Southern Greenland Heritage Foundation ● 23 July 2009 Wendell Cox
Outline
• Economic Sustainability
• Regulating People (Behavioral: Compact City Policies)( p y )
• Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions(Green Technology)(Green Technology)
• Opportunities & Possibilities
C l i Th P t ti l f S• Conclusion: The Potential for Success
Mendoza River, Argentina
Starting Pointsg
• Assumption: National GHG emission reduction Assumption: National GHG emission reduction objectives will be adopted.
• Principle: Policies must be effective or the objectives will not be met
• Issue: Mandatory compact city policies v. green t h ltechnology
Colorado Rockies
The Thesis….The Thesis….IT’S THE ECONOMYIT’S THE ECONOMY
• GHG emissions objectives can only be met by a vibrant
IT S THE ECONOMY…IT S THE ECONOMY…
economy.
• Regulating people (compact city policies)• Regulating people (compact city policies)– Focus: Changing behavior (indirect)– Little potential to reduce GHG emissions– Would do so at exorbitant cost – Could seriously damage the economy & increase poverty.
• Regulating GHG emissions (green technology) – Focus: Reducing GHG intensity of how we live (direct)
i l i ll d i bj i– Potential to meet virtually any GHG reduction objectives– Much lower cost to the economy.
ECONOMICMISUSTAINABILITY
ECONOMIC GROWTH & POVERTY ALLEVIATION
ChicagoEconomic sustainability: Essential
to environmental sustainability
Economics: A History of PovertyEconomics: A History of PovertyCANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTEDCANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTEDCANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTEDCANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED
6Dhaka
Economies Vary by Extent of PovertyEconomies Vary by Extent of PovertyTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONSTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS
$35 000
$40,000 GDP/Capita 2000$United States
THERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONSTHERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS
$30,000
$35,000
Australia
Rio de Janeiro: Rich & Poor
$20 000
$25,000W. Europe
Japan
$15,000
$20,000
Argentina
$5,000
$10,000
Africa
Latin America
Asia
$0
$5,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Africa
Personal Mobility: Increases Economic GrowthPersonal Mobility: Increases Economic Growth
• Minimizing Travel Time & Economic Growth
ACCESS TO LARGER NUMBER OF JOBSACCESS TO LARGER NUMBER OF JOBS
• Minimizing Travel Time & Economic Growth– Congestion costs– ProductivityProductivity
• Research: More Job Access in Fixed Time Means • Research: More Job Access in Fixed Time Means Better Urban Economic Performance– Prud’homme et al (U. of Paris)( )– Cervero (U. of California)– Hartgen (U. of North Carolina)
Lisbon
Personal Mobility Alleviates PovertyPersonal Mobility Alleviates Poverty
F l i t l it id t i B t
HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERSHOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS
• Few low income central city residents in Boston could reach high growth suburban employment areas within one hour by transit. y
–Federal Transit Administration
• Given the strong connection between cars and employment outcomes, auto ownership programs may be one of the more promisingprograms may be one of the more promising options and one worthy of expansion
• –Blumenberg & Waller (Brookings Institution)
Houston
Personal Mobility Alleviates PovertyPersonal Mobility Alleviates Poverty
• In most cases, the shortest distance between a
HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERSHOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS
poor person and a job is along a line driven in a car – Waller & Hughes (Progressive Policy Institute)
• If automobiles were available to all African A i h h ld th b t American households, the gap between non-Hispanic-white and African-American unemployment would be reduced by nearly one-unemployment would be reduced by nearly one-half.
