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11. DECEMBER 2019 - PARIS Our Food in the Anthropocene
11. DECEMBER 2019 - PARIS
Our Food in the Anthropocene
The Lancet, October 2017
Commissioners
Johan RockstromWalter WillettTim LangDavid TilmanFrancesco BrancaJessica FanzoLindiwe SibandaRina AugustinaTara GarnettShenggen FanCorinna HawkesRami ZuraykAnna LarteyChris MurrayAshkan AfshinSonja VermeulenSrinath ReddySania NishtarAnn ThruppJuan DommarcoSunita Narain
Our food in the Anthropocene
Food has become the leading cause of human mortality
Foley et al. 2011
And food fails the environment
Science based targets create a shared ambition
Diet drives the global burden of disease
2500 calories diet constructed
based on the GBD risk
analysis.
Protective foods are those
that lower risk including
polyunsaturated fatty acids
(PUFA).
Harmful are foods that above
a minimum allowed cause
harm.
Total calories: 2500 Total calories: 2881
Global DietMinimum Risk Diet
Food availability for rich and poor nations
High-incomeMiddle-income Low-incomeDiet drives the global burden of disease
Food availability for rich and poor nations
High-income Middle-income Low-income
3744 Kcals
Potential savings of the low risk diet.
Disease
Actual Expenditure(2010 $US
million)
Predictedexpenditure(2010 $US
million)
Savings(2010 $US
million)
Percent saved
Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases
$134,712 $58,274 $76,438 -57%
Diabetes $116,327 $76,376 $39,952 -34%
Cancer $114,253 $101,743 $12,510 -11%
Musculoskeletal disorders $116,528 $115,916 $612 -1%
Following the GBD recommended diet would have reduced US health expenditure in 2006-2010 by $130 billion per year – a 6% reduction.
Adapted from Murray (EAT 2014)
Low Risk Diet
Food fails health
Steffen et al., 2016
Rockstrom et al., 2009
Today’s food systems drive environmental harm
The Sixth Extinction:An Unnatural History
Elizabeth Kolbert
“We are deciding, without quite meaning to, which evolutionary pathways will remain open and which will forever be closed. No other creature has ever managed this, and it will, unfortunately, be our most enduring legacy.”
Book Review by Al Gore, New York Times, Feb. 2014
Low Risk Land Use
Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure
20%
30%18%
22%
10%
Low Risk Land Use Current Estimates
Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure
20%
30%18%
22%
10% 8%15%
26%
18%
23%
Targets are distinct by Biomes
17%
70%
1%12%
Tundra Dry TropicalForest (24%)
Tropical GrasslandsMoist Tropical Forests
Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure
21%
27% 30%
22%
16%
43%24%
17%
Geographically specific water boundary
Nitrogen and Phosphorus Boundaries
Business as Usual
Planetary Boundary
Business as usual will not get us there
2° Climate
0 Biodiversity loss
<2600 km3 yr-1
Fresh Water Use
±2500 Kcal per capita
12% PUFA
<2% Harmful
## Tg P yr-1
## Tg N yr-1
>50 protectiveingredients
Land50-75%
Science based targets create a shared ambition
How can food get us to low risk diets and land?
Low Risk Diet
0%
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edu
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0%
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0% food comp. feed reduce 100% food comp. feed reduce
Science
Business Policy
Science based targets create a shared ambition
