PTDConsulta-veWorkshopon

UniversalServiceStrategy,EstablishingtheUniversalServiceFund,Design&Implementa-onofpilotprojects

SonjaOestmann&AndrewDymond

NOVOTELHOTELYANGON

16February2017

2

Content

PART1

•  BriefintroducJontoUniversalService•  Marketupdate

•  Unservedtownships:GISanalysisandresultsPART2

•  OpJonsforUSFestablishment

•  Universalservicestrategy:IniJalideasforUSFprograms

3

WhatisaUniversalService?

UniversalServiceisapolicygoalthatintendstoensurethat

allpeopleinacountryhaveaccess

andareabletousetelecommunicaJonsservices,

inparJcularforpeoplelivinginruralandremotepartsofthecountryandpoorerhouseholds

4

5

Generallydigitalskillsusingsmartphonesarelow,forexampleonly22%cansearchforinformaJonorothercontentontheInternet(LirneAsia/MIDO2016)

Access Usage Benefits

Infrastructure Capacity Content&applicaJons

6

SpecificscopeofUniversalService

•  ChapterXVoftheTelecommunicaJonsLaw

•  ProvidingbasictelecommunicaJonsnecessiJesanywhereforpublicinterest

•  EnablingavailabilityandwideruseoftelecommunicaJonsservices

•  UniversalServicedefinitonandbasictelecom§  Mobilevoiceservices§  WirelessbroadbandInternetserviceswithmin.speed(e.g.,3-5MBps)§  Enablingwiderusethroughawarenessraising&capacitybuilding

7

WhyisaUniversalServicestrategyneeded?

•  Commercialtelecomoperatorscannotreachallpeopleinacountry–typicallybetween5-10%willbeleewithoutservice

•  AUniversalServicepolicyensuresthesepeoplegetserved,bothwithvoiceandbroadbandInternet

8

Increasing&acceleraJngVoiceandInternetbroadbandprovision

Morepeoplehaveaccesstoservices&applicaJons,aswellasthecapacitytousethem

CreaJngopportuniJesforbotheconomic&socialgrowth

UniversalServiceStrategyoutcomes

9

KeyObjecJvesofassignment

1.  DesigningMyanmar’sUniversalServiceStrategy

2.  DevelopingguidelinesforestablishingUniversalServiceFund(USF)anditsgovernanceandoperaJngprocedures

3.  ImplemenJngthestrategyinanumberofpilotareas

4.  Monitoring&evaluaJon

10

Universalserviceproject–expectedJmeline

UniversalServiceStrategy

GuidetoestablishUSFUSFOperaJngManual

•  DraeApril2017•  ConsultaJoninMay•  FinalJune2017

Pilotprojects

•  DraeDesignAugust2017•  FinalDesignSeptember2017•  BiddingperiodOct&Nov2017•  BidEvaluaJonDecember2017•  ContractnegoJaJonJan2018•  Startofimplementa-onFeb2018

ImplementaJonMonitoringEvaluaJon

•  ApproximatelyunJlJune2019

MARKETOVERVIEW&RESULTSFROMGISANALYSIS

12

Thetelecommarket•  Threemainmobileoperators

•  MPT,Telenor,Ooredoo•  4thentrantMNTC(Mytel)expectedsoon

•  TotalsubscriberSIMs49.7millioninNov2016•  Around95%penetraJonbutuniquesubscribers61%+•  53%+amongstruralusers•  83%householdswithatleastonephone

•  FastgrowthconJnuedfrom2015to2017•  Majorrolebythetowercompanies–almost13,000

towersnowinexistence•  Fibrecompaniesbuildingmajornetworks-currently

over18,000Kms*•  Highpercentageofsmartphones(78%)

•  CurrentpopulaJoncoverageover80%andwillreacharound94%+byMarch2019

Combinedoperator900MHzcoveragecommiXedbyQ12019

13

CurrenttrendsinpenetraJon

•  CurrentrapidgrowthtakingplaceinNorthern,EasternandWesternstates/regions

•  LeastcoveredChinandShanstateswillhave75%coverageat900MHzbyMarch2019

•  Mostareaswillbeservedbybothvoiceand3Gbroadbandservice - 50 100 150 200

NaypyitawYangon

MonMandalay

BagoKachin

Magway(Magwe)Sagaing

Tanintharyi(Tenasserim)Kayah

Ayeyarwady[Irrawaddy]Shan

Kayin(Karen)Rakhine(Arakan)

