the demand outlook remains promising especially for the higher-grade seamless products. In the USA, seamless and welded OCTG tend to compete for market share in about 70% of current applications. Over time, MBR has noted that welded OCTG apparent consumption in the USA has risen to around 50% of total, suggesting that seamless is still preferred in some applications where welded could potentially be used. Nevertheless, welded OCTG is gaining traction.
With the increase in unconventional drilling, especially for natural gas, seamless demand, as well as that for premium products, will likely rise at least as fast as welded OCTG consumption. Unconventional drilling for shale gas in the USA now accounts for just under 40% of total US natural gas drilling and is expected to increase to around 50% over the next ten years, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Tight oil will increase from 45% now to around 50% of oil drilling by 2025, but could retreat toward 40% following 2025. Coal-bed methane and tight gas production, both unconventional drilling applications, now account for about one third of natural gas drilling, although their combined share is expected to fall to below 30% by 2040. The Marcellus shale play in the northeast USA potentially holds the largest unconventional natural gas reserves in the USA, and as the chart illustrates, we have already witnessed strong development in that area.
…but natural gas prices need supportMuch of this confidence in increased seamless demand from unconventional gas sources, however, still relies on the outlook for natural gas pricing. Indeed, natural gas prices will need to increase to over $4/mmBtu and consistently remain over that threshold for drilling rates to increase significantly. Since the development of the shale plays and the technology to exploit them, which began around 2008-09 – also the start of the latest recession and its associated prolonged slow recovery – US natural gas pricing has been, in general, lower and less volatile than prior to 2008.
Now, with the US economy on increasingly stable footing, natural gas demand is expected to rise and support higher pricing, and increased drilling rates. US natural gas Henry Hub spot prices in January averaged $4.71/mmBtu are averaging over $5/mmBtu through early February. While much of the short-term increase is attributed to cold weather and inventory withdraws, pipe and tube producers point to a structural shift in natural gas demand which will keep prices higher than in recent years. Market participants at a recent industry event told MBR that natural gas prices will not give back all the gains in January and February once the cold weather retreats as demand from industrial uses will support pricing. In fact, the EIA forecasts US Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $4.17/mmBtu in 2014, up from $3.73/mmBtu in 2013.
Brazil increases its exports of OCTG…As discussed in the Middle East section this month of our tracker, exports of OCTG from Brazil to that region have been creating price pressure in the premium connection OCTG market.
Producers eye strengthening demand…Despite the concern over imports and oversupply in the local markets, OCTG market participants tell us that the demand outlook remains promising especially for the higher-grade seamless products. In the USA, seamless and welded OCTG tend to compete for market share in about 70% of current applications. Over time, MBR has noted that welded OCTG apparent consumption in the USA has risen to around 50% of total, suggesting that seamless is still preferred in some applications where welded could potentially be used. Nevertheless, welded OCTG is gaining traction.
With the increase in unconventional drilling, especially for natural gas, seamless demand, as well as that for premium products, will likely rise at least as fast as welded OCTG consumption. Unconventional drilling for shale gas in the USA now accounts for just under 40% of total US natural gas drilling and is expected to increase to around 50% over the next ten years, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Tight oil will increase from 45% now to around 50% of oil drilling by 2025, but could retreat toward 40% following 2025. Coal-bed methane and tight gas production, both unconventional drilling applications, now account for about one third of natural gas drilling, although their combined share is expected to fall to below 30% by 2040. The Marcellus shale play in the northeast USA potentially holds the largest unconventional natural gas reserves in the USA, and as the chart illustrates, we have already witnessed strong development in that area.
…but natural gas prices need supportMuch of this confidence in increased seamless demand from unconventional gas sources, however, still relies on the outlook for natural gas pricing. Indeed, natural gas prices will need to increase to over $4/mmBtu and consistently remain over that threshold for drilling rates to increase significantly. Since the development of the shale plays and the technology to exploit them, which began around 2008-09 – also the start of the latest recession and its associated prolonged slow recovery – US natural gas pricing has been, in general, lower and less volatile than prior to 2008.
