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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,062 Toronto Residents by Smart IVR™ on April 3rd, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.16%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Downtown (DT): +/-4.16%; Etobioke (Etob): +/-4.39%; Scarborough (Scar): +/-4.37%; North York (NY): +/-4.37%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
METHODOLOGY
TORONTO’S DEMOCRACY
59% BACK RANKED BALLOT - EVEN IF COUNCIL DOESN’T
April 6, (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find strong support for voting reforms - with support from ranked ballots, internet voting and shorter campaign periods up from April of 2015. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.16%, 19 times out of 20.
"Torontonians are now saying Internet voting is more secure and a large majority would support shorter campaign periods," said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, noting Mainstreet had previously benched marked numbers a year prior. “With council potentially re-visiting these topics again we thought we would as well.”
Security of Internet Voting: 54% (+4%)Approval of Internet Voting 59% (+4%)Size of City Council: Just Right 43% (+2%), Too Many Councillors 48% (no change)Approval for shorter campaign period: 71% (+4%)Approval for Voting Rights for Permanent Residents: 55% (-3%)
“Almost half of Torontonians would prefer for there to be less city councillors, only 11% say there are too few councillors though it is likely the ward boundaries review process will create additional wards,” continued Maggi.
“Most Torontonians would support ranked balloting even if City Council doesn’t. In the past Council has supported the initiative, now it may be getting cold feet. The ward boundary review process has the potential to displace Councillors from their pre-existing constituencies. Adding in ranked ballots may make some councillors very nervous about their chances for re-election. Nevertheless, ranked balloting has strong support from Torontonians,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
A2
A3
Thinking about the next municipal election in the City of Toronto, if Internet voting were introduced, how secure do you think internet voting would be?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Present April 2015
54%
31%
15%
50%
29%
21%
Secure Unsecure Not Sure
A4
Thinking about the next municipal election in the City of Toronto, if Internet voting were introduced, how secure do you think internet voting would be?
Toronto
22%
32%
17%
14%
15%
2,062
Etob.
21%
31%
16%
16%
15%
499
Scar.
22%
30%
18%
15%
16%
504
DT
24%
33%
16%
13%
14%
556
NY
20%
33%
18%
13%
16%
503
Very Secure
Somewhat Secure
Somewhat Unsecure
Very Unsecure
Not Sure
Sample
Very Secure
Somewhat Secure
Somewhat Unsecure
Very Unsecure
Not Sure
Sample
18-34
25%
30%
17%
13%
15%
267
35-49
24%
29%
18%
15%
14%
364
50-64
22%
28%
20%
16%
14%
695
65+
15%
43%
12%
11%
18%
736
Male
22%
29%
18%
15%
17%
974
Female
22%
35%
16%
13%
14%
1,088
A5
And do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Present April 2015
59%
33%
8% 55%
37%
7%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
A6
Do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?
Toronto
38%
21%
16%
17%
8%
Etob.
36%
20%
17%
18%
9%
Scar.
39%
20%
17%
16%
9%
DT
39%
22%
16%
16%
8%
NY
37%
22%
16%
18%
6%
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
41%
22%
15%
16%
7%
35-49
41%
22%
13%
17%
7%
50-64
36%
20%
17%
19%
9%
65+
32%
20%
21%
17%
10%
Male
37%
22%
15%
18%
9%
Female
39%
20%
18%
16%
7%
A7
Size of City Council
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Present April 2015
48%
43%
9% 48%
41%
10%
Too Many Not Enough Just Right
A8
Size of City Council
Toronto
48%
9%
43%
Etob.
49%
10%
41%
Scar.
45%
7%
48%
DT
46%
10%
43%
NY
52%
8%
40%
Too Many
Not Enough
Just Right
Too Many
Not Enough
Just Right
18-34
42%
9%
49%
35-49
45%
10%
45%
50-64
54%
7%
40%
65+
52%
11%
37%
Male
49%
9%
42%
Female
47%
9%
44%
48%
43
9%
Size of Council
A9
Ranked Ballot Voting
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Present April 2015
59%
29%
12%
56%
34%
11%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
A10
Ranked Ballot Voting
Toronto
36%
23%
15%
14%
12%
Etob.
35%
24%
13%
15%
13%
Scar.
