People and demographyA combination of declining mortality rates,prolonged life expectancy and youthful pop-ulations in regions characterized by high fer-tility has contributed to world populationgrowth. While growth rates have been slowingsince the late 1960s, the world’s populationhas nevertheless doubled since then to 6.9 bil-lion. Population growth is generally the high-est where income levels are low; and it is anincreasingly urban phenomenon. For the firsttime in 2008, more people lived in cities thanin rural areas.
World population growth across decades
1990-1999
2000-2010
% p.a.
Developed 0.40 0.40
East Asia 1.22 0.75
Latin America
& Caribbean 1.66 1.24
South Asia 2.04 1.56
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.65 2.50
Annual population growth(% p.a., 2000-10)
Georgia
Moldova
Latvia
Bulgaria
Armenia
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Ukraine
Lithuania
Romania
Belarus
Madagascar
Angola
Benin
Chad
Liberia
Uganda
Niger
Yemen
Afghanistan
United ArabEmirates
−1.1
−1.0
−0.8
−0.8
−0.7
−0.7
−0.6
−0.5
−0.4
−0.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.6
4.5
7.4
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Median age in countries(years, 2010)
Niger
Uganda
Mali
Afghanistan
Angola
DR Congo
Zambia
Malawi
Burkina Faso
Chad
Croatia
Greece
Belgium
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Austria
Finland
Italy
Germany
Japan
15.4
15.6
16.1
16.3
16.3
16.4
16.4
16.5
16.7
16.8
42.3
42.3
42.3
42.4
42.5
42.6
43.0
44.0
45.6
46.7
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Urban and rural population of the world (billion, 1960-2010)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rural Urban
2
Fertility rate (births per woman, 2009)
No
Dat
a
< 1.
9
1.9
− 2.
6
2.7
− 3.
4
3.5
− 4.
9
> 4.
9
3
Capital and investmentInvestment drives growth and development. Itis particularly important in agriculture giventhe sector’s strong impact on welfare. In-deed, countries that have successfully reducedpoverty and hunger are usually those withhigh investment rates per agricultural worker.Investment in new machinery, infrastructureand technology are vital to produce more, andmore efficiently in the future. However, mea-sured against GDP, there has been a slow-down in the rate of capital formation in pri-mary agriculture in both developed and devel-oping countries.
Agricultural capital stock across regions
2006 2007
billion US$
Developed 2 024 2 016
East Asia 755 761
Latin America & Caribbean 708 713
South Asia 663 675
Sub-Saharan Africa 414 422
Agricultural capital formation(% of GDP, 2006-2007)
CentralAfrican Rep.
Paraguay
Dominican Rep.
Guatemala
Tajikistan
Lao PDR
Togo
Myanmar
Nepal
Mozambique
Lesotho
Chad
Burkina Faso
Guinea
Malawi
Mali
Niger
Burundi
Ethiopia
Mongolia
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.3
5.0
5.0
6.0
6.6
7.2
8.2
9.4
10.1
14.2
30.3
Countries withhighest values
Agricultural capital formation(% of GDP, 2006-2007)
Slovakia
Panama
Romania
Ireland
Chile
Belarus
Portugal
Ukraine
Nicaragua
FYR Macedonia
Cambodia
Australia
Bosnia &Herzegovina
Moldova
Albania
Turkmenistan
Côte d'Ivoire
Ecuador
Uruguay
Afghanistan
−0.1
−0.1
−0.2
−0.2
−0.2
−0.3
−0.3
−0.3
−0.4
−0.4
−0.4
−0.4
−0.4
−0.4
−0.6
−0.8
−1.1
−1.3
−1.3
−2.7
Countries with lowest values
Components of world agricultural capital stock (billion US$, 1993-2007)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Land Development Livestock Machinery & Equipment Plantation
4
Annual change in agricultural capital stock (% of GDP, 2007)
No
Dat
a
< 0
0 −
0.5
0.5
− 1
1 −
2
> 2
5
InfrastructureOne of the key factors holding back agricul-tural development in many low-income coun-tries is the absence of adequate rural infras-tructure. The availability of rural transporta-tion networks, electrification, storage andcooling facilities would be a prerequisite foragriculture sectors to thrive. Improved in-frastructure links farmers to markets, reducestransactions costs and increases the competi-tiveness of the agriculture sector.
