Low Frequency Modulation of
Annual and Sub-annual Cycle
Precipitation and Temperature in the
Western United States
Balaji Rajagopalan and Subhrendu Gangopadhyay
Objective
How does the low frequency components of the climate
system (e.g., ENSO, PDO, etc.) modulate high
frequency components of the climate system, namely,
regional annual and sub-annual cycles of precipitation
and temperature.
Study Area : Western United States
Study Area and Data
• 11 states (AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM , OR, UT, WA, WY)
• total, 84 climate divisions
• 106 years (1895-2000) of monthly precipitation and
temperature data for each climate division
NM
CA
NV
ID
MT
WY
UT
AZ
CO
OR
WA
Methodology
• Uses the technique MTM-SVD (multi-taper method using singular-
value decomposition).
• Identify significant frequencies from the MTM spectrum.
• Do space-time reconstruction at these significant frequencies.
• Use the space-time reconstructions to analyze temporal evolution
of these significant frequencies, and phase shifts.
• Finally, use spectral-coherence to relate low frequency components
with precipitation and temperature at the annual and sub-annual
frequencies.
MTM Spectrum – Joint Precip. and Temp.
• Low Frequency
-0.0 to 0.5 cycles/yr
• High Frequency
-0.5 to 6.0 cycles/yr
MTM Spectrum – Only Precipitation
Significant frequencies (cy/yr) at 95% confidence level
• 0.0674
• 0.1875 (~ 5 yr cycle)• 0.3721 (~ 3 yr cycle)• 1.0000 (annual cycle)• 2.0000 (sub-annual cycle)• other harmonics
Temporal Evolution of Frequencies – Joint P-T
Moving Window MTM-SVD at 90%
Observations:-
- ENSO and decadal
oscillations are patchy
- enhanced ENSO post
1980
- annual and sub-annual
cycles significant all
throughout
Spatial Reconstruction at Significant Frequencies – LOW Frequencies, P and T
Spatial Reconstruction at Significant Frequencies – HIGH Frequencies, P and T
Spatial Reconstruction of ANNUAL Cycle
Using a 20-year Moving Window – Precipitation
Spatial Reconstruction of ANNUAL Cycle
Using a 20-year Moving Window – Temperature
Phase Shift of ANNUAL Cycle P and T
1950-1975; 1975-2000
Phase Shift of SUB-ANNUAL Cycle P and T
1950-1975; 1975-2000
Diagnosis of Space-time Reconstructions and
Phase Shifts
• For precipitation, Pacific Northwest and Arizona are out of phase
( we know that these two regions have the opposing ENSO signal
for winter precipitation), the shifts are of the order of +/- 50 days
(positive is early and negative is late).
• With temperature, all the shifts in temperature are positive and in
the mid-latitudes this implies for example an early Spring. Such
shift in temperature for example in the Pacific Northwest we can
expect that winter precipitation comes more as rain-on-snow type
events.
Diagnosis of Space-time Reconstructions andPhase Shifts
• Also in case of precipitation, there are very little shifts in the rest
of the study region.
• Wherever the annual cycle is weak, primarily in the desert regions
(in particular, California-Nevada border, southern Utah, western
Montana) there seems to be a shift in the annual cycle close to 100
days. This apparently is a very large shift but to some extent makes
sense because these are desert regions; a little precipitation goes a
long way to show significant shifts.
Diagnosis of Space-time Reconstructions andPhase Shifts
• With the 6-month cycle, we observe that for precipitation,
the shifts are nearly halved and for temperature the shifts
are nearly double that of the annual cycle.
Spectral Coherence
Spectral coherence between January through April SST (sea surface temperature) first principal components (refereed in the figures as PC1B1; PC1B2 and PC1B3 are the extra-tropic SST PCs) and spatially averaged MTM projections time-reconstructed for both the annual and sub-annual cycles
Next plots :-
Spectral Coherence – Annual Cycle
Spectral Coherence – Annual + Sub-annual
Low Frequency Modulation of
Annual and Sub-annual Cycle
Precipitation and Temperature in the
Western United States
Balaji Rajagopalan and Subhrendu Gangopadhyay