Now, with the US economy on increasingly stable footing, natural gas demand is expected to rise and support higher pricing, and increased drilling rates. US natural gas Henry Hub spot prices in January averaged $4.71/mmBtu are averaging over $5/mmBtu through early February. While much of the short-term increase is attributed to cold weather and inventory withdraws, pipe and tube producers point to a structural shift in natural gas demand which will keep prices higher than in recent years. Market participants at a recent industry event told MBR that natural gas prices will not give back all the gains in January and February once the cold weather retreats as demand from industrial uses will support pricing. In fact, the EIA forecasts US Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $4.17/mmBtu in 2014, up from $3.73/mmBtu in 2013.
Brazil increases its exports of OCTG…As discussed in the Middle East section this month of our tracker, exports of OCTG from Brazil to that region have been creating price pressure in the premium connection OCTG market.
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MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
6 amerIcas MarKet analYSiS
WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
5amerIcas MarKet analYSiSAs shown in the chart there has been a rapid surge in OCTG exports from Brazil as Sumitomo and Vallourec’s new seamless mill has ramped up. Vallourec & Sumitomo Tubos Do Brasil (VSB) had its inauguration in September 2011. VSB is a seamless pipe mill with a total seamless pipe capacity of 600kt of which 50% is supplied by Vallourec and 50% is supplied by Sumitomo. This was Vallourec’s second seamless pipe mill in Brazil following their other 550kt seamless pipe mill in the country (VMB).
The tonnage of OCTG being exported from Brazil nearly doubled in 2012 compared to 2011 – increasing from 53kt up to 107kt. There was no slowdown in the export growth in 2013 when Brazil’s seamless OCTG exports hit over 200kt.
…with North America, EU and MENA the major export markets…The North American market has become the big export market for the mill, with exports to this region hitting around 60kt in 2013. The MENA region has gone from receiving nearly nothing in 2012 up to just under 40kt in 2013. The other major export market for the mill is the European market.
…following a slowdown in Brazilian demand since H2 2013The weak currency in Brazil in mid-2013 pushed the state owned oil company Petrobras over the past month to slow its exploration activity, which means fewer exploration wells. As can be seen in the chart, according to Baker Hughes, rig numbers in Brazil have dropped from just over 90 in June 2012 down to just over 50 in January 2014, a drop of some 45%, correlating with the weaker Brazilian real.
Vallourec has had a long standing co-operating with Petrobras dating back to 1954 to supply tubular goods to the Brazilian oil industry. In addition to a network of VAM licenses providing accessories, threading, repair and Inspection of VAM premium connections, VMB also has storage facilities at several of Petrobras exploration and production sites allowing VMB to deliver just-in-time delivery to Petrobras reducing the company’s storage costs and procurement lead times. Vallourec also has an R&D team with Petrobras to develop innovative solutions to cope with extreme drilling.The Brazilian Real is expected to continue to remain weak into the first half of 2014 suggesting that there will be no immediate slowdown in the exports of OCTG from Brazil.
SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR
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Brazil exports of seamless casing and tubing (‘000 tonnes)
SOURCE: Baker Huges and MBR
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Company Location Type Product '000 tons start-up
Vallourec Star Youngstown, oh seamless octG 350 2013Welded tube of canada lackawanna, nY erW octG 350 2013oMK houston, tX erW octG 175 2013Borusan Baytown, tX erW octG 300 2014tPco Gregory, tX seamless octG 550 2015Prolamsa Bryan, tX erW octG/linepipe/Structural 300 2014tenaristamsa Veracruz, Mexico seamless octG 450 2014california Steel industries Fontana, ca erW linepipe/octG 400 2014halo Steel Pipe Mccleary, Wa erW octG 150 2014Benteler caddo, la seamless octG 250 2015alita uSa Buffalo, nY erW octG 150 2015Ptc hopkinsville, KY seamless octG 100 2015tenaris Bay city, tX seamless octG 640 2016Source: Metal Bulletin research
New and planned North American tube and pipe capacity
As shown in the chart there has been a rapid surge in OCTG exports from Brazil as Sumitomo and Vallourec’s new seamless mill has ramped up. Vallourec & Sumitomo Tubos Do Brasil (VSB) had its inauguration in September 2011. VSB is a seamless pipe mill with a total seamless pipe capacity of 600kt of which 50% is supplied by Vallourec and 50% is supplied by Sumitomo. This was Vallourec’s second seamless pipe mill in Brazil following their other 550kt seamless pipe mill in the country (VMB).
