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Lake County Cities Economic Opportunities Analysis

Project Overview

2

What is Goal 9?

§ Statewide Planning Goal for Economic Development

“To provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon's citizens.”

3

Why do an Economic Opportunities Analysis?

§ Legal requirements - Goal 9 – Economy§ Economic opportunities analysis

§ Industrial and commercial development policies

§ Identify land deficits§ Designation of lands for employment

§ Understand existing conditions and forecast future conditions to inform:§ Economic development strategy§ Land use policy

§ Coordination4

Overview of the EOA Work Program

§ Inventory of buildable commercial and industrial land§ Information about characteristics of vacant land

§ Forecast Employment Growth§ Understand Lake County’s competitive advantages§ Identify potential growth industries§ Forecast employment and land needs

§ Update economic development strategies and policies

5

Outline of the EOA DocumentChapter Discussion Timeline

Executive Summary/Chapter 1. Introduction No substantive information to discuss

Chapter 2. Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth

PAC 1

Chapter 3. Employment Growth and Site Needs

PAC 1, 2, Public Meeting, PAC 3

Chapter 4. Buildable Lands Inventory PAC 2

Chapter 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions

PAC 2, Public Meeting, PAC 3

Appendix A. National, State, and Local Trends

PAC 1

6

Process Overview

7

Project Advisory Committee Role

§ Provide feedback on trends and site needs memo, buildable lands inventory, and final EOA document

§ Provide local context§ Assist in facilitating discussion at public

meeting

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Schedule

9

Task 1 Kickoff 30

Conference call with staff 26 Advisory Committee MeetingProject work plan Public Meeting

Staff MeetingsTask 2 Summarize Trends; Identify Site Types 21 Interim Deliverables (ECO sends drafts to staff)Trend and Site Type memorandum Deliverable (DLCD Deadline)PAC meeting 1 (PPT, Materials, notes) 29

Task 3 BLI 15

Develop draft BLI, BLI memorandumPAC meeting 2 (PPT, Materials, notes) 31

Task 4 Identify CED Potential; Conduct Public Meetings 29

Assessment of Comm. Econ Dev Potential Economic Development Policy AnalysisPublic meeting: Lakeview (Materials, notes) 6Public meeting: Paisley (Materials, notes) 7

Task 5 Prepare Draft EOA 30

Draft EOAEconomic Development Policy AnalysisPAC meeting 3 (PPT, Materials, notes) 9

Task 6 Final EOA 15 30

Final EOA

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

PAC Meeting Dates and TopicsMonth Topic(s)

1. November Discuss framework for the Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA)and how one does it, and discuss trends and site needs

2. January Discuss draft results of buildable lands inventory (BLI), discuss draftpolicies

3. March Public meetings/workshops

4. May Review final EOA and policies

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Key Trends

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Mixed Recovery from the RecessionPer Capita Personal Income,Lake County, Oregon, and U.S., 1990 to 2016, Inflation-adjusted 2016 DollarsSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per Capita Personal Income

12

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

Per C

apita

Per

sona

l Inc

ome,

201

7 D

olla

rs

Lake County Oregon U.S.

Difference Percent AAGRNatural Resources and Mining 136 357 221 163% 6.2%Construction 44 78 34 77% 3.6%Manufacturing 261 199 -62 -24% -1.7%Wholesale trade 52 42 -10 -19% -1.3%Retail trade 233 228 -5 -2% -0.1%Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 40 69 29 73% 3.5%Information 54 16 -38 -70% -7.3%Financial Activities 62 43 -19 -31% -2.3%Professional and Business Services 71 67 -4 -6% -0.4%Educational Services 135 68 -67 -50% -4.2%Leisure and Hospitality 230 172 -58 -25% -1.8%Other Services 55 85 30 55% 2.8%Government 939 1,104 165 18% 1.0%Total 2,312 2,528 216 9% 0.6%

Sector 2001 2017 Change 2001 to 2017

Change in Employment: 2001-2017Covered Employment by Industry, Lake County, 2001-2017Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

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Employment in Lake County and its CitiesShare of Covered Employment in Lake County, 2017Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

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Change in Location of Covered Employment in Lake County, 2006-2017Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

-9.5%

-0.2%(Lakeview)

20.0%

-27.1%

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Unincorporated Lake Co. Paisley Lakeview Lake Co.

