Presentación de MERCADO MAIZ JULIO 2020 Bolsa ......2020/07/28 · Fundamentos del mercado de MAIZ...

1

ED&F Man Capital Markets


Presentación de MERCADO MAIZ JULIO 2020

Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia

2


COVID – Situacion Actual

3


COVID – Situacion Actual - Mini S&P & VIX Index

4


Mercado MAÍZ

5


Cuáles son los participantes más importantes? Escenarios 19/20 y 20/21

Corn Market

Source: USDA

US

45.1 | 54.6

(-9.5) | (-)

1

Brazil

34.0 | 38.0

(-4.0) | (-)

Argentina

37.0 | 34.0

(+3.0) | (-)

3

2

Mexico

17.0 | 18.3

(-1,3) | (-)

2

EU

21.5 | 23.0

(-1.5) | (-)

1

Egypt

10.3 | 11.0

(-0.7) | (-)

6

Southeast Asia

18.2 | 18.1

(+0.4) | (0.3)

3

South Korea

11.4 | 11.8

(-0.4) | (-)

5

Japan

16.0 | 16.0

(-) | (-)

4

Ukraine

32.0 | 33.0

(-1.0) (-)

4

Top Exporters

Top Importers

Top Exports and Importers | Corn (M ton)

19/20 | 20/21

(Jul vs Jun)

6


Mientras Sudamérica cosecha, el cereal está en desarrollo en US

Corn Market

Corn Crop Calendar – Stages by Month

Source: Refinitiv, ED&F Man

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Argentina

Brazil (Summer)

Brazil (Winter)

Ukraine

U.S.

Planting

Harvest

7


En Brasil, la cosecha de invierno representa más del 70% y la exportación es su principal destino

Corn Market85%

82%

73%

75%

78%

75%

71%

68%

66%

61%

61%

46%

42%

40%

36%

39%

31%

33%

26%

25%

27%

25

%

22% 2

5% 2

9% 3

2%

34%

39

%

39

% 54% 58%

60

%

64%

61%

69%

67%

74%

75%

42,2

90

35,2

67

47,4

11

42,1

29

35,0

07

42,5

15

51,3

70

58,6

52

51,0

04

56,0

18

57

,40

7 7

2,9

80

81,5

06

80,0

52

84,6

73

66,5

31

97,8

43

80,7

10

100

,04

3

102

,33

7

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4

04/0

5

05/0

6

06/0

7

07/0

8

08/0

9

09/1

0

10/1

1

11/1

2

12/1

3

13/1

4

14/1

5

15/1

6

16/1

7

17/1

8

18/1

9

19/2

0

Corn production – Summer and Winter Crop (‘000 mt)

Source: Conab

Summer corn

Winter corn

Winter Corn production by state (‘000 mt)

Source: Conab

Fcst = 73.5M mt(-0.7M mt MoM)

Mainly in Center West + Paraná

8


En el segundo semestre del año es el boom de exportaciones, con la disponibilidad del maíz de invierno

Corn Market

Market predicts increase in ethanol use and animal use that seams overestimated

Brazilian Corn S&D – 19/20 Breakdown (‘000 ton)

Source: Safras & Mercado, Conab, MDIC, ED&F MCM

Summer: Feb/20 – May/20 Winter: Jun/20 – Jan/21

6.6M tonsDespite recent

Conab’s revision our

reading is for an

overestimated use of

corn for ethanol

Only 1.2M tonsexported in June and

beginning of July

~30% harvested

by July 13th 24.0

9


Sin embargo, las exportaciones están en modo de espera

Corn Market

Line-up is getting higher, but is still below the multi-year highs seen in 2019

Corn Monthly Exports ('000 tons)Port line-up, volumes still reduced ('000 ton)

Source: MDICSource: Williams

10-Jul-19 10-Jul-20 Var.

Itacoatiara 232 156 -33%

Santana - - -

Santarém 608 401 -34%

Vila do Conde 843 941 12%

Itaqui 367 386 5%

Barra dos Coqueiros - - -

Aratu - - -

Ilheus - - -

Tubarão 341 - -100%

Santos 1,732 2,341 35%

Paranaguá 1,315 435 -67%

Imbituba 267 195 -27%

São Francisco do Sul 373 - -100%

Rio Grande - - -

6,078 4,854 -20%

Line-up ('000 ton)

Total

Port

Corn - Jul

N

NE

SE

S

10


Exportaciones de Brasil

11


Por otro lado, las primas de exportación indican fuerte demanda

Corn Market

Strong premium post-harvest (Aug and Sep)

Export Premium in Paranaguá for August (c/bu)

Source: Ary Oleofar, Bloomberg

Export Premium in Paranaguá for September (c/bu)

Source: Ary Oleofar, Bloomberg

12


Spot fortalecido nuevamente ante la devaluación del real y la demanda

Corn Market

Cash Prices Spot – Brazil (BRL/bag)

Source: Refinitiv, ESALQ

BMF

North of Paraná

Rio Verde, GO

Sorriso, MT

13


21%

4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A M J J A S O N

5Y Max/Min 5Y Avg 18/19 19/20

94%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A M J J A S

3Y Max/Min 3Y Avg 18/19 19/20

La cosecha está retrasando las exportaciones

Corn Market

Center-South harvest

at 32% (vs 48% in 18/19)

Winter corn harvest in Mato Grosso (% of area)

Source: IMEA

Winter corn harvest in Paraná (% of area)

Source: Deral

Source: Safras

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Y la comercialización de productores locales indica que un buen porcentaje ya está vendido

Corn Market

77%

27%

87%

41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

J M S J M S J M S

5Y Max/Min 5Y Avg 18/19 19/20 20/21

Mato Grosso farmer selling until July (%)Source: IMEA

In face of high prices in BRL, farmers had no problem fixing

15


La cosecha de Argentina está llegando a su fin. Cómo va el ritmo de exportación?

Corn Market




Argentina

Brazil (Summer)

Brazil (Winter)

Ukraine

U.S.

Planting

Harvest

16


Cosecha en Argentina adelantada respecto a los últimos años, 10 puntos vs. 2019

Corn Market

Argentina - Corn Harvest Progress (%)Source: Bolsa de Cereales; Bloomberg

2020

Crop is forecasted close to historical record at 50M mt

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

M J S D M J S D M

5Y Max/Min

5Y Avg

18/19

19/20

Ventas de productores a exportadores y exportaciones; ambas por encima del promedio

Corn Market

Argentine Accumulated Sales to Exporters (‘000 mt)

Source: Agriculture Ministry of Argentina

US Corn Export Sales - Total Commitments (‘000 mt)

Source: USDA

0,00

500,00

1.000,00

1.500,00

2.000,00

2.500,00

3.000,00

3.500,00

4.000,00

4.500,00

5.000,00


2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2020*

18


CBOT

BRA BASIS FLAT 15/7/2019 450

2019 -20 169,29 15/7/2020 330

2020 60 153,54

AR BASIS FLAT

2019 0 177,17

2020 50 149,61

USA BASIS FLAT

2019 60 200,79

2020 80 161,42

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Nueva campaña en foco: cultivo 20/21 en US

Corn Market




Argentina

Brazil (Summer)

Brazil (Winter)

Ukraine

U.S.

Planting

Harvest

20


29 25 21 3144 44 58 54 56 57

314 273 351 361 346 385 371 366 346 381

-279 -263 -293 -302 -299 -314 -314 -310 -301 -317

-39-19 -49 -47 -48 -58 -62 -58 -45 -55

8% 7%9%

13% 13%

16%14% 14%

16%18%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

Beginning Stocks Production Use Exports Imports S/U

Estados Unidos – Oferta & Demanda

Corn Market

US Corn - Supply & Demand (M mt)

Source: USDA

Despite acreage disappearance, huge production and growing S/U are expected for 20/21 crop

21


Las compras de China trajeron algo de optimismo al maíz estadounidense

Corn Market

US Corn Exp Sales – Commitments to China (‘000 mt)

Source: USDA

US Corn Export Sales - Total Commitments (‘000 mt)

Source: USDA

But overall, the export commitments are still somewhat distant from the USDA forecast

35,981

7,509

19/20 USDA as of Jul 2020: 45,090

52,826

60,400

47,419

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

Accumulated Exports - 19/20 Outstanding Sales - 19/20Commitments - 5Y AVG Commitments - 5Y MaxCommitments - 5Y Min

