Role of Cities to Achieve 2 degree targetRole of Cities to Achieve 2 degree target 1 Junichi FUJINO...

Role of Cities to Achieve

2 degree target

1

Junichi FUJINOIGES/NIES

Japan-China Climate Policy Research Workshop

Sep 7 2017, Beijing

2

19:27pm Dec 11th 2015 in Le Bourget, Paris3:27am Dec 12th 2015 in Tokyo, Japan

Paris Agreement to me2 degree/1.5 degree

-> zero/minus emissions by 2100

Country needs to submit CCAP (climate change action plan)

every 5 year and review process

Role of Non-State Actors(Business + Local Governments)

What happens to national government/local government?

National CCAP

Local GovernmentAction Plans

CCAP: Climate Change Action Plan

Climate Change Science

Why Climate Change happens?

1. No greenhouse gas (GHG) effect…

2. Because ofGHG effect

3. More GHG effect…

１4oC above １4oC-19oC

7

IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM Figure SPM.6 | Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: change in continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels), Arctic and Antarctic September sea ice extent (white panels), and upper ocean heat content in the major ocean basins (blue panels).

9

IPCC AR4WG1 Figure 7.3. The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr–1: pre-industrial ‘natural’ fluxes in black and ‘anthropogenic’ fluxes in red (modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004).

10

Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multimodel results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with colouredlines and decadal means (dots).

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IPCC AR5 SYT Figure SPM.11 | Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) in baseline and mitigation scenarios for different long-term concentration levels (a)

Climate Change Mitigation Modeling

- Case of Japan -

13

What is AIM? – start project since 1989 -■ Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a family of analytical models which are

developed by research institutes in Japan. AIM contributes IPCC reports, discussion on climate change mitigation actions in Japan and Asian countries.

■ AIM can be regarded as “researchers network”, because AIM is developed and applied through collaboration with researchers in various countries.

Example of AIM’s structure and output

Model Researchers Network

21th AIM International Workshop

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/aim_workshop/aimws_15/aimws_15.html

15

Key tools of AIM

Quantification of LCS scenarios

Extended Snapshot tool (ExSS)

AIM/CGE AIM/Enduse

Models/toolsAn integrating tool of future economic, industrial, social and energy visions with mitigating options

Engineering and financial analysis

Designing LCS visions

A tool for keeping macro-economic consistency among supply, demand and resource constraints and for estimating macro-economic impacts of taking actions

A tool for estimating technology deployment, consequent energy consumption, and their impacts on GHG emission.

LCS tools

LC development actions and roadmap

Tools for connecting models outputs with LCS actions making process logically, and support designing, managing the progresses of actions

Logical design

Based on T. Masui (2017, AIM Training WS)

16

Basic Methodology

1. Data collection

2. Model simulation

3. Contribution to CCAP

Info

rmat

ion

shar

ing

and

exch

angi

ng w

ith H

CM

C

Macro data• Population/household• GDP growth• Economic development• Transport• Others

Energy and technology data

• Energy efficiency• Technology status• Emission factor

Project data of CCAP

• Implementation of mitigation measures

• Diffusion rate of technology

AIM/ExSS AIM/Book-keeping

Energy related GHG emissions

Non-energy related GHG emissions

Non-energy related GHG emissions

reduction

Technical report• Socio-economic activity• Energy demand• GHG emissions• GHG emissions reduction

Climate Change Action Plan

Energy related GHG emissions

reduction

17Research project on Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios developmentFY2004-2008 sponsored by Ministry of the Environment, Japan

Japan LCS research project

18

Depicting socio-

economic visions in 2050

Estimating energy service

demands

Exploring innovations for energy

demands and energy

supplies

Quantifying energy

demand and supplyto estimate

CO2emissions

Checking potentials for energy

supply

Achieving energy-related CO2

emissions target

Step4

Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)

Step1

Step2

Step3

Step5

19

Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but

likely future societies

Akemi Imagawa

20

High efficiency lighting

【eg LED lighting】

Photovoltaic

Monitoring systemequipped with appliances

Eco-life education

Reduce 60% warmingenergy demand,share 100%

34-69MW(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV

COP (coefficients of performance=8), share 100%

Super high efficiency air conditioner

Solar heatingDiffusion rate: 20-60%

（currently 8%）

Heat-pump heatingCOP＝5share 30-70%

Fuel cellshare 0-20%

High-insulation

Reduce 1/2 energy demandShare 100%

Stand-by energy reduction

Reduce 1/3 energydemand, share 100%

LCS house in 2050Comfortable and

energy-saving house

rooftop gardening

5

Utilizing solar power

High efficiency appliances reduce energy demand and

support comfortable and safe lifestyle

Good information foreconomy and environmentmakes people’s behavior

low-carbon

10-20% energy demand reduction

Direct DC network

21

17

10

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (M

toe)

