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MarketBOB's
Oscar
Predictions
© 2011 by Sportscar Projects Ltd
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MarketBOB’s Oscar Picks for 2011
February 17, 2011
The annual Oscar awards show is a terrible
bore, but everybody watches it to see the
stars embarrass themselves and truly give
the performance of their lives as “good
sport” losers. Yes, one star wins and acts
modestly appreciative to all the others who
“helped” them achieve this ultimate treasure
for their ego-driven career. But even theyare “acting” humble. So, why watch? To
pick the winners, of course!
The Oscars are a competition of sorts, a vote
by industry peers on the quality of work
displayed on movie screens each week (if
you’re lucky). Most of the time, the awardsgo to movies few have seen or even care to
see. The Academy voters reward artistic
efforts over box office hits. Art isn’t what
Hollywood is about, although the movie studios strive to
win because winners sells more tickets and allows them to
hire more creative talent who aspire to win Oscars. In an
incestuous business of mutual back-scratching, the annual
Academy Awards show is the social zenith of the moviebusiness.
MarketBOB concentrates on box office hits and their
emotional impact on audiences so the Oscar best picture
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list rarely includes movies I review on a weekly basis.
However, despite Hollywood’s best efforts, a few rogue
blockbusters receive nominations and this year is no
different: The Social Network, Inception, Toy Story 3 and True Grit made both lists. For my money, this makes
them winners. However, you can’t enjoy the spectacle of
the Oscar show if you restrict yourself to the big movies
you really liked on opening weekend. No, you have to dig
around the multiplex and watch the anomalies, the “black
swans” of Hollywood that didn’t sell tickets but impressed
the hell out of Academy voters.
The movie with the most nominations (12) is a dull little
story about a pompous ass with a speech impediment who
has to, after a build-up of decades, make the bloody speech
of his life as Britain enters the bloody war against Hitler.
No special effects, no 3D imagery but just a few actors in a
few rooms, talking. And they are the same sex, no less.
So, you wouldn’t walk across the street to see it but when
it wins a ton of awards, you’ll be dying to s-s-see it. The
King’ s Speech is the top contender for the top awards.
Now the second most-nominated movie (10) is True Grit,
a remake of a John Wayne movie produced and directed
by the quirky Coen Brothers, who essentially work outside
of the Hollywood system and have the ability to make
whatever damn movie they want. They keep costs down,attract top actors and stay true to their inner vision of story
and visual themes. They didn’t make #1 at the box office
until the third week of release, which is a remarkable
accomplishment to the power of word of mouth and the
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inability of the industry to release a steady stream of new
movies with audience appeal.
The next two big box office champs on the Best Picture
Oscar list are very different. Tied with 8 nominations, TheSocial Network and Inception attracted large crowds who
like to dream about making a billion dollars. That is pretty
much everyone in America. Inception is a visually
stunning, imaginative virtual reality time-shifting rabbit
hole of a movie that challenged audiences to pay attention
or get lost in the many layers of dreamscape fantasies
depicted in the plot. Like Avatar last year, expect thismovie to take the technical categories but be ignored for
the big awards. Hell, the director Christopher Nolan didn’t
even get nominated. The Social Network is a “true”
adaptation of Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of
Facebook and the mega-success story of his life. It is an
alternate reality story too, but real. This movie was also
the front-runner for best picture until the pre-Oscar awards
picked The King’ s Speech instead and now the
momentum for this film is all on the writing (a brilliant
script full of those wordy speeches and structure Academy
members love) and directing (David Fincher) who made a
story about a few nerds hunched over computers
compelling.
True Grit is a classic American tale, with American actorsand all that, so the patriotic vote is going Gritty. It is also
a great movie, in a cynical lone western sort of way, much
like the anti-government sentiment building across the
country. It may be the movie most in sync with the times
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and the Academy voters may reward it for having great
timing as well as great craft.
Toy Story 3 is the last box office hit in the Best Picture
race, but it is a cartoon. There is another category for it,Best Animated Picture so expect it to contend in that
arena.
So, who is going to win?
If you’re in an Oscar pool and have to get the mostright guesses, good luck to you and play the odds based on
the previous awards and your own personal handicap
system. My rule of thumb is to choose the favorite movie
and realize one film usually strings together a series of
wins, building momentum like a sports team marching
down the field. My money is on The King’ s Speech to
take the most high-quality Oscar gold home, followed byThe Social Network and True Grit, with Inception
picking up the tech statues.
