OutlineIntroductionProblem DefinitionSystem Dynamics BasicsCDEEP : Current State of the artCDEEP ModelFeatures of a System Dynamics ModelConclusion & Future WorkReferences

IntroductionIndia produced 401,791 engineers in 2003-04

and in 2004-05, the number of engineering graduates increased to 464,743 [1].

But only 25 per cent of them are employable[1].

Main Reason : lack of well qualified teachersPossible Solution :

Make IIT education accessible through Distance Education Cost Effective Global Reach

Introduction continued …IITB has been running the distance education

program since last 10 years. Currently in the form of CDEEP to provide:

Good quality courses taught by IIT Bombay faculty

To everyone At any place

Both synchronous and asynchronous modesBut number of students benefiting from CDEEP

live courses has not increased as expected

Problem DefinitionTo model and analyse CDEEP system To find out :

If there is any bottleneck resourceWhat–If analysisIf any policy changes needed

using System Dynamics Why???

System Dynamics BasicsComputer simulation modeling for studying

and managing complex feedback systems, such as business, engineering, and social systems

Think in terms of cause-and-effect Focus on Feedback Loops

situation when output from an event will influence the same event in the future

StudyGrade

s

Parents’ Expectation

s

More More

More

SD Modeling: Standard approach [2] Identify the problemDevelop a dynamic hypothesisCreate a basic causal loop diagram Convert the causal diagram to a Stock flow

diagram Write the equationsEstimate the parameters and initial conditions.

using statistical methods, expert opinion, market research data or other relevant sources.

Simulate the model and analyze results

Causal Loop Diagramshows how one variable affects another. nodes represent variables and arrows (called

causal links) represent relationshipdifficult to infer the behavior of a system only

from its casual-loop representation

+ Feedback Loop

Node

Causal Link

timeP

op

ula

tio

n

Stock and Flow DiagramDistinguishes between different types of

variablesConsists of three different types of elements:

stocks, flows, and information

Stock

FlowInformatio

n

Stock and Flow Diagram cntd….SFD allows to represent relations among

variables in terms of equations.For Example

It becomes infeasible to solve as stocks and flows increase

Use computer simulatorsMany simulators are available, (none is open

source ) We used Vensim PLE by Ventana Systems, Inc. [4] Simulation result is time-history of variables

in terms of Graph/Table

Population = Initial(Population)+ (birth-death)dt

CDEEP : Current State of the artDistance Education through

Live Webcast and Satellite Transmission Dynamic System with Feedback Loops

4 studios for live webcast (only 1 for satellite )

Live Webcast through Internet at 100 kbps for each connection

Not many students participating in this program

Our Work Modeled Webcast and EDUSAT parts

independently Applied iterative approach to develop the

model Variable Units Initial value/ assumption

Total number of Students

Students 20

Number of courses courses 20

Quality of video dimensionless

between 0 and 1

Total available bandwidth

Kbps 8 Mbps

Bandwidth per connection

Kbps/student

Ideally 100 kbps

Student satisfaction dimensionless

between 0 and 1

Server Performance dimensionless

between 0 and 1

Initial Webcast Model

Causal Loop Diagram

Initial Webcast Model

Stock and Flow Diagram

joining new students

Students Leaving

Simulation Results

Consistently 1

Equilibrium

Bottleneck

ObservationsNumber of Students becomes constant (=200

student) after 24 monthsIncreasing number of courses doesn’t helpBandwidth is the only bottleneck Server is always underutilizedLimitations

MHRD grants can be used to bring in more resources, e.g. Bandwidth

Student feedback does matterMarketing issues can not be ignored

Modified Webcast Model

Causal Loop Diagram

Modified Webcast Model

Stock and Flow Diagram

Becomes 1 Gbps after 24

months

From 4 to 6

Simulation ResultsOne more here

Server Overload

edHuge increment due to increase in

BW

ObservationsGrants can be spent for different resources

Bandwidth increase much neededIf bandwidth is increased, server will become

overloaded after 3 semestersNo. of courses limited by no. of studiosMarketing issues are very important

Feedback from students will influence no. of courses

Similarity of syllabus with other universities affects inflow

EDUSAT ModelTransmission through EDUSAT satelliteDedicated 1 Mbps uplink and 500 kbps

downlinkStudent Interactive Terminals (SIT) for

receptionCurrently 72 Remote Centre (RCs), mostly

engineering colleges RC coordinators and Instructors to ensure

proper functioning

EDUSAT Model

Causal Loop Diagram

EDUSAT Model

Stock and Flow Diagram

ResultsEffect of relevance of courses

Results

Optimal: 20 courses and 0.7 marketing will reach 373

Number of courses vs. number of students Marketing vs. number of studentsafter 18 months

ResultsEffect of Distribution of Incoming Grants Optimal mix : 20 courses and 0.7 on

marketingGrants

Enter Here

Observations Attention needs to be paid on publicizing

CDEEP programs and encouraging student to join CDEEP

Effect of grants visible after 12 monthsOptimal mix : 20 courses and 0.7 marketing

efforts

SDModel : FeaturesCurrent simulators are all proprietary

applicationsvery limited collaboration among them

No truly successful open source System Dynamics model builder currently available.

Studied SystemDynamics Simulator[8] Huge code without proper documentation

Prepared a higher level flowchart of a model and its constituent model components. Referred an initiative SD Info Model[9]

System Dynamics Model

Dark line shows

containment

Dotted line shows

information flow

ConclusionSystem Dynamics proved to be an important

tool for modeling CDEEP system Models were verified by CDEEP staffResults obtained may help in improvement of

existing system

Future workRecommendations made may be validated by

implementing them over the actual CDEEP system

PublicationPoster titled “Using System Dynamics to

Model and Analyze a Distance Education Program” accepted in International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies and Development (ICTD) 2010.

References[1] McKansey Global Institute. Report on Emerging global labour

market,2005.

[2] John Morecroft, Strategic modeling and business dynamics: a feedback systems approach , Page no. 106

[3] Deepak B. Phatak Kannan M. Moudgalya and R. K. Shevgaonkar. Engineering education for everyone: A distance education experiment at IIT Bombay. Frontiers in Education, 2008.

[4] System Dynamics Modelling, A Practical Approach, Chapman & Hall, 1996.

[5] http://www.cdeep.iitb.ac.in/

[6] http://www.vensim.com/

[7] http://www.public.asu.edu/~kirkwood/sysdyn

[8] http://sourceforge.net/projects/system-dynamics

[9] http://sourceforge.net/projects/sdinfomodel

Thank You

Appendix1 : EDUSAT ModelVariable Equation/Initial Value

Number of students INTEG (inflow-outflow, 100)

Inflow DELAY FIXED( (Average student satisfaction *Number of RCs*Number of transmitted courses*Quality of Transmitted Video) /15, 2, 50 )

Outflow (1-Average student satisfaction)*(1-Quality of Transmitted Video)*Number of students/10

Marketing about CDEEP programme

IF THEN ELSE(Grants from MHRD>0, 0.7 , 0.2 )

Relevance with other university syllabus

0.8

Quality of Transmitted Video

Equipment Condition at RC

Appendix2 : EDUSAT ModelVariable Equation/Initial Value

Number of RCs DELAY FIXED( RC Instructor's Motivation*Marketing about CDEEP programme*600,12, 25 )

Equipment Condition at RC

IF THEN ELSE(Support staff for Equipment Maintenance>10, 0.8, 0.5 )

Incentives for RC Instructor

0.5

Grants from MHRD STEP(1e+08, 24 )

Number of transmitted courses

IF THEN ELSE(Number of studios*11>10+Feedback from students/5+2*RC Instructor's Motivation, INTEGER (Number of studios*6+Feedback from students/10) , Number of studios *11)