Change of the numberof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of energydemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption

H2 consumption

Solar consumption

Biomass consumption

Gas consumption

Oil consumption

Energy consumption in2000

Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50%

Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

Energy Efficiency

Insulation system

Japan LCS research project

Japanese target: 25% cut by 2020and 80% cut by 2050

Local LCS roadmap developmentfor Shiga, Kyoto and Tsukuba

International LCS research networkJapan-UK -> LCS-RNet

Discussion by Central Environment Council Roadmap Subcommittee (FY 2010)

Committee of Ministers Task Force Meeting on Global Warming (October 2009 -)

Re-estimation based on results of study by National Institute for Environmental Studies

AIM Project Team (March 26, 2010)

Prediction of measures introduced

Japan Economy ModelJapan Economy Model

Presented as a springboard for

discussion

Results of study

Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models

Global Warming Mitigation 2050 Project (FY 2004 - 2008) Asian Low-Carbon Society Project (2009 - 2013)

Council on Medium and Long-Term Roadmap for Global Warming Measures (FY 2009)

• Central Environment Council Roadmap Subcommittee interviews

• National dialogue

• Public comment, etc.Opinions regarding estimates

Draft proposal by Environment Minister

- 25 % as compared to1990 levels

Japan Economy Model

Japan Economy Model


Japan Economy Model

Re-estimation based on results of study by National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM Project Team (October 15, 2010) (December 21,

2010)

Japan Economy Model


Japan Economy Model

Results of study

ケース設定

Full meeting

Home and Building Working Group

Automobile Working Group

Urban Planning Working Group

Rural Community Sub Working Group

Energy Supply Working Group

Consultation of new growth strategy, basic energy plan and other government plans relating to global warming measures

- Macro-frame Working Group

- Manufacturing Working Group

- Home and Building Working Group

- Automobile Working Group

- Urban Planning Working Group

- Land Use and Transportation Sub Working Group

- District and Block Sub Working Group- Rural Community Sub Working Group

- Energy Supply Working Group

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Relationship of Model Analyses in Medium and Long-Term Roadmap Study

Re-estimation

(July 29, 2010)

[Technology]

[Society / Economy]

[People]

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Industry Commercial Residential Transport

Greenhouse Gases Energy Supply

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1424

Agriculture

Volume of greenhouse gas emissions(100 million tons of CO2 in 2007)

Local development(Rural communities)

Daily life

CO2 originating from power generation

Before shift

CO2 originating from power generation

After shift ManufacturingIndustry + industry processes + F gases

Residences and buildings

Homes + buildings Railways / marine / air

Transportation

Forest sinks, etc.

Automobiles

Energy supply

(indirect emissions)

(direct emissions)

Analysis by AIM/Enduse in Japan

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359

413387

369

328309 298

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Fixe

d

Low

Med

ium

Hig

h

'90 '05 '10 2030

Fina

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n （M

illio

n k

L of

Oil

Equ

ival

ent）

・EV/HV: 70 to 90% of new car sales・About 40% improvement of freight vehicle

efficiency・Eco-driving in practice : 15 to 40%(passenger),

25 to 55%(freight)

Transport

・Ensure all newly built homes and buildings use advanced insulation and energy saving designs/features

・High-efficiency water heater: 75 to 90% in households, 40 to 90% in commercial building

・Home/Building energy management system・PV power: 28 Mil. kW in households, 38 to 73

Mil. kW in commercial building

Commerci

al

Residential

・Commercialization and popularization of best-available-technology

・Fuel conversion to natural gases

Industry

Final energy consumption in 2030 (low growth case)

Case in Japan

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-35 -42 -49-34 -41 -49

58 78 97

-100

-50

0

50

100

▲15% ▲20% ▲25%

Cost

(tril

lion

yen)

Additional Investment(‘11-’20 cumulative)

Energy Reduction Costs(‘11-’20 cumulative)

Energy Reduction Costs(‘21-’30 cumulative)

Total investment required

Gains from energy saving

■AIM/Enduse can also provide cost analysis of mitigation actions.■Necessary investment for mitigation actions, priority for investments, and benefits of

energy saving (reduction in energy cost) can be provided.

