Home > Documents > McDonalds MCD

McDonalds MCD

Date post: 18-Jan-2016
Category:
Author: i-am-a-koala
View: 39 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
Description:
Mcd
Embed Size (px)
of 21 /21
1 McDonald’s Corporation Analyst Maria Jose Abuawad April 23, 2013 Figure 1 1 Year Performance MCD vs. S&P 500 Ticker MCD Exchange NYSE Industry Restaurants Sector Consumer Staples Classification Income and Capital Appreciation Market Cap. US $99.3 Billion 52 Week Price range $83.31 - $99.78 Recent Price $99.05 Current P/E 18.48 Projected 2015 P/E 17.5x Projected 2015 EPS $7.24 Dividend Yield 3.10% Debt Rating A Beta 0.34 HOLD Strong brand Economies of scale Cohesive franchisee system International growth opportunities High profit margins Pays a dividend Market share leader Vulnerable to currency exchange Highly competitive industry Obesity propensity Threat of Competition: HIGH Threat of New Entrants: LOW Threat of Substitutes: HIGH Power of Suppliers: MODERATE Power of Buyers: MODERATE McDonald’s is the leading global foodservice retailer with more than 34,000 local restaurants serving nearly 69 million people in 119 countries. The company operates in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, and Latin America. The restaurants offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages, as well as breakfast menus. McDonald’s employs 1.8 million people. It also franchises 80% of its restaurants. The company was founded in 1940 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois. 1 1 Yahoo Finance Pros: Cons: Porter’s Five Forces: Brief Overview Recommendation:
Transcript
  • 1

    McDonalds Corporation Analyst Maria Jose Abuawad April 23, 2013

    Figure 1 1 Year Performance MCD vs. S&P 500

    Ticker MCD

    Exchange NYSE

    Industry Restaurants

    Sector Consumer Staples

    Classification Income and Capital

    Appreciation

    Market Cap. US $99.3 Billion

    52 Week Price range $83.31 - $99.78

    Recent Price $99.05

    Current P/E 18.48

    Projected 2015 P/E 17.5x

    Projected 2015 EPS $7.24

    Dividend Yield 3.10%

    Debt Rating A

    Beta 0.34

    HOLD

    Strong brand

    Economies of scale Cohesive franchisee system

    International growth opportunities

    High profit margins Pays a dividend

    Market share leader Vulnerable to currency exchange

    Highly competitive industry Obesity propensity

    Threat of Competition: HIGH Threat of New Entrants: LOW Threat of Substitutes: HIGH Power of Suppliers: MODERATE

    Power of Buyers: MODERATE

    McDonalds is the leading global foodservice retailer with more than 34,000 local restaurants serving nearly 69 million people in 119 countries. The company operates in the United States, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, Canada, and Latin America. The restaurants offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages, as well as breakfast menus. McDonalds employs 1.8 million people. It also franchises 80% of its restaurants. The company was founded in 1940 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.1

    1 Yahoo Finance

    Pros:

    Cons:

    Porters Five Forces:

    Brief Overview

    Recommendation:

  • 2

    The EIF purchased 365 shares of McDonalds (MCD) on March 6, 2009. Each share was worth $53.98. Now, McDonalds shares are trading at $98.51. This yields a 115% total return including dividends. McDonalds is the second best performer in the consumer staples sector, after Diageo Adr with a total return of 120%. MCD stock also provides a solid dividend yield and the fund is currently receiving a 3.16% annual return. Currently, the consumer staples sector compromises a 16.23% of the EIF portfolio. The target for this semester is 11.66%. This difference makes the fund overweight in the consumer staples sector by 4.57. Although the sector is currently overweight, I dont see any reason to sell MCD stock. The company is trading at its 52 week high, but dividends received and the capital appreciation still makes this stock worth owning

    Consumer Staples

    Altria Group Inc 793 $24,931.92 4.88% $ 23,512.45 2.90% 2.03%

    Diageo Plc-Sponsored Adr 246 $28,678.68 4.88% $ 21,505.32 2.66% 1.86%

    Mcdonald's Corp 365 $19,702.70 4.88% $ 32,196.00 3.98% 2.78%

    Procter & Gamble Co/The 460 $26,367.20 4.88% $ 36,073.68 4.46% 3.12%

    Starbucks Corp 510 $26,229.49 4.88% $ 27,351.30 3.38% 2.36%

    2,374 125,910 0 140,639 17.37% 12.15%

    Company Name Ticker

    Cost Per

    Share Current

    Price

    Equity Holding Period

    Total Return (%)