Here are the nominees and my picks. I will be
watching and scoring myself, so I won’t care so much
about how lame the actual show is from an entertainment
point of view. I hope you do the same and get more picks
right than wrong. Good luck!
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BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight)
"The Fighter"(Paramount)
"Inception"(Warner Bros.)"The Kids Are All Right"(Focus Features)
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company)
"127 Hours"(Fox Searchlight)
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing)
"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney)
"True Grit"(Paramount)
"Winter’s Bone"(Roadside Attractions)
And the winner is: The King’s S peech
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter"(Paramount), David O. Russell
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Tom
Hooper
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), DavidFincher
"True Grit"(Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
And the winner is: The Social Network, David
Fincher
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING
ROLEJavier Bardem in "Biutiful" (Roadside Attractions)
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit" (Paramount)
Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network" (Sony Pictures
Releasing)
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Colin Firth in "The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein
Company)
James Franco in "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight)
And the winner is: Colin Firth, The King’s S peech
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A
SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale in "The Fighter" (Paramount)
John Hawkes in "Winter’s Bone" (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner in "The Town" (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right" (FocusFeatures)
Geoffrey Rush in "The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein
Company)
And the winner is: Christian Bale, The Fighter
(Geoffrey Rush has already won an Oscar)
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADINGROLE
Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right" (Focus
Features)
Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole" (Lionsgate)
Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter’s Bone" (Roadside
Attractions)
Natalie Portman in "Black Swan" (Fox Searchlight)
Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine" (The WeinsteinCompany)
And the winner is: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
(she’ s won every other award so far)
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PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A
SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams in "The Fighter" (Paramount)
Helena Bonham Carter in "The King’s Speech" (TheWeinstein Company)
Melissa Leo in "The Fighter" (Paramount)
Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"(Paramount)
Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom" (Sony Pictures
Classics)
And the winner is: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
(again, she’ s won all the other awards but she’ s overexposed now so maybe Helena Bonham Carter may
sneak in.)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
"How to Train Your Dragon"(Paramount), Chris
Sanders and Dean DeBlois
"The Illusionist"(Sony Pictures Classics), SylvainChomet
"Toy Story 3" (Walt Disney), Lee Unkrich
And the winner is: Toy Story 3 (It is just a bit more
character-driven than Dragon and Academy voters like
stories with heart)
ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION"Alice in Wonderland"(Walt Disney), Production
Design: Robert Stromberg, Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"(Warner
Bros.), Production Design: Stuart Craig, Set Decoration:
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Stephenie McMillan
"Inception" (Warner Bros.), Production Design: Guy
Hendrix Dyas, Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug
Mowat"The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein Company),
Production Design: Eve Stewart, Set Decoration: Judy Farr
"True Grit" (Paramount), Production Design: Jess
Gonchor, Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
And the winner is: Inception
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Matthew Libatique
"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Danny
Cohen
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Jeff
Cronenweth
"True Grit"(Paramount), Roger Deakins
And the winner is: True Grit (should win, because
the western never looked better and I love westerns)
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
"Alice in Wonderland" (Walt Disney), Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love" (Magnolia Pictures), Antonella Cannarozzi"The King’s Speech" (The Weinstein Company), Jenny
Beavan
"The Tempest" (Miramax), Sandy Powell
"True Grit" (Paramount), Mary Zophres
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And the winner is: Alice in Wonderland (costumes
and sets make up this movie – but not make-up)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE"Exit through the Gift Shop" (Producers Distribution
Agency), A Paranoid Pictures Production, Banksy and
Jaimie D’Cruz
"Gasland", A Gasland Production, Josh Fox and Trish
Adlesic
"Inside Job" (Sony Pictures Classics), A Representational
Pictures Production, Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs"Restrepo" (National Geographic Entertainment), An
Outpost Films Production, Tim Hetherington and
Sebastian Junger
"Waste Land"(Arthouse Films), An Almega Projects
Production, Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
And the winner is: Exit through the Gift Shop
(because of all the anxiety wondering if Banksy will be his usual no show/hooded man of mystery or accept with
a monkey mask which would be absolutely terrific,
IMHO)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Killing in the Name", A Moxie Firecracker FilmsProduction, Nominees to be determined
"Poster Girl", A Portrayal Films Production, Nominees
to be determined
"Strangers No More", A Simon & Goodman Picture
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Company Production, Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
"Sun Come Up", A Sun Come Up Production, Jennifer
Redfearn and Tim Metzger
"The Warriors of Qiugang", A Thomas Lennon FilmsProduction, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
And the winner is: Got me…(pick the most tragic
story that tugs at your heart)
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Andrew Weisblum"The Fighter"(Paramount), Pamela Martin
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Tariq
Anwar
"127 Hours"(Fox Searchlight), Jon Harris
"The Social Network" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Angus
Wall and Kirk Baxter
And the winner is: The Social Network
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
"Biutiful"(Roadside Attractions), A Menage Atroz, Mod
Producciones and Ikiru Films Production, Mexico
"Dogtooth"(Kino International), A Boo Production,
Greece"In a Better World"(Sony Pictures Classics), A Zentropa
Production, Denmark
"Incendies"(Sony Pictures Classics), A Micro-Scope
Production, Canada
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"Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)"(Cohen Media Group),
A Tassili Films Production, Algeria
And the winner is: Biutiful
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
"Inception"(Warner Bros.),Richard King
"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney), Tom Myers and Michael
Silvers
"Tron: Legacy"(Walt Disney), Gwendolyn Yates Whittleand Addison Teague
"True Grit"(Paramount), Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
"Unstoppable" (20th Century Fox), Mark P. Stoeckinger
And the winner is: Inception
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary A.
