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The challenge and opportunity of a low carbon economy
sustainable mobility Serge de Gheldere
@sergedg
futureproofed.com
Must we change?
Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels
0
2250
4500
6750
9000
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
of C
arbo
n
Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC
Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels
0
2250
4500
6750
9000
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
of C
arbo
n
Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC
The energy trapped by man-madeglobal warming pollution is now
“…equivalent to exploding
Hiroshima atomic bombsper day 365 days per year.”
400,000James Hansen
Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record HaveOccurred Since the Year 2001
Data: NASA/GISS
2005 2007 2002 1998
2009 2006 2012 2011 2004
2010
2013
2014
2003
2015
14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record HaveOccurred Since the Year 2001
Data: NASA/GISS
2015
Data: NASA/GISS
TEXT
TEXT
TEXT
TEXT
TEXT
TEXT
© 2010 Julien Goldstein/The New York Times/Redux
“I had 400 acres of wheat, and now it’s all desert.”Ahmed Abdullah, Syrian farmer
October 2010
© 2010 Julien Goldstein/The New York Times/Redux
Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years
World Economic Forum, 2016
1. Water crisis2. Failure of climate change
mitigation and adaptation3. Extreme weather events4. Food crisis5. Profound social instability
Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years
World Economic Forum, 2016
All of this is now, and with ‘only’
0.8 °C
Reduction routes
A
B
2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
ly em
issio
ns
Reduction routes
A
B
2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
ly em
issio
ns
Reduction routes
A
B
Fixed yearly reduction percentage
2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
ly em
issio
ns
Reduction routes
A
B
Fixed yearly reduction percentage
Fixed yearly reduction quantity
2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
ly em
issio
ns
Reduction routes
A
B
Fixed yearly reduction percentage
Fixed yearly reduction quantity
Delayed reduction
2020 2030 2040 2050
Emiss
ions
per
yea
r A
B
“Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions
C
2010 2050 2100
Emiss
ions
per
yea
r A
B
“Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions
Carbon budget
C
2010 2050 2100
Emiss
ions
per
yea
r A
B
“Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions
Carbon budget
Budgettrespass
C
2010 2050 2100
Emiss
ions
per
yea
r A
B
“Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions
Carbon budget
Budgettrespass
C
Net negative emissions
2010 2050 2100
CO2e
em
issio
ns E
U (M
ton/
jaar)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
-40%
-95%
Reduction routes to -95% in 2050
-79%
-58%
Europe
Science
Must we change?
Can we change?
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Global Wind Energy Capacity1980 – Present
Win
d C
apac
ity (M
egaw
atts
)
Data: Earth Policy Institute
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Global Wind Energy Capacity1980 – Present
Win
d C
apac
ity (M
egaw
atts
)
Data: Earth Policy Institute
0 €
50 €
100 €
150 €
200 €
250 €
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Onshore Wind Cost1984 – 2014
Euro
s Pe
r Meg
awat
t Hou
r
Megawatts DeployedData: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0 €
50 €
100 €
150 €
200 €
250 €
0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Onshore Wind Cost1984 – 2014
Euro
s Pe
r Meg
awat
t Hou
r
Megawatts Deployed
1984
1990
2000
2004
2014
Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
$0 B
$30 B
$60 B
$90 B
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E
Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$
US
Bill
ion
Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis
$0 B
$30 B
$60 B
$90 B
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E
Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$
US
Bill
ion
Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis
Small Batteries
Vehicle Batteries
Energy Storage Systems
$500
$1.000
$1.500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$ U
S pe
r kW
h
Data: 2014 Citigroup
Large Lithium Ion Battery Cost Trend
$500
$1.000
$1.500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$ U
S pe
r kW
h
Data: 2014 Citigroup
Large Lithium Ion Battery Cost Trend
917 PJ =
Can we change?
Will we change?
Landbouw & Natuur 4%
Industrie 14%
Transport 24%
Handel & diensten 26%
Huishoudens 32%
HuishoudensHandel & dienstenTransportIndustrieLandbouw & NatuurEnergieproductie
A B
----
----
scope 1 & 2
transport van personen
scope 1 & 2
televisie thuis
scope 1 & 2
niet energie
Fermob colors
materialen & diensten
transport van personen
energieverbruik
vaste activa
vracht
direct afval - water
afval verpakking producten
niet energetisch
Future-proofed
Future
proofed
kg
!
