Visualizing Success

Planning for the Future: Redistricting

November 13, 2012

Agenda • Part 1 – What Have You Heard • Part 2 – Enrollment Update

– Current Attendance Areas and Planning Areas – Sophisticated Forecast Model – Past Enrollment – Development – Projections

• Part 3 – Committee Information – Ground Rules and Parking Lot – Community Vision – Facility Time Line – Sandbox – Boundary Criteria

• Part 4 – Digging Into Concepts – Current Elementary School Attendance Area – Concept One: Elementary School Attendance Area – Concept One: Middle School Attendance Area – Concept Two: Elementary School Attendance Area – Concept Two: Middle School Attendance Area

• Part 5 – Next Steps

Part 1: What Have You

Learned

Committee Activity

• Talk to the people at your table

• Ask for their name and where they live • Ask them what they have heard about school

openings and new attendance areas • Ask them what could help the community

better understand the boundary discussion • Report out to the Group what you found out

Part 2: Enrollment

Update

District Map • District Boundary (purple line) • City Limits (solid colors) • Major Streets • Major water features

Elementary Map • District Boundary (purple line) • Elementary Attendance Areas (solid colors) • Major Streets • Major water features

Planning Area Map • District Boundary (purple line) • Planning Areas and Number (green lines and numbers) • Major Streets • Major water features

Three Key Things About the District

• Enrollment is projected to increase over the next five years – nearly 200 students • Plans for new elementary capacity will result in boundary adjustments in 2013/14 and plans for secondary building usage should begin before capacity becomes an issue at those facilities • There are significant areas of vacant land that when they are developed will have a drastic effect on future enrollment The enrollment outlook has been modified to reflect a new normal economy.

Sophisticated Forecast Model This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.

S = S * GCc, t, x c - 1, t - 1, x S = The number of students, either an actual count or a projected count x = A subscript denoting a planning area in Blue Valley c = Grade level t = Time GC = Growth component, either modeling enrollment increase or decrease

based on historical information, expressed as a student enrollment ratio of cohort c in planning area x

)( ,,,1,1,, xcxtxtcxtc RBPSS ×+= −−

Where CTBTCP

BTCPBP

xx

xxxt ×

×∑×

=,

Built-Out

Developing

S = The number of students, either an actual count or a projected count x = A subscript denoting a planning area in Blue Valley c = Grade level t = Time BP = Building permit forecast as given by the BPAM model Rc, x = Student enrollment ratio of cohort c in planning area x. CP = Capacity of a planning area as expressed by available housing units BT = Building history trend of a planning area CT = Building permit control total forecast

Page 35

Past School Enrollment

Pig in the Snake Effect Largest class in 2012/13 – 11th grade (514) Smallest class in 2012/13 – 4th grade (420) Graduating senior class could be larger than the next year incoming Kindergarten class

Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total1999/00 336 302 366 330 330 321 312 339 368 378 339 322 249 4,2922000/01 310 342 330 385 344 342 343 340 357 385 387 315 304 4,4842001/02 351 320 332 348 412 367 367 361 356 385 400 370 305 4,6742002/03 370 368 344 352 378 438 373 387 400 387 377 378 335 4,8872003/04 365 352 401 392 394 423 472 410 422 439 371 347 334 5,1222004/05 380 380 376 425 405 400 433 484 420 437 405 340 314 5,1992005/06 462 397 409 400 442 423 423 452 491 475 438 397 322 5,5312006/07 427 468 406 420 415 460 436 460 459 523 466 410 390 5,7402007/08 488 440 468 418 435 419 472 451 463 501 528 450 377 5,9102008/09 435 488 460 477 448 434 426 494 452 500 493 512 451 6,0702009/10 460 437 502 471 483 442 452 426 509 468 494 469 482 6,0952010/11 515 464 440 508 483 486 463 468 446 531 478 490 453 6,2252011/12 449 511 479 437 499 498 487 485 449 463 537 448 461 6,2032012/13 454 439 506 468 420 493 491 484 490 480 478 514 432 6,149Source: Data provided by Lincoln County R-III School District

Past School Enrollment Change

Largest average class increase – 8th to 9th grade (>+25) Largest average class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (>-20) Propensity to have cohort increase students from year to year in most grades

Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Year Year K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11thFrom To 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th

