Unlocking the Power of Aviation Operations Data

MRO 2013 Presentation Quantifying utilization, turn time, and RON impact on departure reliability

Joshua Marks josh@masflight.com Mobile. +1 (703) 994-0000 4833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301 Bethesda, Maryland 20814 www.masflight.com April 16, 2013

Reliability, schedules, and turn times have an impact on departure reliability and maintenance.

• Daily Utilization vs. On-Time Departures

• Differences in narrowbodies and widebodies

• Scheduling patterns

• Impact of red-eye flying

• Scheduled and actual turn times

Do the significant differences among U.S. carriers explain the differences in reliability?

Today’s Discussion

O V E R V I E W

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 2

C O M P A R I N G O T P A N D U T I L I Z A T I O N

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 3

72.7%

76.3%

78.0%

81.0%

81.9%

83.5%

85.8%

87.0%

89.9%

93.1%

94.1%

9.0

9.1

9.3

9.4

9.5

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.3

12.0

12.1

On-Time Departure Performance (within 15 minutes of schedule) January 2013 – System Ops

Daily Aircraft Utilization (hrs) (Based on total fleet sizes)

January 2013 – System Ops

Utilization correlates to on-time performance

U T I L I Z A T I O N V S . O T P

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 4

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

7 9 11 13 ON

TIM

E D

EPA

RTU

RE

PER

FOR

MA

NC

E

HOURS OF DAILY UTILIZATION

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0

Narrowbodies By Day of Week

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0

Widebodies by Day of Week

Daily Utilization vs. On-time Departures January 2013 System Operations

Correlation Coefficient -0.53

Includes AA, AC, AS, B6,

F9, FL, NK, UA, US, VX and WN

Prevalence of red-eyes D A I L Y S C H E D U L I N G P A T T E R N S

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 5

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0

100.0 120.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

AA, UA, DL and US have similar exposure to red-eye operations

NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)

D A I L Y S C H E D U L I N G P A T T E R N S

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 6

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a -

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0

100.0 120.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a -

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

5a

6a

7a

8a

9a

10a

11a

12p 1p

2p

3p

4p

5p

6p

7p

8p

9p

10p

11p-

5a

Spirit and JetBlue have significant exposure to red-eye impact!

NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)

Prevalence of red-eyes

0.9 1.2 1.6

4.1

6.3 6.7

9.1

13.2

15.7

-1.8

-0.4 -0.5

0.4 1.5

0.5 1.8 1.4

2.7

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Alaska US Air Virgin Delta American JetBlue United Frontier Spirit

DEP

AR

TUR

E D

ELAY

MIN

UTE

S

Redeye or Quick 2nd Turn

Remain Overnight

Red-Eyes Hurt OTD Performance I M P A C T O F R E D - E Y E F L Y I N G

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 7

Average departure delay minutes are significantly higher for red-eyes

Minutes of delay

Airlines Build Recovery into Gate Turn Times

P L A N N I N G F O R R E C O V E R Y

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WN 737

B6 190

F9 320

AA M80

DL DC9

FL 717

NK 320

DL M90

DL M80

B6 320

DL 320

US 737

AS 737

AA 737

VX 320

FL 737

DL 737

US 320

UA 320

DL 757

UA 737

Min

utes

on

Gat

e

Scheduled Turn Time (Blue) vs. Average Actual Turn Time (Red) by Airline and Fleet, January 2013

Scheduled Time on Gate Additional Time Spent on Gate

Utilization, turns and on-time metrics

C O N C L U S I O N S

What are the key points observed?

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 9

UTILIZATION VS. OTP

There is a quantifiable link between daily utilization of a fleet

type and on-time performance

SCHEDULING PRACTICES

Carriers that schedule aggressive night flying operations leave little

time to “catch up”

RED-EYES HURT!

An aggressive red-eye schedule creates morning delays that create extended disruption

GATE TURNS

Airline turn times vary, but most carriers buffer additional gate time

into block plans to recover