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1 Nasdaq: MNRO Updated October 2016
Transcript

1 Nasdaq: MNRO Updated October 2016

2

Statements contained in these materials regarding Monro’s

expectations with respect to future operations and other

information, which can be identified by the use of forward

looking terminology, such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “project,”

“anticipate,” “estimate” or “continue” or the negative thereof or

variations thereon or comparable terminology, are forward

looking statements. Several factors, including certain risks and

uncertainties, could cause actual results to differ materially from

results referred to in forward looking statements. There can be

no assurance that Monro’s expectations regarding any of these

matters will be fulfilled.

Forward Looking Information

3

Who We Are

4

• Largest chain of

Company-operated

undercar care facilities

in the United States

• As of September 24,

2016, the Company

operated 1,097 stores in

26 states

• Through Car-X

acquisition in April

2015, the Company is

franchisor to 131

franchised locations in

10 states and operates 12

Car-X locations

Company Overview

5

Geographic Presence Service Tire

Stores Stores

Connecticut 36

Delaware 2 7

Florida 53

Georgia 12

Illinois 1 5

Indiana 10 29

Kentucky 33

Maine 15

Maryland 10 65

Massachusetts 39 10

Michigan 17

Missouri 22

New Hampshire 9 17

New Jersey 13 33

New York 118 35

North Carolina 32

Ohio 109 36

Pennsylvania 106 25

Rhode Island 8 2

South Carolina 1 17

Tennessee 3

Vermont 1 4

Virginia 11 59

West Virginia 7

Wisconsin 17

TOTAL 515 514

Total Company owned stores

as of March 26, 2016: 1,029

MAINTAINING DOMINANCE

IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

6

Brakes Exhaust Steering Maintenance* Tires

*Includes state inspections, lube, oil, filter, engine cooling service, scheduled maintenance and other.

Note: Monro’s fiscal year end is March of each year.

FY16 – Q2

Service Mix

Gross Margin %

Brakes and Steering = +15

Maintenance and Exhaust = baseline company margin

Tires = -10

FY15

FY16 FY17 – Q2

7

Competitive Advantages

Operating Model

• Company-operated stores

– Faster, Better, Cheaper

– Centralized purchasing and distribution

– Efficient marketing (database mailing, email, direct mail

and internet)

– Superior customer service

• Pricing power and fixed cost leverage

– Low cost operator

8

Customer Value Proposition

• Monro establishes relationships with customers based on TRUST

• Direct marketing to customers fosters repeat business and long-term

relationships

• Company-operated store model enhances customer experience through:

– High standards of customer care

– Lower turnover of store managers

– Consistent execution

– Investment in business

– Significant discount vs. dealer prices

– Store density provides more convenience

– Best price guarantee

Competitive Advantages

What’s important to DIFM customers? Source: 2014 Lang Report

9

High Customer Satisfaction

Monro Website Internet Paid Ads

•http://www.monro.com/Customer-Satisfaction-Rating

10

Monro operates in $197 billion “Do-It-For-Me*” segment of

$246 billion U.S. automotive aftermarket industry

* Includes Replacement Tire Segment.

Do-It-Yourself:

1999 - 25.7%

2009 - 22.0%

2014 - 20.5%

Do-It-For-Me:

1999 - 74.3%

2009 - 78.0%

2014 - 79.5%

Source: 2016 Lang Annual Report

Industry Overview

U.S. Automotive

Aftermarket Industry

Source: 2016 Lang Annual Report

Service Bay Population

Changes: 1999 – 2014

Total Bays / Mkt Share % (000’s)

2008

338/28.3

340/28.5

199/16.7

73/6.1

125/10.5

119/9.9

1,194/100

2014

349/29.8

287/24.5

222/18.9

82/7.0

127/10.8

106/9.0

1,173/100

11

US Light Vehicle in Operations (VIO)

Source: IHS Automotive

VIO is expected to increase 9.2% by 2020

12

258 million vehicles on road

Vehicles in operation projected to increase over 9% during 2015 - 2020

Increasing age of vehicles (12.0 years)

Number of vehicles 6 years and older to increase

Significant average annual miles driven per vehicle

Decreasing number of service outlets and bays

Increasing complexity of vehicles

Favorable demographics

Ability to raise prices

Headwinds : ― Consumer

Favorable Industry Trends

13

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

02 03 05 06 08 10 11 13 15 20F

232 236

244 246

252 250 250 250

258

282

Source: IHS Automotive.