Share of rural population with access to elec-tricity
%, 2008
Developed 99.5
East Asia 86.5
Latin America & Caribbean 74.0
South Asia 51.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 14.3
Lead time to import(days, 2009*)
Benin
Colombia
Algeria
Spain
Tanzania
Angola
Myanmar
Cameroon
Jamaica
Libya
Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Venezuela
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Zimbabwe
Bolivia
Iran
Sierra Leone
Chad
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
8.0
8.4
8.9
10.0
10.0
11.5
12.0
12.1
14.0
14.0
18.0
28.3
28.3
32.0
35.0
Countries withhighest values
Lead time to export(days, 2009*)
Liberia
Haiti
Malawi
Algeria
Myanmar
Ethiopia
Mali
Uganda
Angola
Azerbaijan
Colombia
Tajikistan
Zambia
Venezuela
Jamaica
Mongolia
Bolivia
Zimbabwe
Sudan
Chad
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.6
5.0
5.0
5.5
6.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
9.2
9.4
10.0
14.0
15.0
25.0
39.0
74.0
Countries withhighest values
Quality of infrastructure (1=poor; 5=excellent, 2010)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Developed East AsiaLatin America& Caribbean
South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa
6
Quality of infrastructure (1=poor; 5=excellent, 2010)
No
Dat
a
< 2.
1
2.1
− 2.
5
2.6
− 3.
1
3.2
− 3.
8
> 3.
8
7
InputsAdequate access to inputs is vital for agricul-tural productivity growth. Expanding fertilizeruse has boosted production in Asia and partsof Latin America. Similarly, plant breedinghas helped to bolster productivity by adaptingcultivated varieties to local conditions and bymaking them more resilient. In other regions,notably sub-Saharan Africa, the uptake of agri-cultural inputs is relatively low as it is oftencheaper to expand cropland to meet higherproduction.
Energy use by agriculture as a share of totalenergy use
%, 2009
Developed regions 1.7
East Asia 1.9
Latin America & Caribbean 3.9
South Asia 3.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2
Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arableland (kg, 2008)
Benin
Eritrea
Mozambique
Tajikistan
Namibia
Niger
DR Congo
Congo
Guinea
Malawi
Croatia
China
Ireland
Korea
Colombia
Chile
Costa Rica
Egypt
Malaysia
New Zealand
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.7
388
468
480
480
492
589
707
724
930
1 720
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Pesticide consumption per hectare of arableland (kg, 2008)
Niger
Lao PDR
Burkina Faso
Kyrgyzstan
FYR Macedonia
Guinea
Tunisia
Myanmar
Azerbaijan
Yemen
Nicaragua
Bangladesh
Switzerland
Italy
Portugal
Colombia
Netherlands
Chile
Japan
China
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
8.8
9.8
10.1
11.4
13.0
15.3
17.6
20.0
26.5
27.6
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arable land (kg, 2002-08)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
High incomeLatin America &Caribbean
South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa
8
Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arable land (kg, 2008)
No
Dat
a
< 10
0
100
− 40
0
400
− 10
00
1000
− 1
700
> 17
00
9
Land and water resourcesWith ever increasing demands on agricultureboth for food and feedstock for industry, andalso a need to preserve resources for futuregenerations, the finite capacity of land and wa-ter resources has become the centre of debate.So far, land and water management systemshave been able to meet the demands placedon them, for example through the use of high-input irrigated agriculture. Often though, in-tensification has come at the expense of theenvironment. Climate change will bring addi-tional risk, such as temperature, humidity andwater stress.
Arable land potential
million hectares, as of 2010
Developed 488.7
East Asia 130.8
Latin America & Caribbean 855.2
South Asia 13.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 779.0
Arable land per person(ha, 2009)
Singapore
Kuwait
United ArabEmirates
Korea
Jordan
Japan
Lebanon
Egypt
Papua N.Guinea
Colombia
Belarus
Paraguay
Lithuania
Ukraine
Argentina
RussianFederation
Niger
Canada
Kazakhstan
Australia
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
5.8
6.0
6.1
7.1
7.7
8.5
10.0
13.4
14.8
21.5
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Renewable water resources per person(m3, 2008)
Kuwait
United ArabEmirates
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Libya
Singapore
Jordan
Israel
Algeria
Tunisia
Chile
Lao PDR
Liberia
Bolivia
Peru
New Zealand
Norway
Canada
Papua N.Guinea
Congo
8.0
22.0
90.0
90.0
96.0
121
155
245
334
443
54 376
54 565
60 480
63 696
66 504
75 642
79 024
86 177
119 499
211 114
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Annual growth of cropland (%, 1970-2009)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Developed East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa
10
Arable land per person (ha, 2009)
No
Dat
a
< 0.