Abatement Cost Curve Investment & Gains

Enduse/CGE Application

Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap

Case in Japan

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Policy Recommendation■ AIM/Enduse can be utilized to analyze abatement cost for countermeasure

technologies. ■ Users can extract insight on policy recommendation (shown in colored square in

the figure below) based on Enduse analysis.

Abat

emen

t Cos

ts(Y

en/k

tCO

2）

Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10,000

-20,000

-30,000

-40,000

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,0000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000

Measures (Type A)

Negative abatement costs.

Economically feasilbe

Measures (Type B)

Abatement costs are under certain

level

Measures (Type C)

High cost measures. Requires appropriate

policy measures

GHG reduction（ktCO2eq）

Regulation on technology selection

Carbon pricing

Measures for providing information such as energy efficiency

Enhancement of technology development

Case in Japan

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KEY CONCEPTFOR RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTOR

Diffusion of ZEB and ZEH Collaboration among central and local governments Labeling to encourage smart and rational choice

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Image of Zero Emission House（「ＬＣＣＯ２配慮建築物小委員会」資料、国交省）

Sunchinecut by Tree

SolarPanel

Natural airventilation

Heat absorber

space

“CASBEE” building labeling system in Japan

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Roadmap for residential and commercial sector

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Environmental performance criteria 1999

standard

Improving environmental performance

Recommended standard

Zero emission standard

Obligatinginformation provision

Building environmental performance labeling system

New buildings:Mandatory

Mandatory when signing tenant contract

Existing buildings:Mandatory when selling

Mandatory obligation to comply with energy saving standard

Introducing regulations

Residential“top-runner” system

ObjectivesRo

adm

ap

”Top runner”appliance

Appliance “top-runner” system (Continuous revision of criteria)

New buildings:mandatory standard100%

New buildings:Zero emission: 100%

Zero emissionStock: 100%

GHG

emiss

ions

per

cap

ita

High CarbonLocked in Society

Low Carbon Locked in Society

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

Low Carbon SocietyBackcasting

Leapfrog-Development

How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?

High Carbon Locked-in type Development

Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System

Time

(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting

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National • Thailand• Indonesia• Malaysia• Cambodia• Vietnam

City 【Vietnam】• Ho Chi Minh• Da Nang• Hai Phong【Malaysia】• Putrajaya• Iskandar

AIM activities in Asia

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index_j.html Target RegionsFY2014-FY2016

■ AIM has contributed processes to formulate climate policy in Japan, and the activities are expanded to Asia. AIM has been involved in formulation processes of low carbon policies through collaboration with Asian researchers.

■ Since FY2014, “Asia Low Carbon Society Research (LCSR) Project” which is funded by MoEJ is launched. The project includes not only making low carbon scenarios but also designing practical programs to realize LCS in target regions.

Low Carbon Society Scenariofor Cities

- Case of Hai Phong City -

34

Apply AIM model to cities■ExSS (Extended SnapShot tool) is an integrating tool of future economic,

industrial, social and energy visions with mitigating options. ■Future LCS scenarios in target regions can be developed according to various

socio-economic indicators, degree of taking actions, etc. by utilizing ExSS. Procedures of scenario development are shown below.

Socio-economic indicators

Energy consumptions

GHG emissions

Prepared datafor base year

Assumption for future society and economy

BaU Scenario

AIM/ExSS

Socio-economic indicators

Energy consumptions

GHG emissions

LCS Scenario

List-up of LCS programs

Tentative GHG reduction by each program

AIM/ExSS

Bottom-up estimation

Consistent GHG reduction

by each program

Example of model structure

Energy service demand per driving force Fuel share

Energy efficiency

CO2 emission factor

Output by industry

Commercial building floor

area

Freight transport demand

Passenger transport demand

Energy service demand

Exogenous variables

Parameters

Endogenous variables

Final energy demand

Energy demand (DPG)

Central power generation (CPG)

Energy demand (CPG)

Primary energy supply

Dispersed power generation (DPG)

CO2 emissions

Energy efficiency (DPG)

Energy efficiency (CPG)

Fuel share (CPG)

Transmission loss (CPG)

Own use (CPG)

Energy end-use device share

Energy end-use device energy

efficiency

Number of household

Information from programs in LCS scenario

Procedures of LCS Scenario Development

Estimation of Input-output table• Regional IOT is estimated by the cross-entropy method.• Necessary information

– IOT for Vietnam (national scale)– Control totals (Gross output) by industry– Value added by industry and Final demand (Consumption, Investment, Export, Import)

5

IOT for Vietnam 2005– Input coefficient– Final demand share by industry

Macro-economic data for Vietnam 2013– Control totals(Gross outputs)– Value added– Final demand

IOT for Vietnam 2013

Reconciliation by cross-entropy

methodMacro-economic data for cities 2013– Control totals(Gross outputs)– Value added– Final demand

IOT for cities 2013

Reconciliation by cross-entropy

method

Estimation of Energy Balance Table

36

The Energy Balance Table (EBT) of Haiphong in 2013 is estimated based on the available on-site information of Haiphong and EBT of the whole Vietnam in 2013 (published by IEA), together with the macro-economic information of Haiphong and whole Vietnam.Industry sector Electricity consumption is got from DIC. Energy consumptions are downscaled from national scale (industrial output)

Transport sector Energy consumptions are calculated based on fuel economy and transport volume. Energy consumption from waterway of freight is downscaled from national scale by (transport

volume)

Residential sector Energy consumptions are calculated from electricity consumption and fuel share reported by DIC.

Main sourcesEnergy consumption in Vietnam: IEA (2015) “Energy Balances of Non-OECD countries”Electricity: Department of Industry and Commerce – Hai Phong (DIC)Fuel economy: GEC (2014) “Report for Ho Chi Minh City-Osaka City Cooperation Project for Developing Low Carbon City”Industrial output: Haiphong Statistical Yearbook, Vietnam Statistical YearbookValue added: Haiphong Statistical Yearbook, Vietnam Statistical Yearbook

Commercial sector Electricity consumption is got from DIC. Energy consumptions except for electricity are downscaled from national scale by value added.

Socioeconomic indicatorUnit 2013 2030 2030/2013

Population persons 1,925,217 3,000,000 1.56

No. of households households 553,406 1,000,000 1.81

GDP per capita mil. Dongs 55 193 3.51

GDP bil. Dongs 105,651 577,829 5.47

Outputs bil. Dongs 282,310 1,595,478 5.65

Final consumption bil. Dongs 67,644 369,309 5.46

Gross fixed capital formation bil. Dongs 38,607 210,777 5.46

Export bil. Dongs 111,247 607,360 5.46

Import bil. Dongs 111,847 609,616 5.45

Result: Hai phong energy demand

38

39

Industry Commercial Residential PassengerTransport

FreightTransport

Total(ktCO2eq)

Action 1. Green IndustryPromotion of energy efficient equipment and fuel shift 1,477 1,477

Action 2. Green BuildingDiffusion of low-energy building (EMS, Insulation, Fuel shift) 199 63 262

Action 3. Energy EfficiencyPromotion of energy efficient device/appliance 130 233 363

Action 4. Clean TransportEnergy efficient vehicle and modal shift 284 2,257 2,541

Total (ktCO2eq) 1,477 329 296 284 2,257 4,643

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Project SectorEmission reduction(ktCO2eq)

1 Green Industry 1-01 Energy savings in factory Industry 601.9

1-02 Installation high energy efficiency facilities (such as compressors and motors) Industry 93.4

1-03 Regional energy supply system Industry 514.8

1-04 Improvement of kiln and furnace technology Industry 266.6

Total 1,476.8

2 Green Building 2-01 Installation of insulated glasses to commetcial buildings Commercial 19.5

2-02 Installation of insulated glasses to households Residential 35.5

2-03 Introduction of incentive to low energy buildings Commercial 3.5

2-04 Introduction of insulating material to houses Residential 13.4

2-05 Energy efficiency technology applied to buildings Commercial 9.7

2-06 Introduction of solar water heater to commercial buildings Commercial 44.5

2-07 Introduction of solar water heater to households Residential 102.4

2-08 Introduction of photovoltaic power generation to commercial buildings Commercial 29.2