    Equity Holding

    Period Total Return ($)

    Equity YTD Appreciation Return (%)

    Equity YTD

    Total Return

    (%)

    PE Ratio TTM

    Equity Percentage

    Dividend Yield

    Correlation

    Altria Group Inc MO 34.17 33.61 0.9496296 $25,731.93 13.36% 20.96% 15.20 2.87% 5.24% 0.396924804

    Diageo Plc.-Sponsored Adr DEO 70.7 123.249 1.198117 $20,837.89 40.98% 46.07% N/A 3.26% 1.83% 0.711924381

    McDonalds Corp MCD 53.98 98.51 1.145804 $22,575.43 -1.81% 2.14% 18.38 3.87% 3.13% 0.577851496

    Procter & Gamble Co/The PG 57.32 76.61 0.4638683 $12,230.91 14.84% 19.61% 19.34 3.79% 2.93% 0.53222093

    Total

    3597.6072 0.855463932 $625,247.97 36.54% #VALUE!

    100.00%

    Portfolio Considerations

  • 3

    -MCD stock is not strongly correlated with any of the stocks in our portfolio. Purchase Rationale The Educational Investment Fund decided to purchase a 3% position of McDonalds (MCD) on the recommendation of Anna Kruhavets.

    Main supporting arguments:

    One of the most valuable brands in the world

    Market leader in virtually every country it has a presence Superior performance and positive long-term outlook Well-covered dividends Upside history More defensive business model in the restaurant industry2

    The fast food industry provides quick-service food products to consumers. Customers usually pay before eating. The purchases are usually consumed on-site or taken out for home consumption. These companies are involved in retail, transport, distribution, and food services. The key economic drivers for the industry are global consumer spending, consumer sentiment, and world price volatility of agriculture. The industries that supply the food industry are the global agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing industries. 3 According to the National Restaurant Association, the full-service restaurant segment is projected to post its third consecutive year of real sales growth during 2013. Total sales are expected to be $208 billion, up 2.9% from $202.2 billion last year.4

    2 Anna Kruhavets report 2009

    3 Ibis World

    4 National Restaurant Association

    Industry Overview

  • 4

    During the past 5 years, the global fast food industry has expanded despite changing consumer tastes and the struggling economy. During recessions consumers cut down on luxuries like eating out, but fast food restaurants like McDonalds were not greatly affected. On the other hand, increasingly health conscious has hurt the demand for greasy foods provided by these restaurants. Restaurants have responded by increasing the number of healthy option on their menus. Moreover, the growing demand from emerging economies boosted the industrys overall performance. In many developed nations the industry is approaching saturation levels. The reason for this is the oversupply of fast food businesses and extensive franchising. This results in weaker revenue growth and intense price-based and product-based competition. Over the next five years many fast food chains will start to introduce new healthy food alternatives and expand their current product lines. This will include fresh items, organic produce, and much less fried items. It is possible that these personalized changes will involve less standardization but consumers are more willing to pay higher prices for healthier foods. The personalization and the continued expansion into emerging markets will result in revenue growth of 4.5% per year on average to $623.6 million up to 2017.5 The two major players are McDonalds Corporation and Yum! Brands Inc. McDonalds held 20.9% of the market share in 2011. Yum! Brands held 11.9% of the market. The next market share leader is Subway with an estimate market share of 3.5%.

    Global fast food restaurants will benefit as the global economy improves and consumers continue to spend again on luxuries like eating out. The primary expansion driver of industry growth will be the expansion of US-based fast food chains. The global consumer

    5 Ibis World

  • 5

    spending is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5% and the demand for fast foods will increase in line with this expansion.

    Moreover, the competition is very likely to intensify in the next couple of years especially in developed nations. This, in hand, will increase the price-based competition and the emphasis on the regular introduction of new products. The oversupply of the fast food business has weakened revenue growth, demand, pricing, and product competition. These trends, along with health issues concern analysts. The high number of obese children can also be attributed to fast food restaurants. Obese children and the aging population that demand less fast food is also a concern. Major operators will look to expand their revenues and profits by offering healthier and less costly alternatives to red meat items. These less costly alternatives and healthier products will reduce industry margins.