Chin

Totalpenetra-onper100JulycomparedtoDec2016

Dec-17 Jul-16

14

Thetowermarket•  Towerco'sareasignificantfactorinmarketgrowthtodateandexpectedtoextendtheirpresence

asoperatorsfulfilltheirexpansioncommitments

•  NeedformulJ-tenancywillbeanissueasthenetworksreachdeeperintorural,smallercommuniJesandlessdenselypopulatedareas

§  Greaterlevelofplannedpassiveand/oracJveRANsharingispredicted

•  SatelliteVSATtrunkedmicro-cellsandsmalllow-costtowerswillincreaseinnumberforremotemountainousareas

2500

1800

1250 1250300 100 [VALUE] 200 200 1000

3600

05001000150020002500300035004000

Towerownership2017

15

TheGISAnalysisandUSFprojectplanning

1.  SuperimposecombinedoperatorcoverageoveraccuratepopulaJonmapthataccountsforallvillagetracts

2.  Calculateoperatorcoverage,GapareasandunservedpopulaJons

3.  CreateGeo-referencedExcelbasedbusinessplanningtoolforeachTownship

4.  ResultisahighlevelcalculaJonofpercentagepopulaJoncoveredineachtownship

Combined900MHzCoverage

16

GIScoveragecalculaJonresultsState %Geog.Area

CoveredTotal

Popula-onPopula-oncovered

%Popula-oncovered

TotalTownships

Townshipswith<50%Popula-on

CoverageChin 40.1% 469,010 274,552 58.5% 9 4Shan(North) 54.7% 2,534,984 1,742,998 68.8% 24 7Shan(East) 46.5% 825,297 573,740 69.5% 10 2Shan(South) 52.7% 2,392,218 2,044,219 85.5% 21 4Kachin 39.4% 1,624,896 1,359,311 83.7% 18 6Kayah 52.2% 287,555 262,134 91.2% 7 2Kayin 56.9% 1,599,517 1,357,124 84.8% 7 0Rakhine 63.3% 3,153,958 2,956,615 93.7% 17 0Sagaing 68.2% 5,195,173 4,908,427 94.5% 37 4Taninthanyi 43.8% 1,455,338 1,194,078 82.0% 10 0BagoEast 72.8% 2,920,445 2,824,462 96.7% 14 0BagoWest 86.8% 1,985,575 1,963,547 98.9% 14 0Magway 91.0% 3,885,893 3,852,800 99.1% 25 0Mandalay 95.2% 6,098,506 6,070,438 99.5% 28 0Yangon 94.3% 7,562,429 7,535,160 99.6% 45 1NayPyiTaw 91.1% 1,155,749 1,151,699 99.6% 8 0Ayeyarwady 92.7% 6,254,480 6,238,964 99.8% 26 0Total 62.1% 51,491,407 48,377,144 94.0% 330 30

17

TheIntegratedGIS–ExcelModellingprocessfrominputdatatoprojectsandesJmatedsubsidies•  PopulaJonsbasedon2014Censuscanbeup-scaledto2017atperannumgrowthrate

•  PopulaJondistribuJonwithinallTownshipsviaWorldPopdataset

•  MobilecoveragemapsrequestedfromtheoperatorsforQ2/32016andforQ12019

GISSogware

Integratesalldataand

providesoutputtotheGapModel

Thendisplaysthe

results

ExcelSpreadsheet

TheAccess

GapFeasibilityModel

InputsfromCensusdata,ICTDemandSurvey,

OperatorsandPTD

ProjectStrategy

GapprojectsandesJmatedMaximum

SubsidiesforeachTownship

18

Thegeo-referencedsubsidyesJmaJonModel

DemandSide •  UnservedPopulaJonsfromtheGISanalysis

•  Affordability&Revenues•  BasedonCensusandICTdemanddata

Costside •  Distancesfromnearest

accesspointsandexisJngcoverage

•  Backbone&accesssystemunitcosts

•  Terrainfactorstoreflectlevelsofdifficulty

Financial/BusinessViability •  Commercialviabilityor

losspertownship•  Financialgap&subsidy

requirementtoachieveviability

•  Cost/benefitindicatorsperarea

Strategicanalysis •  Totalsubsidycosts•  PrioriJzehighneedand

“smartsubsidy”areas•  Targetareasbasedon

knownvillageclusters•  Developprogram&

project(s)•  RecommendfirstPilot

projectandsequencedprogram

19

TheSubsidy5yearBusinessModelsimplifiedUSFclosesthegapbetweenuseraffordabilityandoperator5yearrecoveryneed