38%
19%
15%
14%
15%
DT
35%
23%
15%
14%
12%
NY
36%
26%
16%
13%
9%
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
45%
13%
17%
12%
13%
35-49
36%
22%
15%
14%
13%
50-64
35%
22%
13%
15%
15%
65+
24%
39%
15%
16%
6%
Male
35%
23%
15%
15%
12%
Female
37%
23%
15%
13%
12%
A11
Shorter Campaign Period
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Present April 2015
71%
21%
8% 67%
29%
5%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
A12
Shorter Campaign Period
Toronto
44%
27%
7%
14%
8%
Etob.
45%
24%
9%
15%
6%
Scar.
46%
27%
7%
13%
8%
DT
43%
28%
6%
14%
9%
NY
42%
28%
6%
13%
10%
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
43%
29%
7%
13%
9%
35-49
44%
30%
7%
12%
7%
50-64
46%
27%
6%
13%
8%
65+
43%
20%
8%
19%
11%
Male
44%
28%
7%
15%
7%
Female
44%
26%
7%
13%
10%
A13
Voting Rights for Permanent Residents
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Present April 2015
55%
36%
9% 58%
36%
7%
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
A14
Voting Rights for Permanent Residents
Toronto
34%
21%
13%
23%
9%
Etob.
26%
26%
15%
24%
8%
Scar.
35%
20%
13%
22%
11%
DT
37%
20%
12%
22%
8%
NY
34%
20%
12%
23%
11%
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
18-34
35%
20%
13%
22%
10%
35-49
37%
20%
12%
22%
9%
50-64
35%
20%
12%
23%
10%
65+
29%
25%
14%
24%
9%
Male
33%
21%
14%
23%
8%
Female
35%
21%
12%
22%
11%
A15
SCRIPT
The Ontario government has proposed a shorter campaign period for municipal elections as a potential reform. Some critics have suggested shorter campaign periods benefit incumbent councilors and make it difficult for challengers to succeed. Do you approve or disapprove of a shorter campaign period for
municipal elections?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
In City of Toronto elections, only citizens can vote. Some have some suggested giving permanent residents the right to vote in municipal elections since they pay property taxes and it would foster a
greater sense of community. Others are firmly opposed and believe only Canadian Citizens should vote in elections. Do you approve or disapprove of extending voting rights in municipal elections to
permanent residents?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
Thinking about the next municipal election in the City of Toronto, if Internet voting were introduced, how secure do you think internet voting would be?
Very SecureSomewhat Secure
Somewhat UnsecureVery Unsecure
Not Sure
And do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
Currently, there are 44 members of the Toronto City Council and there is a review underway to decide upon ward boundaries. This could see the total number of City Councillors for the City change. Keeping this in mind, do you think there are too many councilors, not enough councilors, or the right amount of
councilors for Toronto?
Too ManyNot EnoughJust Right
Ranked- ballot voting, also known as preferential voting, is a voting system in which you select your first choice on the ballot, then your second choice and so on. Candidates with the least amount of votes are eliminated and their votes are reassigned until a candidate has over 50%. Do you approve or disapprove
of ranked-ballot voting?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
A16
SCRIPT
The Ontario government has proposed a shorter campaign period for municipal elections as a potential reform. Some critics have suggested shorter campaign periods benefit incumbent councilors and make it difficult for challengers to succeed. Do you approve or disapprove of a shorter campaign period for
municipal elections?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
In City of Toronto elections, only citizens can vote. Some have some suggested giving permanent residents the right to vote in municipal elections since they pay property taxes and it would foster a
greater sense of community. Others are firmly opposed and believe only Canadian Citizens should vote in elections. Do you approve or disapprove of extending voting rights in municipal elections to
permanent residents?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
Thinking about the next municipal election in the City of Toronto, if Internet voting were introduced, how secure do you think internet voting would be?
Very SecureSomewhat Secure
Somewhat UnsecureVery Unsecure
Not Sure
And do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
Currently, there are 44 members of the Toronto City Council and there is a review underway to decide upon ward boundaries. This could see the total number of City Councillors for the City change. Keeping this in mind, do you think there are too many councilors, not enough councilors, or the right amount of
councilors for Toronto?
Too ManyNot EnoughJust Right
Ranked- ballot voting, also known as preferential voting, is a voting system in which you select your first choice on the ballot, then your second choice and so on. Candidates with the least amount of votes are eliminated and their votes are reassigned until a candidate has over 50%. Do you approve or disapprove
of ranked-ballot voting?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve
Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
Not Sure
ONLY WE CALLED
THE LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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