Outlook for World Cotton Supply and Use

DGs Consultative Framework Mechanism on Cotton

Geneva

29 June 2012

International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)

Terry Townsend

Cotlook A Index

0

50

100

150

200

2502010/11

U.S. cents/lb

2011/12

2009/10

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 05/06 11/12

Season highest value

Season lowest value

Difference with respect to season average

Price Volatility by Season: Cotlook A Index

2011/12: 1 August – 17 April

WORLD FIBER PRODUCTION

0

10

20

30

40

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cotton

Polyester

Million tons

Fiber Prices

40

80

120

160

200

240

Aug-06 Apr-08 Dec-09 Aug-11

U.S. Cents per Pound

Cotlook A Index

China Polyester

15

20

25

30

02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13

World Cotton Production & Mill UseMillion tons

Production

Mill Use

Production surplus

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

02468

10121416

02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13

World Ending Stocks

Million tons Stocks-to-Use Ratio in the World-less-China

Price Ratios at Planting Time – NorthHemisphere

Cotton relative to Competing Crops

0

5

10

15

20

Maize Soybeans Wheat Rice

07 08 09 10 11 12

Price ratio

6.45.4

3.7

2.11.6

1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6

0

2

4

6

82010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Cotton Production

Million Tons

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12

Share Production Million Tons

Cotton Production in Africa

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

Francophone Africa

Eastern & Southern Africa

North Africa

Africa: Cotton Production by RegionMillion tons

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

200

400

600

800

95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12

Yields Area Million Ha

Francophone Africa:Cotton Area and Yields

Kg/ha

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12

World

Francophone Africa

Cotton YieldsKg/ha

0.71.9 1.4

4.22.3 2.5

1.52.4 2.6

5.0

2.8

5.8

5.3 5.9

5.4

5.9 6.0

5.1

5.5 5.1

4.1

4.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13

China World less China

World Cotton Imports

Million tons

Purchases of Cotton for the Chinese National Reserve

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

28-Sep-11 27-Nov-11 26-Jan-12 26-Mar-12

PurchasesCumulative

Thousand Tons Million Tons

5.0

0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4

2.8

0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

China Bangladesh Turkey Indonesia Vietnam

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Cotton ImportsMillion tons

Share of Global Cotton Imports in 2011/12

55% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%

2.5

1.9

1.0 1.0

0.6 0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

US India Australia Brazil Franc. Africa Uzbek.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Cotton ExportsMillion tons

Share of Global Cotton Exports in 2011/12

28% 21% 11% 11% 6% 6%

COTLOOK A INDEX

020406080

100120140160180

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US cents per pound

www.ICAC.org

International Cotton AdvisoryCommittee