1999/00 2000/01 -26 6 28 19 14 12 22 28 18 17 9 -24 -182000/01 2001/02 41 10 -10 18 27 23 25 18 16 28 15 -17 -102001/02 2002/03 19 17 24 20 30 26 6 20 39 31 -8 -22 -352002/03 2003/04 -5 -18 33 48 42 45 34 37 35 39 -16 -30 -442003/04 2004/05 15 15 24 24 13 6 10 12 10 15 -34 -31 -332004/05 2005/06 82 17 29 24 17 18 23 19 7 55 1 -8 -182005/06 2006/07 -35 6 9 11 15 18 13 37 7 32 -9 -28 -72006/07 2007/08 61 13 0 12 15 4 12 15 3 42 5 -16 -332007/08 2008/09 -53 0 20 9 30 -1 7 22 1 37 -8 -16 12008/09 2009/10 25 2 14 11 6 -6 18 0 15 16 -6 -24 -302009/10 2010/11 55 4 3 6 12 3 21 16 20 22 10 -4 -162010/11 2011/12 -66 -4 15 -3 -9 15 1 22 -19 17 6 -30 -292011/12 2012/13 5 -10 -5 -11 -17 -6 -7 -3 5 31 15 -23 -16

3 Year Average -2.0 -3.3 4.3 -2.7 -4.7 4.0 5.0 11.7 2.0 23.3 10.3 -19.0 -20.33 Year WAverage -10.3 -5.7 3.0 -5.5 -9.5 2.5 0.3 8.5 -0.5 24.8 11.2 -22.2 -20.3Source: Data provided by Lincoln County R-III School District

Year Built Map • Where has the growth been? • Will this impact enrollment? • Colors of dots represent a specific year

Potential Growth Areas Map

• Where will the growth be? • Identifies possible areas that could develop (yellow) • The market and property owner desire to build guides the timing of development • Other properties not shown might develop while some shown might not develop

Past, Current & Future Enrollment

Source: Lincoln County R-III School District Official Count and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count Student data is last school day count for 2000/01 to 2011/12 Future Numbers are the Midpoint Projection

The enrollment outlook may be different than what has been expected for the last five years with new RSP projections.

1,985 2,053 2,130 2,250 2,327 2,366 2,533 2,596 2,668 2,740 2,795 2,896 2,873 2,780

1,019 1,040 1,084 1,160 1,304 1,3371,366 1,355 1,386 1,374 1,346 1,377 1,421 1,4651,288 1,391 1,460

1,4771,491 1,496

1,632 1,789 1,856 1,956 1,954 1,952 1,909 1,904

2,730 2,778 2,792 2,799 2,874

1,485 1,442 1,428 1,441 1,473

1,959 1,953 1,999 2,061 2,013

4,2924,484

4,674 4,887 5,1225,199

5,5315,740 5,910 6,070 6,095 6,225 6,203 6,149 6,175 6,173 6,219 6,301 6,360

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Past, Current, and Future ES, MS, and HS Enrollment

ES MS HS Proj Mid ES Proj Mid MS Proj Mid HS District

Elementary Enrollment Projections School Enrollment

Type 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Boone Elementary Reside/Attend 388 375 345

Kdg to 5th Attend 426 439 414 353 347 341 347 352Capacity 450 Reside 430 406 373

Cuivre Park Elementary Reside/Attend 620 642 629Kdg to 5th Attend 692 684 663 632 638 624 625 632Capacity 750 Reside 658 678 656

Hawk Point Elementary Reside/Attend 119 126 129Kdg to 5th Attend 125 130 129 180 184 171 165 154Capacity 150 Reside 180 199 185

Lincoln Elementary Reside/Attend 402 383 381Kdg to 5th Attend 446 418 417 396 400 411 400 418Capacity 450 Reside 439 407 410

Main Street Elementary Reside/Attend 523 513 498Kdg to 5th Attend 576 565 533 531 546 552 543 551Capacity 600 Reside 551 552 522

Will iam Cappel Elementary Reside/Attend 581 608 614Kdg to 5th Attend 631 637 624 638 664 692 719 767Capacity 600 Reside 638 631 634

ELEMENTARY TOTALKdg to 5th Attend 2,896 2,873 2,780 2,730 2,778 2,792 2,799 2,874Capacity 3,000 Reside 2,896 2,873 2,780

Note 9: RSP recommends the District utilize the mid projection for future planningNote 8: Past enrollment is not a Certified Enrollment County, the student data is from the district student database

Past School Year Projections Based on Residence

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2012 Exceed district capacityNote 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Head count of students by Planning Area at each facilityNote 3: Capacity for each facility and building changes provided by the DistrictNote 4: Projections do not include Elementary Transfers between facilities - New Horizons enrollment is included in past enrollment and projectionsNote 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the DistrictNote 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attendance for Out of District Students, based on current boundaryNote 7: Reside/Attend is a student who resides in a school boundary and attends that facility

Secondary Enrollment Projections School Enrollment

Type 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18Troy Middle School

6th to 8th Attend 1,377 1,421 1,465 1,485 1,442 1,428 1,441 1,473Capacity 1,697 Reside 1,377 1,421 1,465

9th Grade Center9th Attend 531 463 480 527 524 538 554 479Capacity 645 Reside 531 463 480