5YearOPEX

5YearRevenuesì

CAPEX

Subsidy

Operator

USF

User

O&M,Fibre&Towercos

20

Marketgapsmodel:TheoreJcalframeworkforUniversalService

Hig

h in

com

e

hous

ehol

ds

Lo

w in

com

e

hous

ehol

ds

Current network reach

& access

100%

Geographical reach

USF Smart subsidy zone

True access gap

80%+

Commercialviable

95% Efficientmarket&licenceobliga-on

gap

85-90%

99%

62% 70%

RequiresongoingOPEXsupport

Viableaeersmartsubsidy

To2019

USFTarget

21

ModelassumpJonsFactor Assump-on

Revenueside

Na-onalGDPPercapita(WorldBank2016) US$1,300%ofGDPinhouseholdincomeinfinaldemand(householdexpenditure) 67%

%ofna-onalincomelevelassumedinremoteruralareasrural 50%%ofhouseholdincomespentontelecomsservices 2.5%Ruralhouseholdpenetra-on 83%ImpliedExpendperruralhousehold(slightlybelowICTbaselinestudy) MKK4,707ARPUassuming1.3SIMsperruralhousehold MKK3,621

Costside

CAPEXperBTS(electronicsandantennas,includeonemicrowavehop) $80,000OPEX(perannum)forPassiveinfrastructure(assumehighestcost) $2,400/monthBTScellcoverageradius(assumingflatterrain–seeterraincoefficient) 12KmTerrainCoefficient(reducesidealradiocoverage) 0.5–1.0%geog.landareatobecoveredtoreach90%+ofunservedpopula-ons 60-75%Operatorcostsforopera-ons,marke-ngandmaintenanceas%ofsales 35%

ViabilityCalcula-on

YearsforrecoveryofCAPEX 5%Viability=percentageofrevenuerequiredforCAPEXrecovery 0–100%

22

TerrainconsideraJonsonBTSrangeandtechnology

•  BTStypicalrange12Kmonflatterrain

•  Terraincoefficientreducesassumedcoverageradiusbyupto50%forhillyandmountainousareas

•  Increasesthecostofexpandingcoverageinmountainoustownships

•  Butmayalsoleadtouniquedesign,towerandnetworkdesignorsharingarrangements

•  InteleconesJmatesalsotookpopulaJonpocketsintoconsideraJon

23

ViabilityandsubsidyconsideraJonsCategory Viabil ity

FactorProjectDescrip-onandPriorityImplica-on

Category1 >100% •  Commerciallyviable.WillbeservedbyexisJngserviceproviderssoon.•  Nosubsidyneeded

Category2 75-100% •  Close to viable. Targeted commercially by operators soon without financialincenJve.

•  Maxsubsidylessthan25%ofCapex.•  USFProgramcouldaccelerateinvestment

Category3 50-75% •  Commerciallyunviablewithoutasubsidyintherangeof25-50%.•  GoodtargetforUSFProgram.

Category4 25-50% •  Unviable.Unlikelytobeservedwithoutsubsidyintherange50-75%.•  ShouldbetargetedforUSAFProgramsubsidy

Category5 0-25% •  Typically unviable without major subsidy, requiring more than 75% ofinvestment(Absolutecut-offforUSF15%).

•  MayalsorequireongoingoperaJngcostsubsidy.