    Given these factors, some single-product operators, such as those of only hamburgers, will face the greatest risks over the next 5 years. Therefore, it is expected that Asia and the Middle East are regions where the US-based fast food brands have not saturated the market yet and where these operators are booming. Newly industrialized nations such as

  • 6

    India, Russia, and Brazil will also increase their consumption of fast food as their average incomes continue to grow and people can afford to purchase Western fast food. These Western food chains will have to incorporate more local traditional cuisines to prosper.

    On the other hand, restaurants will continue to consolidate and underperforming stores will close, particularly in developed markets. Profit margins are expected to weaken as the industry continues to mature and prices remain steady or decline. This is where McDonalds should be emulated. The company has increased its success by expanding their menu to include high margin food items such as coffee and smoothies. These low-costs, high-profit items offer a great way to increase revenues and increase bottom lines.

    Revenue Outlook

    Figure 2 Ibis World Graph

    The global fast food industry is in the growth phase of its industry life cycle. The industry value added, which measures an industrys contribution to the overall economy, is

    Year Revenue $ billion Growth %

    2013 526.2 5.3

    2014 551.0 4.7

    2015 574.3 4.2

    2016 600.0 4.5

    2017 623.6 3.9

    2018 645.6 3.5

  • 7

    forecasted to increase at an annualized rate of 2.9% until 2017. Even though it is less than the expected global GDP growth, over the long term the industry is expected to outperform the global economy. The key external drivers are global consumer spending, the consumer sentiment index, and the world price volatility of agriculture. The growth of this particular industry is very sensitive to changes in global consumer spending. During recession, unemployment causes decreases in consumption levels. If personal consumption is high, consumers are more likely to spend money on eating out. Since global consumer spending is expected to increase, the industry is provided with an opportunity for growth. Changes in consumer sentiment also greatly influence household expenditures on discretionary items such as fast foods. If consumers are optimistic about the economy they spend more on these particular items. East Asia is one of the largest sources of revenue growth and expansion for the industry. The ability of the industry to prosper and gain profits depends on the performance of the regions economy and the demand for fast foods. Last but not least, the world price volatility of agriculture is also a strong indicator of the prices that fast food restaurants can expect to pay for their supplies. If the price of the ingredients goes up then the costs increase and profit margins shrink because the extra costs are not passed on to consumers. This particular driver is expected to increase in the following years as well. The fast food industry has grown during the past 5 years. This has been the case even though the economy has been hit hard and costumers have also been aware of the health risks with a diet high in fat, salt, and sugars. Even with these factors, the industry has experienced growth in emerging markets. As the economy plunged into recession consumers were more selective of how they spend their disposable income. In 2009 global consumer spending declined 0.9%. Luxuries such as eating out were the most affected. Many consumers cut out fast foods from their diets, and others simply moved towards the lower priced items in fast food restaurants. This forced companies to promote their restaurants as the place to get the greatest value for their money.

    Industry Performance

  • 8

    In developed nations the industry is approaching saturation levels because of the oversupply of fast food businesses and extensive franchising. Because of this, the industry is experiencing weaker revenue growth and demand, intense price-based and product-based competition. Developed nations and regions make up a large percent of industry revenue in 2012. Many operators in developed nations particularly expanded their menus to ensure that they retain their customers.

    On the other hand, operators have been pushing into emerging markets. These markets include Asia, Russia, South America, and India. These countries are attractive because of their large populations and rapid population growth. They also have a large share of younger age groups that are the main consumers of fast foods. Likewise, these emerging economies also have increasing incomes and a growing middle-class that desire Western foods.

  • 9

    MAJOR MARKETS

    Threat of Competition High The competition in the fast food industry is high and the trend is increasing. Operators compete on the basis of price, location, food quality and consistency, style and presentation, and food range. New products are constantly being introduced because variety greatly affects consumer demand. Service is also expected to increase in quality. Restaurants are constantly implementing strategies such as drive-thru. The competition between franchises and locally operated fast food restaurants adds to the competition. Even though the single-location fast foods account for a small share of restaurants their share of industry revenue is larger. They have successfully established their restaurants in high traffic locations and at the same time in marketing their brands. Threat of New Entrants Low The fast food industry is made up of large chains that already count with economies of scale, distribution channels, and technological advances. On the other hand, low start-up costs make it easy to compete in the industry. Although there are many competitors entering the market, on the global scale the giants like McDonalds are still in advantage. It

    Porters Five Forces

  • 10

    is very unlikely that the new entrants will take any significant market shares. Fast food giants like McDonalds count with brand loyalty that makes it hard for new entrants to pose a threat.