Cars and Light Trucks in Service

.

Average Age of Car and Light Truck on the Road

Ag

e (

in y

ea

rs)

Source: 2012 Lang Report, Zacks.com, March 2015 The Lang Aftermarket iReport,

2016 Digital AutoCare Factbook.

.

U.S. Annual Light Vehicle Sales

Source: October 2012 Lang Report, September 2013 Lang Report , 2014 Lang Report,

2016 Lang Annual Report.

Vehicles per Service Bay

Favorable Industry Trends

Source: November 2012 Lang Report, 2012 Wall Street Journal, June 2014 Lang

Report and March and October 2015 and May 2016 The Lang Aftermarket iReport

14

% Change 178% 24% 17% 17% 22% 17% 12% (4)% 3% 20% 34% 35% 17% (22%) 27% 13% 6% 0%-5%

EPS Trends

•Adjusted for three-for-two stock split paid to shareholders of record as of October 21, 2003, September 21, 2007 and December 13, 2010.

•Note: Monro’s fiscal year end is March of each year.

15

Historical Financials

(Dollars in millions except per share data) 2nd

Quarter

2017

2nd

Quarter

2016

Fiscal Year

2016

Fiscal Year

2015

Sales $248.6 $239.2 $943.7 $894.5

Sales Growth (vs. prior year) 3.9% 8.1% 5.5% 7.6%

EBITDA * $ 42.6 $ 43.8 $160.7 $146.4

EBITDA Margin 17.1% 18.3% 17.0% 16.4%

Operating Income * $ 31.9 $ 34.1 $120.6 $109.8

Operating Income Margin 12.8% 14.3% 12.8% 12.3%

Net Income $ 17.5 $ 18.9 $ 66.8 $ 61.8

Net Income Margin 7.1% 7.9% 7.1% 6.9%

EPS (Diluted)

$ 0.53

$ 0.57

$ 2.00

$ 1.88

EPS Prior Year $ 0.57 $ 0.50 $ 1.88 $ 1.67

* Fiscal 2016 includes $3.6 million of due

diligence costs ($.07 EPS). Fiscal 2015

includes $1.7 million ($.03 EPS).

16

Balance Sheet Highlights

Fiscal Q/E

September 24, 2016

Fiscal Y/E

March 26, 2016

Current assets $ 200,998 $170,075

Property, plant & equipment, net 373,906 351,582

Other non-current assets 578,800 477,781

Total assets $1,153,704 $999,438

Current liabilities $ 180,000 $167,571

Capital leases and financing obligations

Other long-term debt

186,123

197,471

165,730

103,315

Other long-term liabilities 26,605 26,627

Total liabilities 590,199 463,243

Shareholders’ equity 563,505 536,195

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity $1,153,704 $999,438

Debt-to-capital (includes capital leases) 41% 34%

Debt-to-capital (excludes capital leases) 26% 16%

17

Increase market share through same store sales growth

Acquire competitors cheaply

Continue new store openings in existing markets

– Approximately 20 to 40 stores per year

Growth Strategy

18

Building Tire Store Category

Combination of 40 acquisitions in the last 15 years

- 634 stores

- $800 million revenue

Could have up to 1,300 tire stores and 1,300 service stores in our 26 states

- Creates market dominance and pricing power

- Diversifies risk

- Expands pool of acquisition candidates at attractive prices

- Concept unique and difficult for competitors to replicate

Should afford opportunity to expand operating margins and further improve business model

- Share inventory

- Advertising, logistics, operations

- Gross margins lower but SG&A absorption better

Acquisitions and Opportunities

19

Kramer Tire (April 2012) Tire King (December 2012)

• 20 stores in Virginia • 9 stores in North Carolina

• 2011 sales - $25 million • 2011 sales - $11 million

• Purchased real estate for four locations Colony Tire (June 2012)

• 18 stores in North Carolina Curry’s Auto Service (August 2013)

• 2011 sales - $25 million • 10 stores in Virginia (9) and Maryland (1)

• 2012 sales - $18 million

Tuffy/Car-X (August 2012) • Purchased real estate for one location

• 17 stores in Wisconsin (13) and South Carolina (4)

• 2011 sales - $9 million S & S Firestone (November 2013) • 4 stores in Kentucky

Tire Barn (November 2012) • 2012 sales - $5 million

• 31 stores in Indiana (27), Tennessee (3) and Illinois (1) • Purchased real estate for three locations

• 2011 sales - $64 million

Carl King Tire (November 2013)

Ken Towery Tire and Auto Care (December 2012) • 6 stores in Delaware (5) and Maryland (1)

• 27 stores in Kentucky (24) and Indiana (3) and • 2012 sales - $10 million Wholesale operation

• 2011 sales - $54 million (including Wholesale) Lentz USA/Kan Rock Tire (June 2014)

• Distribution center located in Louisville, Kentucky • 19 stores in Michigan

• 2013 sales - $14 million

Enger Tire Center/Enger Auto Service (December 2012) • Purchased real estate for all locations

• 12 stores in Ohio

• 2011 sales - $9 million

• Purchased real estate for eight locations

Recent Acquisitions

20

The Tire Choice (August 2014) Kost Tire and Windsor Tire (NY, PA, MA)

• 35 stores in Florida (July/August 2015)

• 2013 sales - $48 million • 31 stores in central New York, Pennsylvania and

• Purchased real estate for five locations Massachusetts. Kost stores = 27 locations

• 2014 sales - $31 million

Wood & Fullerton (October 2014) • Breakeven to slightly accretive in first 12 months

• 9 stores in Georgia

• 2013 sales - $10 million McGee Auto Service & Tires (May 2016)

• 29 stores and one retread facility in Florida

Gold Coast Tire & Auto Centers (December 2014) • $50 million in annualized sales

• 9 stores in Florida • Breakeven in fiscal 2017

• 2013 sales - $9 million Excel Tire (July 2016)

Martino Tire (March 2015) • 4 stores in Minnesota

• 8 stores in Florida • 2015 sales - $3.4 million

• 2014 sales - $12 million

Clark Tire (September 2016)

Car-X (April 2015) • 26 stores, four wholesale locations and one retread

• Trade name and franchise rights to 146 franchise facility in North Carolina

locations in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, • $85 million in annualized sales

Tennessee, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and Texas • Slightly dilutive in FY17

• Slightly accretive in first 12 months

Recent Acquisitions

21

FY17 Earnings Assumptions

• Earnings estimate for FY17: $2.00 - $2.10 vs $2.00 in FY16

– Q1 – FY17: $.50 vs. $.57 Q1 FY16

– Q2 – FY17: $.53 vs. $.57 Q2 FY16

– Q3 – FY17: $.51 - $.55 vs. $.46 Q3 FY16

• Comparable Store Sales decrease of 2.5% to decrease of 1.5% for FY17;

‒ Q1 FY17: - 6.9%

‒ Q2 FY17: - 4.3%

‒ Q3 FY17: 1.0% to 2.5%

• Gross Sales approximately $1.03 billion - $1.04 billion

• Operating Margin down 65 basis points at midpoint of guidance

– Depends upon sales and retail pricing environment

– Tire costs declining, benefitting margins

– Expect to overcome inflation on flat comparable store sales due to lower anticipated material costs

(normally 2% - 2.5% required)

– Improve technician productivity (Sales per Man Hour)

– Improve store execution, customer experience and marketing to drive traffic and sales

22

• Interest Expense of $17 million

• $42 million depreciation and amortization

• EBITDA approximately $174 million

• $46 million of cap-ex

– $26 million in maintenance cap-ex

– $20 million for new stores

FY17 Other Assumptions

23

Acquisitions

Same or contiguous markets

Buy right

Accretive to earnings in a reasonable timeframe

Pay down debt

FY17 Cash Flow Priorities

24

Largest chain of Company-operated undercar care facilities in the U.S.

Wide breadth of product and service offerings

Superior customer service

Favorable industry trends

Leading market position in Northeast, Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic with a presence in 26 states

Strong balance sheet and cash flow

Low cost operator with superior operating margins

13 years of consecutive sales increases

Significant growth opportunity through store expansion and acquisitions

Eleven dividend increases, in eleven years, since initiated

Investment Highlights


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