!"#$
The density of the Belgian highway network is far above
European average
14
Density of Highway network, km / 1000 km2
SOURCE: Chiffres-Clés de la Wallonie, IWEPS; Instituts statistiques régionaux, Climact
57
20
35
26
58
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EU
-2
7
15
EU
-1
5
Lu
xe
mb
ou
rg
Average EU-15
UK
15
Th
e N
eth
erla
nd
s
Ge
rm
an
y
Fra
nce
17
De
nm
ark
Belgium
▪ This high density
is an asset
regarding logistic
activities, but
makes it more
difficult to
perform a modal
switch away from
road transport for
passenger and
goods
transportation
NAAR EENKOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
1976
2000
Prognose 2050 (KUL, Poelmans, 2010) In 1976 was 7,2% van de Vlaamse oppervlakte bebouwd. Eind jaren tachtig nam dat toe tot 12% en begin 2000 zaten we al aan 18%. Als de bebouwing tegen het huidige tempo doorgaat, dan zal in 2050 maar liefst 41,5% van Vlaanderen bebouwd zijn (KUL, Poelmans, 2010), …
… een groot deel daarvan alleen met de auto bereikbaar, met de stedelijke leefbaarheid als eerste slachtoffer.
NOx air pollution map Europe
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN
KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN
KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN
KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN
KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
Question
A
B
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
90%
50%
13%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13% Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13% Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Accessory loss 2%
Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Braking resistance 6%
Accessory loss 2%
Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Rolling resistance 4%
Braking resistance 6%
Accessory loss 2%
Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Question
C
How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B?
13%
Aerodynamic drag 3%
Rolling resistance 4%
Braking resistance 6%
Accessory loss 2%
Drivetrain loss 6%
Idling loss 17%
Engine loss 62%
Well to wheel efficiencies
The True Multi-Fuel Car The beauty of powering cars with electricity from the grid is that we can generate the electricity any way we want without changing the cars. As we have seen, we can generate electricity with our choice of fossil fuels. We can also use nuclear fuel, or we can generate it with any of a number of “green” sources, such as hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, solar, or biomass. Electricity is the universal currency of energy, and we already have a comprehensive distribution system for it.
Proponents of hydrogen fuel-cell cars regularly compare the forecasted best efficiency of hydrogen production and conversion – in futuristic plants and fuel cells that have never been built – to the efficiency of the average existing electric generation plant – including all those 25% to 30% efficient power plants that were built in the 1950s. This is not a fair comparison – if we are willing to build all-new hydrogen production plants to power a hydrogen car future, then we should be just as willing to build new electric generators to power an electric car future. We have assumed 60% efficient best-of-breed electric generators, but not science-fiction electric generators.
However, natural gas accounts for only 14.9%20 of U.S. electricity generation; the rest is a mix of coal, nuclear, and others. The average well-to-outlet efficiency of U.S. electric generation, including all the old, inefficient power plants, is about 41%.21 With this efficiency, our electric car has a well-to-wheel energy efficiency of 0.83 km/MJ, still the most efficient car on the road.
Of course, fuel-cell cars are also multi-fuel cars, since hydrogen can be produced from water using electricity from any source. But this is a very inefficient way to use electricity. Consider the following chart:
Hydrogen Production
Battery Electric Car
Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 86%
Fuel-Cell Car
Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 25%
Electricity from Grid
Inverter & Electric Motor
in Car
Li-ion Battery
93% efficient
H2O Electrolysis
70% efficient
H2 Compressor
90% efficient
H2 Fuel Cell
40% efficient
Electricity from Grid
Charger
93% efficient
Inverter & Electric Motor
in Car
It is obvious that when we start with electricity (however it is produced), it is hard to beat the 86% efficiency of the currently available lithium-ion batteries and chargers. Even when we assume extremely high efficiencies for electrolysis, compression, and the fuel cell, the fuel-cell car requires more than three times as much electricity from the grid to drive the same distance.
Copyright © 2006 Tesla Motors Inc. Page 5 of 10
50%
31%
18%
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.beNAAR EEN
KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
w
5 levers for decarbonisingBelgian transport sector
1.Reduce transport kms
2.Increase occupancy level
3.Modal shift
4.Increase efficiency
5.Use renewable energyKlimaat.be
NAAR EENKOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ
Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België
tegen 2050Samenvatting van de bevindingen
We are the people who could be shaping
the next industrial revolution.
• DE MORGENZATERDAG 9 NOVEMBER 20134 • DMKLIMAAT
‘Vuile gammele treinen. Stinkende, troosteloze fileswaarje ziek vanwordt.Willenwedat nu echt?Nog altijd?’MilieupoliticoloogHansBruyninckx (49), sindsvijfmaandenhoofd vanhet EuropeesMilieuAgentschapinKopenhagen, over de oppeppende kracht vanschone lucht, helderwater en kennis overde opwarmendewereldbol.tekst: BarbaraDebusscherefoto’s: Thomas Sweertvaegher
Interview Hans Bruyninckx, hoofd van het Europees Milieu Agentschap
Choose your future
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