The tonnage of OCTG being exported from Brazil nearly doubled in 2012 compared to 2011 – increasing from 53kt up to 107kt. There was no slowdown in the export growth in 2013 when Brazil’s seamless OCTG exports hit over 200kt.
…with North America, EU and MENA the major export markets…The North American market has become the big export market for the mill, with exports to this region hitting around 60kt in 2013. The MENA region has gone from receiving nearly nothing in 2012 up to just under 40kt in 2013. The other major export market for the mill is the European market.
…following a slowdown in Brazilian demand since H2 2013The weak currency in Brazil in mid-2013 pushed the state owned oil company Petrobras over the past month to slow its exploration activity, which means fewer exploration wells. As can be seen in the chart, according to Baker Hughes, rig numbers in Brazil have dropped from just over 90 in June 2012 down to just over 50 in January 2014, a drop of some 45%, correlating with the weaker Brazilian real.
Vallourec has had a long standing co-operating with Petrobras dating back to 1954 to supply tubular goods to the Brazilian oil industry. In addition to a network of VAM licenses providing accessories, threading, repair and Inspection of VAM premium connections, VMB also has storage facilities at several of Petrobras exploration and production sites allowing VMB to deliver just-in-time delivery to Petrobras reducing the company’s storage costs and procurement lead times. Vallourec also has an R&D team with Petrobras to develop innovative solutions to cope with extreme drilling.The Brazilian Real is expected to continue to remain weak into the first half of 2014 suggesting that there will be no immediate slowdown in the exports of OCTG from Brazil.
SOURCE: Bloomberg and MBR
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Brazil exports of seamless casing and tubing (‘000 tonnes)
SOURCE: Baker Huges and MBR
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Brazilian rig counts vs. exchange rate
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WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
7europe and cIs MarKet analYSiS
Russian OCTG demand hits 2M tonnes in 2013Rising demand expected in the Russian OCTG market in the next few months…The OCTG market goes from strength to strength in Russia this month, following its traditional seasonal trends. As of mid-February the market trend is positive. Traditionally in Russia the 3rd quarter of the years see’s the lowest seasonal demand for OCTG procurement while the 1st quarter see’s the peak in demand. The bulk of Russia’s OCTG drilling takes place in the north east of the country which experiences harsh winter conditions. In the third quarter, frozen ground has thawed making it impossible for trucks to deliver OCTG to the production fields.
…as oil and gas majors approve procurement budgets for 2014The reason for the peak in the first quarter is because procurement budgets are approved by the oil and gas majors typically by January 1st. And straight after this period they look to source OCTG and deliver it to their warehouses and stock yards in close proximity to their production fields.
This year there is a slight change. Due to the mild winter, the peak in OCTG consumption is expected to shift slightly later towards the end of the first/ beginning of the second quarter. Therefore, traders are expecting an increase of demand for OCTG within the next few weeks. Current domestic spot price for the most common casing grades in Russia GOST632-80 146mm OD with an OTTG/OTTM/Buttress connection to Grade D/K (this is equivalent to API 5CT J/K55) is 48,000 rubles/tonne ($1,363/tonne) which includes VAT.
Russia’s oil production reaches a new high stimulating OCTG demand…In 2013 oil production has grown by 1.3% reaching a new record level for the post-Soviet era. Natural gas output has grown by 2.1%. New tax regulations adopted in 2013 have also encouraged oil & gas companies to invest in new and/or complicated fields. Therefore, we believe that the requirements for proprietary grades and premium connections are now growing in the domestic Russian market.
Russia’s natural gas production also increased in 2013, rising by 2.1% to 668 bcm, this follows a 2.3% decline in 2012.
…with the market consuming 2Mt in 2013…These strong growths in hydrocarbon production coupled with high oil prices have created strong market fundamentals leading to an impressive
MBR Outlook Russia has moved to become the third largest OCTG market in the world any by far the largest OCTG market in the Eurasia region. The country is entering its peak buying season and we believe that demand will continue to increase year-on-year as Russia continues to see its oil and gas companies invest in new field developments.
