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National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices
Talina R. MathewsDepartment for Energy Development
and Independence
Electricity
• EIA forecasts that the average retail price of electricity across the US (adjusted for inflation) will remain nearly constant through 2035
• There are key uncertainties when extrapolating this forecast to KY average retail electricity rates
• Age of plants• Portfolio mix• Environmental regulations (even without GHG
discussion)
US Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2009
88
EPA actions will dramatically impact the future viability of coal generation
Ozone
PM2.5
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap
HAPs MACT proposed rule
Beginning CAIR Phase II Seasonal NOx Cap
Revised Ozone NAAQS
Begin CAIR Phase I Annual SO2 Cap
Beginning CAIR Phase II Annual SO2 & NOx Caps
Next PM-2.5 NAAQS Revision
Next Ozone NAAQS Revision
SO2 Primary NAAQS
SO2/NO2 Secondary NAAQS
NO2
Primary NAAQS
SO2/NO2
New PM-2.5 NAAQS Designations
CAMR & Delisting Rule vacated
Hg/HAPS
Final EPA Nonattainment Designations
PM-2.5SIPs due (‘06)
Proposed Transport Rule
HAPS MACT final rule expected
CAIR Vacated
HAPS MACT Compliance 3 yrs after final rule
CAIR Remanded
CAIR
Begin CAIR Phase I Annual NOx Cap
PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘97)
316(b) proposedrule expected
316(b) final ruleexpected
316(b) Compliance3-4 yrs after final rule
Effluent Guidelinesproposed ruleexpected
WaterEffluent GuidelinesFinal rule expected Effluent Guidelines
Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule
Begin Compliance Requirements under Final CCR Rule (ground water monitoring, double monitors, closure, dry ash conversion)
Ash
Proposed Rule for CCRs Management
Final Rule for CCRs Mgmt
Final Transport Rule Expected
Compliance with Transport Rule
CO2
CO2 Regulation
Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS
Source: EPA/EEI/AEP
Natural Gas
• EIA estimates are decrease in price then slow rise in natural gas price in residential sector through 2035
• Key uncertainties– How much will there be an increase in demand for
natural gas generation of electricity because of increased environmental regulation of coal fired power plants?
– Will the shale gas resource development be reduced by increased regulations?
SHALE GAS RESOURCES
Conclusion
• Price trends at the state level for electricity and natural gas are not easily predicted due to massive uncertainties.