Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships21-24 February 2005Developing Infrastructure And Validating CarbonSequestration TechnologiesJohn LitynskiEnvironmental Projects Division
Presented at: USDA Symposium on Greenhouse Gasesand Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry
Drivers
Renewables 7%98 QuadsFossil fuels provide 86% of energy20022025136 QuadsBy 2020, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 87%Coal23%Nuclear 8%Renewables 6%Oil 39%Gas24%Coal23%Nuclear 6%Oil 40%Gas24%+ 40%Source: AEO 2004Fossil Energy Americas Energy Foundation
Speculative GHG Stabilization Scenario to Meet Goals of the Global Climate Change Initiative
Gt CO2 eq / yearBusiness As UsualU.S. emissions stabilization at 2001 levelGap:5.3 GtCO2 / yrNETL/ARI/Energetics 2004
Other Potential DriversFederal Policy Senate bills introducedMcCain Lieberman Mandatory cap and tradeHagle Voluntary reduction, tax incentivesState policy both mandatory and voluntaryOver 25 states drafted and/or passed GHG legislationNE (RGGI) States and CA most aggressive1605(b) GHG Voluntary RegistryGHG Exchange MarketsOverseas Markets (Kyoto)U.S. Voluntary Markets Chicago Climate Exchange
Part of the Solution
Large Potential Worldwide Storage Capacity200,000Storage OptionDeepOceanDeepSalineFormationsDepletedOil & GasReservoirsCoalSeamsTerrestrialCapacity (GtC)AnnualWorldEmissionsStorage Options: IEA Technical Review (TR4), March 23, 2004Carbon Capture & Sequestration Program @MITWorld Emissions: DOE/EIA, International Energy Outlook 2003, Table A106.5GigatonsPotential Capacity Range
Sequestration Enables StabilizationCould Account For > 60% of Gap in 2050DOE/FE/NETL Analysis 2004Efficiency and RenewablesForestation and AgricultureNon-CO2 GHGsCO2 Capture and StorageH2 w/ sequestrationGt CO2 eq / yearAgriculture Significant Role in 2012 (~30%) Smaller role in 2050 (~3%)Bridge to Technology
Chart2
00000
41.96076247592.8888888889113.666666666757.86607561030
1179.9691107461227.3333333333429533.651462333791.6666666667
2109.7944670193183.33333333336601783.7647377953550
Efficiency and Renewables
Forestation and Agriculture
Non-CO2 GHGs
CO2 capture and storage
Hydrogen w/ sequestration
US
U.S. GHG Emissions
EMISSIONS STABILIAZATION CASE
Figure --->>>
Reference Case ScenarioEmissions Stabilization ScenarioRefStab2002
19906,26662661,709
Totp-level metrics199020012012202520501990200120122025205020017,04470441,921
Population (millions over 16)191.6215.4239.1274.3318.6191.6215.4239.1274.3318.620128,39080842,203
GDP (B$1996$/yr)6,4389,21512,90618,52037,0406,4389,21512,90618,52037,040202510,23677741,818parasitic load20%
GDP per capita (thousand $/person)33.642.854.067.5116.3344354.067.5116.3205012,32670391,184
Total GHG emissions (MMmtC/yr)1,7091,9212,2882,7923,6371,7091,9212,2052,1201,920
Carbon Intensity (tC/MM$)265208.517715198265208.5170.811452
GHG emissions, MMmtC/yr
Transportation432507638785922432507638664683
Electricity, coal438507607727814438507593499237
Electricity, CC2047698912120476878103
Electrciity, CT34434857443443485740emissions reduction90%
Total from Electricity492597723873980492597709634380
Other energy use435447483562680435447470462474year 2000 use of CO2 for domestic enhanced oil recovery operations8.2
Total CO2 from energy1,3591,5521,8442,2212,5821,3591,5521,8171,7601,538Proposed amount of CO2 storage geologic formations in 2050 under the atmospheric stabilization scenario772.0
Terrestrial offsets0.00.00.0(25)(62)(50)
Hydrogen0.00.00.00.0(25)(150)
Non-energy CO227364046602736403942
Total CO21,3861,5881,8842,2672,6421,3861,5881,8321,7121,380
Non-CO2 GHGs323333404525720323333373408540
Total GHG1,7091,9212,2882,7923,3621,7091,9212,2052,1201,920
5133.3333333333
Assumed annual growth in GDP post 20252.2%Reduction in CO2 from other energy use post 2012 under A.S.0%12%20%2001201220252050
Assumed annual red. in carbon intensity post 20251.7%Red. In non-energy CO2. post 20010%15%30%Emissions (MMmtC/yr)ref case1,9212,2882,7923,362
20021,9212,2052,1201,920
20040.00.00.00.0
GCCI red18.1%reduction in GHG intensity 2001-2012carbon intensity (kgC/GDP)ref case20817715198
U.S. Sources of Emissions Reduction2012 gap83.6Gap A.S. - reference in 2012, MMmtC/yr20020.00.00.00.0
200420817111452
2004201220252050Table 6. CO2 captured from coal and natural gas fired power plants in 2050 under the atmospheric stabilization scenarioNatural gas$2,151$4,54914.47142156Rest of World7.5Rest of World9.5964.765
Terrestrial off-sets0256250Coal$2,726$7,58225.76532586Coal$3,825$5,68725.76560616
Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction031117180Total$2,726$532$586
Increased use of renewable power021839United States1United States0.4043.7358.5108.5
Improved efficiency of power plants096393Total$5,976$702$772
Reduced electricity cons. per GDP004451
Reduced travel per GDP0.001740
Improved efficiency of vehicles0.00104198
GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial0-0741542004201220252050
Sequestration applied to CO2 vents0123370Efficiency and Renewables0.042.01180.02109.8
Sequestration from power plants03113417Forestation and Agriculture0.092.9227.3183.3
Hydrogen w/ sequestration0.0025150Non-CO2 GHGs0.0113.7429.0660.0
19%22%34%CO2 capture and storage0.057.9533.71783.8
Total0.0846711,442Hydrogen w/ sequestration0.00.091.7550.0
Total0.0306.42461.65286.9
846711,442
30%9%3%
(0)0.00.0
2012
Terrestrial off-sets25
Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction31
Increased use of renewable power2
Improved efficiency of power plants9
Reduced electricity cons. per GDP0
Reduced travel per GDP0
Improved efficiency of vehicles0
GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial-0
Sequestration applied to CO2 vents12
Sequestration from power plants3
Hydrogen w/ sequestration0
2050
Terrestrial off-sets50
Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction180
Increased use of renewable power39
Improved efficiency of power plants93
Reduced electricity cons. per GDP51
Reduced travel per GDP40
Improved efficiency of vehicles198
GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial154
Sequestration applied to CO2 vents70
Sequestration from power plants417
Hydrogen w/ sequestration150
Atmospheric StabilizationReference Scenario
20010.16660795270.1666079527
20120.16204789810.16622890132.7%
20250.11788098040.158039620529.2%
20500.0526739210.132258778668.4%
2012
Reduced demand0
Increased Renewables2.25
Improved eff coal8.33
Improved eff NG0.86
Coal seq2.78
NG seq0.68
Total14.90
2025
Reduced demand44
Increased Renewables18
Improved eff coal59
Improved eff NG4
Coal seq105
NG seq8
Total239
2050
Reduced demand51
Increased Renewables39
Improved eff coal81
Improved eff NG12
Coal seq406
NG seq11
Total599
Marginal cost of coal and natural gas fired power plantsmarginal cost of power generation at carbon emissions cost, cents/kWh
Fuel cost from AEO 2004, table A1Fuel cost $/mmbtuheat rate (btu/kWh)050100220
2001coal17.79$/ton0.8710,3720.902.253.596.83
NG4.14$/Mcf4.067,5823.084.075.057.41
2025coal16.57$/ton0.817,9910.651.682.725.21
NG4.4$/Mcf4.327,6963.324.325.327.72
Coal heat content, million Btu per short ton20.511AEO 2003, table H1
natural gas heat content, Btu/scf1,019AEO 2003, table H1
Forecast for Natural Gas Weelhead price in 2020, $/scfForecast for Generation from Nuclear Power in 2020, BkWhCarbon Intensity of electricity supply in 2020, kgC/kWhCarbon emissions from electricity supply in 2020, MMmtC/yrElectricity generation in the U.S. in 2020 BkWhTotal U.S. Carbon emissions forecast for 2020, MMmtC/yr
AEO 20044.288160.155815.252682,055
AEO 20033.698070.150796.953092,083
AEO 20023.267020.146790.254302,088
AEO 20013.135740.146771.552942,041
AEO 20002.814270.159757.847571,979
AEO 19992.683590.155745.548171,975
12%11.8%4%44%
US
00
00
00
00
0
Ref
Stab
Year
U.S. GHG emissions, million metric tons of carbon
U.S. Emissions of GHGs under the Reference and Atmospheric Stabilization Scenarios
Elec supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
pdipietro:Data from U.S. census bureau
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from AEO 04Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are cacluations
pdipietro:the average growth rate forecast between 2012 and 2025 in the EIA assessment of S.139 equals 2.0%
pdipietro:the average annual rate of decrease between 2012 and 2025 in the EIA assessment of S.139 equals 1.4%
Reductions directly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program
Reductions indirectly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program
Reductions unrelated to carbon sequestration
Sequestration from power plants
Sequestration applied to CO2 vents
Hydrogen w/ sequestration
Improved efficiency of power plants
Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction
Terrestrial off-sets
Increased use of renewable power
Improved efficiency of vehicles
GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial
Reduced electricity cons. per GDP
Reduced travel per GDP
GHG Emissions Reduction Below Reference Case (MMmtC/yr)
Options indirectly and directly reliant upon Sequestration R&D dominate early GHG reductions
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012
Transportation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2050
Terrestrial
00
00
00
00
Reference Scenario
Atmospheric Stabilization
Average Carbon Intensity of Electricity Supply (kgC/kWh)
Emissions reduction in electricity supply are based on advanced technology
Non CO2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2012
Sources of Reduced GHG Emissions in the Electricity Supply Sector, 2012
CO2 vents
0
0
0
0
0
0
2050
Sources of Reduced GHG Emissions in the Electricity Supply Sector, 2050
Elasticity
0
0
0
0
0
0
2025
Sources of Reduced GHG Emissions in the Electricity Supply Sector, 2025
2001and25_ref
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Although the average carbon intensity of electricity generation does improve over time, it is overwhelmed by increased demand for electricity and overall emissions of GHGs increase steadily in the reference case forecast.
