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Carbon dioxide: Hero or villain
Carbon dioxide: Hero or villain
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Ian PlimerIan Plimer
London, 30th November 2009London, 30th November 2009
Known Cyclesvariable tectonic143 million year galactic100,000 years orbital41,000 years orbital23,000 years orbital1,500 years solar210 years solar87 years solar22 years solar18.7 years lunar11 years solar
Constant cyclical climate changeConstant cyclical climate change
The next climate change: The future is written in the past
The next climate change: The future is written in the past
Pleistocene ice age 110,000 to 14,700 years ago
Bölling 14,700 to 13,900 years ago
Older Dryas 13,900 to 13,600 years ago
Allerød 13,600 to 12,900 years ago
Younger Dryas 12,900 to 11,600 years ago
Holocene warming 11,600 to 8,500 years ago
Egyptian cooling 8,500 to 8,000 years ago
Holocene Warming 8,000 to 5,600 years ago
Akkadian cooling 5,600 to 3,500 years ago
Minoan Warming 3,500 to 3,200 years ago
Bronze Age Cooling 3,200 to 2,500 years ago
Roman Warming 500 BC to 535 AD
Dark Ages 535 AD to 900 AD
Medieval Warming 900 AD to 1300 AD
Little Ice Age 1300 AD to 1850 AD
Modern Warming 1850 AD to ….
Climate change over timeClimate change over time
Is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented? Is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented?
400400 300300 200200 100100 00Time – Thousands of Years Before PresentTime – Thousands of Years Before Present
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)Te
mpe
ratu
re (
°C)
66
44
22
00
-2-2
-4-4
-6-6
-8-8
-10-10
-12-12
Today
Cooling with increasing CO2 Cooling with increasing CO2
TemperatureTemperature
Location, location, location…..Location, location, location…..
Urban heat island effectUrban heat island effect
18801880 19001900 19201920 19401940 2000200019601960 19801980 20202020
23.523.5
22.022.0
20.020.0
18.518.5
Ann
ual M
ean
Tem
pera
ture
(°F
)A
nnua
l Mea
nTe
mpe
ratu
re (
°F) Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W)
What is really measured?What is really measured?Te
mpe
ratu
re T
rend
per
Dec
ade
1940
-19
96 (
°C)
Tem
pera
ture
Tre
nd p
er D
ecad
e19
40 -
1996
(°C
)
0.80.8
0.70.7
0.60.6
0.40.4
0.30.3
0.20.2
0.10.1
00
-0.1-0.110,00010,000 100,000100,000 1,000,0001,000,000 10,000,00010,000,000
Population of CountryPopulation of Country
0.50.5
Reliability of surface measurementsReliability of surface measurements
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly
The 28 years of high quality satellite dataThe 28 years of high quality satellite data
Tem
pera
ture
Var
iati
on (
°C)
Tem
pera
ture
Var
iati
on (
°C)
19801980 19851985 19901990 20002000 2005200519951995
1.01.0
0.50.5
00
-0.5-0.5
1.01.0
0.50.5
00
-0.5-0.5
1.01.0
0.50.5
00
-0.5-0.5
Southern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
GlobalGlobal
Northern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere
Models for atmospheric temperatureModels for atmospheric temperature
-7-7 -6-6 -5-5 -4-4 -3-3 -2-2 -1-1 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO 2 doubling (2xCO 2 -control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2 -control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)
1010
5050
100100
200200300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
GFDLGFDL1010
5050
100100
200200300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
NASA/NSIPPNASA/NSIPP
1010
5050
100100
200200300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
NASA/GEOS5NASA/GEOS51010
5050
100100
200200300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
SNUSNU
Radiosonde measurementsRadiosonde measurements
75°N75°N 75°S75°S45°N45°N 30°N30°N 15°N15°N EQEQ 45°S45°S30°S30°S15°S15°S
2525
5050
100100
200200
300300
500500700700
10001000
hPahPa
No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in realityNo “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality
2424
2020
1616
1212
88
44
KmKm
Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7ESource: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E
Sea level changeSea level change
TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)
-60-60 -30-30 00 3030 60 mm/yr60 mm/yr
1992-95Global average rise
= 4.6 mm/yr
1992-95Global average rise
= 4.6 mm/yr
1992-98Global average rise
= 1-4-3.1 mm/yr
1992-98Global average rise
= 1-4-3.1 mm/yr
We’ll all be roonedWe’ll all be roonedSe
a Le
vel (
mm
)Se
a Le
vel (
mm
)
20002000
15001500
10001000
00
500500
18801880 19001900 2000200019201920 19401940 19601960 19801980
Measurement of historic sea levelsMeasurement of historic sea levels
Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)
Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr
Port Adelaide Outer Harbour2.4mm/yr
Fort Denison 1.0mm/yr
Fremantle1.4mm/yr
Southern Oscillation Index
Smoothing of ice core CO2 data - why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm? Smoothing of ice core CO2 data - why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm?