2-09 Introduction of photovoltaic power generation to households Residential 4.2

Total 262.0

3 Energy Efficiency 3-01 Energy savings in commercial facilities Commercial 35.4

3-02 Coversion of street lights to LED lighting Commercial 3.2

3 03 High efficienc lighting in commercial b ildings Commercial 43 0

Action

41

GHG emission and reduction

6.7

33.5

28.9

14%

42

Policy dialogue in COP22

Researcher: Dr. Lam (ISPONRE) Policymaker: Dr. Ka, Ms. Huong (DONRE)

Partners

Official side event at COP22

Hai Phong

How to utilize Low Carbon Society Scenario- Case of Iskandar Malaysia -

Iskandar Malaysia Vision“Strong and Sustainable

Metropolis of International Standing”

JB CITY CENTRE

NUSAJAYA

WESTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT

EASTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT

SENAI-SKUDAI

At the heart of South East Asia and within minutes from Singapore

Strategically located at the cross roads of East-West trade lanes

Midway between the growing economy of China and India

LCS scenario research(Low Carbon Society)

by SATREPS (JST/JICA)scheme

+

Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025

Action Names1 Integrated Green Transportation2 Green Industry3 Low Carbon Urban Governance 4 Green Buildings & Construction

5 Green Energy System & Renewable Energy

6 Low Carbon Lifestyle

7 Community Engagement & Consensus Building

8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design

9 Smart Growth

10 Green and Blue Infrastructure & Rural Resources

11 Sustainable Waste Management

12 Clean Air Environment

12 action, 281 program

Premier of Malaysia provided permission in the 13th IRDA Steering Committee to start the Iskandar Low Carbon Society planning（December 11th, 2012）

Science to Action (Theory and Practice)

Japanese experience on Low Carbon Scenarios & Roadmaps

+ Malaysian challenge on

Implementation of Low Carbon Visions

SATREPS 46

ISKANDAR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (IRDA)

COP 18, Doha

COP 19, Warsaw

COP 20,Lima

MOA, 2012

MOA, 2013

COP 21, Paris

MOA,2015

AIC, 2016

Local & International Launches

COP 22, Marrakech


* Preliminary Study: Brochure Low Carbon City 2025 Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia

*Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025 - Summary for Policymakers

*A Roadmap towards Low Carbon Iskandar Malaysia 2025*Iskandar Malaysia: Action for a Low Carbon Future

*Low Carbon Society Brochures for 5 Local Authorities

*Low Carbon Society Action Plan 2025 for 5 Local Authorities in Iskandar Malaysia (Johor Bahru, Johor Bahru Tengah, Pasir Gudang, Kulai & Pontian)

*Iskandar Malaysia Green House Gas Inventory 2015

2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Low Carbon Publications


• To create awareness of Low Carbon Society (LCS) among students, teachers and their families in achieving the target of carbon reduction by 2025.

• Collaboration IRDA, JPNJ, UTM, MIM and Japan (Kyoto City)

• 231 primary schools and 28,000 year 6 student

• Recorded 290,219.3 KgCO2eq.

AIMS:• to establish long-term partnerships between

stakeholders. An umbrella platform to implement marine and coastal initiatives;

• to encourage proactive management of coastal resources involving technical government agencies, researchers, NGOs, the private sector;

• To empower local champions as the main beneficiary of the PESISIR programme.

• In 2016, CASBEE Iskandar Manuals (for Urban, City and Building) pilots have been completed and adopted by IRDA

• Globally launched at COP22 Marrakech, 9 Nov 2016

• Next step: Establish CASBEE Iskandar Centre (CIC) in order to further promote, implement and manage the CASBEE Iskandar development.

Low Carbon Society Projects 2016

Why Semarang?

51

52

53

54May 15th 2016, Toyama

Speakers: City of Firenze, ItalyCity of Vancouver, CanadaCity of Vitry-le-François, FranceCity of Bristol, United Kingdom100RC, GEF, ICLEI, Promotion Committee for the “Future City” Initiative

Co-chairs: Mr. Masashi Mori Mayor, Toyama City, Japan Prof. Hironori Hamanaka Chair, Board of Directors, IGES

G7 Toyama Environment Ministers’ Meeting Parallel Session

The Role of Cities May 15, 2016, Toyama, Japan

55

The Role of Cities –Key Messages from G7 Toyama Environment Ministers' Meeting Parallel Session

Wednesday 13 July, ISAP2016, Pacifico Yokohama

City of Frankfurt am Main, GermanyCity of Higashimatsushima, JapanCity of Kitakyushu, JapanCity of Toyama, Japan

Press release on 15 May

Bristol

This is the first time for group of Mayors directlyto brief to G7 Environmental Ministers’ Meeting.