In the atmospheric stabilization scenario, net emissions growth is slowed in the near term, mostly through terrestrial offsets and reductions in emsisions of non-CO2 GHGs. In the longer term emissions are reduced to an absolute target of 1,250 MMmtC/yr.
These charts show how the "heavy lifting" shifts over the course of the 50-year scenario. At the outset terrestrial offsets and non-CO2 GHG mitigation do most of the work. By 2050 the load is split more evenly among a larger number of reduction sources. Hydrogen and sequestration are playing significant roles.
This chart looks specifically at the electricity supply sector. The key message here is that te reductions are achieved mostly by a significant reduction in carbon intensity - as oposed to a reduction in electicity service. The carbon intensity of electricity supply does not meet the GCCI goal of an 18% reduction in the carbon intensity of GDP by 2012, but if you consider that less electricity is used per GDP you can consider the scenario to be compatible with GCCI.
The average carbon intensity of electricity supply is reduced by 40% below the 2001 value by 2025 and 75% by 2050.
Similar to the pie charts above, these show the relative contribution of various soures to the total GHG emissions reduction in the electricity supply sector.
In 2012 increased renewables and improved efficiency of coal-fired power plants provide most of the emissions reduction. Sequestration is small but significant part.
By 2025 the load is spread more evenly among a number of sources. Sequestration increases significantly in importance.
By 2050 sequestration is the dominant source of GHG emissions reduction.
Byetween 2025 and 2050, increased use of renewables deceases as a share of the total emissions reduction. Electricity from non-hydro renewables is forecast to increase from 489 to 825. The problem is that the use of renewables also increases in the reference case so the delta is not as big.
This table shows forecasts for natural gas price and nuclear power generation contained anual energy outlook 2004 as well as the 5 previous versions of the AEO. The tables shows marked increase in the expected generation from nuclear power plants and the market price for natural gas. (The extra generation from nuclear power plants is not due to new plants but rather license extension, improved capacity factors, and uprating.) These two factors counterbalance each other and lead to a no improvement over the past 6 years in the long term forecast for the carbon intensity of U.S. electricity supply. Strategically this sets the stage for carbon sequestration. It is needed to change the long-term outlook for the carbon intensity of power generation.
12%
This figure provides the logic for the 2050 goal. The idea is that there will be an international agreement with some degree of sharing of the emissions reduction load among countries.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In 2050, under the WRE 550 ppm stabilization scenario, the total global GHG emissions are capped at 8.5 billion tons of carbon equivalent per year.
44%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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2025_seqref
In 2050, the global population will reach 10 bilion people. The U.S. population will be 400 million or 4%
U.S share under BAU
U.S share under 1 billion tc/yr stabilization goal
Population
GHG Emissions
Reductions directly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program
Reductions indirectly reliant on the Sequestration R&D Program
Reductions unrelated to carbon sequestration
.
Sequestration from power plants
Sequestration applied to CO2 vents
Hydrogen w/ sequestration
Improved efficiency of power plants
Non-CO2 GHG emissions reduction
Terrestrial off-sets
Increased use of renewable power
Improved efficiency of vehicles
GHG red in residential, commerical, and industrial
Reduced electricity cons. per GDP
Reduced travel per GDP
GHG Emissions Reduction Below Reference Case (MMmtC/yr)
GHG Emissions Reductions Come from Many Sources
0
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0
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0
0
Reductions rely directly on sequestration R&D
Reductions partially reliant on sequestration R&D
Reductions do not depend on Sequestration R&D, but do include power plant efficiency gains
Efficiency and Renewables
Forestation and Agriculture
Non-CO2 GHGs
CO2 capture and storage
Hydrogen w/ sequestration
GHG emissions reduction (MMmtC/yr)
2050-seqref
00
00
00
00
0
reference case GHG emissions scenario
GHG emissions stabilization at the 2001 level
by 2050 the gap equals 1,400 MMmtC/yr, a 40% reduction below the reference case
Ref
Stab
MMmtCeq/yr
2001_ref
00
00
00
00
0
consistent w/ AEO 2004
pdipietro:s.139, 2003
Reductions rely directly on sequestration R&D
Reductions partially reliant on sequestration R&D
Reductions do not depend on sequestration R&D, but do include power plant efficiency gains
Efficiency and Renewables
Forestation and Agriculture
Non-CO2 GHGs
CO2 capture and storage
Hydrogen w/ sequestration
GHG emissions reduction (MMmtCO2/yr)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
reference case GHG emissions scenario
GHG emissions stabilization at the 2001 level
by 2050 the gap equals 5,100 MMmtCO2/yr
Ref
Stab
U.S. GHG EmissionsMMmtCO2eq/yr
2025-ref
Electricity Supply
Reference case
2001201220252050
GDP, B$9,21512,90618,52037,040
kWh/$GDP0.3890.3420.2980.200
Total U.S. generation, BkWh3,5894,4105,5217,408
Table 2. Electricity Supply by Source in the Referece CaseTable A2.4 Electricity Supply by Source under the Atmospheric Stabilization ScenarioTable A2.3 Sources of Electricity Generation in 2025 Under the Reference Case and Atmospheric Stabilization Scenarios
20012025 reference2025 atmos. stabilization
Table 2. Electricity Supply by Source in the Referece CaseEmissions stabilization sceanrio
20012012202520502001201220252050
Hydro214304305305Hydro214304305305Hydro214305305
Non-hydro renewables49107160348Non-hydro renewables49114218493Non-hydro renewables49160218