Troy Buchanan High10th to 12th Attend 1,376 1,380 1,345 1,357 1,352 1,380 1,427 1,456Capacity 1,709 Reside 1,376 1,380 1,345

New Horizons10th to 12th Attend 45 66 79 75 77 81 80 78Capacity Reside 45 66 79

MIDDLE TOTAL6th to 8th Attend 1,377 1,421 1,465 1,485 1,442 1,428 1,441 1,473Capacity 1,697 Reside 1,377 1,421 1,465

HIGH TOTAL9th to 12th Attend 1,952 1,909 1,904 1,959 1,953 1,999 2,061 2,013Capacity 2,354 Reside 1,952 1,909 1,904

DISTRICT TOTALSKdg to 12th Attend 6,225 6,203 6,149 6,175 6,173 6,219 6,301 6,360Capacity 7,051 Reside 6,225 6,203 6,149

Note 9: RSP recommends the District utilize the mid projection for future planningNote 8: Past enrollment is not a Certified Enrollment County, the student data is from the district student database

Past School Year Projections Based on Residence

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - October 2012 Exceed district capacityNote 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student. Note 2: The Enrollment Model is based on a Head count of students by Planning Area at each facilityNote 3: Capacity for each facility and building changes provided by the DistrictNote 4: Projections do not include Elementary Transfers between facilities - New Horizons enrollment is included in past enrollment and projectionsNote 5: Attend is the facility the student has been assigned by the DistrictNote 6: Reside is the placement of a student in the model either geographically or by attendance for Out of District Students, based on current boundaryNote 7: Reside/Attend is a student who resides in a school boundary and attends that facility

Part 3: Committee Information

Ground Rules

• Silence Phones • Think Big Picture - Globally • Start And End On Time • No Side Bar Conversations • Speak Up Make Opinion Heard • Don’t Talk Over People • Stay Focused

Committee Response 10/30/12

Process in Detail: • 3 Board of Education Meetings • 5 Committee Meetings • 1 Public Forums

Listed below are the items the Board of Education felt were important for the Boundary Committee to use in guiding the process to a successful implementation:

• Changes to the elementary and middle school attendance areas will be a challenge for students, teachers, and patrons but is necessary and must happen for World Class Education to continue for each student

• Solutions should best utilize all of the District’s resources

• Educational Programming considerations should provide equality at all facilities

• Overall goal is to make a recommendation to the BOE on new attendance areas for the elementary and middle school levels

Community Vision Statement

High School • No proposed Changes

Middle School • New Facility opens in 2016/17 • Comprehensive facilities • 6th Grade will move out of Claude Brown ES when MS opens in 2016/17

Elementary School • Early Childhood facility opens in 2013/14 • Claude Brown begins serving KDG to 5th grade in 2013/14 (EC portion) • Comprehensive facilities

Facility Timeline

Listed below are the items the Board of Education felt were important for the Boundary Committee to consider or know they are aware of in your analysis of future attendance areas: • Set Comprehensive Attendance areas for elementary and middle school grade levels • District Administration will determine where Special Programs are located (ESL, SPED,

Reading, etc.) • Transition of the plan (Phasing, student options) • Claude Brown becomes an elementary in 2013/14 (6th grade remains until 2016/17) • Attendance areas designed to allow for enrollment growth (How small can it begin with)

Creating the Sandbox

The above are examples of areas that could be considered; others may evolve during the work session.

RSP Boundary Criteria to Consider

The following are always to be considered: • Exceptional education must take place at each facility in every option • The goal is to minimize subjective comments and rumors in order to obtain BOE goals

and priorities, and yet provide for the educational need of each student

1 Contiguous Planning Areas 2 Demographic Considerations 3 Duration of Boundaries 4 Feeder System Considerations 5 Fiscal Consideration - Capital 6 Fiscal Consideration - Operational 7 Neighborhoods Intact 8 Projected Enrollment/Building Utilization 9 Students Impacted by Boundary Change 10 Transportation Considerations

Boundary Criteria Example (Alphabetized)

Board Prioritized Criteria

1. Projected Enrollment / Building Utilization 2. Feeder Systems 3. Neighborhoods Intact 4. Contiguous Planning Areas 5. Transportation

On September 12th the Board of Education discussed the 10 criteria that were to be used in the boundary process. After that discussion by utilizing the “clickers” the criteria were prioritized The prioritized criteria is to be used as the starting point and reference to being able to determine which boundary scenario will be best for the Lincoln County School District community.