    Barriers to Entry6

    Barriers to Entry checklist

    Level/Impact

    Industry Competition

    High

    Industry Concentration

    Low

    Life Cycle Stage

    Growing

    Capital Intensity

    Medium

    Technology Change

    Medium Regulation and Policy

    Heavy

    Industry Assistance

    None

    Threat of Substitutes High Fast foods are discretionary items that are easily substituted by other types of meals . These might include meals prepared at home, dine-in restaurants, deliveries, and meals supplied at convenient stores. Since customers have become more aware of the health effects of fast foods other substitutes are becoming more and more attractive. Vast amounts of money have been spent on marketing and promoting healthier fast foods to be able to compete with healthier options. Restaurants need to change the image customers have and at the same time increase brand awareness. Power of Suppliers Moderate 7Supplier relations are very important to this industry. The prices charged by suppliers are

    the major factors that affect net income. Although the supplies are commodities and

    suppliers do not have the ability to charge more than the market, operators do not have the

    chance to bargain for cheaper products

    or large quantity discounts. Good

    relationships are crucial to this

    particular industry so that large

    quantities of supplies are available

    when needed. Lastly, although there

    6 Ibis World

    7 IbisWorld

  • 11

    are many suppliers, location is extremely important. So suppliers closer to the operators

    substantially influence transportation costs. The fact that suppliers do not have the ability

    to increase prices but operators do not have the ability to bargain makes supplier power

    moderate in the fast food industry.

    Power of Buyers Moderate

    Although customers do not have the power to influence price directly, they influence it

    greatly. With the social media and health concerns customers can readily supply opinions

    and influence others with these. All companies in the fast food industry must adhere to

    social regulations; spend in enhancing their brand reputation, and promoting quality

    standards so that customers feel safe and content when consuming their products.

    HISTORY8

    McDonalds began in 1940 when brothers Maurice and Richard McDonald opened their first restaurant in 1398 North E Street at West 14th Street in San Bernardino, California. Their introduction of the Speedee Service System in 1948 advanced the principle of our modern fast-food restaurants. The original mascot of McDonalds was a man with a chefs hat on top of a burger shaped head. His name was Speedee. In 1967 Speedee was replaced with Ronald McDonald when the company decided to file a U.S. trademark. The company first filed for a U.S. trademark on the name in 1961 with the description of Drive-In Restaurant Services which continues to be renewed. The same year the company filed a logo trademark on the double arched M symbol.

    In 1954 Ray Kroc was surprised with a huge order of 8 multi-mixers from the restaurant in California. When he decided to follow-up he found a small successful restaurant run by two brothers called Dick and Maurice McDonald. He was shocked with the effectiveness of the

    8 Wikipedia

    Company Overview

  • 12

    operation. The brothers owned a limited menu of burgers, fries, and beverages which allowed them to concentrate on quality over quantity. Stunned as he was, he pitched to them his vision of creating McDonalds Corporation. Five years later Ray bought the exclusive rights to the name McDonalds. By 1958, McDonalds had sold is 100millionth hamburger. Ray ran McDonalds with two philosophies in mind: In business for yourself, but not by yourself and he also wanted his burgers, buns, fries, and beverages to taste the same in Alaska as they did in Alabama.9

    His principle consisted of a 3-legged stool. One leg was McDonalds, the second were the franchises, and the third were suppliers. Kroc also believed that the entrepreneurial spirit should be rewarded so he rewarded his individual franchises when they were creative. Many of McDonalds famous menu items were created by the franchises. Although creativity was rewarded, Ray made sure that the founding principles of quality, service, cleanliness, and value were still core to each individual business. In 1961 Ray launched a

    training program called Hamburger University. Here franchisees and operators were trained in the scientific methods of running a successful McDonalds. The university also had a laboratory where students could develop, cook, and serve to create new methods. With all its expansion into international markets, the company has become a symbol of globalization and spread of the American way of life. Now the company headquarters

    are located in Oak Brook, Illinois. The company employs over 440,000 people worldwide and their revenues are more than Subway and Yum! Brands combined. McDonalds has restaurants in North and South America, Europe, Australia, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The main products are hamburgers, cheeseburgers, chicken meals, fries, coffee, and milkshakes. Although these items are not seen as healthy, the company has made tremendous efforts to educate consumer and add healthy organic items to their menus. These include wraps and salads.