Nuclear769803816816Nuclear769803816816Nuclear769816816
Coal1,8832,2652,9964,195Coal1,8832,2582,7983,862Coal1,8832,9962,798
Natural gas & petro6749301,2451,743Natural gas6749301,2451,743Natural gas6741,2451,245
Total3,5894,4105,5217,408Total3,5894,4105,3817,220Total3,5895,5215,381
2025 - 2050 Delta5,9392025-2050 delta1,563
coal emissions factor25.98mmtc/qbtucoal share post 2025 delta71%reduction in electricity demand under A.S.2.5%
natural gas emission factor14.47mmtc/qbturenew. share of post 202510%renew. share of post 202515%
diesel emissions factor19.95mmtc/qbtu
00
interpolated 2012 coal2000198interpolated 2012 coal1900
58
140
Table 3A. Efficiency Gaines and Emissions Impacts from Capital Stock Turnover in the Electricity Supply Sector
Reference Case Policy ScenarioAtmospheric Stabilization Scenario
With DOE Program (reference case)Without DOE programWith DOE program (emissions stab)without DOE program
Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMmtC/yr)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (MM$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMmtC/yr)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (B$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (B$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (B$/yr)
COAL
0.0008308932COAL2001pre-1969108.56.9658061%0%28.4%0.311810108.56.9658061%0%28.4%0.311810108.56.8457060.0%0%28.4%0.311780108.56.8457060.0%0%28.4%0.311780
COAL1970-89187.511.931,23075%0%35.2%0.253100187.511.931,23075%0%35.2%0.253100187.511.951,23275.0%0%35.2%0.253100187.511.951,23275.0%0%35.2%0.253100Pure efficiency for the reference case
COAL1990-0111.00.637275%0%39.0%0.2316011.00.637275%0%39.0%0.2316011.00.677780.0%0%39.0%0.2318011.00.677780.0%0%39.0%0.23180
COALTotal307.019.51,88270%0%33%0.2750700.00307.019.51,88270%0%33%0.2750700.00307.019.51,87970%0%33%0.26950600.00307.019.51,87970%0%33%0.26950600.00delta genemissions factorefficiency
COAL2012pre-19691018.4170179%0%28.4%0.3121901016.9057565%0%28.4%0.311790101.08828006097.4462070.0%0%28.4%0.311930101.08828006096.3853160.0%0%28.4%0.3116606940.08700.00000.0028.4%0.08
COAL1970-89187.513.541,39685%0%35.2%0.253520187.512.431,28178%0%35.2%0.253230187.513.541,39685.0%0%35.2%0.253520187.513.061,34782.0%0%35.2%0.253390delta6.810.3133.5%13960.21720900.32600.0035.2%0.22
COAL1990-0111.00.768790%0%39.0%0.2320011.00.677780%0%39.0%0.2318011.00.768790.0%0%39.0%0.2320011.00.728285.0%0%39.0%0.23190870.015870.01521770.3839.0%0.01
COAL2002-2012 (w/out seq)10.00.637990%0%42.7%0.2116045.92.6333082%0%42.7%0.2168017.71.0814090.0%0%44.0%0.2028035.92.1128390.0%0%45.7%0.19550790.015790.015790.0144.0%0.03
COAL2002-2012 (w/ seq)0.30.02290%23%32.9%90.0%0.030.06145.025.80.30.03282%35%27.8%90.0%0.030180.049.62.00.151690.0%20%35.2%90.0%0.030435.0125.12.00.171690.0%30%32.0%90.0%0.030470.0275.320.00020.00020.0044.0%0.00
COALTotal310232,265.083%33%0.27607126346232,265.275%34%0.26588150319232258.081%34%0.263593412533722225976%34%0.2565794275225833.5%225835.6%225839.1%34.1%
COAL2025pre-196998.16.7055965.0%0.0%28.4%0.31174098.17.9966677.5%0.0%28.4%0.31208000.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.310000.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.31003600.03700.00000.0028.4%0.0%
COAL1970-89187.513.541,39685.0%0.0%35.2%0.253520187.513.541,39685.0%0.0%35.2%0.253520187.013.511,39285.0%0.0%35.2%0.253510187.013.511,39285.0%0.0%35.2%0.253510198.190.3138.5%13960.17517570.22000.0035.2%17.5%
COAL1990-0111.00.768790.0%0.0%39.0%0.2320011.00.728285.0%0.0%39.0%0.2319011.00.728285.0%0.0%39.0%0.2319011.00.728285.0%0.0%39.0%0.23190870.012870.01218430.2639.0%1.1%
COAL2002-2012 (w/out seq)10.00.637990.0%0.0%42.7%0.2116045.92.7334285.0%0.0%42.7%0.2171017.71.0814090.0%0.0%44.0%0.2028035.92.1128390.0%0.0%45.7%0.19550790.012790.012790.0144.0%2.2%
COAL2002-2012 (w/seq)0.30.000.00.0%23.0%32.9%90.0%0.030045.00.00.30.000.00.0%35.0%27.8%90.0%0.030080.00.02.00.151690.0%20.0%35.2%90.0%0.030435.0125.12.00.171690.0%30.0%32.0%90.0%0.030470.0275.300.00000.00000.0044.0%0.2%
COAL2013-2025 (w/out seq)111.76.3488190.0%0.0%47.4%0.19165065.83.6751088.5%0.0%47.4%0.1995063.53.3550190.0%0.0%51.0%0.1787037.81.8229890.0%0.0%55.8%0.164708810.1498810.1498810.1551.0%9.1%
COAL2013-2025 (w/ seq)0.00.000.00.0%17.0%39.3%90.0%0.020030.00.00.00.000.00.0%25.0%35.6%90.0%0.020055.00.084.75.1966890.0%14.0%43.9%90.0%0.021312120.02428.975.64.6759690.0%22.0%43.5%90.0%0.021210935.03823.200.00000.00000.0051.0%12.2%
COALTotal418.628.03,00182%37%0.2472700408.628.72,99684%36%0.2574400365.924.02798.087%40%0.1784991252554349.323.02667.087%40%0.18248411340982,80338.5%2,80339.3%2,80341.7%42.4%
COALdifference from top level generation greater than 0.5%
COAL2050pre-196900.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.310000.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.310000.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.310000.000.00.0%0.0%28.4%0.3100-333-0.02500.00000.0028.4%0.0%
COAL1970-89100.07.2274585.0%0.0%35.2%0.251880100.07.2274585.0%0.0%35.2%0.2518800.00.000.00.0%0.0%35.2%0.25000.00.000.00.0%0.0%35.2%0.2500333.260.2547.4%7450.0684110.03700.0035.2%0.0%
COAL1990-0111.00.728285.0%0.0%39.0%0.2319011.00.728285.0%0.0%39.0%0.2319011.00.000.00.0%0.0%39.0%0.230011.00.000.00.0%0.0%39.0%0.2300820.008820.0084930.0539.0%0.0%
COAL2002-2012 (w/out seq)10.00.637990.0%0.0%42.7%0.2116045.92.8936290.0%0.0%42.7%0.2175017.71.0213285.0%0.0%44.0%0.2027035.92.0026785.0%0.0%45.7%0.19520790.009790.009790.0144.0%1.5%
COAL2002-2012 (w/seq)0.30.000.00.0%23.0%32.9%90.0%0.030045.00.00.30.000.00.0%35.0%27.8%90.0%0.030080.00.02.00.141585.0%20.0%35.2%90.0%0.030335.0118.12.00.161585.0%30.0%32.0%90.0%0.030470.0260.000.00000.00000.0044.0%0.2%
COAL2013-2025 (w/out seq)111.76.3488190.0%0.0%47.4%0.19165065.83.7351990.0%0.0%47.4%0.1997063.53.1647385.0%0.0%51.0%0.1782037.81.7228185.0%0.0%55.8%0.164508810.1088810.1088810.1151.0%6.2%
COAL2013-2025 (w/ seq)0.00.000.00.0%17.0%39.3%90.0%0.020030.00.00.00.000.00.0%25.0%35.6%90.0%0.020055.00.084.74.9163185.0%14.0%43.9%90.0%0.021311520.02294.075.64.4156385.0%22.0%43.5%90.0%0.021110335.03610.800.00000.00000.0051.0%8.3%