24

SummaryofUSFProgramCost•  “Firstpass”costofexpandingnetworkto90%+populaJoninallTownships

§  Finalcoverageover99%ofcountrypopulaJon

•  Primarilyassumesrevenuesandcostsbasedonterrestrial§  SJllconsideringtheimpactofsatellitetrunkingtothemostremotesites

•  SpecialconsideraJongiventocostof3G§  Frequencies&bandwidthofthecorenetworkand“lasthop”microwavetonewBTSs§  ConcernaboutthecostofsitesthatwillneedtobeservedbysatelliteVSATtrunking

•  EsJmateofmax.expectedsubsidycostsassumingnositesbelow15%viability

Pop’ncoverage NoofTownships No.oftowers Totalsubsidiesprojected

Lessthan50% 30 33150to75% 27 18375to90% 41 205Above90% 93 131100% 139 -Total 330 850 US$25.4M

25

PilotAreas-interim

•  44areasbeyondQ12019commitments

•  PrioritytotownshipswithsubstanJaluncoveredpopulaJons

•  Mustalsobeviablewithsmartsubsidytocreateoperatorinterest§  Mostincategories3and4

•  RangeofsituaJons:testassumpJons§  Someoflowercoverageareasarenot

viableforanearlywin-win§  FurtherconsideraJonofassumpJons

and%subsidypriortofinalisaJon§  ReviewforpracJcality

•  ExpectreducJoninnumber

26

Detailedcase–ChinState•  9Townships•  40%area,58.5%populaJoncovered

•  4townshipswithlessthan50%populaJoncoverage

•  Virtuallyallmountainous

•  6townshipsselectedaspotenJalpilotareas§  76newtowersorVSATlocaJons§  AtleastUS$4.1Msubsidies

27

Detailedcase:ShanState

•  55townships•  Approx.50%area

covered•  PopulaJoncovered

§  68-69%inE&N§  85%inSouth

•  13townshipswithlessthan50%coverage

•  22PotenJalpilotareas§  Newtowers§  US$4.5Msubsidies§  Expecttoreducethenumberconsiderably

28

Detailedcase–KachinState•  18Townships•  39.5%Areacovered•  83.7%populaJoncoverage•  6townshipswithlessthan50%coverage

•  4potenJalsmallpilotareas§  31newtowers§  US$1.3Msubsidies

29

Detailedcase–TaninthanyiRegion

•  10townships•  Nonewithlessthan50%populaJoncoverage§  Butsomeveryremoteareas

•  43.8%areacovered•  82%populaJoncovered•  3potenJalpilotareas

§  88newtowers§  AlmostUS$3.0M§  Verychallengingaccess–noroads

OPTIONSFORUSFESTABLISHMENT

31

WhatisaUniversalServiceFund(USF)?

•  Thereareover90countrieswithUSFs•  TheUSFprovidesthefinanceforprovidingservicetouncovered

areasandpeople

•  AUSFgetsmostlyfinancedfromasmallpercentageoftherevenueoftheoperatorsonanannualbasis.Butfundscanalsobereceivedfrom•  Government•  Donors•  SpectrumaucJons

•  AUSFisalsoaninsJtuJonalstructure–aspecialunitthatimplementstheuniversalservicestrategy

32

USFfunding•  MostUSFsarefunded

bylevyfromoperators

•  Over40%ofUSFscollectlessthan1%

•  AnaddiJonalthirdcollects1.5%orless

•  Soalmost75%ofUSF’scollect1.5%orless

•  ReasonwhysomeUSF’shavelowdisbursementrateisthattheycollecttoomuch

4

7

59

16

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Gov't only

Partly by gov't (subsidized)

Operators

Other

How is the UASF funded? (Multiple answers allowed)

16

13

5 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Levieslessthan1% Leviesbetween1%and1.5%

Leviesgreaterthan2% Variable

IfoperatorspayintoaUSF,whatisthepercentagelevy/year?

33

SpecificobjecJvesofUSF

USF

Collectfunds

Designprograms&projects

Financethoseprojects/disburse

MonitorimplementaJonEvaluateimpact

Consultstakeholdersthroughout

Publishresults

34

KeyUSFprinciples&Successfactors

•  PracJcal,feasiblestep-by-stepapproach

•  Focussingonprojectswithhighimpact

•  Goodgovernance&poliJcalsupport

•  IndustryparJcipaJon

•  UsingmostlycompeJJvetendering-open/transparentdistribuJonmechanisms

•  Providingsmartsubsidies

•  Ifpossible,avoidongoingsubsidies

•  DecisionsregardingUSFprogramsneedtobebasedondataanalysis&transparentmethodology