– Raphael & Stoll (UC-Berkeley)Raphael & Stoll (UC Berkeley)
Portland
US Metropolitan GDP (PPP) DominatesWORLD METROPOLITAN AREAS >1 000 000 (2005)
Salt Lake CityMilwaukeeNashville
Columbus (Ohio)
WORLD METROPOLITAN AREAS >1,000,000 (2005)
Adapted from
PhiladelphiaSan Diego
AtlantaLos Angeles
ChicagoSalt Lake City Adapted from
OECD & BEA data
Minneapolis St PaulHamburg
Dallas‐Fort WorthHouston
IndianapolisPhiladelphia
USA:
SeattleNew YorkStockholmHartfordDenver
Minneapolis‐St. Paul40 of
Top 50
Ch l ttSan FranciscoWashington
BrusselsBostonSeattle
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
San JoseCharlotte
US Work Trip Travel Time ShorterCOMPARED TO INTERNATIONAL URBAN AREAS
45
50
COMPARED TO INTERNATIONAL URBAN AREAS
35
40
45
Min
utes
Hong Kong
25
30
35
el T
ime
in M Hong Kong
15
20
e W
ay T
rave
5
10One
0
Hong Kong
New York Los Angeles
Sydney Dallas-Fort Worth
Houston Phoenix Atlanta
Suburban WorldSuburban WorldNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH SUBURBAN FROM 1960SUBURBAN FROM 1960NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH SUBURBAN FROM 1960SUBURBAN FROM 1960
114%
97% 94% 93% 92%
e
ralia
da d St
ates
ern
Euro
pe
n
Aus
tr
Can
ad
Uni
te
Wes
t e
Japa
n
Moscow Suburbs
Cost Effectiveness is CrucialCost Effectiveness is CrucialUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TONUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TONUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TONUN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TON
Shenyang, China
Market McKinseyAbove $50 is wastefulDetracts from efforts to reduce GHGsLess than
$15Average
$17
Detracts from efforts to reduce GHGs& unnecessarily reduces
employment & economic growth
Regulating Peopleg g pMANDATORY COMPACT CITY POLICY
Changing how we live and workSeoul
Study: Multi-Unit GHG Emissions HigherINCLUDING COMMON ENERGY EMISSIONS
6
Multi-UnitSingle Family
Annual GHG Tons/Capita
INCLUDING COMMON ENERGY EMISSIONS
No US dataHUGE RESEARCH GAP
4
5Single Family
Sydney
3
4 Sydney
2
1Source: Energy Australia Study
0
9+ Floors 4-8 Floors <4 Floors Townhouse Detached
Suburban Transit Access: Slow & LimitedSuburban Transit Access: Slow & LimitedEXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES CASE OF PARISEXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES CASE OF PARISEXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES: CASE OF PARISEXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES: CASE OF PARIS
Paris
Jobsibl 16%
59%
Accessible in 1 Hour Not
Accessible Not84%
NotAccessible
AutoTransit
41%
JobsAccessible
41%
Metropolitan Auto Competitiveness RequiredMetropolitan Auto Competitiveness RequiredCANNOT BE ACHIEVED AT AFFORDABLE COSTCANNOT BE ACHIEVED AT AFFORDABLE COSTCANNOT BE ACHIEVED AT AFFORDABLE COSTCANNOT BE ACHIEVED AT AFFORDABLE COST
Example: Skeletal automated metro Imposed on PortlandWould cost more than all personal income annually
Transit Work TripsTransit Work TripsNearly Double Cars
Behavioral Strategies Fall ShortDRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
40%
50%
DRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
Based on synthesisin Caroline Rodier
10%
20%
30%in Caroline Rodier
TRB Paper
-10%
0%
10%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-40%
-30%
-20%
70%
-60%
-50%50% Glidepath80% GlidepathDriving
-90%
-80%
-70% DrivingTransitLand Use & Transit
Transit/Land Use Strategies ExpensiveCOST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCO
$900
Annual Cost/GHG Tonne Removed
COST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCO
$
$700
$800Annual Cost/GHG Tonne Removed
Source: 2035 Plan
$400
$500
$600
$200
$300
$400
$0
$100
$200
$0
IPCC: Maximum Freeway Performance
Bus/Land Use/Pricing
Rail/Land Use/Pricing
House Price Escalation: The Big ProblemECONOMICS: SCARCITY INCREASES PRICESECONOMICS: SCARCITY INCREASES PRICES
H i b bblHousing bubble where restricted land use not where lessuse, not where less restrictions
No bubble where more suburbanization
Paul Krugman
more suburbanization
Paul Krugman, Princeton University
2008 Nobel Prize in Economics
The Difference is Land & Regulation1 600 SQUARE FOOT STARTER HOUSE: 2006
$400,000
Land & Regulatory
1,600 SQUARE FOOT STARTER HOUSE: 2006
$300,000
$350,000Land & Regulatory
Construction
$200 000
$250,000UK Research:
500x difference in land priceAdjacent parcels with & without
l i i i
$150,000
$200,000 lanning permission
$50,000
$100,000
$0
Responsive Markets Prescriptive Markets
Land Rationing is the IssueDESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
h ff d bili f h i... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function f j t thi th t tof just one thing, the extent
to which governments place artificial restrictions on theartificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.
Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
1988 20021988-2002Introduction to
4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
Yet Smart Growth Advocates AgreeONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IT INCREASES COSTS
Prescriptive Planning (Smart Growth) Policies:Including Potential for Increasing Housing Prices
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IT INCREASES COSTS
Including Potential for Increasing Housing Prices
Strategy
Potential to Increase Housing PricesStrategy Prices
1 Regional Urban Growth Boundaries YES
2 Local Urban Growth Boundaries YES
3 Regional Urban Service Districts YESg
4 Local Urban Service Districts YES
5 Large-Lot Zoning in Rural Areas YES
6 High Development Fees & Exactions YES
7 Restrictions on Physically Developable Land YES
8 State Aid Contingent on Local Growth Zones
9 Transferable Development Rights
10 Adequacy of Facilities Requirements
From Table 15.4, “Costs of Sprawl---2000”
Median House Price IncreasesRELATIVE TO HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
6
2007 Peak
RELATIVE TO HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
5
2007 Peak
1980‐2000 Average
3
4
2
3
1
Median Multiple:Median House Price/
Median Household Income
0
Responsive Markets Prescriptive Markets
Texas & California House Prices1980-2009: MEDIAN MULTIPLE
9.0
10.01980 2009: MEDIAN MULTIPLE
7.0
8.0 Volatility (Glaeser& Gyourko
5.0
6.0
3.0
4.0TEXAS
1.0
2.0Fischell (Dartmouth):
House prices similar in CaliforniaI 1970 t t f ti
0.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
In 1970 to rest of nation.Attributes increase to regulation.
Minority Home Ownership TrailsGAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH
80%
GAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH
60%
70%
40%
50%
30%
40%
10%
20%
0%
White-Non-Hispanic African American Hispanic
COMPACT CITYCOMPACT CITYPROJECTIONS:PROJECTIONS:PROJECTIONS:PROJECTIONS:
PROBABLYPROBABLYOPTIMISTICOPTIMISTICOPTIMISTICOPTIMISTIC
Most New US $ Goes to Excess Costs1982 2006: INFLATION ADJUSTED1982-2006: INFLATION ADJUSTED
New Ridership
Excess Above Inflation
33%
67%Calculated
fromfromNTDB dataTokyo Rail Transit Map
Density Increases CongestionTRAFFIC INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS
11,373Vehicle Hours/Square Mile
B P l tiBy PopulationDensity
H K
6,187
Hong Kong
4,183
6,187
1 5402,340
1,540
Under 3,000 3,000-4,999 5,000-9,999 10,000-19,999 20,000 & Over
Reduce VMT: Reduces GHG LessCITY CYCLE V MORE CONGESTED JAPAN URBAN CYCLE
0%
Average Speed Fuel Economy (MPG)
CITY CYCLE V. MORE CONGESTED JAPAN URBAN CYCLE
‐5%
Average Speed Fuel Economy (MPG)
k City Cycle
‐10%
to New
York
‐15%
m City Cycle t
New York City Cycle(More congested)May reduce GHGs
‐20%
Chan
ge From
Lower speed & congestion
May reduce GHGs only 25%
‐25%
C
are the problemHUGE RESEARCH GAP
The Modeling RecordThe Modeling RecordThe Modeling RecordThe Modeling RecordHUGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE LIKELYHUGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE LIKELY
Regulating hGreenhouse
Gas EmissionsGas EmissionsGREEN TECHNOLOGY
ChicagoReducing GHG emissions from how we live and work
Zero Emission House: Japan2 100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED2,100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/nBackIssue20080617_01.html
New 35.5 MPG Standard Reduces GHGsDRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
40%
50%
DRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
Land Use & Transit
10%
20%
30% Impact Equal to2 MPG Improvement
In Fuel Economy
-10%
0%
10%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-40%
-30%
-20%
70%
-60%
-50% 50% Glidepath80% GlidepathDrivingT it President:
-90%
-80%
-70% TransitLand Use & Transit35.5 MPG
President:Will pay for
itself
Better Technology is Already HereBetter Technology is Already HereMOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDSMOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDSMOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDSMOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDS
Potential: Existing (Hybrid) TechnologyDRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
40%
50%
DRIVING & GHG REDUCTION
10%
20%
30%
-10%
0%
10%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-40%
-30%
-20%
50% Glidepath
80% Glid th
70%
-60%
-50%80% Glidepath
Driving
Transit
Land Use & Transit
-90%
-80%
-70%35.5 MPG
Hybrid
Driving Projections May be HighRATE OF INCREASE HAS DECLINED
50%
RATE OF INCREASE HAS DECLINED
Why?