07
0.07
− 0
.15
0.15
− 0
.3
0.3
− 0.
5
> 0.
5
11
LabourLabour force participation rates are usuallyhighest in the poorest countries as few can af-ford to remain outside of the labour force. Theagriculture sector, in particular, offers workingopportunities for the poor in many develop-ing countries, often as self-employed or unpaidfamily workers. Poverty is also the principaldriver of the high rate of child labour in agri-culture. Population growth will create addi-tional pressures on labour markets. Currently,economies around the world are not generat-ing sufficient employment opportunities to ab-sorb additions to the working-age population.
Labour force participation rates across regions
%, 2010*
Developed 60.3
East Asia 72.5
Latin America & Caribbean 66.2
South Asia 57.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 70.2
Employment in agriculture(%, 2010*)
Argentina
Singapore
United Kingdom
United States
Israel
Belgium
Kuwait
Germany
Sweden
Canada
Lesotho
Papua N.Guinea
Tanzania
Guinea
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Chad
Lao PDR
Burkina Faso
Rwanda
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.5
72.3
72.3
74.6
76.0
80.2
82.0
83.0
85.4
88.8
90.1
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Share of female labour force employed in agri-culture (%)
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Syria
Pakistan
Lebanon
Egypt
Jordan
Turkey
Libya
Lao PDR
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Guinea
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Mozambique
Tanzania
Rwanda
Burundi
13.8
17.4
19.9
21.1
21.7
22.3
22.4
23.3
24.0
24.7
77.7
78.2
78.3
79.2
80.7
84.2
84.8
86.3
86.7
91.0
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Share of employment in agriculture (%, 1991-2010)
0
20
40
60
80
1995 2000 2005 2010
Developed East Asia South AsiaLatin America& Caribbean
Sub−Saharan Africa
12
Share of employment in agriculture (%, 2010)
No
Dat
a
< 11
11 −
27
28 −
46
47 −
65
> 65
13
MacroeconomyChanges in the wider economy and macroe-conomic policy affect the performance of theagriculture sector. Higher economic growthraises incomes and hence demand. Changinginterest rates influence capital investments,land values and storage levels, while infla-tion affects input prices, revenues, and creditcosts. Fluctuations in exchange rates have animportant bearing on international competi-tiveness and trade flows. The agriculture sec-tor, buoyed by very high commodity prices,has demonstrated resilience during the currentglobal economic turmoil.
Agricultural value added(% of GDP, 1960-2009)
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
East Asia&Pacific
Europe &Central Asia
LatianAmerica &Caribbean
Sub−SaharanAfrica
GDP per capita(ADAM: TIDY INTERVALS, 2010)
Burundi
DR Congo
Liberia
Malawi
Sierra Leone
Ethiopia
Niger
Madagascar
Eritrea
CentralAfrican Rep.
Ireland
Canada
Netherlands
United States
Sweden
Australia
Denmark
United ArabEmirates
Switzerland
Norway
180
186
226
321
325
350
381
391
397
435
45 688
46 214
47 172
47 283
48 874
55 589
56 147
59 716
67 246
84 443
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Real GDP growth(%, 2009-2010)
Haiti
Greece
Madagascar
Venezuela
Croatia
Kyrgyzstan
Romania
Jamaica
Ireland
Latvia
Botswana
Peru
Zimbabwe
Congo
Sri Lanka
Argentina
Turkmenistan
India
Singapore
Paraguay
−5.1
−4.5
−2.0
−1.9
−1.4
−1.4
−1.3
−1.1
−1.0
−0.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.2
10.4
14.5
15.3
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Total GDP (US$ billion, current, 1980-2010)
10000
20000
30000
40000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Developed Countries Developing Countries
14
Agricultural value added (% of GDP, 2009*)
No
Dat
a
< 6
6 −
14
15 −
24
25 −
39
> 39
15