•  Designingprojectsinatechnologyneutralmanner

•  Transparency:Publishedannualaccounts&reports

•  ConsulJngwithstakeholders

•  SeparatespecificUSFbankaccount

35

CompeJJvebidding

•  InternaJonalbestpracJceisviacompeJJvetender

•  LargemajorityofUSFsusethismethod

•  RecentexamplesadvisedbyInteleconinclude:§  Uganda(since2001topresent)§  Malawi,Mozambique,BurkinaFaso§  Zambia§  Kenya(currently)§  Mongolia§  SaudiArabia§  Pakistan(broadbandmonitoring)

61%

26%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Competitive tender NO competitive tender Combination

Mechanism of disbursing USF funds

[Usuallyadvancedcountrieswithhighlypenetratedmarket]

36

TypicalchallengesofUSFs&programs

•  Capacity&stafftodesignUSFprojectsandmonitorimplementaJon

•  Disbursementoffunds–risksofcollecJngtoomuchandnotdisbursingit

•  Properplanning&JmelyimplementaJon–telecommarketmovesfast

•  Transparency–publishingannualreports,biddingresults,spendingandprojectoutcomes

37

USFGovernanceModels

Ministry

SingleDecision-maker

USFrisksbeingpoliJcized

Examples:India,Colombia

Inter-ministerialCouncil

Presidentappointed;includingRegulator&experts

“Topheavy”,possiblyslow

Examples:Chile,Morocco

Newagencyoroutsourced/Separatefund

manager

AlsohasBoard,incl.industry

representaJves

Highercost/efforttoestablish

Examples:Ghana,Canada,Pakistan

Regulatoryauthority

UsuallycombinedwithBoard

Usedmostoeen&canworkwell

Examples:Uganda,Peru,Kenya

38

Governance,accountability&transparency

USF’saremostoeengovernedundertheregulator

ü  Boardwithrepresenta7vesofgovernment,industry,consumerassociaJons,financialsector,development/non-Governmentinterests

ü  SpecialUnitinRegulator’sorganizaJon

ü  Separateaccoun-ng,bankaccount,repor-ng,transparency,etc.

8

15

41

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Privatecompany&Othercombined

Gov'tdepartment&ind.Gov'tagencycombined

Departmentoftheregulator?

39

USFgovernancestructure

Of49responsesinthebenchmarksurvey:•  35(73%)countrieshavetheir

USFsgovernedbyeitheraBoardoraCommi}ee/groupofMemberswiththepowertomakedecisions

•  14countries(27%)havetheirdecisionsmadethroughasinglepersononly,commonlyaDirector,ExecuJveOfficerorMinister

35

14

0

20

40

Board Director

Num

ber

of c

ount

ries

Mechanism

Mechanism to govern the USF

40

VarioustypesofUSFBoards

USF

ExecuJveBoards–focusonstrategicvision&approvalpowers

AdvisoryBoards-increasingstakeholder

input

Oversight&MonitoringBoards–increasing

accountability

41

ProposedUSFBoardinMyanmarfordiscussion

USFEXECUTIVEBoard

PTDDG/ChairmanMCRC

MOTCRepresentaJve NTLNominee Consumer

associaJon ??????

42

PrecedentselsewhereforindustryrepresentaJon

•  Pakistan:OperatorsareontheUSFCompany’sBoard

• Mongolia:SeveraloperatorsrepresentedontheMonitoringCommi}ee

•  Ghana:USFBoardofTrusteesincludesarepresentaJvefromeachmajortelecomoperator

•  Canada:USFoversightcommi}eeincludesrepresentaJonfromoperators

43

Financialmanagement

•  USFmoniesseparatedfromMOTCorregulatoryauthorityfinances

•  USFtohaveownbankaccountwithreputablebank•  SeparateUSFaccountsandindependentaudits•  AdministraJve&operaJonalexpensesshallrequireUSFBoard

approval–throughannualbudgetplans

•  USFfinances(payments,withdrawals&othertransacJons)shallsaJsfycountry’sfinancialpoliciesandregulaJons

44

Summary–whatisneededfromagoodinsJtuJonalUSFstructure??

