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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook December 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
December 2010
Prepared by:Economic Services
National Cotton Council
U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook
December 2010
Prepared by:Economic Services
National Cotton Council
Macroeconomic Environment
U.S. Real GDP Growth
Percent
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 09 10
Dollars per Barrel
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160
Ja
n-0
4M
ar-
04
Ju
n-0
4S
ep
-04
De
c-0
4F
eb
-05
Ma
y-0
5A
ug
-05
No
v-0
5J
an
-06
Ap
r-0
6J
ul-
06
Oc
t-0
6J
an
-07
Ap
r-0
7J
un
-07
Se
p-0
7D
ec
-07
Ma
r-0
8J
un
-08
Se
p-0
8D
ec
-08
Fe
b-0
9M
ay
-09
Au
g-0
9N
ov
-09
Fe
b-1
0M
ay
-10
Au
g-1
0
U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
Cents per Gallon
80110140170200230260290320350380410440
Jan
-04
Mar
-04
Jun
-04
Sep
-04
Dec
-04
Mar
-05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
No
v-05
Feb
-06
May
-06
Au
g-0
6N
ov-
06F
eb-0
7M
ay-0
7A
ug
-07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
Jul-
08O
ct-0
8Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09Ju
n-0
9S
ep-0
9D
ec-0
9M
ar-1
0Ju
n-1
0S
ep-1
0
U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Civilian Unemployment Rate
$ Billions
-1,800
-1,400
-1,000
-600
-200
200
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
10-Jan 10-Aug
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)
$ Billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
$ Billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Upland Cotton Other Commodity Programs Conservation
CBO Ag Baseline Spending
Percent
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16W
orld US
Indi
a
Chi
na
2008 2009 2010 2011
Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
Jul
Jan
-05
Jul
Jan
-06
Jul
Jan
-07
Jul
Jan
-08
July
Jan
-09
July
Jan
-10
July
Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200
Jan
-95
Jul
Jan
-96
Jul
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
Jul
Jan
-05
Jul
Jan
-06
Jul
Jan
-07
Jul
Jan
-08
Jul
Jan
-09
Jul
Jan
-10
Jul
Crops Livestock
Ag Prices Received Index
$ Billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09p 10f
Market Government Emergency
U.S. Net Farm Income
U.S. Cotton Supply
30405060708090
100110120130140150160
Au
g
Se
p
No
v
Jan
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Dec-09 Dec -10
30405060708090
100110120130140150160
Au
g
Se
p
No
v
Jan
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Dec-09 Dec -10
December Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
725
775
825
Au
g
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Dec-09 Dec-10
December Corn FuturesCents per Bushel
580
680
780
880
980
1080
1180
1280
1380
1480
1580
1680
Au
g
Se
p
No
v
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Se
p
No
v
Nov-09 Nov-10
November Soybean FuturesCents per Bushel
SoutheastSoutheast 1,891 1,891 2,602 2,602 37.637.6Mid-SouthMid-South 1,627 1,627 1,930 1,930 18.6 18.6 SouthwestSouthwest 5,243 5,243 5,931 5,931 13.1 13.1 WestWest 247 247 366 366 48.1 48.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 9,0089,008 10,82910,829 20.220.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 141 141 209 209 47.8 47.8
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 9,150 9,150 11,038 11,038 20.620.6
SoutheastSoutheast 1,891 1,891 2,602 2,602 37.637.6Mid-SouthMid-South 1,627 1,627 1,930 1,930 18.6 18.6 SouthwestSouthwest 5,243 5,243 5,931 5,931 13.1 13.1 WestWest 247 247 366 366 48.1 48.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 9,0089,008 10,82910,829 20.220.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 141 141 209 209 47.8 47.8
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 9,150 9,150 11,038 11,038 20.620.6
2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings
20092009 20102010 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
20092009 20102010 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
Thousand AcresThousand AcresThousand AcresThousand Acres
*USDA June Acreage Report - Revised *USDA June Acreage Report - Revised
SoutheastSoutheast 765 765 1,053 1,053 37.637.6Mid-SouthMid-South 658 658 781 781 18.6 18.6 SouthwestSouthwest 2,122 2,122 2,400 2,400 13.1 13.1 WestWest 100 100 148 148 48.1 48.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 3,6453,645 4,3824,382 20.220.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 57 57 85 85 47.8 47.8
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 3,703 3,703 4,467 4,467 20.620.6
SoutheastSoutheast 765 765 1,053 1,053 37.637.6Mid-SouthMid-South 658 658 781 781 18.6 18.6 SouthwestSouthwest 2,122 2,122 2,400 2,400 13.1 13.1 WestWest 100 100 148 148 48.1 48.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 3,6453,645 4,3824,382 20.220.2
ALL ELSALL ELS 57 57 85 85 47.8 47.8
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 3,703 3,703 4,467 4,467 20.620.6
2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings
20092009 20102010 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
20092009 20102010 %% Actual Actual Estimated* Estimated* ChangeChange
Thousand HectaresThousand HectaresThousand HectaresThousand Hectares
*USDA June Acreage Report - Revised*USDA June Acreage Report - Revised
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
U.S. Cotton Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Beg Stocks Imports Production
U.S. Cotton Supply
U.S. Cotton Demand
Fiber Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10f
Mill
ion
Bal
es
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
ns
Cotton Other
Net Domestic Fiber Consumption
Percent
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption
2009
2010
Fiber Equivalents
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Retail Imported
Components of Retail Cotton Consumption
Fiber Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
U.S. Cotton Textile Imports
U.S. Cotton Content in Textile ImportsFiber Equivalents
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Mill
ion
Bal
es
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
ns
CBINAFTAROWNon-U.S. Cotton
U.S. Trade With Mexico
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Imports Exports
U.S. Trade with CBI
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Imports Exports
U.S. Imports from China
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Million 480 Lb Bale Equivalents
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
U.S. Cotton Mill Use
2010
2009
U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Exports Mill Use Production
U.S. Cotton Production & Use
The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
-2.2
-0.2
1.8
3.8
5.8
7.8
9.8
11.8
13.8
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
China Cotton Supply & Use
World Cotton Production
0
25
50
75
100
125
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10f
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Cotton Polyester
World Fiber Mill Use
*PCI
Cents per Pound
30405060708090
100110120130140150160170
Ja
n-0
4
Ap
r-0
4
Au
g-0
4
No
v-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ju
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ap
r-0
6
Au
g-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ju
n-0
7
Oc
t-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Au
g-0
8
No
v-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ju
n-0
9
Oc
t-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Au
g-1
0
De
c-1
0
"A" FE Index
Asian Polyester Staple
Fiber Prices
World Cotton Mill Use
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Bal
es
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
ns
Stocks Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & Use
U.S. Cotton Exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
1
2
3
4
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
World Cotton Ending Stocks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p
Mill
ion
Ba
les
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
U.S. ROW China
60
434139
4444
52
56
4442
585755
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Percent
Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales
Beginning StocksBeginning Stocks 6.346.34 2.952.95ProductionProduction 12.1912.19 18.2718.27ImportsImports 0.000.00 0.010.01
Total SupplyTotal Supply 18.5318.53 21.2221.22
Mill UseMill Use 3.463.46 3.553.55ExportsExports 12.0412.04 15.7515.75
Total OfftakeTotal Offtake 15.5015.50 19.3019.30
Ending StocksEnding Stocks 2.952.95 1.901.90Stocks-to-Use RatioStocks-to-Use Ratio 19.0%19.0% 9.8%9.8%
2009/10e 2010/11p
U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
Beginning StocksBeginning Stocks 1.381.38 0.640.64ProductionProduction 2.662.66 3.983.98ImportsImports 0.000.00 0.000.00
Total SupplyTotal Supply 4.044.04 4.624.62
Mill UseMill Use 0.750.75 0.770.77ExportsExports 2.622.62 3.433.43
Total OfftakeTotal Offtake 3.383.38 4.204.20
Ending StocksEnding Stocks 0.640.64 0.410.41Stocks-to-Use RatioStocks-to-Use Ratio 19.0%19.0% 9.8%9.8%
2009/10e 2010/11p
Beginning Stocks 60.52 44.00Production 101.54 115.53Imports 35.89 38.66
Mill Use 118.38 116.25Exports 35.60 38.68
Ending Stocks 44.00 43.39Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.2% 37.3%
Beginning Stocks 60.52 44.00Production 101.54 115.53Imports 35.89 38.66
Mill Use 118.38 116.25Exports 35.60 38.68
Ending Stocks 44.00 43.39Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.2% 37.3%
World Supply and DemandMillion Bales
2009/10e 2010/11p
Beginning Stocks 13.19 9.59Production 22.12 25.17Imports 7.82 8.42
Mill Use 25.79 25.33Exports 7.76 8.43
Ending Stocks 9.59 9.45Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.2% 37.3%
Beginning Stocks 13.19 9.59Production 22.12 25.17Imports 7.82 8.42
Mill Use 25.79 25.33Exports 7.76 8.43
Ending Stocks 9.59 9.45Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.2% 37.3%
World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons
2009/10e 2010/11p
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CottonseedCottonseed
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers
