Pragmatic Approach to Address Climate Change|eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7181.pdfThermal with CCS Thermal...

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IEEJ: February 2017 © IEEJ2017

Pragmatic Approach to Address Climate Change| The Role of Technologies with a case of Carbon Free Hydrogen

9 February 2017 Tokyo

Yukari Yamashita

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

IEEJ-KAPSARC Joint Seminar 2017

All Rights Reserved IEEJ


❖ GHGs emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2010 2030 2050

GtC

O2

INDC

50% Reduct ion by 2050

Reference

Advanced Technologies

❖ Evaluation of Paris Agreement

Good!!

Over 180 countries, including China and India, agreed to take actions using bottom-up approach. Global GHG emissions will increase from the current level.

Challenges

Pragmatic Approach

Paris Agreement : A step towards global action

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016 2



Global Actions will Reduce CO2 by 3.8% by 2050 from current level

❖ Changes in primary energy consumption ❖ CO2 emissions and reduction

10

12

14

16

18

20

2014 Reference,2040

Advanced Technologies,

2040

Gto

e

∆Coa

l

∆Nat

ural

gas

∆Oil

∆Nuc

lear

∆Ren

ewab

les

∆Coa

l

∆Nat

ural

gas∆O

il

∆Nuc

lear

∆Ren

ewab

les

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2010 2030 2050

Gt

Energy eff iciency

Biofuel

Solar, wind, etc.

Nuclear

Fuel switching

Reference


IEA Bridge Scenario

50% Reduction by 2050

13.7 Gt


Reference Scenario : reflects past trends as well as energy and environment policies that have been introduced so far. Advanced Technologies Scenario (ATS) : promotes energy conservation and low-carbon technologies for maximum impacts.



Pragmatic/Practical Approach to address Climate Change

IEEJ’s understanding is as follows; 1) Economic growth and measures to cope with Climate Change need to be compatible with each other IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4, WGⅢ, Ch.1) Balancing between “not enough measures” (and resulting damage including food security and ecosystems) and “too much measures” (that may threaten sustainable development).

2) Uncertainty around Climate Science need to be fully considered 3) One way to look is to minimize the total cost (Mitigation + Adaptation + Damage) rather than uniquely reducing the damage through mitigation. 4) The transfer of state of the art technologies to developing countries is important. It, of course, would require appropriate financial schemes. 5) New technologies are essential to further reduce GHG emissions at affordable cost . 6) Innovation can be achieved through international collaboration.

4



-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%Reduction from the Reference Scenario

2014 USD trillion/year

Total (A+B)

Damage +adaptation cost (B)

Mitigation cost (A)

2100

Mitigation vs. Adaptation Costs in 2100

Mitigation cost increases rapidly beyond certain point




Rule for Ultra Long-term: Reduce the Total Cost

6

❖ Mitigation + Adaptation + Damage = Total cost ❖ Image of total cost for each path

Mitigation

Typical measures are GHG emissions reduction via energy efficiency and non-fossil energy use. Includes reduction of GHG release to the atmosphere via CCS. These measures mitigate climate change.

Adaptation

Temperature rise may cause sea-level rise, agricultural crop drought, disease pandemic, etc. Adaptation includes counter measures such as building banks/reservoir, agricultural research and disease preventive actions.

Dam

age

If mitigation and adaptation cannot reduce the climate change effects enough to stop sea-level rise, draught and pandemics, damage will take place.

Path 1Too small

BigBig

Path 2Reasonable

MediumMedium

Path 3Too bigSmallSmall

Mit igat ion

Adaptat ion

Damage

Total cost

Mit igat ionAdaptat ionDamage



0

200

400

600

800

2000 21500

1

2

3

4

2000 2150

7

❖ In the ultra long-term paths

CO2 emissions (Gt)

CO2 concentration (ppm)

Temperature rise (°C)

Total cost ($2015 billion/year)

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2050 2100 2150

Note: Estimated with climate sensitivity set as 3°C. If CS is 2.5°C, then temperature will rise by 3.7°C, 2.5°C and 1.4°C, respectively for the three cases, namely Reference Case equivalent, Optimum Cost with innovation and 50% Reduction by 2050 Cases, by 2150.

0

50

100

150

200

Refe

renc

e-eq

Optim

um C

ost [

Stan

dard

]

50%

Red

uctio

n by

205

0

Reference-eq Advanced Technologies Opt imum Cost [Standard]

Opt imum Cost [Tech Innovat ion] 50% Reduct ion by 2050

Pragmatic Approach: Going Beyond “Simply Mitigation”

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016



Importance of Technology Development for Ultra Long Term

8

Nuclear Fusion

Space Photovoltaic (SPS)

Hydrogen Production

& Usage

CO2 Sequestration & Usage (CCU)



IEEJ: February 2017 © IEEJ2017 The role of Hydrogen Hydrogen: An Option for Countries Without CCS Potential

9 Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016



Hydrogen : There is No Royal Road, but There is A Road

10

❖ CO2 emissions and reduction

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2010 2030 2050

Gt

CCS

Reference


Advanced Technologies + CCS

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2030 2050

Gt

CCS

Hydrogen

Reference


Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen




Hydrogen Will Become an Option Depending on Cost Cut

❖ In the ultra long-term paths

CO2 emissions (Gt)

CO2 concentration (ppm)

Temperature rise (°C)

Note: “Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen” means the “Higher Hydrogen Scenario” in the body.

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2050 2100 21500

200

400

600

800

2000 2050 2100 21500

1

2

3

4

2000 2050 2100 2150

Reference-eq Optimum cost Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen

50% reduction by 2050

11 Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016



Main Use of Hydrogen: Power Generation and Automobile

12

❖ Power generation mix ❖ New passenger car sales

29%14%

13%

0

10

20

30

40A

dvan

ced

Tech

nolo

gies

+

CCS

Adv

ance

d Te

chno

logi

es

+ H

ydro

gen

PWh

Hydrogen

Thermalw ith CCSThermal

Renewables

Nuclear

2%13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Adv

ance

d Te

chno

logi

es

+ C

CS

Adv

ance

d Te

chno

logi

es

+ H

ydro

gen

FCV

EV

PHEV

HEV

NGV

ICV




Use

Region

For power generat ion in hydrogen import ing regions

For transport/industry in importing regions For transport/industry in exporting regions 0 500 1,000 1,500

AustraliaMENA

North AmericaJapan

EuropeLat in America

IndiaASEAN8

China

GNm3

Consumpt ion Product ion

Hydrogen: An option for countries without CCS potential

❖ Supply and demand of hydrogen [Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen, 2050]

❖ Hydrogen consumption [Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen, 2050]

Note: Net export/import is defined as the difference in consumption and production Total consumption: 3,240 GNm3

13



Conclusion

１． Paris agreement is a success. But only a success towards a greater success. 2. We need to make further efforts to reduce GHG emissions. 3. The important thing, however, is to take a pragmatic/practical approach given

the need for compatibility between economic growth and measures to address Climate Change. Moreover, the huge uncertainty surrounding Climate Science should be resolved.

4. The major point of this approach is to minimize the total cost of damage , mitigation and adaptation, not only mitigation. 5. Although a 50% reduction of GHG by 2050 is unlikely to be realized, the

development of innovation technologies is imperative, including production of carbon free hydrogen from fossil fuels , in order to maximize the reduction of GHG emissions in the long run.

14



IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016 Is available at : http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/424.html (English) and at : http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/whatsnew_op/161021teireiken.html (Japanese)

Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016

Thank you very much for your attention.

Contact: [email protected]

http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/424.htmlhttp://eneken.ieej.or.jp/whatsnew_op/161021teireiken.html

スライド番号 1スライド番号 2スライド番号 3スライド番号 4スライド番号 5Rule for Ultra Long-term: Reduce the Total Cost スライド番号 7スライド番号 8スライド番号 9スライド番号 10Hydrogen Will Become an Option Depending on Cost Cutスライド番号 12Hydrogen: An option for countries without CCS potentialスライド番号 14スライド番号 15

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