ü Ensuringunbiaseddecisionsbasedonapproveddataanalysisandmethodology,andapprovedUSFscopeandstrategy

ü Ensuringpublictransparency–audiJng&annualreporJngü AccountabilityoffundcollecJon,disbursementsandprojects

ü EnsuringstakeholderconsultaJon(industry,government,civilssociety)andsupport

ü Ensuringthatfundsarewell-spentandhaveposiJveimpact

45

Lessonslearnedregardingroles

Ministry:Policy&supervision• High-levelUniversalServicepolicyse~ng• ApprovalofoperaJngmethodologyandhigh-levelstrategy,inconsultaJonwithPTD/regulator

• ApprovalofauditedannualUSFaccounts• Reviewandupdateofuniversalservicepolicy

USFmanagementunit:Freetoexecute• ExecuJonofapprovedstrategy,designdetailsofprogramsandprojects

• MonitoringofimplementaJon

INITIALUSFPROGRAMS/STRATEGY

47

PotenJalUniversalServicestrategy

47

Basedon•  DataandGISanalysis•  StakeholdersmeeJngs(industry,government,CSOs/NGOs)andconsultaJon

•  ReviewingexisJngICTiniJaJves•  InternaJonalexperience•  RuralfieldvisitsandinterviewsinChinandKachin

48

ElementsofpotenJalUniversalServicestrategy

69%

15%

10%

3%

1%

2%

Mobilevoice&broadbandservice

AssistschoolswithInternetconnecJvity

Internettraininge.g.,incommunitylibraries

Connectruralhospitals

SupportsoluJonsredisabiliJes

RelevantruralcontentpromoJon

49

KeyreasonsforschoolconnecJvityprogram

Ø ICTcapacitybuildinginschools–starJngyoung–hasthebiggestlong-termimpactoncountry’seconomy

Ø Intoday’sdigitalage&knowledgesociety,schoolconnecJvity&integraJngICTintoeducaJoncannotwaitanylonger

Ø AssistwithdemandsJmulaJonamongfutureusersofICT

50

Insights/examplefromfieldvisitinChinstate•  UShingHa:HeadmasterHighschoolMindat•  300high-schoolstudentsoutof1,300total

students•  Computerlabwith72computers,receivedin

2013,only30sJllfuncJoning•  Onlyoneteacheriscomputerliterateoutof18

highschoolteachers•  Schoolhas24helectricitybutnotenoughto

powercomputerlab,needtousetheirgenerator

•  Highfuelprices,tooexpensivetopowerthecomputerlab(K7,000for2hclass)

•  WeregivenInternetaccesstoo,neverworked•  Hedoesnotusecomputer,butusesmobile

Internet•  Onlyofficeadminusescomputer•  SchoolcouldpayK10,000-K15,000formonthly

Internet

51

FocusonInternet-readyhighschools

•  Sufficientpower

•  Computerlabortabletsforstudents/teachers

•  Trainedteachers•  Ongoingsupport•  ICTTeachingmaterial&plan

Internetbandwidth

Educa-onportal

Computerlab&

upgrades

ICTTeachertraining

ITHelpdesk

Lastmileconnec-vity

Keyelementsforsuccess•  Ecosystemfor

schoolconnecJvity

•  PartnershipwithMinistryofEducaJon

USF

Educa-onMinistry&thirdpar-es

53

ReasonforICTcapacitybuilding:Only23%ofdatausersreallyusetheInternetforinformaJonsearches(LirneAsia/MIDO)

54

•  TownshiphospitalinMatupi•  1doctorand1denJst,27healthcarestaff,

50beds•  Have2donateddesktopcomputers,both

notworking•  1laptopthatworks,thedoctorusesit•  HospitalhasnoInternet•  Have2landlinephonesbuttheydon’twork

forcallsoutsideofMatupi–hegoestotheWiFiInternetcaféintown

•  UsesVibertocommunicatewithChinstateadministraJonandMinistryofHealth

•  Sendstextandaphotooftypedreport•  Heuseshisownmoneyforthese

communicaJons,nobudget•  DepartmentofHealthInformaJonSystem

–2personsa}endedatraining,butcan’tuse

55

Nextsteps

ByApril:

•  DraeUniversalServiceStrategy•  DraeGuideforestablishingUSF•  DraeOperaJngManualforUSF

InMay:

•  NextconsultaJonInJune:

•  Finalizeallthreedocuments

56

Thank you

Contact:SonjaOestmannsoestmann@inteleconresearch.com