We believe due to the mild winter the buying season is slightly later than usual, as a result in the next couple of months we think purchasing will continue to increase. We also think that China might look to increase its OCTG exports into the Russian market where possible which could add some price pressure for the domestic Russian mills.
However, unlike the MENA and South East Asian markets, the Chinese presence here is considerably smaller and therefore the pricing pressure from China is unlikely to have as great an impact as it will in other OCTG markets around the world.
140014501500155016001650170017501800
Q12012
Q32012
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$/to
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european J/K55 casInG
SOURCE: MBr
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
8 europe and cIs MarKet analYSiS11% OCTG consumption growth reaching 2 Mt in 2013. Unlike the US market and in line with other markets such as China and MENA we believe seamless pipe dominates this OCTG sector and in 2013 we believe that ERW OCTG had no more than a 16% market share in the Russian domestic OCTG market.
…the third largest OCTG market in the worldAs a result, Russia was clearly the third largest OCTG market in the world in 2013 behind the USA and China and significantly larger than the MENA market.
OCTG imports into Russia start to creep up…The increasing market size has not just benefited local OCTG produces such as TMK and ChelPipe, in 2013 seamless OCTG imports have grown by 52% reaching 323kt compared to 218kt in 2012. As a result seamless imports accounted for around 16% of all market OCTG demand in the country up from 12% in 2012.
…with China significantly increasing its market share…China is becoming a prominent market player in the Russian OCTG market with its total market share of the whole market reaching around 8%. As a result, the share of Chinese material in total OCTG imports coming into the country has grown from 16% in 2012 up to 48% (see chart).
We understand that Lukoil, in particular, has been buying Chinese OCTG for its Russian operations. This month, Chinese API 5CT casing N80 with a premium connection is currently arriving in the Central Russian market at around $1,400/tonne CFR. Again, as we have seen in Asia and MENA this month, these prices are very competitive compared to the local domestic producers.
Lukoil is the second largest oil producer in Russia with a 16% market share in 2013 behind the market leader Rosneft with a 30% market share. Other noticeable oil producers in the
country include Surgutneftegas with a 12% market share and TNK BP with a 7% market share. In the gas markets, one producer – Gazprom – completely dominates gas production accounting for just under 74% of all production in 2013.
Lukoil is also understood to be leading the way in premium connection usage for seamless OCTG in Russia and others are understood to be considering to follow with Rosneft increasingly interested.
…Kazakhstan is also seeing a surge in Chinese OCTG importsChina has also been increasing its market share in the OCTG markets in Central Asia as is shown in the chart. CNPC has a significant presence in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with many JV’s in drilling and linepipe operations. According to estimations up to 30% of Kazakhstan’s oil production is now controlled by Chinese companies allowing Chinese OCTG easy access to this market. As mentioned in last month’s welded publication, the third Central Asian to Chine pipe line is currently being constructed allowing more gas to flow from Central Asia through to China itself.
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
tmK exports of seamless octG (‘000 tonnes)
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In May 2012, TMK won a large seamless OCTG order to KOC in Kuwait
WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
7europe and cIs MarKet analYSiS11% OCTG consumption growth reaching 2 Mt in 2013. Unlike the US market and in line with other markets such as China and MENA we believe seamless pipe dominates this OCTG sector and in 2013 we believe that ERW OCTG had no more than a 16% market share in the Russian domestic OCTG market.
…the third largest OCTG market in the worldAs a result, Russia was clearly the third largest OCTG market in the world in 2013 behind the USA and China and significantly larger than the MENA market.
OCTG imports into Russia start to creep up…The increasing market size has not just benefited local OCTG produces such as TMK and ChelPipe, in 2013 seamless OCTG imports have grown by 52% reaching 323kt compared to 218kt in 2012. As a result seamless imports accounted for around 16% of all market OCTG demand in the country up from 12% in 2012.
…with China significantly increasing its market share…China is becoming a prominent market player in the Russian OCTG market with its total market share of the whole market reaching around 8%. As a result, the share of Chinese material in total OCTG imports coming into the country has grown from 16% in 2012 up to 48% (see chart).
We understand that Lukoil, in particular, has been buying Chinese OCTG for its Russian operations. This month, Chinese API 5CT casing N80 with a premium connection is currently arriving in the Central Russian market at around $1,400/tonne CFR. Again, as we have seen in Asia and MENA this month, these prices are very competitive compared to the local domestic producers.