1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement
CO2
(ppm
v)CO
2(p
pmv)
450450
400400
350350
300300
27027018101810 18501850 19001900 19501950 19701970
Ice core AntarcticaIce core Antarcticafrom 1958 Mauna Loafrom 1958 Mauna Loa CO 2 5 year averageCO2 5 year average
YearYear
Water: Main greenhouse gas & driver of CO2
Water: Main greenhouse gas & driver of CO2
100%100%
80%80%
60%60%
40%40%
20%20%
0%0%WaterVapourWaterVapour
CO2 CO2 MethaneMethane N2 ON2 O MiscGasesMisc
Gases
0.117%0.117% 0.066%0.066% 0.047%0.047% 0.047%0.047%
0.001%0.001% Man madeMan madeNaturalNatural
Doubling CO2 at 385ppm has no effect Doubling CO2 at 385ppm has no effect
Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppmAtmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)Te
mpe
ratu
re (
°C)
1.61.6
1.41.4
1.21.2
1.01.0
0.80.8
0.60.6
0.40.4
0.20.2
002020 4040 6060 8080 100100120120140140160160180180200200220220240240260260280280300300320320340340360360380380400400420420
The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide
Submarine volcanicitySubmarine volcanicity
Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815) Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges
10,000 km3/a of cooling water>85% Earth’s volcanoes)
Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815)Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges
10,000 km3/a of cooling water>85% Earth’s volcanoes)
Seafloor SpreadingSeafloor Spreading130°30’W130°30’W 130°00’W130°00’W
45°3
0’N
45°3
0’N
45°0
0’N
45°0
0’N
44°3
0’N
44°3
0’N
Megaplume 2
Megaplume 1
RecentEruptions
RecentEruptions
Greenland ice sheetGreenland ice sheet
3030 -30-3010102020 -20-2000 -10-101515 -15-1555 -5-5Time – Years Before PresentTime – Years Before Present
10001000 400400 200200 100100600600800800
YearYear19401940 19551955 19601960 198519851950195019451945 19651965 19601960 19751975 19801980
-30°-30°
-40°-40°
-32°-32°-34°-34°-36°-36°-38°-38°
-42°-42°
-29.5-29.5
-32-32
-30-30
-30.5-30.5
-31-31
-31.5-31.5
-32.5-32.5
d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 199410per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994)
Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yrGreenland ice sheet change in cm/yr
80°N80°N
75°N75°N
70°N70°N
65°N65°N
60°N60°N70°W70°W 60°W60°W 40°W40°W
20°W20°W
50°W50°W
80°W80°W
30°W30°W
5.4cm/yrincrease*5.4cm/yrincrease*
*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003*Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003
30°W30°W 30°E30°E0°0°
150°W150°W180°180° 150°E150°E
AmundsenSea
AmundsenSea
AntarcticPeninsula
AntarcticPeninsula
90°W90°W
60°E60°E60°W60°W
120°W120°W
2000 Km2000 Km
120°E120°E
Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice? NO! Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice? NO!
Antarctic Sea Ice TrendsAntarctic Sea Ice Trends
Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.
1.01.0
0.50.5
00
-0.5-0.5
-1.0-1.0
-1.5-1.5
YearYear
Source: National Snow and Ice data CentreSource: National Snow and Ice data Centre
19781978 19901990 20002000 20062006
KambIce Stream
KambIce Stream
…. going up!…. going up!
Antarctic Land Ice TrendsAntarctic Land Ice Trends…. going up over most
of the continent!…. going up over most
of the continent!
Temperature proxy Temperature proxy
H2 O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperatureH2 O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature
Thousands of Years AgoThousands of Years Ago
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)Te
mpe
ratu
re (
°C)
00
4422
-2-2-4-4-6-6-8-8
40040000 1001005050 300300250250200200150150 350350
1.5
0
0.5
1.0
Dus
t (p
pm)
CO2
(ppmv)
CO2
(ppmv)
280280
200200
240240260260
220220
Sunspot cyclelength
Sunspot cyclelength Temperature
anomalyTemperature
anomaly
CO2 concentrationCO2 concentration
Temperature, sunspots and CO2 Temperature, sunspots and CO2
18601860 2000200019001900 19201920 1980198019401940 1960196018801880
10.010.0
10.510.5
11.011.0
11.511.5
12.012.0Suns
pot
Cycl
e Le
ngth
(y)
Suns
pot
Cycl
e Le
ngth
(y)
Temperature A
nomaly (°C)
Temperature A
nomaly (°C)
0.30.3
0.20.2
0.10.1
00
-0.5-0.5
-0.4-0.4
-0.3-0.3
-0.2-0.2
-0.1-0.1
CO2
Conc
entr
atio
n (p
pm v
)CO
2Co
ncen
trat
ion
(ppm
v)
350350
340340
330330
320320
290290
300300
310310
YearYear
Calendar Years Before PresentCalendar Years Before Present
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)Te
mpe
ratu
re (
°C) -30-30
-20-20
-10-10
00
1010
202000 300300 500500 700700 11001100200200100100 400400 900900600600 10001000800800
Temperature proxyTemperature proxyCosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)
10,000BC10,000BC 4,000BC4,000BC 1AD1AD6,000BC6,000BC8,000BC8,000BC 2,000BC2,000BC 2000AD2000AD
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
00
ModernMaximum
ModernMaximum
MaunderMinimumMaunderMinimum
SpörerMinimum
SpörerMinimum Oort
MinimumOort
Minimum
WolfMinimum
WolfMinimum
MedievalMaximumMedievalMaximum
DaltonMinimum
DaltonMinimum
It’s easy to stop climate change - All we have to do is: It’s easy to stop climate change - All we have to do is:
STOP bacteria doing what bacteria doSTOP ocean currents changingSTOP plate tectonics and continent movementSTOP orbital changes to Earth
STOP variations in energy released from SunSTOP orbit of Solar System in GalaxySTOP supernoval eruptions
STOP bacteria doing what bacteria doSTOP ocean currents changingSTOP plate tectonics and continent movementSTOP orbital changes to Earth
STOP variations in energy released from SunSTOP orbit of Solar System in GalaxySTOP supernoval eruptions
When we’ve stopped these natural processes, if human-induced then:
PERSUADE China and India to stay poor
When we’ve stopped these natural processes, if human-induced then:
PERSUADE China and India to stay poor
A few little problemsA few little problems
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Five of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)
SOLUTION
Fraud
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Five of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)
SOLUTION
Fraud