Livestock at the Crossroads: new Directions for Policy, Research and Development Cooperation

Livestock, climate change and resource use: present and future

Andy Jarvis, Tim Searchinger, Caitlin Peterson, Phil Thornton, Mario Herrero, Michael Peters

CCAFS Theme Leader

El Problema

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

Arable land per person will decrease

Year• World Population• Arable land

1950• 2,500,000,000• 0.52 ha

20006,1000,000• 0.25 ha

20509,000,000• 0.16 ha

The arable land on the earth is ~3% or 1.5 billion ha

Source: Erb et al. (2007)

• 30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture

- 80% of all agricultural land

• 1/3 arable land used for feed crop production

• 70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture

3 Livestock and GHG

Agriculture-related activities are ~ 24% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010)

Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Gigatonne = 1 x 10 9

Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). 2012. World Resources Institute.

13

Non-Ag Energy

Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock,

energy)

Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands

Industrial processes Waste

70

11

4 2

Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year

Figure 24. Global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production

Sources: WRI analysis based on EPA 2012 and FAO 2012. with adjustments

35

1220

17

10

7

Column1

Ruminant Enteric Fermentation

Manure management

Percent100% = 6.5 Gt CO2e in 2010

Ruminant enteric fermentation

Ruminant wastes on pasturesSoil fertilization

Energy

Rice

Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, Houghton 2008, and OECD 2012.

Figure 25. “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world

Gt CO2e per year

2010 2050 (Business as usual)

2050 (2°C target)

12 15

36

70

Non-agricultural emissions

Agricultural and land-use change emissions

>70%

48

85

21

020406080

100120140160180200

Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs

kg C

O2

eq/k

g an

imal

pro

tein

• 10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5

• Range arises from methodological differences

-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments

-Attribution of land use to livestock

-Omissions, misallocations

2 Livestock and GHG

Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)

Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities

• Highest variation occurs for beef, due to variety of production systems.

• Ruminants require more fossil energy use, emit more CH4 per animal.6

ResultsLatin America

Loss detections

Jan 2004

Oct 2012

Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050:Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to

1.96 billion (medium estimate UN) Region today consumes 9% of world calories but will consume

31% of projected calorie growth to 2050

Current 2050 - Current consumption and % of Imports

2050 - FAO projection & self-sufficient production (2830 kcal)

Cropland needed at current yields for domestic food consumption (hectares)

154 million 357 million 488 million

Cereal yield needed to avoid new land clearing

1.23 t/ha 2.81 t/ha 4.33 t/ha

Mensaje 1:Ganaderia esta en el ojo del

hurrican en el tema de seguridad alimentario del mundo: emisiones,

uso de la tierra, suministro de proteina

Entonces que se hace? Tres consideraciones

• Los numeros no cuadran, entonces cual es la solucion?– Incrementar productividad– Disminuir perdidas en la cadena (y con

consumidor)– Reducir consumo

32%

24% of global food supply by energy content (kcal)

of global food supply by weight

The size of food loss and waste (2009)

Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste – extent, causes and prevention. Rome: UN FAO.

Number may not sum to 100 due to rounding.Source: WRI analysis based on Gustavsson et al. 2011.

Food lost or wasted (kcal per capita per day - 2009)ConsumptionDistribution & marketProcessing

Handling & storageProduction

North America & Oceania

Europe Industrialized Asia North Africa, West & Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America South and Southeast Asia

17

6

9

7

61

52

95

12

23

46

112

23

17

34

184

21

23

5137

37

39

28

17622

28

13154

37

32

1520 kcal/capita/day

748 746

594545

453 414

100% =

Percent

Livestock products: Developing countries are hungry for more.

• Growth in animal product consumption has increased more than any other commodity group.1

• Greatest increases in S and SE Asia, Latin America.

-Overall meat consumption in China has quadrupled since 1980 to 119 lbs/person/yr. 2

• Economic and population growth, rising per capita incomes, urbanization

Photo by: CGIAR

• Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by a factor of five. 1

2 Livestock consumption patterns

Changing consumption of meat in relation to gross national income (GNI) per capita (1961-2007)

Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.” Government Office for Science, London.

3 Livestock consumption patterns

Past and projected consumption of livestock products

Source: FAO (2006a) and FAO (2006b).

• As incomes grow, expenditure on livestock products increases rapidly .3

-GDP growth in E Asia from 1991-2001 was 7% per year, compared to 2.3% in other developing countries and 1.8% in developed countries.