COAL2026-2050 (w/out seq)305.616.442,40990.0%0.0%50.0%0.184270315.316.962,48590.0%0.0%50.0%0.18441058.92.9547592.0%0.0%55.0%0.1677030.91.4224992.0%0.0%60.0%0.1537024090.31224090.31224090.3155.0%6.8%
COAL2026-2050 (w/ seq)0.00.000.00.0%12.0%44.0%90.0%0.020020.00.00.00.000.00.0%20.0%40.0%90.0%0.020040.00.0265.214.732,13792.0%10.0%49.5%90.0%0.023834410.03444.2280.015.102,25792.0%15.0%51.0%90.0%0.023935325.08824.900.00000.00000.0055.0%30.4%
COALTotal53931419589%46%0.198140053832419389%45%0.208190050327386288%49%0.061237462585647325363288%50%0.051184460126963,86248.0%3,86247.4%3,86247.9%53.4%
difference from top level generation greater than 0.5%
Table 3B. Efficiency Gaines and Emissions Impacts from Capital Stock Turnover in the Electricity Supply Sector
Reference Case ScenarioAtmospheric Stabilization Scenario
With DOE ProgramWithout DOE programWith DOE programwithout DOE program
Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (MM$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (MM$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (B$/yr)Capacity (GW)fuel used (Qbtu)Total Generation (BkWh)Capacity factorParasitic load from CO2 CaptureAverage efficiency (HHV)Percent of CO2 capturedUnit CO2 emissions (tC/kWh)Total CO2 emissions (MMtc)CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)Unit cost of CC&S ($/mtC)Total cost (B$/yr)
NATURAL GASPure efficiency for the A.S. case
NG2001CT1022.9024127%0%28%0.17843-11022.9024127%0%28%0.17843-11022.9024127%0%28%0.17843-11022.9024127%0%28%0.17843-1
NGCombined cycle65.53.2643075%0%45.0%0.1147065.53.2643075%0%45.0%0.1147065.53.2643075%0%45.0%0.11047065.53.2643075%0%45.0%0.110470
NGTotal/average168667290(1)0.0168667290(1)0.0168667290(1)0.0168667290(1)0.0
NG
NG2012CT142.33.2927422%0%28.4%0.17480142.33.2927422%0%28.4%0.17480142.33.2927422%0%28.4%0.17480142.33.2927422%0%28.4%0.1748028.4%8.4%
NGpre-200164.42.4832758%0%45.0%0.1136064.42.4832758%0%45.0%0.1136064.42.4832758%0%45.0%0.11036064.42.4832758%0%45.0%0.11036045.0%15.8%
NG2002-2012 (w/out seq)57.92.3133065%0%48.7%0.1033057.92.3133065%0%48.7%0.1033056.22.1832065%0%50.0%0.09932056.22.1132065%0%51.7%0.09531050.0%17.2%
NG2002-2012 (w/ seq)0.30.000.00%23%37.5%90.0%0.13004500.30.000.00%35%31.7%90.0%0.16008002.00.07845%20%40.0%90.0%0.0120.113530.65312326862.00.07845%30%36.2%90.0%0.0140.117067.850.0%0.4%
NGTotal/average264.98.1931.140%41.4%0.12116.90.00.0264.98.1931.140%41.4%0.12116.90.00.0264.98.0929.340%41.8%0.118115.2131264.98.0929.340%42.3%0.117114.2167.841.9%
NG
NG2025CT180.43.9534822%0%0.300.16557-0180.43.9534822%0%0.300.16557-0180.43.9534822%0%0.300.16557-0180.43.9534822%0%0.300.16557-030.0%8.4%
NGpre-200164.41.7022440%0%45.0%0.1125064.41.7022440%0%45.0%0.1125042.01.1214740%0%45.0%0.11016042.01.1214740%0%45.0%0.11016045.0%5.3%
NG2002-2012 (w/out seq)57.92.0328957%0%48.7%0.1029057.92.0328957%0%48.7%0.1029056.21.9128157%0%50.0%0.09928056.21.8528157%0%51.7%0.09527050.0%11.3%
NG2002-2012 (w/ seq)0.30.01157%23%37.5%90.0%0.13004500.30.02157%35%31.7%90.0%0.16008002.00.091057%20%40.0%90.0%0.012013538.82728947362.00.091057%30%36.2%90.0%0.014017085.850.0%0.4%
NG2013-2025 (w/out seq)67.22.4338365%0%53.7%0.0935067.22.4338365%0%53.7%0.0935065.72.3237465%0%55.0%0.09034030.01.0017165%0%58.1%0.08515055.0%16.5%
NG2013-2025 (w/ seq)0.00.000.00%17%44.6%90.0%0.11003000.00.000.00%25%40.3%90.0%0.120055015.00.628565%14%47.3%90.0%0.0101820160.471399372550.72.1728965%22%45.3%90.0%0.01132835991.255.0%3.8%
NGTotal/average370.210.11244.938%44.3%0.11146.60.00.0370.210.11244.938%44.3%0.11146.60.00.0361.310.01245.039%45.1%0.110135.88160361.310.21245.139%44.1%0.112118.128991.245.7%
NG
NG2050CT242.03.0538218%0%42.7%0.11644-0242.03.0538218%0%42.7%0.11644-0221.72.7935018%0%42.7%0.11640-0221.72.7935018%0%42.7%0.11640-042.7%8.6%
NGRemaining 2001 asset base0.00.000.00%0%45.0%0.11000.00.000.00%0%45.0%0.11000.00.000.00%0%45.0%0.110000.00.000.00%0%45.0%0.1100045.0%0.0%
NG2002-2012 (w/out seq)57.91.4220340%0%48.7%0.1021057.91.4220340%0%48.7%0.1021056.21.3419740%0%50.0%0.09919056.21.3019740%0%51.7%0.09519050.0%5.6%
NG2002-2012 (w/ seq)0.30.000.00%23%37.5%90.0%0.13004500.30.000.00%35%31.7%90.0%0.16008002.00.000.00%20%40.0%90.0%0.012003502.00.000.00%30%36.2%90.0%0.01400700.050.0%0.0%
NG2013-2025 (w/out seq)67.21.8729450%0%53.7%0.0927067.21.8729450%0%53.7%0.0927065.71.7928850%0%55.0%0.09026030.00.7713150%0%58.1%0.08511055.0%9.1%
NG2013-2025 (w/ seq)0.00.000.00%17%44.6%90.0%0.11003000.00.000.00%25%40.3%90.0%0.120055015.00.000.00%14%47.3%90.0%0.0100020050.71.6722250%22%45.3%90.0%0.01122235762.555.0%0.0%
NG2026-2050 (w/out seq)156.65.0786463%0%58.1%0.08730156.65.0786463%0%58.1%0.08730134.73.9074363%0%65.0%0.076560101.82.5656263%0%75.0%0.06637065.0%27.7%
NG2026-2050 (w/seq)0.00.000.00%20%46.5%90.0%0.11002000.00.000.00%20%46.5%90.0%0.110040030.00.9716663%10%58.5%90.0%0.00811310125.756403153250.91.5028163%15%63.8%90.0%0.00822025489.665.0%6.2%
NGTotal/average524111,74338%52.9%0.0931650.00.0524111,74338%52.9%0.0931650.00.0525111,74338%56.6%0.08714413126513111,74339%59.0%0.0841122049057.2%
Reference Case Policy Scenario
coalnatural gasVentsHydrogen
201220252,050201220252,050201220252,050201220252,050
ww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/out
parasitic load from seq23%35%17%25%12%20%23%35%17%25%20%20%
percent emissions captured90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%
Cost of capture ($/mtC avoided)458030552040458030552040
Total CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)0.60.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Total cost ($MM)25.849.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Carbon intensity (kgC/kWh, avg all coal gen)0.2680.2600.2420.2480.1940.1950.1190.1190.1110.1110.0930.093
Atmospheric Stabilization Scenario
coalnatural gasVentsHydrogentotal
201220252050201220252050201220252050201220252050201220252050
ww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outww/outCT carbon intensity calculationsNGCC capacity worksheet
parasitic load from seq20%30%14%22%10%15%20%30%14%22%10%15%2001201220252050Combustion turbine as a percent of total generation.