Rizzo and Ed Novick
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Paul
Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
"Salt"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg
P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Ren
Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
"True Grit" (Paramount), Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey,
Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
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And the winner is: Inception
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS"Alice in Wonderland"(Walt Disney), Ken Ralston,
David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"(Warner
Bros.), Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and
Nicolas Aithadi
"Hereafter" (Warner Bros.), Michael Owens, Bryan
Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
"Inception" (Warner Bros.), Paul Franklin, Chris
Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
"Iron Man 2"(Paramount and Marvel Entertainment,
Distributed by Paramount), Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged
Wright and Daniel Sudick
And the winner is: Inception
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY"127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny
Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing),
Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin"Toy Story 3"(Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael
Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee
Unkrich
"True Grit" (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel
Coen & Ethan Coen
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"Winter’s Bone"(Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the
screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
And the winner is: The Social Network, AaronSorkin
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Another Year"(Sony Pictures Classics), Written by
Mike Leigh
"The Fighter"(Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith
Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right"(Focus Features), Written by
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company),
Screenplay by David Seidler
And the winner is: The King’s S peech
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
"Barney’s Version"(Sony Pictures Classics), Adrien
Morot"The Way Back"(Newmarket Films in association with
Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment),
Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda
Toussieng
"The Wolfman"(Universal), Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
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And the winner is: Barney’ s Version (because it’ s
a Canadian story)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE"How to Train Your Dragon"(Paramount), John Powell
"Inception"(Warner Bros.), Hans Zimmer
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company),
Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network"(Sony Pictures Releasing), Trent
Reznor and Atticus Ross
And the winner is: The Social Network (the music
rocked in this film)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong" (Sony Pictures
Releasing (Screen Gems)), Music and Lyric by Tom
Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from "Tangled" (Walt Disney), Music
by Alan Menken, Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight), Music by
A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3" (Walt
Disney), Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
And the winner is: Who cares? (This is such a
lame category – but I liked Randy Newman back in the
1970’ s))
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BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"Day & Night" (Walt Disney), A Pixar Animation
Studios Production, Teddy Newton
"The Gruffalo", A Magic Light Pictures Production,Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
"Let’s Pollute", A Geefwee Boedoe Production, Geefwee
Boedoe
"The Lost Thing", (Nick Batzias for Madman
Entertainment), A Passion Pictures Australia Production,
Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a
Journey Diary)", A Sacrebleu Production, BastienDubois
And the winner is: Day & Night
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"The Confession" (National Film and Television School),A National Film and Television School Production, Tanel
Toom
"The Crush"(Network Ireland Television), A Purdy
Pictures Production, Michael Creagh
"God of Love", A Luke Matheny Production, Luke
Matheny
"Na Wewe"(Premium Films), A CUT! Production, Ivan
Goldschmidt"Wish 143", A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures
Production, Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
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And the winner is: Na Wewe, (take your pick here,
but vote for a movie with kids and death and guns and
tragedy, if possible get all of them in one movie)
So, there you have it. Place your bets, grab your popcorn
and enjoy the greatest worst show on earth!
Craig Forgrave
(MarketBOB) For all my books and writing
projects, drop by my writer site
http://www.cforgrave.com/ and my home base for terrific
ideas at http://ideariffic.com/ For the latest analysis of
movies and how they make us feel, go to
http://www.marketbob.com/ and read a free excerpt from
my book on Amazon Kindle.