3,70 M tns

NEW CROP

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23


MAIZ CHINA vs EEUU

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Producción MAIZ CHINA

25


Producción MAIZ CHINA

26


27


Evolución USO MAIZ para ETANOL EEUU

28


El uso de la industria de etanol aumentó desde mínimos y los precios de DDGs retrocedieron

Corn Market

107,79

53,64

93,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

90,00

100,00

110,00

120,00

S-1

9

O-1

9

N-1

9

D-1

9

J-2

0

F-2

0

M-2

0

A-2

0

M-2

0

J-2

0

J-2

0

A-2

0

16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

Corn use for Fuel Ethanol Production (‘000 mt)

Source: EIA, USDA, ED&F Man

DDG (10% moisture) at Illinois plant (USD/mt)

Source: USDA, Bloomberg

Still the “lost” demand cannot be recovered

Covid-19

lockdown

29


Evolución PRODUCCIÓN/ STOCKS SEMANALES ETANOL

30


31


Pasando a la nueva campaña en Us, el reporte de stocks del 30 de Junio sacudió al mercado

Corn Market

CBOT Corn – First expiry (c/bu)

Source: CME, Bloomberg

Stocks or

Acreage?

But in the end prices were set at the same level as a month ago

32


ANALISIS TECNICO – Grafico de velas semanales Maiz

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ANALISIS TECNICO – Grafico de velas semanales Maíz

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Posición de los FONDOS (especulativos CHICAGO)

35


Posición de los FONDOS (especulativos CHICAGO)

36


Cosecha 20/21, próximamente…

37


2.1

6

2.1

9

2.4

8

2.3

7

2.2

9

2.6

0

2.5

7

2.3

7

2.3

9

77

.2

76

.8 83

.3

82

.7

83.5 90

.2

89

.2

76

.1 83

.5

83

.8

97

.3

95

.4

90

.6

88

.0 94.0

90

.2

88

.9

89

.7 97

.0

92

.0

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21(M)

20/21(J)

SX/CZ (Nov-Mar Avg) Soybean Area Corn Area

Qué pasó con el área?

Corn Market

Soy/Corn Ratio

Source: Bloomberg, CME

84.8

US Acreage (M ac)

Source: USDA, CME

Area migration

from corn to soy

was expected

Acreage below expectations. It is speculated that Prevented Planting is the reason

Est.:

95.4

38


RATIO SOJA/MAIZ

39


La seca comienza a extenderse en el Midwest

Corn Market

US Drought MonitorSource: USDA, NOAA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

40


Evolución condición de los cultivos EEUU

41


Fundamentos del mercado de MAIZ 20/21

Alcistas

Bajistas

Fundamentos

Alcistas

China está comprandole a US

Recuperación actividad Económica 2020/21

Condiciones Climáticas, definición COSECHA EEUU + Ventas

Fundamentos

Bajistas

Stocks Récord de MAIZ en Estados Unidos.

Riesgo de “segunda ola” de contagios, curva de contagios en US.

Gran cosecha MAIZ en Brasil, competencia EEUU, Segundo semestre 2020.

Mercado de MAIZ

42


Even though every effort has been made to guarantee the accuracy of facts here disclosed, this report reflects

simply the views and opinion of the author.

All pricing is indicative and all estimates and opinions included in this document are as of the date of the document and may

be subject to change without notice. E D & F Man Switzerland Limited does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and

you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.

This information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the designated recipient and therefore may not

be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the written consent of E D

& F Man Switzerland Limited and any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. If you are not the designated recipient,

you are requested to return this document immediately and to delete all copies.

E D & F Man Switzerland Limited does not represent or warrant the accuracy of, and will not be responsible for the

consequences of reliance upon any opinion or information contained herein or for any omission therefrom. Further

information is available at www.edfmancapital.com. E D & F Man Switzerland Limited, Technoparkstrasse 7, CH-8406

Winterthur, Switzerland, is a registered company in Switzerland, number 256.026.389

Pedro Schichi

Market Intelligence

Grains & Soybean Complex

[email protected]

Thais Italiani

Market Intelligence

[email protected]

43


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Presentación de MERCADO MAIZ JULIO 2020 Bolsa ......2020/07/28 · Fundamentos del mercado de MAIZ...

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