67%

3%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Perc

ent o

f Cov

ered

Em

ploy

men

t

Lakeview Paisley Unincorp. Lake Co.

IncreaseDecrease

Aging PopulationPopulation Distribution by Age, Lakeview, Paisley, Lake County, and Oregon, 2012-16Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012-2016 5-year estimates.

Population Growth by Age Group, Lake County, 2016 and 2035Source: Portland State University, Oregon Population Forecast Program, 2016

15

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Under 20

20 to 39

40 to 59

60+

Percent of Population

2016

203524%

27%

26%

23%

21%

19%

28%

31%

26%

12%

18%

44%

27%

23%

26%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Under 20

20 to 39

40 to 59

60 Years and Over

Percent of Population

Lakeview Paisley Lake County Oregon

Labor Force ParticipationLabor Force Participation Rate, Lakeview, Paisley, Lake County, and Oregon, 2012-16Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012-2016 5-year estimates.

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57%48% 49%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Lakeview Paisley Lake County Oregon

Perc

ent o

f Pop

ulat

ionn

Lab

or F

orce

Commuting Flows, Lakeview, 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.

Commuting Patterns

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Commuting Flows, Paisley, 2015Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.

Strength of Natural Resource & Agricultural Industries

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§ Average Size of Farms§ Lake County: 1,762 acres

§ Oregon: 460 acres

§ Average market value of products sold per farm (2012$)§ Lake County: $229,615

§ Oregon: $137,805

§ Average net cash income per farm (2012$)§ Lake County: $61,119

§ Oregon: $22,954

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Census of Agriculture 2012.

Employment Forecast: Assumptions

§ Employment base§ Growth rates§ Mix of employment§ Employment in residential areas§ Employment density

Please note: The numbers in the employment forecast are subject to change, with refinement of the EOA

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OED Employment Forecast: South Central East Cascades Region (Lake and Klamath Counties)

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Source: Oregon Employment Department. Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027.

Number Percent AAGR Total private 20,570 22,070 1,500 7% 0.7% Natural resources and mining 1,450 1,650 200 14% 1.3% Mining and logging 120 120 0 0% 0.0% Construction 960 1,150 190 20% 1.8% Manufacturing 2,070 2,090 20 1% 0.1% Durable goods 1,860 1,870 10 1% 0.1% Wood product manufacturing 1,500 1,530 30 2% 0.2% Nondurable goods 220 220 0 0% 0.0% Trade, transportation, and utilities 4,760 5,070 310 7% 0.6% Wholesale trade 830 900 70 8% 0.8% Retail trade 3,090 3,250 160 5% 0.5% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 840 920 80 10% 0.9% Information 170 150 -20 -12% -1.2% Financial activities 920 960 40 4% 0.4% Professional and business services 2,350 2,430 80 3% 0.3% Private educational and health services 4,080 4,530 450 11% 1.1% Health care and social assistance 3,890 4,340 450 12% 1.1% Leisure and hospitality 2,730 2,890 160 6% 0.6% Accommodation and food services 2,530 2,660 130 5% 0.5% Other services and private households 1,080 1,150 70 6% 0.6% Government 6,160 6,260 100 2% 0.2% Federal government 1,160 1,150 -10 -1% -0.1% State government 1,290 1,350 60 5% 0.5% Local government 3,710 3,760 50 1% 0.1% Local education 1,840 1,820 -20 -1% -0.1%Total payroll employment 26,730 28,330 1,600 6% 0.6%

2027Change 2017 - 2027

Industry Sector 2017

Employment is forecast to grow 0.6%

Employment in Lakeview, 2017Covered Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, State of Oregon

