Low emission development strategies in Peru, Colombia and Panama

ASB Symposium 2 October 2013Global Steering Group Meeting

Washington, DC 2-4 October, 2013Glenn Hyman

Introduction• Planning for low emissions development• What tools and approaches can be

brought to the task?• ASB Has been working on methods for

analyzing low emissions development strategies

• 3 Latin American examples – in Peru, Colombia and Panama

RS/GIS

Peru

Ucayali Region, Peru

Figura 1. Participantes en el taller “Estrategias para reducir emisiones: Análisis de escenarios de planificación” 22-26 marzo 2013 en Pucallpa, Perú.

1. Gather and organize information2. Analyze land use and carbon stock changes3. Develop emissions baseline4. Analyze scenarios5. Understand tradeoffs6. Create action plan

6 steps Workshop1. Day 1, scenarios w/ officials2. Days 2, 3, 4 – analyze 3. Day 5 – review results and

make refinements

Analysis by planning unit

Analytical Results from ABACUS

Implications for oil palm development

http://www.terra-i.org/terra-i.html

Key Insights - Ucayali Region Peru

• whether oil Palm replaces intact forests or pastures will have a substantial impact on emissions

• There is significant potential to recuperate degraded pastures, restocking carbon in the landscape.

• The new road planned between Pucallpa and Cruzeiro would have multiplier effects for both carbon stocks and livelihoods.

Colombia

Colombian High Plains• ~ 1 million hectares• Natural vegetation is savanna and gallery forest• Focus of increasing agricultural development• Agricultural systems: • Pastures and improved pastures• Maize, soybean, rice, sugar cane• Rubber and Oil palm agroforestry

• Collaboration between the national agricultural research institute (CORPOICA) and ASB partners (CIAT and ICRAF)

Profitability of land uses in the Llanos, Colombia

Source: CORPOICA and CIAT

Conversion to silvo-pastoral systems Llanos, Colombia

Key Insights – High Plains Colombia

• There is a potential win-win situation by converting degraded pastures and native savannas to silvopastoral systems.

• Farmers would need support to cover the initial cost of conversion.

• More study of biodiversity implications are needed. Areas that are suitable for gallery forests could be reestablished.

Panama

The 5 UN-REDD regions of Panama

Land Use

Opportunistic carbon stock evaluation

Opportunity cost analysis

Identifying land use transitions and their effects on carbon stocks in Panama

Scenarios developed by group of experts are assessed applying land use change rates in ABACUS: in this case

reducing primary forests clearing

Graphing ABACUS Results

Mapping land use transitions in Panama

Key Insights – Panama

• Reducing deforestation and degradation has the highest potential for reducing emissions.

• Actions in indigenous reserves will have a large impact on overall emissions in Panama.

• There is high potential to restock carbon in agricultural lands, although the direct contribution to net emissions is modest.

Our experience so far….

• Methods and tools have allowed us to test hypotheses, notions, ideas in case studies

• Our partners at the technical/analytical level are enthusiastically adopting methods

• Need to better incorporate other ecosystem services

• More work needed to reach policy makers

Thank you