Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production: 2002

David GranatsteinCenter for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Wenatchee, WA

Organic pears near Chelan, WA

Growth of Organic Food Sales

Projected $20 billion in sales by 2005

Source: Organic Trade Association

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Org

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Acreages of Main Organic Crops in WA 2002 Cert. Trans.

• Tree Fruit 10773 2186• Grapes 1410 298• Berries 380 114• Hay 4280 329• Pasture 3043 81• Grains 4110 70• Fallow 2368 88• Herbs 1982 5• Vegetables 9335 43

Total 39501 3381

The “Organic Divide”

WEST EASTCertified Acres 5656 (18%) 25,312 (82%)Transition Acres 80 (2%) 3,904 (98%)

# Growers 143 (34%) 276 (66%)

Ave. Acres/Grower 39.5 91.7

Washington Organic Tree Fruit Acreage* by County - 2001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Acr

es

Apple Pear Cherry

* certified + transition

Estimated World Organic Apple and Pear Acreage - 2001

Certified Acres

Apple Pear

U.S. 17,572 2,798

Europe 8,675 3,665

New Zealand 2,873 163

South America 1,385 932

Canada 800 60

Total 31,005 7,618

China, Turkey ??

Apple Pear Cherry All fruit WA 6540 1308 303 8436 CA 4529 842 179 8662 AZ 2800 -- 30 2830 CO 1535 100 133 1923 ID 503 -- -- 506 OR 350 500 25 1180 Others 1015 48 57 1198

Total US 17,272 2798 727 23,835

U.S. Organic Tree Fruit Acreage - 2001

Cert. Trans. TotalApples 8075 1786 9861Pears 1771 192 1963Cherries 501 184 685

Apricots 90 12 102Peaches 195 4 199Nectarines 78 3 81Plums 46 3 49Other 17 2 19 Total 10,773 2,186 12,959

Organic Tree Fruit Acreage in WA - 2002

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Are

a (a

c)

Certified Transition

Organic Apple Acreage in Washington State

Ala

r

Ph

ero

mo

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MD

Annual Changes in Organic Apple Acreage – Washington State

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Acr

es

Organic Orchard Acreage as a Percent of Total Washington Orchards

Apple Pear

1996 0.68 1.49

1997 0.96 1.68

1998 1.05 1.84

1999 1.36 1.87

2000 2.48 2.54

2001 3.90 5.27

2002 4.81 7.14

2002 (C+T) 5.87 7.92Based on 2001 USDA-National Agricultural Statistics for bearing acreage

WA Organic Apple Acreage by Variety 2002

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Red Delicious

Granny Smith

Gala

Golden Delicious

Fuji

Other

Braeburn

Cameo

Pink Lady

Golden Types

Acres

Certified Transitional

WA Organic Red Delicious Acreage

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Certified Transitional

WA Organic Apple Prices($ per box FOB)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

RedDelicious

GoldenDelicious

GrannySmith

Fuji Gala

$/bo

x FO

B

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

WA Organic Apple Prices($ per box FOB)

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Braeburn Jonagold Red Rome Cameo Pink Lady

$/b

ox

FO

B

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Recent Organic Apple Prices – Washington($/box FOB)

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

RedDelicious

GoldenDelicious

GrannySmith

Fuji Gala

$/b

ox

FO

B

'01-'02 to Nov15,'01 to Nov15,'02 Nov 1-15, '02

Price Trends

Org

Conv

Red Delicious

Golden Delicious

Org

Conv

$0

$10

$20

$30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

Borganic conventional

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

Conv

Org

Price Trends

Granny Smith

Braeburn

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Pri

ce $

/bo

x F

OB

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000P

rice

$/b

ox

FO

B

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

$0$10$20$30$40$50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/bo

x FO

B

organic conventional

Conv

Org

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

Borganic conventional

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

Org

Conv

Price Trends

Fuji

Gala

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/bo

x FO

B

organic conventional

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/bo

x FO

B

organic conventional

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/bo

x FO

B

organic conventional

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/bo

x FO

B

organic conventional

Org

Conv

Organic Pear and Stone Fruit Acreagein Washington State

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Acr

es

Pear Stonefruit

Organic Pear Acreage in Washington State

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Acr

es

Certified Transitional

WA Organic Pear Acreage by Variety 2002

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Anjou

Bosc

Bartlett

Asian

Red Anjou

Red Bartlett

Concord

Other

Acres

Certified Transitional

WA Organic Pear Prices ($/box FOB)

$0

$20

$40

$60

Bartlett Red Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc

$/bo

x F

OB

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Price Trends$0

$10$20$30$40$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/bo

x F

OB

organic conventional

Bartlett

$0$10$20$30$40$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001$/

box

FO

B

organic conventional

D’Anjou

$0$10$20$30$40$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

$0$10$20$30$40$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

Org

Conv

Price Trends

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

$/b

ox

FO

B

organic conventional

Bosc$0

$10$20

$30$40$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/bo

x F

OB

organic conventional

Washington Organic Soft Fruit Acreage 2002

0 200 400 600 800

Apricot

Plums

Nectarines

Peach

Cherry

Pluot

Acres

Certified Transitional

WA Organic Cherry Acreage

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Acr

es

Certified Transitional

Challenges

• NOP implementation

• Lack of international harmonization – export barriers

• Retail pricing – U.S. vs. Switzerland

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Dollars

Organic Fuji

Grower Packer Trucker Retail profit

Grower Packer Trucker Retail profit

Fuji .225 .175 .11 .44

.45 .20 .15 .10 1.09

Broker

Estimated Food Sector Share of the Apple Price

Retail MarkupFuji 86%Org. Fuji 120%

Farm Share of Retail PriceFuji 23%Org. Fuji 23%

$1.99/lb

$0.95/lb

• Food quality differences – taste, storability, nutrition, nutraceuticals

• Combine “organic” with other ecolabels

• US Farm Bill – Conservation Security Program payments for stewardship

Opportunities for Organic Tree Fruit