Minnesota Demographic Change And Dentistry

Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer

Mn Dept of Administration

March 2008

Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators

• 2nd percent of 16-64 employed (76.9%)

• 8th lowest poverty rate

• 1st percent with health insurance 2004-06 ave

• 9th median family income in 2006

• 1st Kids Count 2007

• 4th lowest rate of disability among people age 16-64

• 1st with at least high school degree (90.7%)

• 12th with at least a bachelor’s degree

• 1st home ownership

• 2nd United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness 2007

Updated October 2007

Rank Mn Rate US Rate

Motor Vehicle Deaths 3 1.0 1.5

Obesity 21 22.6% 23.1%

Lack of Health Insurance 1 8.9% 15.7%

Pre Natal Care 27 75.8% 75.4%

Public Health Spending 6 $249 $162

Immunization (children 19-35 months) 11 85.2% 80.9%

Infant Mortality 2 4.8 6.7

YPPL 1 5728 7564

Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Health Outcome Measures

2005 United Health Foundation Rankings

Successful, YesBut Demographic Mega-trends Are

Altering The Face Of Minnesota

Suburban growth/ rural and central city not growing

Increasingly diverse

Aging

And these changes are altering the client base for dentistry as well as the workforce

Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼ Million People In The Next 30 Years

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

20002007

20102015

20202025

20302035

Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut

• Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state

• Suburban ring is spreading outward

• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation

• Rural and central city declines since 1950

• Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore development have implications for natural resource management

Population Change

Loss

Gain Under 1,000

Gain 5,000 to 1,000

Gain More Than 5,000

Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate

Minnesota is Growing More Diverse

• Minnesota is one of the least diverse states in the nation—13% minority v US 32%

• Over half of total population growth this decade is minority.

• And this is related to age—new, diverse population is younger

Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation

4%

6%

6%

9%

9%

24%

9%

14%

9%

13%

14%

33%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Iowa

Minnesota

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wisconsin

United States

Percent Population of Color

2005

1990

Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate

Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People

20%

16%17%

12%

8%6%

5%3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under 1

0

10 to

19

20 to

29

30 to

39

40 to

49

50 to

59

60 to

69

70+

Age Group

Pe

rce

nt

Min

ori

ty

2000 Census

Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In

Local Employment

25.9%26.2%

27.6%30.5%30.6%

31.6%32.8%

36.6%37.3%37.5%

43.4%18.7%

11.0%3.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Mountain LakeMadelia

Westbrook-Walnut GroveSleepy Eye

MinneapolisColumbia Heights

Pelican RapidsBrooklyn Center

RichfieldWorthington

St. PaulNational 03State 06-07State 93-94

Percent of Students in 2006-07

Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.

Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation

• It is not normal for a society to age

• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond

• The leading edge of “Boomers” turn 60 this year!

• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double

• Aging, combined with growth and increased diversity will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated

From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in Minnesota Will Be in Ages 55 to 69

16,2003,9006,700

44,50098,000

119,400107,200

55,500-43,400

-64,100-700

67,20051,800

-9,600-29,200

7,40049,100

37,600

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Source: Minnesota State Demographic CenterNumbers are rounded

The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011

65+ Passes School Age Around 2020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24

65+

5-17

Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services

• Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated dental appliances and prosthetics, such as bridges.

• Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth than in the past, and are thus more likely to experience destructive periodontal disease.

• While the percentage of individuals older than age 65 without any teeth has declined tremendously over past 20-30 years, it is still higher than for those younger than 65.

• Older adults often have additional medical conditions that cause a higher level of maintenance to be necessary in order to maintain their oral health.

Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7/05 to7/06

7/06 to7/07

7/07 to7/08

7/08 to7/09

7/09 to7/10

7/10 to7/11

7/11 to7/12

Year Turning Age 62

Wo

rke

d W

ith

in P

as

t 5

ye

ars

2005 ACS

Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase

6.8%

4.5%

-1.6%-2.2%

13.0%

-1.2%

-3.5% -3.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

18-2

4 US

Mn

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007

Migration Will Be An Increasingly Important Component To The Slowing

Labor Force Growth

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Total Natural Part Rate Migration

Net Labor Force Growth

State Demographer projection revised 2007

Two Thirds of Active Minnesota Dentist Are 50+

4% 5%

19% 14%

26%

14%

30%

36%

21%30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nation Minnesota

Per

cen

t O

f D

enti

sts

60+

50-59

40-49

30-39

Under 30

2006 American Community Survey

Dentists Are Older Than The Overall Workforce

66%

20%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Dentists

Dental Hygenists& Assistants

Total Workforce

Percent Of Workforce Age 50+

2006 ACS

U.S. Age Structure Of Dentals And Related Occupations

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Under 2

5

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

475

+

Dentist

Hyginests

Dental Asst

2006 American Community Survey