Part 4: Digging

Into Concepts

Current Elementary School

Concept One Introduction Elementary School • Balance enrollment and building utilization • Based on creating a complete ES to MS Feeder pattern • Keep neighborhoods (planning areas) together • Create as best as possible contiguous (compact) attendance areas • Areas moved targeted to minimize transportation concerns • Claude Brown Early Childhood Program relocated to new facility in 2013/14 • Claude Brown becomes a K-5 elementary in the 2013/14 school year with a 300 building capacity • Claude Brown will have the ability to increase building capacity to 600 in 2016/17 if a new middle school is built • Claude Brown has an area in close geographic proximity assigned to its attendance area • Addresses over utilization issues specifically a concern at William Cappel and Cuivre Park • Attempt to disrupt as few elementary students as possible • Demographics shown but not a factor in how attendance areas created

Middle School • Balance enrollment and building utilization • Based on creating a complete ES to MS Feeder pattern • Keep neighborhoods (planning areas) together • Create as best as possible contiguous (compact) attendance areas • Areas moved targeted to minimize transportation concerns • Creates mostly a North/South ES to MS school feeder • Troy MS has Boone, Claude Brown, Cuivre Park, and Hawk Point as feeder schools • Crooked Creek Site MS has Lincoln, Main Street, and William Cappel as feeder schools • Keeps Troy MS with the larger enrollment • Growth areas are in both attendance areas

Concept 1 Elementary School

See 36 x 36 inch Map at Your Table

Concept 1 Middle School

See 36 x 36 inch Map at Your Table

Concept Two Introduction Elementary School • Balance enrollment and building utilization • Based on creating a complete ES to MS Feeder pattern • Keep neighborhoods (planning areas) together • Create as best as possible contiguous (compact) attendance areas • Areas moved targeted to minimize transportation concerns • Claude Brown Early Childhood Program relocated to new facility in 2013/14 • Claude Brown becomes a K-5 elementary in the 2013/14 school year with a 300 building capacity • Claude Brown will have the ability to increase building capacity to 600 in 2016/17 if a new middle school is built • Claude Brown does not have an area in close geographic proximity assigned to its attendance area • Addresses over utilization issues specifically a concern at William Cappel and Cuivre Park • Attempt to disrupt as few elementary students as possible • Demographics shown but not a factor in how attendance areas created

Middle School • Balance enrollment and building utilization • Based on creating a complete ES to MS Feeder pattern • Keep neighborhoods (planning areas) together • Create as best as possible contiguous (compact) attendance areas • Areas moved targeted to minimize transportation concerns • Creates mostly a East/West ES to MS school feeder • Troy MS has Boone, Boone, Hawk Point, Lincoln, Main Street as feeder schools • Crooked Creek Site MS has Claude Brown, Cuivre Park, and William Cappel as feeder schools • Keeps Troy MS with a slightly larger enrollment • Majority of growth is in the Crooked Creek Site attendance area Orange color text signifies a difference from ES Concept One

Concept 2 Elementary School

See 36 x 36 inch Map at Your Table

Concept 2 Middle School

See 36 x 36 inch Map at Your Table

Part 4: Next Steps

Questions with clickers

• These questions will happen throughout the presentation:

- See if you are still awake - Get immediate feedback - Data will help with future discussions

Are you over-whelmed?

Yes N

o

83%

17%

1. Yes 2. No

Does the new enrollment outlook match your view of what you think will happen in the community?

Yes N

o

31%

69%1. Yes 2. No

Should new elementary schools have a neighborhood contiguous to it?

Yes N

o

46%

54%1. Yes 2. No

Currently elementary schools like Lincoln do not have neighborhoods adjacent in their attendance area.

Should the middle school be physically located in the attendance area it serves?

Yes N

o

28%

72%1. Yes 2. No

This is nearly impossible to achieve for elementary schools

Do you think the concepts should continue to work toward having a complete feeder system?

Yes N

o

19%

81%1. Yes 2. No

Which geographic feeder split do you prefer?

North

/South

East/

West

67%

33%

Note: • North/South would be a split that for example might be along 47 Hwy

(North of Hwy to MS#1 and South of Hwy to MS#2) • East/West would be a split that for example might be along 61 Hwy

(East of Hwy to MS#1 and West of Hwy to MS#2)

1. North/South 2. East/West

Which elementary school concept do you like best?

Concept 1

Concept 2

44%

56%1. Concept 1 2. Concept 2

Which middle school concept do you like best?

Concept 1

Concept 2

97%

3%

1. Concept 1 2. Concept 2

Has this process in creating concepts been easy for you to understand?

Yes N

o

8%

92%1. Yes 2. No

Next Steps Boundary Committee

• November 27, 2012 at 5:30 – Boundary Concepts

• Homework – Talk with people you know about this meeting

Communication

• Talk with your friends and neighbors to get their feedback

http://www.troy.k12.mo.us/domain/914

• Direct them to the website

World Class Education • This has to be the focus of each committee member • Continue to think globally

Notes: ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________