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Para onde caminha o setor de brinquedos, as novas tendências e o futuro
Para onde caminha o setor de brinquedos, as novas tendências e o futuro
‚When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.‛
John M. Richardson, Jr.
‚As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.‛
Antoine de Saint-Exupery
WHERE IS TOY MANUFACTURING
GOING?
CHINA
TURKEY
MEXICO
VIET NAM
EASTERN EUROPE
INDIA
DECLINING BIRTH RATES
JAPAN
‚Japan is the first developed country to register more annual deaths than births and the elderly will outnumber children two to one within five years. . .‛
China Daily, July 3, 2008
EUROPE
‚For the first time on record, birthrates in southern and Eastern Europe had dropped below 1.3. . . At that rate, a country’s population would be cut in half in 45 years[emphasis mine]. . Demographers have invented an ominous new term for the phenomenon: ‘Lowest-low fertility.’‛
INDIA 2.62BRAZIL 2.18REPLACEMENT RATE 2.10UNITED STATES 2.06FRANCE 1.96UNITED KINGDOM 1.91RUSSIA 1.42CHINA 1.54GERMANY 1.41ITALY 1.39JAPAN 1.21
TOP GDP COUNTRIES BIRTH RATES
United StatesChinaIndiaJapanGermanyRussiaBrazilUnited KingdomFranceItaly
WORLD’S BIGGEST COUNTRIES BY GDP
China 1.3 BillionIndia 1.2 BillionUnited States 313 MillionIndonesia 237 MillionBrazil 190 MillionPakistan 179 MillionNigeria 162 MillionRussia 143 MillionBangladesh 142 MillionJapan 128 Million
WORLD’S BIGGEST COUNTRIES BY POPULATION
BrazilChina
United StatesRussia
COUNTRIES WITH POPULATION AND GDP
WHAT ABOUT GREEN?
AMAZON AND FRUSTRATION FREE PACKAGING
VIDEO GAMES IN TROUBLE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE TOY
INDUSTRY
‚…total U.S. game industry sales were $743.1 million in May, falling to their lowest point since October 2006.”
‚Game Console Sales Plummeted in June‛cnet, July 11, 2011
“Video game sales were off 21 percent in December to $3.99 billion from $5.07 billion the previous year.‚
PC Magazine, January 13, 2012
THE END OF MANUFACTURING?
$899.00 to $1299.00 US MakerBot Thing-O-Matic
www.makerbot.com
STAR TREK TRANSPORTER
$1799.00 US MakerBot Replicatorwww.makerbot.com
WHERE DO TOYS AND NEW TECHNOLOGY START AND STOP?
MOORE’S ECHO
WHATEVER IS CUTTING EDGE TECHNOLOGY TODAY
WILL BE A TOY IN 7 YEARS
DRONE UNMANNED AIRCRAFT $4.5 - $10 MILLION
PARROT AR TOY DRONE $299
iPAD 3 $499
LEAPFROG LEAPPAD $99
GOOGLE’S ‚PROJECT GLASS‛ AUGMENTED REALITY GLASSES
LG EBOOKS WITH FLEXIBLE DISPLAYS
QBO COMMUNICATIONS ROBOT
UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI SELF HEALING PLASTIC (IT BLEEDS)
Gottlieb’s Rebound
‚A toy with a purpose is no longer a toy when it does
the job cheaper than available technology.‛
Spykee Spy Robot Meccano / Erector $599
Rovio Wowee $229
IS IT THE END OF BIG BOX RETAILING?
ARE WAL-MART, CARREFOUR
& OTHER BIG RETAILERS THE DINOSAURS OF THE
21ST CENTURY?
Online retail sales will grow at a 10% average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2015 in both the United States and Europe…
Forester Research
THE END OF DRIVING & WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE TOY INDUSTRY & RETAILERS
In a survey of 3,000 consumers born from 1981 to 2000 — a generation marketers call “Millennials”—…Not one car brand ranked in the top 10, lagging far behind companies like Google and Nike.
‚As Young Lose Interest in Cars, G.M. Turns to MTV for Help‛Amy Coizick, New York Times, March 22, 2012
“Forty-six percent of drivers aged 18 to 24 said they would choose Internet access over owning a car…”
‚As Young Lose Interest in Cars, G.M. Turns to MTV for Help‛
Amy Coizick, New York Times, March 22, 2012
Driving Licenses
Percentage of 16 year olds with drivers licenses
1978 200850% 31%
Percentage of 17 year olds with drivers licenses1978 200875% 49%
Young Adult Share of Driving Miles(ages 21 to 30)
1995 2001 2009 20.8% 18.3% 13.7%
Toy CarsA $1.8 Billion U.S. Business
Matttel Hot Wheels
Mattel Matchbox
Funrise Tonka
Fisher-Price Powerwheels
Little Tykes Cozy Cars
THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION
‚Arguably, this is the most consequential generation of young adults, perhaps since the baby boomers, who famously made a lot of noise in the '60s and were part of a counterculture movement."
Paul TaylorExecutive Vice President
Pew Research Center
WHO ARE THE MILLENNIALLS?
Born between 1980 and the late 1990’s
Technology savvy / Wired
Racially diverse
Culturally liberal
Frugal / Value conscious
Peer oriented
EUROPE(S)
CHINA’S FUTURE: HONG KONG OR SHANGHAI
UNITED STATES
BRAZIL’S FUTURE ?
ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE
Keep on top of cutting edge consumer product technology
Keep up with new materials and processes
Attend international shows and visit foreign countries
Read current census data and keep up on demographics
Read the domestic and foreign press
Ask lots of questions
THE BEST WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO INVENT IT.
Alan Curtis Kay
WWW.GLOBALTOYEXPERTS.COM
WWW.GLOBALTOYNEWS.COM