percent emissions captured90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%% NG100%100%100%100%
Cost of capture ($/mtC avoided)357020351025357020351025101571251015351025520% petro0%0%0%0%refstab
heat rate12,30012,00011,4008,00020016.7%6.7%
Total CO2 captured (MMmtC/yr)3.63.9125.0113.2462.5459.90.91.08.028.312.619.612.312.33333707000252515015016.817.2190.6199.1694.7699.1em intensity0.1780.1740.1650.11620126.2%6.2%
Total cost ($MM)1252752,5544,0985,85612,69631681609911264901231852283913486970025062575030002795283,1926,1067,08016,88220256.3%6.5%
Carbon intensity (kgC/kWh, avg all NG gen)0.2630.2560.1780.1820.0610.0510.1180.1170.1100.1120.0870.08420505.2%4.8%
Total Electricity Supply Sector Carbon Emissions
2001201220252050
Emissions, MMmtC/yrGeneration, BkWhAverage Carbon intensity, kgC/kWhEmissions, MMmtC/yrGeneration, BkWhAverage Carbon intensity, kWh/kgEmissions, MMmtC/yrGeneration, BkWhAverage Carbon intensity, kWh/kgEmissions, MMmtC/yrGeneration, BkWhAverage Carbon intensity, kWh/kg
referenceCoal5071,8820.2696072,2650.2687273,0010.2428144,1950.194
NGCC474300.110696570.106898970.0991211,3610.089
NG CT432410.178482740.171573480.165443820.116
Hydro0.02140.0000.02590.0000.03050.0000.03050.000
Non-hydro renewables0.0490.0000.01040.0000.01600.0000.03480.000
Nuclear0.07690.0000.07930.0000.08160.0000.08160.000
Total5973,5850.1677234,3520.1668735,5260.1589807,4070.132
Atmos. StabCoal5061,8790.2695932,2580.2634992,7980.1782373,8620.061
NGCC474300.110686550.103788970.0871031,3930.074
NG CT432410.178482740.171573480.165403500.116
Hydro0.02140.0000.02590.0000.03050.0000.03050.000
Non-hydro renewables0.0490.0000.01330.0000.02180.0000.04930.000
Nuclear0.07690.0000.07930.0000.08160.0000.08160.000
Total5963,5820.1667094,3720.1626345,3810.1183807,2190.053
0.06490.0532
Sources of Emissions Reductions0.0554
201220252050
Reduced demand0.044.350.5
Increased Renewables2.218.338.9
Improved eff NG0.94.112.2
Improved eff coal8.359.480.9Electricity Generation Efficiency Data Table
Coal seq2.8105.3405.6Documentheat rateefficiency
NG seq0.77.611.2
Total14.9239.0599.4EPRI TAG, 1993Exhibit 6. supercritical PC, avg. annual, base load9,70635.2%
EPRI, Evaluation of Innovative Fossil Fuel Power Plants with CO2 captureCase 7D, Table 5-167,98442.7%
14.9239599
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced coal, reference case, 20028,00042.7%
(0.0)0.00.0EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced coal, reference case, nth plant7,20047.4%
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced coal, high tech, 20028,00042.7%
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced coal, high tech, nth plant6,12055.8%
0.3120.3120.252
0.3300.3160.268EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced CC, reference case, 20027,00048.7%
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced CC, reference case, nth plant6,35053.7%
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced CC, high tech, 20027,00048.7%
EIA S.139, 2003table 5.3, advanced CC, high tech, nth plant5,87458.1%
CURC Roadmap, 20032020 goal for advanced coal-fired, low end of range6,82450.0%
CURC Roadmap, 20032020 goal for advanced coal-fired, low end of range5,68760.0%
HEET program plan2020 goal for natural gas-fired power plant4,54975.0%
Efficiency calc for pre-2001 PC asset base
Check table GHG emissions from electricty supply
200120122025Coal-fired power plant vintage data, GW of summer capacity
Modelcoal507607727before 19601960-19691970-1989after 1990total
NG/petro90117147Bituminous40,52249,792115,2239,318214,854
total597723873Sub-bituminous6,91310,27859,8531,58278,626
Lignite47348012,45930513,717
EIAcoal501601760Total47,90860,549187,53511,204307,197
NG/petro105123140percent of total35%61%4%
total606724900
Differencecoal66(33)% of total gen, adjusted assuming new plants have higher CF32%63%5%
NG/petro(15)(6)7
total(9)(0)(26)assumed vintage heatrate, Btu/kWh12,5009,7068,500
correspondng eff.27%35%40.1%
EIA, CO2coal18382203.52785.8Calculated avg weighted eff.32.9%
NG/petro384.6450.3513.2Average eff from EIA data32.9%
total2222.62653.83299
Program Performance delta
201220252050
w/programcoal
natural gas
w/out programcoal
natural gas
&L&D&R&F
pdipietro:EIA, Emissions of GHG in the U.S. 2001, table B1, year 2001 steam coal
pdipietro:AEO2003 Table A9 total of combined cycle for power only and CHP
pdipietro:0.5 is the combined cycle cummulative retirements in 2025, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from EIA S.139Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are calculations
pdipietro:EPRI TG 1993 CT aeo 25% load
pdipietro:asumed based on continuing trend of reduced electric intensity
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:EIA S.139, advanced coal, high tech 2002 - efficiency =42.7% see table cell w100
pdipietro:EIA analysis of S.139 advnaced coal high tech, nth planteff = 55.8% see table w100
pdipietro:2020 goal for coal PP efficiency in 2003 CURC roadmap, 50-60% see eff table cell w100
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:HEET goal for NGCC, see eff table at cell w100
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, reference case, 2002 = 48.7%. see eff table w100
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, reference case,nth plant = 53.7% see eff table w100
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC high tech, nth plant = 58.1%
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, high tech, 2002 = 48.7%
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, high tech, nth plant = 58.1%
pdipietro:AEO2003 Table A9 total of combined cycle for power only and CHP
pdipietro:0.5 is the combined cycle cummulative retirements in 2025, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
The section calculates the average carbon emissions factor and the average efficiency given the retirements. Used a pure average efficiency in calculating the emissions reduction of efficiency versus seq. etc.
pdipietro:EIA S.139, advanced coal, high tech 2002 - efficiency =42.7% see table cell w100
pdipietro:EIA analysis of S.139 advnaced coal high tech, nth planteff = 55.8% see table w100
pdipietro:2020 goal for coal PP efficiency in 2003 CURC roadmap, 50-60% see eff table cell w100
pdipietro:AEO2003 Table A9 total of combined cycle for power only and CHP
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, reference case, 2002 = 48.7%. see eff table w100
pdipietro:0.5 is the combined cycle cummulative retirements in 2025, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, reference case,nth plant = 53.7% see eff table w100
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC high tech, nth plant = 58.1%
pdipietro:AEO2003 Table A9 total of combined cycle for power only and CHP
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, high tech, 2002 = 48.7%
pdipietro:0.5 is the combined cycle cummulative retirements in 2025, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:EIA S.139 advanced CC, high tech, nth plant = 58.1%
pdipietro:cumm planned and unplanned addition for CC, AEO 2003, Table A9
pdipietro:HEET goal for NGCC, see eff table at cell w100
2050-ref
Reference Case
Transportation categoriesTravel IndicatorsEfficiency Indicators (miles/gallon)Energy Use (Qbtu)Fuel Emissions Factors (MMmtC/QBtu)CO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)
20022012202520502002201220252050200220122025205020022012202520502002201220252050
Light Duty Vehicles, VMT2,5043,1874,1734,847mpg19.719.720.93015.619.724.319.718.5018.7118.7118.71289368455368
Comercial Light Trucks, VMT6583114228mpg13.815.015.7180.60.70.91.618.5018.7118.7118.7111131729
Freight Trucks, VMT196255354708mpg66.06.574.15.36.812.619.9520.3120.3120.3182108138256Calculations for the contribution of various factors in the reduction of carbon emissions between the reference case and atmospheric stabilization scenarios.
