METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 5,546 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on October 14-15, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell

phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a

margin of error of +/- 1.46 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

ATTRIBUTION

Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR

ATLANTIC+/- 4.73%, 19 times out of 20

QUÉBEC+/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20

ONTARIO+/- 3.03%, 19 times out of 20

MANITOBA+/- 3.61%, 19 times out of 20

SASKATCHEWAN+/- 3.66%, 19 times out of 20

ALBERTA+/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20

BRITISH COLUMBIA+/- 3.44%, 19 times out of 20

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When this election campaign began, Justin Trudeau was languishing in third, looking lost and out of his depth. The bloom was off the rose. It appeared as if a year of Conservative ads, painting the Liberal leader as “just not ready,” were indeed correct. Meanwhile, Tom Mulcair and the NDP were enjoying a surge of support, with close to 70% of the electorate having an appetite for a change in government. Our polling showed that while support for the NDP was not particularly strong, they had an opportunity to solidify and expand it.

As I watched the first debate, and the others after it, it occurred to me that as a child of the 1970s and a boxing fan, Justin Trudeau surely was playing rope-a-dope. This strategy—looking weak and letting your opponents punch themselves out, while absorbing body blows and protecting the head—worked as it did in 1974. The Justin Trudeau of August 6th onward was a whole different man; much more confident and poised. As he entered the final rounds of this fight, his true strength was revealed. It turns out he was ready all along.

Our numbers throughout the campaign showed three factors that ultimately decided the outcome. Firstly, 70% of voters wanted a change in government in Ottawa. Secondly and thirdly, only 30-45% of Liberal supporters indicated they could change their minds before election day, while over 50% of NDP supporters said they could change theirs.

The deadlock in the national numbers throughout August and September kept those supporters in their camps. The deadlock broke in early October with the rise of the Niqab debate in Quebec. As the NDP dropped, national trends revealed a growing gap between the Liberals and the NDP. This triggered a mass migration of votes from the NDP to the Liberals, as it became clear to the 70% who wanted change that the Liberals had the better chance of defeating the Conservatives.

The NDP strategy to outflank the Liberals on the centre right might have worked—outside of that national context. Positioning Tom Mulcair close to Stephen Harper on myriad economic issues, like balanced budgets and the F-35 procurement, was a fatal blow to the NDP. This amounted to unsuccessfully selling the same as “change.” This move to the right also alienated the NDP base across Canada, where we found many provincial NDP voters not supporting Tom Mulcair’s federal party.

We saw a similar story last year, in Ontario. It doesn’t appear the federal NDP learned any lessons from Andrea Horwath’s defeat.

Stephen Harper called the longest election in modern history hoping that he could massively outspend his opponents, that Trudeau would trip up, or maybe something else. Whatever the plan was, it hasn’t worked out.

Though the Conservatives are positioned to make gains in Quebec, they face massive losses in Ontario. New riding boundaries in Saskatchewan will cost them seats, as will newfound Liberal support in British Columbia and Manitoba.

On Monday night, the long campaign closes, and it’ll be a rollercoaster ride right to the end. Would we want it any other way?

- QM

A VERY LONG ELECTION.

LIBERALS LEAD TORIES IN HOME STRETCH

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October 17, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – With less than 72 hours remaining before the polls open on election day, Justin’s Trudeau’s Liberal Party is firmly in the lead, sitting five points above Stephen Harper’s Conservatives with Tom Mulcair’s NDP far behind. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.46%, 19 times of out 20.

The Conservatives continue to enjoy the most dedicated supporters—fully 89% of Conservative supporters describe their support as “strong,” while just 9% of saying they might change their minds. The Liberals now have the “strong” support of 77% of their voters, compared to just 15% who might switch. The NDP has similar but weaker numbers, with 72% “strong” support and 23% potentially changing their minds.

“The Liberals have continued to surge in this final week of the campaign and now hold a four percent leader over the Conservatives among all voters, and five percent among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research. “With 37.8% support, the Liberals may now be on the cusp of a majority. The Conservatives, with 32.6% support will surely be in opposition and the NDP at 20.8% will return to third place in the House of Commons, with a reduced but still substantial caucus.”

The Liberals have a dominant lead in Atlantic Canada; only in New Brunswick is the race remotely close, though the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. “We are not expecting many non-Liberal MPs to make it out of Atlantic Canada. We expect most, if not all, of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland & Labrador and Prince Edward Island to return Liberal MPs to Ottawa,” continued Maggi.

Liberals now lead in Quebec, 32% to 25% for the NDP, with the Conservatives and Bloc at 22% and 17% respectively. “This will likely mean significant gains for the Liberals, as well as pick-ups for the Conservatives and the Bloc, both of whom were all but wiped in 2011. The most interesting races to watch on election night, and likely those that will determine the minority/majority government, are in Quebec outside of Montreal and Quebec City. In the rest of Quebec, it is a four-way tie between the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and the Bloc.”

“In Ontario, the Liberals have opened an eleven point lead over the Conservatives, 44% to 33%, with the NDP at just 19%. They lead in every region of Ontario, with the exception of South Central Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, where the parties are neck and neck. This shift in Ontario, compared to previous regional polls, is most pronounced in Southwestern and Eastern Ontario, where Conservatives once enjoyed very significant leads.”