    Currently, McDonalds is the leading global foodservice retailer with more than 34,000 local restaurants that serve approximately 69 million people in 119 countries around the world each day. More than 80% of the restaurants worldwide are owned and operated by independent local people.

    9 McDonalds History

  • 13

    The alignment of the company, its franchises, and suppliers has been key to the companys success. The business model enables McDonalds to deliver consistent, locally-relevant restaurant experiences to customers and at the same time be an integral part of the community. The companys model also enables it to identify and implement innovative ideas that meet customers chaining needs and preferences. It provides a common framework for global business but also allows for local adaptation. Its main strategy consists of winning the five elements of people, products, place, price, and promotion.

    McDonalds is now more aware than ever of the increasing trends of nutrition and fitness. Whether its a quick breakfast, lunch or dinner, customers look for quality at a great value. McDonalds goal is to continuously improve the classic offerings and increase the number and variety of new options that deliver the great taste and balance that customers seek.

    The company offers customers a way to learn about nutrition information. The company has been guided by the Global Advisory Council to continue to evolve the overall approach while still meeting customer expectations.

    OUTLOOK FOR 201310

    McDonalds will continue to build the business in 2013 by enhancing customer experiences

    across the pillars of their Plan and the three global growth priorities. This way they will be

    able to optimize their menus, modernize their customer experiences and broaden

    accessibility to the brand. The company possesses a brand advantage in convenience,

    variety, value, and viable business model. McDonalds will highlight promotions of the core

    menu items, while strategically expanding the menu with relevant new offerings. They will

    also place an emphasis on scaling success quickly around the globe.

    10

    McDonalds 10-K

    Outlook

    Strategic Direction

  • 14

    In 2013 the U.S. business will focus on driving sales and guest counts by enhancing the

    entire customer experience. The company will satisfy customer needs with the food they

    crave by balancing core favorites with limited time offers an innovative products. Menus

    will also include brand messages that highlight quality of food and ingredients, efforts to

    promote children health and well-being of the community. Finally the company is

    remodeling about 800 locations in the U.S.

    In Europe the company sees growth opportunities in the breakfast menu and beverages.

    Around 300 new restaurants will be opened in Europe in 2013. McDonalds believes that

    despite the headwinds due to economic uncertainty and government austerity Europe

    offers significant long-term opportunity and the company is positioned to capitalize on the

    potential benefits.

    Finally, in the rest of the world the companys goal is to make investments that elevate the

    experience and drive sustainable growth. McDonalds focuses on markets that generate

    acceptable returns or that have opportunities for growth.

    HOLD

    Recommendation

  • 15

    Strong brand because of increased spending in marketing and quality. McDonalds is

    one of the worlds largest giants in the fast food industry. It has created strong customer loyalty and reputation. With the increased healthy items on the menu and the specialized items in each country the company serves more customers.

    Economies of scale because the company counts with many different restaurants, including franchises, around the world that help the company enjoy the benefits of economies of scale.

    Cohesive franchisee system that accounts for about 80% of the restaurants. MCD receives a franchisee fee for each franchisee it leases.

    An international growth opportunity since the company has been pursuing growth opportunities in emerging markets. McDonalds targets each country differently. It customizes products and expands into markets where there is an emerging middle class that is willing to spend in Western foods.

    High profit margins because the company counts with loss cost and higher priced items that increase the profit margins.

    Pays dividends that helps the fund pay-off investors and enjoy returns.

    Market share leader since McDonalds owns 20.9% of the world market share of fast food restaurants.

    Slow but steady growth since the economy is bouncing up after the recessions and the Fiscal Cliff uncertainty.

    Vulnerable to currency exchange because McDonalds franchises and restaurants are located all around the world. At the same time supplies are bought from all around the world so the company faces increased currency risks.

    Trading at its 52 week high right now. MCD is not an attractive stock to purchase at the moment, but because of the dividend yield and sustainable growth it is one to keep.

    Overweight in the portfolio with regards to equity stocks.

    Highly competitive industry affects revenues and growth potentials. Companies competing in such a highly competitive industry are faced with increasing price

    Pros to Recommendation

    Cons to Recommendation

    jdlasKF;DAS

  • 16

    rivalries and marketing expenses that reduce profit margins and in general the bottom line.