Air, seat miles available9091,2041,5212,404SMpg54.861.267802.83.54.35.719.3319.6019.6019.60546984112
Other, ton miles traveled2,0602,4363,0336,066relative2.602.803.003.53.64.04.57.719.9520.3120.3120.31728191157
Total26.733.240.847.3507638785922201220252050
1,8612,3412,8803,381
Emissions Stabilization CaseTotal reductionImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorTotal reductionImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorTotal reductionImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factorImproved efficiency of travelreduced travel per GDPreduced emissions factor
Transportation categoriesTravel IndicatorsEfficiency Indicators (miles/gallon)Energy Use (Qbtu)Fuel Emissions Factors (MMmtC/QBtu)CO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)
20022012202520502002201220252050200220122025205020022012202520502002201220252050
Light Duty Vehicles2,5043,1874,0694,60519.719.7263715.619.719.015.018.5018.7118.7118.7128936835628100%0%0%0%100%0%0.00.000.09824%3%0%0.910.090.089.189.140.08725%5%0%0.830.170.072.6314.760.0
Comercial Light Trucks658311121413.815.017250.60.70.81.118.5018.7118.7118.711113152000%0%0%0%100%0%0.00.000.028%3%0%0.770.230.01.290.390.0939%6%0%0.870.130.08.221.270.0
Freight Trucks19625534566666.06.5104.15.36.68.319.9520.3120.3120.318210813516900%0%0%0%100%0%0.00.000.030%3%0%0.01.000.00.03.450.08843%6%0%0.880.120.076.9510.770.0
Air9091,2041,4832,26054.861.273952.83.53.84.519.3319.619.619.65469758800%0%0%0%100%0%0.00.000.099%3%0%0.780.220.06.931.930.02319%6%0%0.760.240.017.625.640.0
Other2,0602,4362,9575,7022.62.83.34.13.64.04.16.219.9520.3120.3120.3172818212600%0%0%0%100%0%0.00.000.098%3%0%0.770.230.07.032.110.03117%6%0%0.740.260.022.938.020.0
Total26.733.234.435.150763866468300.00.000.0121104.4317.020.0239198.3540.470.0
1,8612,3412,4342,505
Atmospheric Stabilization Scenario Assumptions:2012202520502002201220252050Emissions factors (MMtv/Qbtu)
Increased public transportation reduces light-duty vehicle travel0%2.5%5.0%18.5018.7118.7118.71LDV18.45
"Smart" systems reduce CLT, FT and air0%0.0%3.0%18.5018.7118.7118.71jet fuel19.33
Carbon incentives reduce all travel indicators0%2.5%3.0%19.9520.3120.3120.31distillate19.95
19.3319.619.619.6NG18.84
19.9520.3120.3120.31Sources of emissions reduction (MMmtC/yr)
2002201220252050
Efficiency improvement0.0104.43198.35
Reduced travel per GDP0.0017.0240.47
Reduced emissions coeficient0.00.00
00121239
Check: Difference from rows above0.00121239
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from EIA S.139Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are calculations
2025_AS
Terrestrial sequestration
Emissions reduction supply curve
Allowance price ($ per mtC eq)Supply of emissions reduction (MMmtC eq)
201220252050
1000
5$25.33$21.33$17.78
10574840
20736250
30847260
40948065
501018670
150151128100
200167142120
201220252050
Carbon allowance price, $/mtC52525
Emissions reductions, MMmtC/yr25.33333333336250
Cummulative reductions through 2050, MMmtC2,094
Annual Offsets, MMmtC/yrCummulative Offsets, MMmtC
2000
20010.00.0
20020.00.0
20030.00.0
20040.00.0
20053.23.2
20066.39.5
20079.519.0
200812.731.7
200915.847.5
201019.066.5
201122.288.7
201225.3114.0
201328.2142.2
201431.0173.1
201533.8206.9
201636.6243.5
201739.4283.0
201842.3325.2
201945.1370.3
202047.9418.2
202150.7468.9
202253.5522.5
202356.4578.8
202459.2638.0
202562.0700.0
202661.5761.5
202761.0822.6
202860.6883.1
202960.1943.2
203059.61,002.8
203159.11,061.9
203258.61,120.6
203358.21,178.7
203457.71,236.4
203557.21,293.6
203656.71,350.3
203756.21,406.6
203855.81,462.3
203955.31,517.6
204054.81,572.4
204154.31,626.7
204253.81,680.6
204353.41,733.9
204452.91,786.8
204552.41,839.2
204651.91,891.1
204751.41,942.6
204851.01,993.5
204950.52,044.0
205050.02,094.0
2025_AS
2012
2025
2050
Allowance price, $/mtC eq
Emissions reduction supply, MMmtCeq/yr
Supply curves for reduction of non-CO2 GHG emissions
2050_AS
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Reference case emissions, MMmtC eq /yr
201220252050
403.92525720
Emissions reduction supply curve
Allowance price ($ per mtC eq)Supply of emissions reduction (MMmtC eq)
201220252050
1314260
1314260
105585120
2073117180
3081126240
4089140300
5094147360
100104159400
150108166440
200109171480
201220252050
Carbon allowance price, $/mtC12525
Emissions reductions, MMmtC/yr31117180
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from EIA S.139Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are calculations
2050_AS
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
2012
2025
2050
Allowance price, $/mtC eq
Emissions reduction supply, MMmtCeq/yr
Supply curves for reduction of non-CO2 GHG emissions
CO2 Vents
2001201220252050
Natural gas processing0.01.87.416.1
Cement manufacture0.03.18.625.7
Ammonia production0.01.12.98.8
Steam reforming in an oil refinery0.01.02.75.6
Aluminum0.00.30.81.7
Ethanol manufacture0.00.51.22.9
Helium production04.599
Total0.012.332.669.7
Natural gas processing
Dry gas production, tcf/yr19.4522.19426.3635
Percent of CO2 in natural gas, average0.0250.0270.0460.05
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr7.49.218.626.8
Percent ot total captured0%20%40%60%
Captured CO2, MMmtC/yr0.01.87.416.1
Ammonia
Ammonia production, Mmtons/yr15.020.428.056.0
Industrial gross output5,4257,37510,12820255.9997861628
kg CO2 per kg ammonia0.960.960.960.96
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr3.935.347.3314.66
Percent ot total captured0%20%40%60%
Captured CO2, MMmtC/yr0.01.12.98.8
Cement
Cement production, million tons per year84114157314
kg Co2 per metric ton cement produced500500500500
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr11.515.621.442.8
Percent of total CO2 captured0%20%40%60%
Captured CO2, MMmtC/yr0.03.18.625.7
Ethanol
Qbtu of ethanol0.150.270.330.5
Qbtu of LDV15.6019.6619.0514.99
Ethanol as % of LDV1.0%1.4%1.7%3.3%
billion gallons of ethanol per year1.632.913.595.43
kg CO2 per gallon of ethanol3333
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr1.32.42.94.4
Percent available for capture0%20%40%65%
MMmtC/yr captured0.00.51.22.9
Aluminum
Primary Aluminum Production, MMmt/yr3.54.24.96.4
Energy-intensive GDP1,0861,3011,5382,000
metric ton CO2 per metric ton aluminum1.51.51.51.5
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr1.421.702.012.61
Percent available for capture0%20%40%65%
MMmtC/yr captured0.00.30.81.7
Steam reforming in oil refineries
H2 production, MMscfd3,2434,2615,7847,372
Refined petroleum products, MMbpd19.723.728.929.5
H2 per fuel, MMmtC/Qbtu165180200250
CO2 vent, scf CO2 per scf H20.260.260.260.26
Gross CO2 emissions, MMtC/yr3.84.96.78.5
Percent available for capture0%20%40%65%
MMmtC/yr captured0.01.02.75.6
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from EIA S.139Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are calculations
Red fields are user inputsBrown fields are data from EIA S.139Plum fields are data from other sourcesBlue fields are calculations
Electricity DemandNon-hydro Renewable Generation
20252012
constant6,850constant127constant106
Table A2.2 Elasticity of Demand for Electricityslope-200slope3.62slope0.81
CASEDateElectricity price (cents/kWh)Electricity demand, BkWhGDP, B$1996Fitted curveoff-set price, $/tCnon-hydro renewable gen, BkWhFitted curveoff-set price, $/tCnon-hydro renewable gen, BkWhFitted curve20102020
Date from EIA analysis of S.139Reference20256.705483189165,5100.01271270.0100.9106.096.6117.91
High natural gas price20257.25458188545,4100.01321270.0102.6106.097.69122.34
50% off-sets20259.14982188255,030174.0770757174.0254.0246.9182.13541.27
S.13920259.84841188104,890220.7826926220.7315.5284.8220.61694.98
HNG + S.139202510.34807187874,790214.01,005902214.0271.2279.3196.55569.77
No geo seq / No nuke202510.74744188214,710296.61,2021,201296.6323.0346.2229.98694.98
50 $/ton equivalent, 0.9 cents/kWh7.405,3702.5%25.021810.0114
00
00
00
00
00
00
Electricity cost (cents/kWh)
Electricity available to grid, BkWh
Figure A2.2 Cost/Supply curve for Electricity, 2025
BkWh20012025
0.00.000.00
262.90.000.00
263.00.000.00
464.30.000.00
464.40.000.00
1031.90.000.00
1032.00.110.00
1280.30.110.00
1280.40.110.10
1462.30.110.10
1462.40.180.10
1703.70.180.10
1703.80.230.10
1776.10.230.10
1776.20.250.10
1952.00.250.1
1952.10.250.1
2176.00.250.11
2176.10.250.16
2523.70.250.16
2523.80.250.19
3006.40.250.19
3006.50.310.19
3483.20.310.19
3483.30.310.23
3569.90.310.23
3570.00.310.25
3586.30.310.25
3586.40.000.25
4966.00.000.25
4966.10.000.31
5524.70.000.31
5524.80.000
The number in J13 is used to calculate the reduction in electricity demand under the Atmospheric Stabilization scenario.