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$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Government Industrial sectors Retail Information andOther Services

Leisure Activities Health Care andSocial Assistance

FIRE

Aver

age

Pay

per E

mpl

oyee

Empl

oyee

s

Employees Average Pay / Employee

Average City Wage

Land Use Type Employment % of Total Employment % of TotalIndustrial 423 19% 475 19% 52 Retail Commercial 264 12% 297 12% 33 Office & Commercial Services 627 28% 705 28% 78 Government 922 41% 1,035 41% 113 Total 2,236 100% 2,512 100% 276

2019 2039 Change 2019 to 2039

Employment Forecast: Lakeview

Employment growth forecast,Lakeview UGB,2019-2039

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Employment growth forecast by land use type, Lakeview UGB, 2019-2039

YearTotal

Employment

2019 2,236 2039 2,512

Change 2019 to 2039

Employees 276Percent 12%AAGR 0.58%

Employment in Paisley, 2017Covered Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, State of Oregon

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$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Government Private Employment

Aver

age

Pay

per E

mpl

oyee

Empl

oyee

s

Employees Average Pay / Employee

Average City Wage

Employment Forecast: Paisley

Employment growth forecast, Paisley UGB, 2019-2039

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Employment growth forecast by land use type, Paisley UGB, 2019-2039

YearTotal

Employment

2019 104 2039 116

Change 2019 to 2039

Employees 12Percent 12%AAGR 0.55%

Land Use Type Employment % of Total Employment % of TotalPrivate Employment 28 27% 31 27% 3 Government 76 73% 85 73% 9 Total 104 100% 116 100% 12

2019 2039 Change 2019 to 2039

Target Industries and Site Needs

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Potential Target Industry Discussion

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High Employment Low Employment

High Location Quotient

§ Animal production and aquaculture

§ Wood product manufacturing§ Crop production§ Food and beverage stores

§ Private households§ Membership associations and organizations§ Truck transportation§ Motor vehicle and parts dealers§ Building material and garden supply stores§ Accommodation§ Agriculture and forestry support activities§ Construction of buildings

Low Location Quotient

§ Food services and drinking places

§ Heavy and civil engineering construction§ Publishing industries, except internet§ Telecommunications§ Specialty trade contractors§ Real estate§ Merchant wholesalers, durable goods§ Social assistance§ Food manufacturing§ Professional and technical services§ General merchandise stores§ Ambulatory health care services§ Amusements, gambling, and recreation

Estimate of New Businesses by Land Use Type, Lakeview

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Land Use Type

Employment growth (2019-2039)

Average business

size

Estimate forecast of

growth of new businesses

Industrial 52 7 8 Retail Commercial 33 10 4 Office & Commercial Services 78 3 23

Estimate of New Businesses, Paisley§ Average business size: 4 employees

§ Estimated growth in 2019-2039 period: 3 employees

§ Estimated forecast of growth: 1 new business

SWOT: Lake County

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Strengths• Natural resources• Renewable energy• Access to land

Weaknesses• Lack of infrastructure• Lack access to skilled workforce

Opportunities Threats• Aging population à low labor force

participation rate

SWOT: Lakeview

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Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

SWOT: Paisley

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Strengths• Tourism and use from federal lands• Commercial ranches around city• Geothermal plant• Broad band internet (newer to areas)

Weaknesses• Federal lands all around, private

ranches• Barriers to expansion beyond UGB• Drivers passing through• Decline of timber industry

Opportunities• Mill site in brownfields project –

opportunity for redevelopment?• Industrial land outside of UGB (former

sawmill) – opportunity for growth (UGB exp or other use)

Threats

Next Steps

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§ Stakeholder interviews§ Revisions to trends and site needs analysis§ Buildable lands inventory (BLI)

§ PAC discussion: January 31st

§ Public meeting§ March 6th (Lakeview)§ March 7th (Paisley)

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