    Obesity propensity is currently becoming an issue. Increased health effects and social media have made customer aware of the health factors associated with consuming greasy fatty foods. Fast food restaurants need to increase their organic and healthy meal options to compete in a society that is leaning towards healthier lifestyles

    TRENDS:

    Current Month Last Month Two Months

    Ago Three Months

    Ago

    Strong Buy 5 5 5 4

    Buy 10 10 10 11

    Hold 13 13 13 12

    Underperform 1 1 1 1

    Sell 0 0 0 0

    Analyst Recommendations

    jdlasKF;DAS

  • 17

    Cons to Recommendation

    R Ratio Analysis Yum BKW SBUX

    Profitability Ratios 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012

    Profit margin 20.5% 20.4% 19.8% 10.58% 5.99% 10.50%

    Gross margin 45.8% 56.6% 56.3% 71.58% 64.80% 57.35%

    ROA 15.5% 16.7% 15.4% 17.90% 2.11% 14.29%

    ROE 33.8% 38.2% 35.7% 48.45% 10.52% 29.45% Liquidity Ratios

    Current 1.49 1.25 1.45 0.87 2.24 1.85

    Quick 1.46 1.22 1.41 0.49 1.82 1.14 Debt Utilization

    Debt to Equity 1.18 1.29 1.31 66.4 59.21 77.4

    Leverage 2.18 2.29 2.31 4.49 5.02 1.64 Asset Utilization

    Asset Turnover 0.75 0.82 0.78 1.02 0.35 1.71

    Inventory Turnover 118.83 100.28 98.94 13.22 N/A 5.27 Valuation Ratios

    P/E 15.4x 15.9x 17.3x 19.49 31.62 19.3

    Price/Book 5.6x 7.2x 6.3x 13.55 4.9 7.7

    Price/Cash Flow 12.9x 14.5x 13.8x 13.01 25.62 62 DuPont Analysis

    Profit Margin 20.5% 20.4% 19.8% 10.58% 5.99% 10.50%

    Asset Turnover 0.75 0.82 0.78 1.02 0.35 1.71

    Leverage 2.18 2.29 2.31 4.49 5.02 1.64

    ROE 33.8% 38.2% 35.7% 48.45% 10.52% 29.45%

    ATIO ANALYSIS

    Profitability Ratios

    McDonalds is leading the industry with regards to profit margins. It went slightly down in 2012

    because of the slight increase in tax expenses from 2011 to 2012. The company is slightly below

    than competitors with regards to gross margins because McDonalds has been focusing on quality

    and this has increased cost of goods sold slightly. Return on assets decreased slightly in 2012

    because of total assets increased, but it is still a healthy one. Return on equity is healthy, although it

    is slightly below its competitor Yum.

    Ratio Analysis

    jdlasKF;DAS

  • 18

    Liquidity Ratios:

    MCDs ratios are in line with competitors, but the company has slightly lower ratios than Burger

    King. This is of no issue because the company has the ability to drive sales and produce cash to pay

    debt quickly with promotions and advertisement.

    Debt Utilization Ratios:

    Debt to equity has increased slightly because of the increased growth into emerging economies. The

    company does not finance its growth with debt as heavily as competitors. The company is at less

    risk of bankruptcy than its competitors. Leverage is relatively low with regards to competitors as

    well.

    Asset Utilization Ratios:

    Utilization ratios are very healthy. Asset turnover is a little lower than competitors because of the

    lower profit margins with value meals and the healthy approaches they are expanding towards. On

    the other hand, inventory turnover is extremely healthy. The company turns over inventory faster

    than any other company in the industry. This is crucial in an industry where goods are perishable.

    This can also be attributed to the pricing strategies they have and the number of clients that

    consume McDonalds every day.

    Valuation Ratios:

    Valuation ratios are constantly growing but are relatively lower than the competitors. This

    demonstrates that investors are willing to pay more each year for MCD stock. On the other hand,

    they are willing to pay less than what they would for competitor stocks. This can be attributed to

    the fact that competitors have greater growth opportunities. That being said, McDonalds is still a

    market leader.