Lukoil is the second largest oil producer in Russia with a 16% market share in 2013 behind the market leader Rosneft with a 30% market share. Other noticeable oil producers in the
country include Surgutneftegas with a 12% market share and TNK BP with a 7% market share. In the gas markets, one producer – Gazprom – completely dominates gas production accounting for just under 74% of all production in 2013.
Lukoil is also understood to be leading the way in premium connection usage for seamless OCTG in Russia and others are understood to be considering to follow with Rosneft increasingly interested.
…Kazakhstan is also seeing a surge in Chinese OCTG importsChina has also been increasing its market share in the OCTG markets in Central Asia as is shown in the chart. CNPC has a significant presence in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan with many JV’s in drilling and linepipe operations. According to estimations up to 30% of Kazakhstan’s oil production is now controlled by Chinese companies allowing Chinese OCTG easy access to this market. As mentioned in last month’s welded publication, the third Central Asian to Chine pipe line is currently being constructed allowing more gas to flow from Central Asia through to China itself.
In May 2012, TMK won a large seamless OCTG order to KOC in Kuwait
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mIddle east and north afrIca MarKet analYSiS
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Prices under pressure in the MENA premium connection marketPrices continue to fall for premium connection OCTG…Prices for L80 grades of casing at a 7” or 9 5/8” with a non-Chinese premium connection continue to be placed under pressure, with prices in MENA now reaching as low as $2,000/tonne cfr from Brazilian origin material. This time last year, the same grades with the same connections were being sold at around $2,500/tonne cfr.
…as offers from Brazil start to push down the marketAs Sumitomo and Vallourec continue to offer competitive priced material from the South American mill, this material is placing pressure on prices from other premium connection suppliers such as the domestic Japan mills themselves. This month, we understand that Japanese L80 casing at 7” and 9 5/8” OD is being offered now at around $2,300/tonne cfr into Jebel Ali, down from around $2,400-2.500/tonne cfr at the end of last year.
Our export data from Brazil (which runs through to December 2013) is still failing to show significant tonnages of OCTG being exported into the MENA region. However, we do not believe that the tonnages necessarily need to be high in order to place pressure on prices. Although Sumitomo and Vallourec are approved across the region by all end-users, their Brazilian mill itself is not necessarily approved by all companies operating. This could be another reason why we have not seen significant tonnages arriving directly from Brazil itself. There is also, of course, the possibility that the OCTG from Brazil is finished (threading/coupling etc.) in other countries closer to the MENA market.
TPCO start to make major breakthroughs in the use of their premium connections…The Chinese, led by TPCO, are now making significant advances in the premium connection market in MENA. Within the last 6 months, TPCO has now been trialled by the UAE’s ADNOC – ADCO division (Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations) for 9 5/8” casing with its TPCQ connection. We understand that this trial was successful and has resulted in TPCO winning a significant order to supply ADCO with its casing and premium connections amounting to 11,342 tonnes of 9 5/8”, L80 was the TPCQ box and pin connection.
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
chinese seamless octG exports to mena (‘tonne)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
apr 12 Jun 12 aug 12 oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 apr 13 Jun 13 aug 13 oct 13
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
uae seamless octG and linepipe imports (‘000 tonnes)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Feb12
apr12
Jun12
aug12
oct 12 Dec12
Feb13
apr13
Jun13
aug13
oct 13 Dec13
Seamless octG Seamless linepipe
MBR Outlook Despite aggressive prices that are being seen in the MENA premium market, underlying demand for OCTG across the region is strong and large orders are expected in the coming months. Saudi Aramco is expected to issue a significant size order (we understand in excess of 100kt) within the next couple of months. Rig count numbers themselves in Saudi are forecast to increase potentially by up to 30% this year driving demand for OCTG. The UAE’s ADNOC is also seeing strong activity with, its division, ADCO itself calling for a tender currently for casing and tubing at a significant tonnage.
With demand forecast to remain strong for OCTG in MENA in the next few months we forecast prices in the premium connection market will start to reach a floor and we could see some slight gains. This though will be dependent on how quickly Brazilian demand would recover removing competitive offering into MENA from here.
In the API OCTG market and the J/K 55 grades with such strong competition likely to remain from China as the country continues to heavily target exports to MENA, we do not expect a significant price recovery here in the short-term.
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
10 mIddle east and north afrIca MarKet analYSiSTPCO is now also in the process of being tested by ADNOC - ADMA division (Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company), responsible for a large percentage of the company’s offshore drilling. Along with ADMA, TPCO have also been successful in being trialled by KOC (Kuwait Oil Company) in Kuwait for 7” OCTG casing with their TPCQ premium connection.
…with large swathes of the region either trialling or using itTPCO began successfully penetrating the MENA premium connection market in November 2011 with they won an order with TOTAL in Qatar. Since this period, we understand that they have successfully supplied TOTAL in Yemen, Anglola and South Africa with the premium connection. The group has also supplied to OMV in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, though, remains a market that does not use the Chinese premium connection. We also understand that so far, Iraq has also had little uptake on this material.
Saudi Aramco itself is currently in the process of closing their 5 year-long agreements with domestic mills for OCTG supply (both seamless and welded) and their 2 year-long agreements with international mills.
China still very aggressive in the API market…In the non-premium OCTG market, China continues to dominate the supply of API connections and J/K 55 grades into Jebel Ali and the wider region. Offers continue to remain around $900/tonne cfr for 7” and 9 5/8” casing – although we are hearing of some offers being made below this level.
Similar grades and diameters of OCTG being offered from markets such as Russia and the Ukraine is higher at up to
$1,300/tonne cfr for casing up to a diameter of 13 3/8” OD, with less competitive prices, the Chinese tend to dominate in this market.
…although total OCTG exports have declined from the country to the region in 2013It is interesting to note that although China is the dominant force in the API market, the country’s presence in the MENA market appears to have declined. As is shown in the chart on Page 8, China’s exports of OCTG from Jan-Nov 2013 equalled 464kt. For the same period in 2012 the country exported some 639kt of OCTG, a decline therefore of 27% year-on-year.
Egypt, along with much of the Middle East seeing strong OCTG demandIt is not just the large-Arabian markets such as Saudi and the UAE that are seeing strengthening demand. Over in North Africa, Egypt is also posting strong growth and demand for OCTG. Despite the political tensions that have existed in the country over the last few years – the bulk of drilling in the country tend to be to the West in the desert away from hot-spots like Cairo and Alexandria (although some OCTG distributors themselves are based in Alexandria).
All rigs in the country are understood to be operational and not idle and stacked fuelling demand for OCTG in the country in 2014 which could hit close to 200kt.
TPCO as with the Arabian market is also active in the Egyptian market. The company has received orders for the P110 grade and L80 grade for its seamless OCTG casing from Petrobel, on of Egypt’s top oil and gas producing companies.
WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM FeBruarY 2014 MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer
9mIddle east and north afrIca MarKet analYSiSTPCO is now also in the process of being tested by ADNOC - ADMA division (Abu Dhabi Marine Operating Company), responsible for a large percentage of the company’s offshore drilling. Along with ADMA, TPCO have also been successful in being trialled by KOC (Kuwait Oil Company) in Kuwait for 7” OCTG casing with their TPCQ premium connection.
…with large swathes of the region either trialling or using itTPCO began successfully penetrating the MENA premium connection market in November 2011 with they won an order with TOTAL in Qatar. Since this period, we understand that they have successfully supplied TOTAL in Yemen, Anglola and South Africa with the premium connection. The group has also supplied to OMV in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, though, remains a market that does not use the Chinese premium connection. We also understand that so far, Iraq has also had little uptake on this material.
Saudi Aramco itself is currently in the process of closing their 5 year-long agreements with domestic mills for OCTG supply (both seamless and welded) and their 2 year-long agreements with international mills.
China still very aggressive in the API market…In the non-premium OCTG market, China continues to dominate the supply of API connections and J/K 55 grades into Jebel Ali and the wider region. Offers continue to remain around $900/tonne cfr for 7” and 9 5/8” casing – although we are hearing of some offers being made below this level.
Similar grades and diameters of OCTG being offered from markets such as Russia and the Ukraine is higher at up to
$1,300/tonne cfr for casing up to a diameter of 13 3/8” OD, with less competitive prices, the Chinese tend to dominate in this market.