40%
Why?Nearing
Car Saturation:Minorities
30%
AASHTO L C
WomenPisarski
20%AASHTO Low Case
EIA Base Case
Recent rates less even10%
Recent rates less evenwith gas price increases
Puentes & Tomer(Brookings)
0%
2007
2010
2020
2030
European Parliament MPG RequirementEuropean Parliament MPG Requirement58 MPG BY 202058 MPG BY 202058 MPG BY 202058 MPG BY 2020
Paris: 12 Lane Freeway
OPPORTUNITIES &PP R I I S &POSSIBILITIES
Shenzhen, China
Potential: Volkswagen: 235 MPG CarPotential: Volkswagen: 235 MPG CarLIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010LIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010LIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010LIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010
Obama 150 MPG car by 2015car by 2015
Compressed Air Car: Tata to BuildCompressed Air Car: Tata to BuildZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIALZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIALPictures/compressed air carZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIALZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIAL
Many OpportunitiesEVIDENCES OF HUMAN INGENUITY
• Producing gasoline from CO2– http://www nytimes com/2008/02/19/science/19carb html?ref=
EVIDENCES OF HUMAN INGENUITY
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/science/19carb.html?refscience
• Alternative Fuels Production by Yeast– http://www newscientist com/article/dn16989‐yeast‐and‐http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16989 yeast and
bacterium‐turned‐into‐gasoline‐factory.html
• Cellulosic ethanol• Plug in vehicles• Plug in vehicles• Green Car Sharing (Paris, London & Austin)
– http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article‐23656098‐details/Boris+plans+electric+car+hire+scheme+for+London/articldetails/Boris+plans+electric+car+hire+scheme+for+London/article.do
– http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS155367+26‐Mar‐2009+PRN20090326
• Telecommuting– http://www.itif.org/files/Telecommuting.pdf Bosporus-Black Sea
Manila No one wants to go backto go back
CONCLUSION:THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUCCESS
Dimensions of SustainabilityPOTENTIAL TO MEET OBJECTIVESPOTENTIAL TO MEET OBJECTIVES
DIMENSION OF SUSTAINABILITY REGULATINGPEOPLE
REGULATINGGREENHOUSE
(MANDATORYCOMPACT CITY
POLICIES)
GAS EMISSIONS(GREEN
TECHNOLOGY)
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY NO YESENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITYDoes the strategy have the potential to achieve the GHG emission reduction objective?
NO YES
FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY NO YESCan the strategy reduce GHG emissions at a cost within the $50 ceiling per ton?
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITYIs the strategy without serious potential for reducing
NO YESIs the strategy without serious potential for reducing economic growth or increasing poverty?
POLITICAL SUSTAINABILITYIs the strategy without serious potential for public
j ti i ?
NO YES
rejection or evasion?
OVERALL EVALUATION NO YES
ConclusionTHE POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESSTHE POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESS
• Behavioral strategies (indirect) likely to failg ( ) y– Not environmentally sustainable
– Intrusiveness could be devastating to geconomic growth and increase poverty
– Not economically sustainabley
– Not necessary
• Green Technology: (direct) has theGreen Technology: (direct) has the potential to succeed– Advantage: Allow economic growth & job– Advantage: Allow economic growth & job
creation while meeting GHG objectives
AppendixRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCESRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCES
• GHG Commentaries
– http://www newgeography com/http://www.newgeography.com/
– GHG Emissions and Reality: Residential Emissions
– Enough "Cowboy“ GHG Reduction PoliciesEnough Cowboy GHG Reduction Policies
– Regulating People or Regulating Greenhouse Gases?
– A Rational Approach to GHG Emissions ReductionA Rational Approach to GHG Emissions Reduction
– GHG Reduction Policy: From Rhetoric to Reason
AppendixRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCESRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCES
I i l H i Aff d bili S• International Housing Affordability Survey
– 6 nations, 265 markets
– 5th annual edition
– http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
AppendixRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCESRELEVENT DEMOGRAPHIA RESOURCES
• World Urban Areas
Population land area density for all urban areas– Population, land area, density for all urban areas over 500,000
– 5th annual edition– 5 annual edition
– http://www.demographia.com/db‐worldua.pdf
