Outlook Forecast Mobile Wireless Communications 12-01-09

8/14/2019 Outlook Forecast Mobile Wireless Communications 12-01-09

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2010 Outlook & Forecast

Mobile & Wireless Communications

J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D.

VP & Chief Analyst

Mobile & Wireless CommunicationsNorth America

Analyst Briefing

December 1, 2009


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Wireless Subscribers:Past, Present & Forecast


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Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Market

Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World Mobile Subscribers 1960.0 2281.8 2591.3 2824.5 3022.3 3203.6 3363.8 3531.0 3685.6

World Population 6575 6625 6675 6726 6778 6831 6885 6940 6997

World Mobile Penetration 30% 34% 39% 42% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53%


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US Wireless Subscriber Market

Description 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Population 291.0 294.0 297.0 300.0 303.0 306.0 309.0 312.0 315.0 318.0 321.0

U.S. Mobile Subscribers 182.1 208 233 249 267 281 295 307 316 325 333

U.S. Mobile Penetration 63% 71% 78% 83% 88% 92% 95% 98% 100% 102% 104%


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Wireless Handset Sales:Past, Present & Forecast


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Global Mobile Device Forecast

Source: Frost & Sullivan


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Global Smartphone Device Forecast



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Global Smartphone Device Market Share

Global Smartphone Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone Market Share Forecast (2014)

Chart 2.3: Global Smartphone Market Share Forecasts


Nokia will see increased competition, but will remain the global leader.With devices like the iPhone from Apple, the Magic and Dream from HTC, and the Tour from Research inMotion, and upcoming smartphones from the likes of Samsung and LG, Nokia will continue to see itsdominant foothold on the smartphone market shrink from 44% today, to around 36% in 2014. RIM should

continue to hold around 17% of the market, while companies like Apple, HTC, Samsung, and LG shouldaccount for a large part of the bite out of Nokias share of the market.


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Global Smartphone Operating System Forecast



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Global Smartphone Operating System Market Share

Global Smartphone OS Market Share (2008) Global Smartphone OS Market Share Forecast (2014)

Chart 2.5: Global Smartphone OS Market Share Forecasts


Android will make the biggest jump in market share by 2014.Due to the low cost and availability of the Android OS, it is expected to grow from approximately 1% of theglobal smartphone market to the third largest share 12% by 2014. This could become the fastest growthfor a mobile product in the history of the mobile industry.

Apple will remain strong, but is limited by its proprietary model.Although the iPhone is the most popular product on the market, ultimately, Apple will be limited by havingfewer models available. This could change if Apple decides to release multiple iPhone product linessimilar to its business model with the iPod product.


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North American Smartphone Operating System Forecast


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North American Mobile Operating System Market Share

North American Mobile Operating System Market

Share (2008)

North American Mobile Operating System Market

Share Forecast (2014)

Chart 3.2: North America Smartphone OS Market Share Forecasts

RIM maintains the dominant smartphone OS in North America, but their market sharewill be significantly reduced by 2014.With 58% of the North American smartphone market share, RIM hasnt had a lot of competition from itscompetitors. Although Apple has been successful with its iPhone product, it hasnt been able to gain on

the breadth of RIMs blackberry product line. Windows Mobile has been limited by licensing fees andunderperformance. However, with the introduction of Android and Palm WebOS, competition andproducts will be coming from all angles. This competition should provide the variety in the North Americansmartphone market that will really fuel the growth of the market as a whole.


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Mobile & Wireless:2010 Outlook


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2010 Mobile & Wireless Trends

App Stores explode

o Device manufacturers, carriers, 3rd parties

o Make vs. buy

o Next new thing in Apps: Mobile Application Generators

eBooks finally enter mainstream

o Kindle followed by Nook followed by Plastic Logic followed by Apple

o Barnes & Noble

Mobile ad exchanges

o Google buys AdMob

o Exchanges serve agencies which serve brands

Mac increases market share

o Outlook for the Mac & conversion tools will make a difference

o Windows 7 is good (finally) but Windows Mobile isnt great


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SmartPhone OS platform wars

o The stakes are very high ($ billions at stake)

o Android, Apple, Samsung, Palm & Motorola prospects are up

o RIM, MS & Nokia prospects are down

Wi-Fi MiFi My-Fi every phone becomes a MiFi

LBS becomes pervasive and embedded in all apps

Google Voice

o Will the FCC intervene? Will it change voice in mobile?

Google Navigation

o Will it end paid turn-by-turn navigation?

Future of PND

o Replacing in-dash navigation in cars

o Will PNDs be replaced by SmartPhone?


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Hybrid approach to Cloud Computing

o Many services managed in the cloud

o Device capabilities continue (more processing, display resolution, graphics and storage)

Net Neutrality has limitations in the world of wireless

o Open, interstate highways

o Toll roads with QOS, throughput and low latency

Moores Law will squeeze netbook market shareo Integrated wireless bundles migrate to notebooks

o Notebook prices keep falling thus squeezing out netbooks

All wireless handsets for consumer use become SmartPhones

Within five years, all phones in US will be SmartPhones

Enterprise mobile becomes more centralized & managed as a service


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Mobile & Wireless Leads the Global Economic Recovery

Mobile and wireless experienced slower growth during the recession

o But, the number of subscribers actually grew

o

And, the growth in SmartPhones was amazing

People have become very dependent on the mobile phone

o They would return home to get it if left behind (along with wallet & keys)

o It is their primary contact method for business and personal

o You need it to get a new job

In 2010, mobile & wireless is a shining star in the economy

o Mobile becomes a leader in the rise from recession

o And, innovation will continue with new eBooks & SmartPhones


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Next Steps

Request a proposal for a Growth Partnership Service to support you and your team toaccelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])1-877-GoFrost (1-877-463-7678)

Register for the next Chairmans Series on Growth:

How to Be a Visionary: Leveraging the CEOs 360 Perspective Model, January 12, 2010(http://www.frost.com/growth)

Register for Frost & Sullivans Growth Opportunity Newsletters and keep abreast ofinnovative growth opportunities(www.frost.com/news)


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Your Feedback is Important to Us

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Competitive Structure?

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Other?

Please inform us by taking our survey.

What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?


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For Additional Information

For Additional Information

J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D.

Principal Analyst, Mobile & WirelessCommunications

(404) 406-5309

[email protected]

Brent Iadarola

Global Research Director

Mobile & Wireless Communications

(210) 481-0752

[email protected]

Craig Hays

Director of Sales

Information & Communication Technologies

(210) 247-2460

[email protected]

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Outlook Forecast Mobile Wireless Communications 12-01-09

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