…although total OCTG exports have declined from the country to the region in 2013It is interesting to note that although China is the dominant force in the API market, the country’s presence in the MENA market appears to have declined. As is shown in the chart on Page 8, China’s exports of OCTG from Jan-Nov 2013 equalled 464kt. For the same period in 2012 the country exported some 639kt of OCTG, a decline therefore of 27% year-on-year.
Egypt, along with much of the Middle East seeing strong OCTG demandIt is not just the large-Arabian markets such as Saudi and the UAE that are seeing strengthening demand. Over in North Africa, Egypt is also posting strong growth and demand for OCTG. Despite the political tensions that have existed in the country over the last few years – the bulk of drilling in the country tend to be to the West in the desert away from hot-spots like Cairo and Alexandria (although some OCTG distributors themselves are based in Alexandria).
All rigs in the country are understood to be operational and not idle and stacked fuelling demand for OCTG in the country in 2014 which could hit close to 200kt.
TPCO as with the Arabian market is also active in the Egyptian market. The company has received orders for the P110 grade and L80 grade for its seamless OCTG casing from Petrobel, on of Egypt’s top oil and gas producing companies.
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Japanese and Chinese seamless OCTG exports both fall in 2013Japanese premium connection prices come under pressure…Japanese prices for seamless OCTG with a premium connection are coming under pressure this month, especially with exports to the MENA region. Currently L80 casing at a 7” or 9 5/8” OD with a premium connection is being officially offered into the market at $2,400/tonne, however we think prices have actually fallen below this to around $2,200 - 2,300 fob.
…as prices fall in its key MENA export market…Japanese mills face the challenge of cheaper offers in the international markets from countries such as Brazil which are hitting key export markets for the Japanese such as the Middle East. In 2013, the MENA region became the largest export region for Japanese seamless OCTG exports accounting for 30% of exports or around 205kt.
…and demand slips in South East Asia and North America…Japan’s other two leading export markets for seamless OCTG saw declines in tonnage requirements in 2013, with North American demand slipping down to 108kt from 160kt in 2012. The South East Asian market - the country’s largest export market in 2012 shrank from 197kt down to 163kt. As a result, the country saw a total decline in seamless OCTG exports dropping from 728kt in 2012 down to 680kt in 2013, a drop of just over 6% year-on-year.
…with competitive Chinese premium connection prices also starting to cause pressureJapanese OCTG exporters are also starting to face increasing competition from China in the premium OCTG market. As we discuss in our Middle East analysis, TPCO is increasingly gaining acceptance for its premium connection. Chinese premium connections are significantly lower in price than Japanese material. For example, this month in China, the price of OCTG at a grade of 5CT P110 with a local premium connection is at $1,260/tonne for casing at a 5 ½” OD, this is around $1,000/tonne lower than Japanese prices.
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
Japanese seamless octG exports 2012-2013 (‘000 tonnes)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec12
Jan13
Feb13
Mar13
apr13
May13
Jun13
Jul13
aug13
Sep13
oct13
nov13
Dec13
roW Mena
SOURCE: ISSB and MBR
Japanese exports of seamless octG to mena countries (‘000 tonnes)
5
10
15
20
25
Jan12
Mar12
May12
Jul12
Sep12
nov12
Jan13
Mar13
May13
Jul13
Sep13
nov13
others KSa Kuwait oman uae
MBR Outlook Japanese OCTG exporters are finding pressure on their margins in the premium connection market currently. We do not believe this trend is likely to change in the next few months. The MENA market has become the leading export market for Japanese producers and it is this market that is seeing the greatest pricing pressure.
In the proprietary OCTG market in grades such as 13% Cr and CRA OCTG, Japanese prices are expected to remain strong due to limited international competition and strong demand from overseas.
Aggressive pricing from China with its OCTG exports is also unlikely to change in the next few months. The country will continue to dominate API exports to regions such as South East Asia and MENA. We do expect to see an increasing export of premium connections from the Chinese market in the coming months as more international end-users start trialling Chinese products. This is therefore likely to also keep some price pressure on premium connections from Japanese exporters.
