19
Regional Housing Market Outlook presented to Home Builders & Remodelers of Central New York March 14, 2008 Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis
Regional Housing Market Outlookpresented to
Home Builders & Remodelersof Central New York
March 14, 2008
Robert Denk
ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
US Single Family Housing StartsThousands of Units, SAAR
Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB
Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
LocalLocal Key Factors: LocalLocal LocalLocal Economic – LocalLocal Income, Employment, LocalLocal Population LocalLocal LocalLocal Housing Market – LocalLocal House Prices, LocalLocal Inventories LocalLocal LocalLocal Special – LocalLocal Subprime Exposure LocalLocal LocalLocal Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
Unemployment Rate -- Dec. 2007 (%, SA)
Std. Dev.
< -1.5
-1.5 - -0.5
-0.5 - 0.5
0.5 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.5
> 2.5
US: 5Mean: 4.72Std Dev: 1.07Min: 3Max: 7.6
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
House Price Appreciation: 2007Q4 vs 2000Q4
US: 62.1%Mean: 57.6%Std Dev: 31.1%Min: 9.0%Max: 145.4%
Std. Dev.
< -1.5
-1.5 - -0.5
-0.5 - 0.5
0.5 - 1.5
> 1.5
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
Recent House Price Appreciation
174
187
Still Rising
Peaked
Source: OFHEO
House Price Decline from the Peak
# of declining metros: 187Mean: -3.7%Std Dev: 4.1%Min: -20.5%Max: 0%
Std. Dev.
< -2.5
-2.5 - -1.5
-1.5 - -0.5
-0.5 - 0.5
0.5 - 0.9
Still Rising
Source: OFHEO
(un)Affordability
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors
Median House Price / Median Income
Subprime ARM Exposure (2007Q4)
US: 6.1%Mean: 5.2%Std Dev: 2.0%Min: 2.0%Max: 12.8%
Std. Dev.
< -1.5
-1.5 - -0.5
-0.5 - 0.5
0.5 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.5
> 2.5
Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
91Q1 93Q1 95Q1 97Q1 99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Houston, TX Metro (L) Baltimore, MD (R) Cape Coral, FL (R)
Source: US Census Bureau
Single Family Building Permits, Thousands of Units, SAAR
Houston, TX
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
91Q1 93Q1 95Q1 97Q1 99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Prices Permits
Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
Single Family Building Permits, ThousandsPercent Change in Prices
Baltimore, MD
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
91Q1 93Q1 95Q1 97Q1 99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Prices Permits
Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands
Cape Coral, FL
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
91Q1 93Q1 95Q1 97Q1 99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Prices Permits
Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands
Syracuse, NY
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
91Q1 93Q1 95Q1 97Q1 99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Prices Permits
Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands
(un)Affordability
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Houston Baltimore Cape Coral US Syracuse
Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors
Median House Price / Median Income
US: -25%
Single-Family Permits Growth
(YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03)
<= -41%
-41% to -31%
-31% to -21%
-21% to -11%
-11% to 0%
>0%
T X
C A
M T
A ZNM
NV
I D
C O
O R
K S
U T
WY
S D
N E
I L
MN
I A
N D
OK
F L
MO
W I
WA
GAA L
A R
N C
P A
L A
M I
M S
I N
N Y
T N
OH
KY
VA
S C
M E
WV
V T
N J
N H
MA
C T
MD D E
R I
D C
A K
H I
Source: US Census Bureau
<= -41%
-41% to -31%
-31% to -21%
-21% to -11%
-11% to 0%
>0%
Single-Family Permits Growth
(YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03)
US: -25%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Single Family Housing StartsUS - Thousands of Units, Syracuse - Number of Units, SAAR
Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB
US
Syracuse