    Revenue I projected revenue taking into consideration the last three years averages and my opinion on how fast the company is growing. Due to increase in disposable income and consumer spending, I find

    Assumptions

    jdlasKF;DAS

  • 19

    that a 4% growth rate is appropriate and conservative for the market leader in the fast food service industry. Cost of Revenue I used an estimate based on previous years and management discussion to determine the cost of revenue at about 44% of revenues. Operating Expenses I estimated operating expenses using the three year average and the percent of sales approach. Taxes I used a 31% tax taking into consideration management discussions and the three year average. Risk Free Rate I used the 30 year Treasury bond rate of 3.60% Market Risk Premium I used 5.7%, the 80-year historical rate. Beta For beta, I used several analyst opinions as guidance, but ultimately I used the beta I obtained from my regression analysis. Capital Expenditures I estimated capital expenditures to decrease at approximately 12 each year, the average decline of CAPEX over the last three years. Dividends I estimated future dividends based on 2012 dividend growth. P/E For the P/E ratio I used analyst opinions and value line estimates as guidance.

  • 20

    McDonald's Fails to Boost Sales With Dollar Menu

    McDonald's managed to eke out a higher profit for its first quarter even as the world's biggest

    hamburger chain failed to lift sales with its Dollar Menu.

    The company said Friday that an important sales measurement fell 1 percent during the period

    and warned that it's expected to dip again in April.

    That marked the first quarterly decline in a decade in sales at restaurants open at least 13

    months and underscored the troubles the company has been facing.

    As Burger King and Wendy's have stepped up their marketing over the past year or so,

    McDonald's has responded by aggressively touting its Dollar Menu and other value deals to hold

    onto customers in an industry where imitation is rampant.

    The strategy has caused concern among analysts who worry that it could eat into profit margins.

    It's also rankled some McDonald's franchisees, who operate the vast majority of its restaurants

    in the U.S.

    But in a conference call with analysts Friday, McDonald's executives insisted that offering

    cheaper prices was necessary in the current climate. Since the restaurant industry is barely

    growing, they said McDonald's needs to steal customers away from rivals to grow.

    "That battle for market share has become so critical for the long-term health of business, we're

    willing to sacrifice that margin," said Peter Bensen, the company's chief financial officer.

    Although profit margins declined during the first quarter, McDonald's noted that it picked off

    market share in many parts of the world, including the U.S.

    But there are signs such deals aren't sitting well with the independent franchisees who operate

    restaurants.

    A survey by Janney Capital Markets released this week found that a sampling of 25 U.S.

    franchisees who collectively operate 180 McDonald's restaurants on average rated their relations

    Current Events

    jdlasKF;DAS

  • 21

    with the company below their historic levels. Janney said some complained about excessive

    coupons and discounts.

    Meanwhile, McDonald's emphasis on the Dollar Menu, which began last year, has had a ripple

    effect in the industry. Burger King recently said it's retooling its strategy and is now touting a

    deal for a $1.29 Junior Whopper, among others. Wendy's also revamped its value menu last

    year, saying it wants to offer customers more options.

    The focus value menus and deals, which have long a staple in the traditional fast-food industry,

    is in contrast to attempts by the same chains to evolve and adapt to changing tastes. As more

    people flock to places such as Chipotle and Panera McDonald's has also tried to freshen up its

    offerings and raise the image of its food. In addition to the chicken McWraps, for example, the

    company is rolling out a version of its Egg McMuffin made with egg whites next week.

    Such items are generally more expensive, and CEO Don Thompson noted that they could help

    improve margins in coming quarters.

    For the three months ended March 31, the global sales drop included a 1.2 percent decline in the

    U.S. The sales figure fell 1.1 percent in Europe, the company's biggest region by sales.

    It fell 3.3 percent in the region encompassing Asia, the Middle East and Africa, reflecting

    weakness in Japan and a 4.6 percent drop in China. The company blamed the decline partly on

    the aftereffects of the recent scare of the chicken supply for KFC, which is owned by Yum Brands

    Inc.

    McDonald's Corp., based in Oak Brook, Ill., has more than 34,000 locations worldwide, about

    14,000 of those in the U.S.

    For the quarter, it earned $1.27 billion, or $1.26 per share. That compares with $1.267 billion, or

    $1.23 per share, a year ago.

    Revenue edged up 1 percent to $6.6 billion.

    Analysts expected a profit of $1.26 per share on revenue of $6.59 billion, according to FactSet.

    Shares fell $1.99, or 2 percent, to close at $99.92 Friday.


Recommended