Domestically, Chinese OCTG demand is expected to continue to grow but with such fierce competition from the supply side in the country no significant price increases are forecast in the coming months.
MBR SEAMLESS OCTG & LINEPIPE MarKet tracKer FeBruarY 2014 WWW.MetalBulletinreSearch.coM
12 asIa MarKet analYSiSOf course, you cannot at the moment make a direct like-for-like comparison between Japanese and Chinese premium connections. Japanese premium connections have had years and years of global end-use approval. The country dominates globally in the most technically challenging proprietary grades of OCTG such as 13% Cr and CRA grades. Even TPCO, the most advanced of Chinese premium connection manufacturer, has only limited international acceptance at the moment.
But, it is becoming increasingly noticeable how quickly Chinese producers are now moving into the premium connection market, a market that even only a few years back was thought to be pretty impenetrable. As a result, we think it’s going to become harder and harder for European, Japanese and American premium connection producers to continue to achieve such significant margins with just premium connections.
China finds more doors close for its seamless OCTG exports…There is, of course, great pressure for Chinese producers to find OCTG export markets with the USA closed to them. However, 2013 has not been a good year from this perspective. More countries have joined the USA in blocking imports of Chinese seamless OCTG including Canada, Mexico and Brazil.
..leading to declining OCTG exports in 2013 for the first time in 3 yearsAs a result, China’s exports of seamless OCTG have actually fallen in 2013 , following a similar pattern to what was
seen in Japan, although less severe. Chinese seamless OCTG exports dropped just over 1% year-on-year compared to 6% in Japan. As a result total exports in 2013 were at 4.23Mt down from 4.28Mt in 2012. This is the first decline in Chinese seamless OCTG exports in some three years. In order to try to maintain market share, there will be increasing pressure from the export markets for the Chinese mills to develop into higher-value projects.
Chinese domestic OCTG demand is strong though…Back at home, Chinese OCTG demand itself is now estimated to be around 4.5Mt. The market is the second largest OCTG consuming market in the world, behind the USA but now ahead of Russia and the MENA region. Domestic prices this months for J/K 55 casing at a 7” OD are at ¥5,800/tonne ($950/tonne).
…with CNPC dominating the marketWe understand that CNPC is the leading consumer of OCTG within China itself, controlling around 60% of demand for OCTG in the country, Sinopec are the second largest consumer with an estimated 35% market share with the rest of the market controlled by CNOOC. CNPC is thought to look to consume up to 1Mt of the OCTG it requires from mills that it has direct ownership in. The company has also signed a strategic co-operative relationship with TPCO, with the two companies signing a 20 year purchase agreement for OCTG in September of 2011.
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14 seamless capacIty DeveloPMentS anD neWS
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this issue was published on 17 february 2014. the next issue will be published on 17 march 2014.
CIS capacity to continue to rise through to 2017
z In 2013 CIS seamless capacity has increased by 200kt, this is due to:
z The re-launch and upgrade of the Rustavy seamless pipe mill in Georgia (Georgian Steel), which provided 60kt of seamless pipe capacity to the market.
z Chelpipe, who expanded seamless pipe capacity by 140kt
z Current forecasts suggest that the CIS will add a further 700kt of hot –rolled seamless pipe making capacity by 2017, compared to the 2012 level.
z In 2014, a new FQM seamless pipe mill will be launched in TMK Seversky which will help to add to this planned capacity which will provide 600kt of seamless pipe capacity to the CIS market. At the same time, Seversky will decommission in 2015 some of its existing older equipment – the capacity to be closed is still to be determined.
z In 2016, OMK will launch seamless pipe making capacity for the first time – a new entrant to the Russain market adding 350kt of capacity.
Published monthly by Metal Bulletin Research (MBR), the research and forecasting division of Metal Bulletin Ltd.
- The Five Year outlook for the Global OCTG industry
- Strategic Prospects for the Global Transmission Linepipe Market by type, size, range and grade
- The Five Year Outlook for the Small-diameter Linepipe Market (under 16” OD)
- A Strategic Outlook for the OCTG Heat Treatment, Threading, Coupling and Premium Connection Sectors out to 2020
- Steel Weekly Market Tracker
- Galvanised Steel and Tinplate Market Tracker
- Stainless Steels Monthly Tracker
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