• Consumption is leveling off in developed countries, but more than doubled since 1980 in developing countries (from 31 lbs. to 62 lbs. in 2002).

-Rapid growth led by China, India, & Brazil projected to continue.

Source: WRI analysis of FAO 2012 data.

Table 3. FAO’s projected livestock consumption by region

Livestock (kcal/person/day)

Beef and mutton (kcal/person/day)

Region 2006 2050 % change 2006 2050 % changeCanada & USA 907 887 -2% 117 95 -19%

European Union 864 925 7% 80 75 -6%

Brazil 606 803 33% 151 173 15%

Former Soviet Union 601 768 28% 118 156 32%

China 561 820 46% 41 89 116%

Other OECD 529 674 27% 64 84 31%

Latin America (ex Brazil) 475 628 32% 96 116 21%

Middle East & North Africa 303 416 37% 59 86 45%

Asia (ex. China, India) 233 400 72% 24 43 79%

India 184 357 94% 8 19 138%

Sub-Saharan Africa 144 185 29% 41 51 26%

World 413 506 23% 50 65 30%

*Mollusks independently produce calories and protein without any human-managed inputs. Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass. Sources for terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. 2010 (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius 2000. Sources for finfish and shrimp: WRI author calculations based on USDA 2013, NRC 2011, Tacon and Metian 2008, Wirsenius 2000, and FAO 1989.

Figure 12. Efficiency rates of producing animal-based foods

Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”

N/A*

Series1

1 1

7 78

1011

1213

43

1516

15 15

20

18

25

SheepBeef Shrimp Milk (cattle)

Milk (buffalo)

Pork Poultry Finfish Egg Mollusks

Calories

Protein

Figure 13. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein

Kg CO2e / kg protein

Note: Data mostly from developed world, and excludes emissions from land use change Source: DeVries (2009)

Beef Pork Eggs Milk Poultry

175

80

40

45

30

45

20

45

70

25

Which system is more sustainable?

Comparative Emissions from Dairy CowsGerber et al., FAO (2010)

Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases per kilogram of milk

U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram of milk

Accessible improvements – cut emissions per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3. High protein shrub Improved pasture Increased stover digestibility

Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS

Developing country productions systems that are eco-efficient

Source: ILRISmith P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363:789-813 (2008)

B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios

Government policies increasing agricultural land-area especially in perennials

…and increasing livestock production, but on less land

It’s all about the livestock…..either improve it’s efficiency, or get out of it!

Carbon capture (CO2eq) for agricultural sector (fruits, livestock and rice) in Colombia

The hoofprint means there is plenty to do!

• Ganaderia si es gran parte del problema, y tiende a empeorar• Solucion viene igual dentro del sector• Ganaderia sostenible tiene que ser holistico en su vision:

• Zero deforestacion• Baja emisiones• Alta productivdad• Generacion de servicios ecosistemicos• Consumo responsible• Bajas perdidas post cosecha

• Sabemos mucho, tenemos ejemplos espectaculares• Como logramos impactos escalados a nivel global/nacional• Politicas/tecnologias/programas/investigacion alineado

a.jarvis@cgiar.org

1 The state of food and agriculture: Livestock in the balance. Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009, 9.

2 FAOSTAT 2010, cited in: Skillful means: The challenges of China’s encounter with factory farming. New York: Brighter Green, 2011, 1.

3 Steinfeld et al. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

4 Goodland, R., and Anhang, J. 2009. Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate change were pigs, chickens and cows? WorldWatch November/December 2009, p10-19, WorldWatch Institute, Washington DC

5 Herrero, M. et al. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167: 779-782.

6 de Vries, M., and de Boer, I.J.M., 2009. Comparing environmental impacts for livestock products: A review of life cycle assessments. Livestock Science 128(1): 1-11.

7 Thornton, P. 2010. Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Biology 365: 2853-2867.

8 Working group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Africa, 10.2.2.4. Livestock. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.

9 Climate, livestock and poverty: Challenges at the interface. Nairobi: International Livestock Research Institute, 2009.

Ruminant Meat Consumes Majority of World’s Animal Feed But Provides 1/8 of Animal Product Calories

Note: Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and other edible crops”. Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst. (2010).

Soybean, starchy roots, & other edible crops

Cropland pasture

Food industry by-products & food waste

Non-agricultural herbage & browse

Cereal grains

Forage crops (hay & silage)

Crop residues

Permanent pasture & browse

Column1

Percent: 100% = 6705 million tons of dry matter per year (2010)

Ruminant meat

Ruminant dairy

Non-ruminants