“Manitoba will be very interesting to watch, as the Liberals are just one point back of the Conservatives, 37% to 36% and lead substantially in Winnipeg—but their strength outside the city may translate into additional pickups,” Maggi added.

“Saskatchewan is continuing to buck national trends, with the Conservatives (44.8%) leading over the NDP (29.5%), and the Liberals (20.1%) in third. New riding boundaries should spell trouble for the Conservatives on election night. This is one bright spot for the NDP, which should see gains in the province.”

“Alberta is another province where many interesting races are developing. The Liberals are now at a substantial 26% across the province, running second in Calgary with a three-way tie in Edmonton. Look for Liberals to make small significant gain in Alberta and for some very close races in Edmonton.”

“In British Columbia, where the NDP led substantially for the vast majority of the campaign, the Liberals have now surged ahead, with 33% to 32% for the Conservatives and 24% for the NDP. The Liberals are now ahead substantially in Greater Vancouver, the NDP continue to lead on the Island and the Conservatives lead in the rest of BC. BC will have the second most three-way races (after Quebec), expect lots of late night drama as these results come in.”

“When you look at those who’ve indicated they’ve already voted, however, we see a different picture. Among those who voted early, 34.2% said they voted for the Conservatives, 33.7% for the Liberals, 19.5% for the NDP, 4.5% for the Green Party and 2.4% for the Bloc, while 5.7% of those who voted early didn’t say. This is a pretty clear indication of the resilient Conservative vote, which could produce some surprises. With dozens of close four-way races in Quebec and three-way races in BC, the next government could largely be determined by the success of each party’s ground game,” concluded Maggi.

ABOUT MAINSTREET RESEARCHMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last October’s Toronto mayoral election.

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Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.caFor more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A5

A6

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC32%24%33%

x11%

AB57%13%26%

x4%

SK45%29%21%

x5%

MB37%19%36%

x8%

QC22%25%32%17%4%

ON33%19%44%

x4%

Atlantic19%21%56%

x3%

CPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

33%21%38%4%5%

-3%+1%+3%

--

LEANING & DECIDED

33%

21%

38%

4% 5%

A7

The Question Was:“If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?”

Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

BC30%22%31%

x9%9%812

AB53%12%24%

x3%9%803

SK39%25%18%

x3%16%715

MB33%17%33%

x6%10%735

QC20%23%29%16%3%10%1007

ON30%17%40%

x4%9%

1044

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3428%22%32%3%6%9%605

35-4931%18%35%3%4%10%1319

50-6429%18%35%4%3%11%

1724

65+32%15%35%4%3%11%

1898

Female28%19%33%4%4%12%

2993

Male31%18%34%3%5%9%

2553

Atlantic16%17%48%

x3%16%430

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)BLOC QUÉBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)

30%19%34%4%4%10%

-3%+1%+3%+1%-1%-

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

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FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

30%

19%

34%

4% 4% 10%

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REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS - INCLUDING UNDECIDED

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

A10

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS - INCLUDING UNDECIDED

Ontario Québec Atlantic

UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

A11

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC32%24%33%

x10%

AB58%13%26%

x3%

SK46%29%21%

x4%

MB37%19%37%

x7%

QC22%25%32%17%3%

ON33%19%44%

x4%

Atlantic19%20%57%

x4%

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

33%21%38%4%5%

-4%+1%+3%

--

DECIDED VOTERS ONLY (NOT INCLUDING LEANING)

33%

21%

38%

4% 5%

CPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

9%

10%

16%

1%

4%

61%

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

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UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

CONSERVATIVESTRONG 89%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 9%DON’T KNOW 2%

NDPSTRONG 72%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 23%DON’T KNOW 5%

LIBERALSTRONG 77%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 15%DON’T KNOW 7%

89%

9%2%

72%

23%

5%

77%

15%

7%

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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil change you mind before the next election?

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DON’T KNOW ONLY)

A14

12%

33%

25%

4% 8% 18%

UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DON’T KNOW ONLY)

A15

CONSERVATIVES

NDPLIBERAL

BQGREEN

UNDECIDED

23%34%3%8%32%

NDP SUPPORTERS

CONSERVATIVELIBERAL

BQGREEN

UNDECIDED

11%53%8%10%18%

LIBERALS

NDPBQ

GREENUNDECIDED

CONSERVATIVE 16%60%2%8%14%

And who would be your second choice? (MIGHT SWITCH/DON’T KNOW ONLY)

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BLOQUISTES

CONSERVATIVENDP

LIBERALGREEN

UNDECIDED

16%60%2%8%14%

GREENS

CONSERVATIVENDP

LIBERALBQ

UNDECIDED

24%21%42%2%11%

A17

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Voted in the Advance Poll or by Special BallotAbsolutely certain to vote

Likely to vote Might vote

Unlikely to vote

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe

Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]

Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe

Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]

Strong supporter Might change your mind

Don’t know

And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Don’t Know Only]

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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator

public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of October’s Toronto mayoral election.