I4 and I5 changed manually to fit the curve below.
GHG emissions allowance cost ($/ton)
Non-hydro renewable gen, BkWh
Figure A2.3 Cost/supply curve for non-hydro renewables, 2025
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q4 & Q5 are changed manually to fit the curve below.
The number in q13 is used to estimate the generation from non-hydro renewables in 2025 under the Atmospheric Stabilization scenario
GHG emissions allowance cost ($/ton)
Non-hydro renewable gen, BkWh
Figure A2.3 Cost/supply curve for non-hydro renewables, 2012
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q4 & Q5 are changed manually to fit the curve below.
The number in q13 is used to estimate the generation from non-hydro renewables in 2025 under the Atmospheric Stabilization scenario
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
Nuclear and renewables
Combined Cycle
2001
2025
CT
Average GHG Intensity (kgC/kWh)
2001 - 0.1712025 - 0.158 (8% Improvement)
--- post 2001 assets
Coal
pre-1970
1970-1990
1990-01
NG
2025
2001
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
BkWh2025 reference2025 A.S.
0.00.000
464.30.000
464.40.000
522.20.000.00
522.30.000.00
1280.30.000.00
1280.40.100.00
1338.20.100.00
1338.30.100.01
1433.60.0960.011
1433.70.0960.020
1952.00.0960.020
1952.10.1100.020
2176.00.1100.020
2176.10.1650.020
2117.00.1650.020
2117.10.1650.094
2523.70.1650.094
2523.80.1890.094
2771.80.1890.094
2771.90.1890.094
2919.00.1890.094
2919.10.1890.165
3266.60.1890.165
3266.70.1890.180
3483.20.1890.180
3483.30.2270.180
3569.90.2270.180
3570.00.2520.180
3906.90.2520.180
3907.00.2520.227
3988.80.2520.227
3988.90.2520.252
4966.00.2520.252
4966.10.3120.252
5381.20.3120.252
5381.30.3120.000
5381.20.3120.000
5381.30.3120.000
5381.40.3120.000
5524.70.3120.000
5524.80.0000.000
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
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00
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00
00
00
Reference
Atmospheric Stabilization
Natural gas and coal w/ seq
Natural gas and coal w/ seq
Natural gas and coal w/ seq.
N
Natural gas and coal w/ seq
New
CC
CC
CC
pre-1969
1970-89
New NG and coal power plants with CO2 capture
CT
coal
NG
Nuclear and Renewables
CO2 emissions from U.S. electricity supply are reduced from 788 MMmtC/yr in the reference case to 443 MMmtC/yr in the atmospheric stabiization scenario, a 43% reduction.
2025 reference
2025 A.S.
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure A2.4. reference case and stabilization scenarios, 2025
RefAS
BkWhkgC/kwhkgC/kwh
0.00.000
653.00.000
653.10.000
798.00.000
798.10.000
1469.00.000
1469.10.090
1614.00.090
1614.10.090.00844
1779.60.090.00844
1779.70.090.01791
3212.00.090.01791
3212.10.120.01791
3212.90.120.01791
3213.00.180.01791
3916.50.180.01791
3916.60.180.02033
4562.00.180.02033
4562.10.180.08285
5621.90.180.08285
5622.00.190.08285
5789.90.190.08285
5790.00.190.08285
5789.90.190.08285
5790.00.190.11576
6139.40.190.11576
6139.50.190.16117
6581.40.190.16117
6581.50.230.16117
6663.30.230.16117
6663.40.250.16117
6614.30.250.16117
6614.40.250.17984
7219.00.250.17984
7219.10.250.00000
7219.00.250.00000
7219.10.250.00000
7219.20.250
7407.90.250
7408.00.000
7407.90.000
7408.00.000
7408.00.000
7408.10.000
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Reference Case
NGCC w/wq
Atmospheric Stabilization
BY 2050, a combination of increased renewables, improved efficiency, and carbon capture and sequestration reduce the average carbon intensity of electricity generation by 60%, 0.05 versus 0.13 kg/kWh. Total GHG emissions are reduced from 943 to 361 MMtC/yr.
Coal w/seq
Nuclear and renewables
Nuclear and Renewables
NGCC w/seq
kgC/kwh
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure A2.6 Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation under the Reference Case and Atmospheric Stabilization Scenarios, 2050
BkWh generatedCO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
20012001
coal, pre-1969580180.80.312
coal, 1970-891,230310.00.252
coal, 1990-017216.40.227
CT24142.90.178
NG/petro CC43047.20.110
Nuclear7690.00.000
renew2630.00.000
total3,586597.40.167
2001
BkWhMMmtC
0.00.00
262.90.00
263.00.00
1031.90.00
1032.00.11
1462.30.11
1462.40.18
1703.70.18
1703.80.23
1776.10.23
1776.20.25
3006.40.25
3006.50.31
3586.30.31
3586.40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear and renewables
Combined cycle
U.S. Average, 0.17 kgC/kWh
CT
pre 1969
1970-1989
post 1990
Coal
NG
MMmtC
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure A2.1 Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation, 2001
BkWh generatedCO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
20252025
coal, pre-19695591740.312
coal, 1970-891,3963520.252
coal, 1990-0187200.227
coal, 2002-259591810.189
CT348570.165
CC pre 2001224250.110
CC post 2001672640.096
Nuclear8160.00.000
renew4640.00.000
Total5,5258730.158
2025
BkWhMMmtC
0.00.00
464.30.00
464.40.00
1280.30.00
1280.40.10
1952.00.10
1952.10.11
2176.00.11
2176.10.16
2523.70.16
2523.80.19
3483.20.19
3483.30.23
3569.90.23
3570.00.25
4966.00.25
4966.10.31
5524.70.31
5524.80
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear and renewables
Combined cycle
Coal
U.S. Average, 0.159 kgC/kWh
CT
Natural gas
MMmtC
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure 2. Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation, 2025
BkWh generatedCO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
20502050
coal, pre-19690.00.00.0000
coal, 1970-897451880.2520
coal, 1990-0182190.2273
coal, 2002-259591810.1887
coal, 2026-502,4094270.1773
CT100.1158
Natural gas1,7431650.0948
Nuclear8160.00.0000
renew6530.00.0000
Total7,4089800.1323
BkWhMMmtC
0.00.00
653.00.00
653.10.00
1469.00.00
1469.10.09
3212.00.09
3212.10.12
3212.90.12
3213.00.18
5621.90.18
5622.00.19
6581.40.19
6581.50.23
6663.30.23
6663.40.25
7407.90.25
7408.00.00
7407.90.00
7408.00.00
7408.00.00
7408.10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear and renewables
Natural gas
Coal
U.S. Average, 0.132 kgC/kWh
CT
MMmtC
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure 2. Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation, 2050
BkWh generatedCO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
20252025
coal, pre-19690.00.00.000
coal, 1970-891,3923510.252
coal, 1990-0182190.227
coal, post 2001 no seq6401150.180
CT348570.165
CC pre 20011470.00.000
CC post 2001 no seq655610.094
Coal seq683140.020
NG seq9510.011
Nuclear8160.00.000
renew5220.00.000
5,3816180.115
2025 A.S.
BkWhMMmtC
0.00.00
522.20.00
522.30.00
1338.20.00
1338.30.01
1433.60.01
1433.70.02
2117.00.02
2117.10.09
2771.80.09
2771.90.09
2919.00.09
2919.10.16
3266.60.16
3266.70.18
3906.90.18
3907.00.23
3988.80.23
3988.90.25
5381.20.25
5381.30.00
5381.20.00
5381.30.00
5381.40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nuclear and renewables
CC w/ seq
U.S. Average, 0.105 kgC/kWh
Coal w/ seq
CC
CT
post 2001 coal w/out seq
pre-2001 Coal
MMmtC
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure 2. Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation, 2025 Atmospheric Stabilization Scenario
BkWh generatedCO2 Emissions (MMmtC/yr)Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
20502050
coal, pre-19690.00.00.0000
coal, 1970-890.00.00.0000
coal, 1990-010.00.00.0000
coal, 2002-25 no seq6051090.1798
coal, 2026-50 no seq475770.1612
CT350400.1158
CC pre 20010.00.00.0000
CC post 2001 no seq1,2281020.0828
coal, 2002-25 seq645130.0203
coal, 2025-26 seq2,137380.0179
CC post 2001 seq16610.0084
Nuclear8160.00.0000
renew7980.00.0000
Total7,2193800.0527
2050 AS
BkWhMMmtC
0.00.0000
798.00.0000
798.10.0000
1614.00.0000
1614.10.0084
1779.60.0084
1779.70.0179
3916.50.0179
3916.60.0203
4562.00.0203
4562.10.0828
5789.90.0828
5790.00.0828** changed from zero
5789.90.0828
5790.00.1158
6139.40.1158
6139.50.1612
6614.30.1612
6614.40.1798
7219.00.1798
7219.10.0000
7219.00.0000
7219.10.0000
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Nuclear and renewables
CC w/ seq
Coal, 2002-25 no seq
U.S. Average, 0.035 kgC/kWh
Coal w/ seq
CC
CT
MMmtC
Cummulative Generation (BkWh)
Carbon Intensity (kgC/kWh)
Figure 2. Carbon Intensity of U.S. Electricity Generation, 2050 Atmospheric Stabilization Scenario
U.S. DOE/ Fossil Energy Sequestration ProgramBreak-throughConceptsNon-CO2 GHG Mitigation Separation & Capture of CO2Core R&DCarbon Sequestration LeadershipForum
Seven Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipsAwarded Sept 2003
Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships Developing Infrastructure for Wide Scale DeploymentBaseline region for sources and sinks(geologic and terrestrial)Create action plans for regulatory, liability, environmental, and outreach issuesEstablish monitoring and verification protocols
Assess benefits to regionValidating sequestration technology & infrastructurePhase 1 - design Phase 2 - testingThese partnerships - 4 to 10 across the country, each made up of private industry, universities, and state and local governments - will become the centerpiece of our sequestration program. They will help us determine the technologies, regulations, and infrastructure that are best suited for specific regions of the country.
Energy Secretary Spencer AbrahamNovember 21, 2002
Two-Phased ApproachPhase I (Characterization)7 Partnerships (40 states)6 considering terrestrial24 months (2003-2005)
Phase II (Field Validation Tests)$100 million 4 years (2005-2009)~$14.3 million DOE funding / projectApproximately 7 regions
Phase III 2009-2013 ??
Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipMontana State University - BozemanAgriculture, rangelands, and forestryConducting regional, aggregate analysis in support of policies for GHG reductionsAppropriate MMV technologiesAdvanced systems (NIR, LIBS)Carbon Accounting FrameworksC-Lock (Expand to WY, MT, and ID)National Carbon Offset CoalitionSource: SDSMT
Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipBattelle Memorial Institute / Ohio State UniversityEarly deployment options at low costNo-till Afforestation Conversion Grasslands Wetland RestorationBiophysical potential of increased C in soils, biomass and litterMRCSP region represents significant CO2 offset technical potentialTotal Annual C Accumulation: 39.1 MMTMRCSP region may offset 20% of CO2 emissions in region in Terrestrial SinksMRCSP 20 Year C Accumulation: 773 MMT
Source: MRCSP
Plains CO2 Reduction PartnershipUniv. of N.D. Energy and Environmental Research CenterFocus on two significant regional sinksAgricultural soils (152 MMTCE)Wetlands (374 MMTCE)Agricultural Soils (NDSU)Conversion to no-till or grass landsEconomic vs. technical potentialPerennial grasses are promisingGlaciated North American Prairie Wetlands (USGS and Duck Unlimited Canada)Active sink for 2-3X longer than Ag soilsLong term offset of other GHG emissionsCouple with perennial grasses
Source: USGS
Southwest Partnership on Carbon SequestrationN.M. Institute of Mining and TechnologyFocusing on in Agriculture, Rangelands, and ForestsTerrestrial sequestration in region is naturally limited by low average annual precipitation and the variability in precipitationEven in systems managed for carbon storage, wet years followed by a series of dry years may result in a net carbon flux from the system.Requires large scale implementation to reduce risks caused by variability in rainfall
West Coast Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipCalifornia Energy CommissionAfforestation of Suitable Range Lands9.3 million suitable hectares in CAOffset up to 12% of current CO2 emissions in entire regionForestryLengthen rotations of existing standsThinning to reduce fire risk matched with bio energy productionFire is single largest source of CO2 from TerrestrialMMV Key technical issue MMVTest California Climate Registry accounting protocolsSource: Winrock Int
Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipSouthern States Energy BoardAfforestationUnderproductive farm and grazing landsBio-energy plantationsLarge potential in LMAV16 M acres bottom land hardwoods availableExisting stand management
Other Phase I AccomplishmentsOutreach and education mechanismsStakeholders power companies, utilities, NGOsPublic (stakeholder meetings, Public TV, Factsheets)Carbon Sequestration AtlasesGIS based regional systems & support to NATCARBDecision support toolsIdentify best opportunitiesMMV technologies and protocols being identifiedsatisfy DOE/USDA 1605b voluntary guidelines and State registriesAddress permitting guidelines
Phase II Goals Perform regional technology validation tests for 2012 technology assessment (15-25 field sites)Refine and implement MMV protocols Continue regional characterizationRegulatory compliance activities Implement public outreach and educationIdentify commercially available sequestration technologies ready for large scale deployment Regional partnerships program integration Not a technology development program!
ConclusionFossil fuels, especially coal, are plentiful and important to the United States energy securityTerrestrial sequestration can play a significant role in offsetting carbon emissionsRegional partnerships needed to speed acceptance and adoption by emitters and future markets
Visit the NETL Sequestration Website www.netl.doe.gov/coalpower/sequestration/
Indicate projected future conditions based on existing trends:US energy demands will grow by >30% from 1999 to 2020.Fossil fuel use will likely increase as a proportion of total energy consumption.Fossil fuel use will increase in absolute terms.GHG emissions will increase correspondingly without external controls.
[Approximately 1 minute.]This graph shows two lines. The top line is a reference case, based on EIAs AEO 2004 projections for energy growth; it contains significant technology development for low or no-carbon fuels and improved efficiency, but no direct incentives for GHG emissions reduction. The bottom line is consistent with the Presidents GCCI; it contains accelerated improvement in GHG intensity through 2012 and then gradually reduced emissions thereafter toward a goal of stabilizing emissions at the 2001 level. The emissions reduction requirement, which equals the gap between the two scenarios, grows to 5,300 million metric tons of CO2 per year by 2050. Emissions stabilization is a first step toward atmospheric concentration stabilization, and sequestration from coal-fired power plants and other point sources is essential to making it happen. Taking the next step to stabilize atmospheric concentration will require emissions to be reduced to 8090% below current levels, and to do so we will need to significantly reduce emissions from disperse CO2 sources, an area that is being addressed through the breakthrough concepts portion of our core R&D program.The right side of this slide shows the contribution of various mitigation options needed to meet the gap under the emissions stabilization scenario (bottom line on previous slide) at the lowest cost. The contribution of each option has been estimated using an internal planning model that is based on cost and supply curves.CO2 Capture and Storage and H2 with Sequestration activities (the top two options) are directly dependent on research conducted by the DOE sequestration program. Together, they account for 45% of total emissions reduction in 2050 under the emissions stabilization scenario. Non-CO2 GHGs and Forestation and Agriculture (the next two options) are being pursued by the DOE sequestration program in concert with other public and private partners. This options contribute another 15% under this scenario.Take-home message: The total contribution of the DOE sequestration program is 60%.