Morning session, 16 Maybrief to Ministers

Frankfurtam Main

ToyamaIGES MoEJ Firenze

100RCGEFVancouverHigashi

matsushimaVitry-le-FrancoisICLEI

KitakyushuFutureCityInitiative

56

MOEJ JCM FS survey study to introduce low-carbon technologies in Semarang

by cooperation between Toyama and Semarangduring FY 2017 (Sep 2017-Feb 2018)

1. Transportation: 1) Introducing high-efficiency operation system to the existing BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), 2) CNG retrofit of diesel fueled bus of the existing BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), 3) pre-survey of LRT in Semarang

2. Renewable energy: Installation of 1) mini-hydro power plant, 2) PV power plant, 3) biomass power plant in university of Semarang

3. Energy saving: installation of 1) high-efficiency chiller, 2) cogeneration to reduce electricity purchase from grid and fossil fuel consumption for steam 3) high-efficiency natural gas boiler, in factories in Semarang

57MOEJ: Ministry of the Environment Japan, JCM: Joint Crediting Mechanism, FS: Feasibility Study

58

Toyama supports low-carbon technology implementation in Semarangwith PCKK and IGES, covered by Toyama local newspapers on 8th Aug, 2017

PCKK: Pacific-ConsultantIGES: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

A. Improvement of operation efficiency of existing BRT Effect of project Ripple effect

Introduction cost：75 million yen

Reduction effect：568 yen/tLegal durable years：5 years

＜Operation improvement plan (Draft)＞①Introduction of IC cards②Separation and remodeling of doors for entrance and exit③Bus location system④Introduction of information provision service（Information delivery for cell phones, installation of display at bus stops）

Overview of the study（Transportation）

①Expansion to other routes・Improve operation efficiency at

Koridor Ⅱ～Ⅳ and promote modalshift in two years・At the same introduction scale as

Koridor 1

②Expansion to other lines・ Improve operation efficiency at

Koridor Ⅴ～Ⅷ and promote modal shift in five years・At the same introduction scale asKoridor 1

B. Conversion of existing BRT to CNG fuel bus Effect of project Ripple effect

・Remodeling existing BRT（diesel fuel） to CNG bus, aiming to reduce gas emission by conversion from diesel fuel to CNG fuel

＜Targeted routes・vehicles＞・Koridor Ⅰ～Ⅳ

Number of operated buses：75（Remodel 75 units to CNG buses）

＜Accompanied plan＞Construction of CNG stations

Introduction cost：1.06 billion yen

Reduction effect：5,731 yen/tLegal durable years：5 years

・Increasing frequency from 10 minutes to 5 minutes during 7-9 am and 4-6pm by improving BRT’s operation efficiency・Promoting modal shift from private vehicles and motorbikes

＜Targeted routes・basic information＞・Koridor 1 (Mangkang - Penggaron)・Number of operated buses：20・Number of passengers：2,264,832/year (2013)

Applied technologies for the projects

Terminal Cangkiran

v

Terminal Mangkang

Bandara A Yani

vv

SMA 5 Balaikota

SimpangLima

SidodadiDr.Cipto

Sedes

Terminal Penggaron

Ksatrian

PDAM Jatingaleh

Bukitsari

TembalangSrondol

Ada Setiabudi

Sukun

Banyumanik

Gedawang

Pudakpayung

BPKP

Alun alun UngaranTerminal Sisemut

BPKPPudakpayung

Ada Setiabudi

Srondol

KsatrianPasar Jatingaleh

Ngesrep

Pasar Banyumanik

KODAM

Layur St. Tawang

PelabuhanTanjungEmas

UDINUS

Tugumuda

U

TB

STerminal Terboyo

JARINGAN PELAYANAN BRT TRANS SEMARANG KORIDOR I,II,III DAN IV

Mangkang

Penggaron

Bus location serviceCurrent door (one in the middle)

Introduction of IC cards

・Continuing support for LRT completion as integrated sustainable transportation system that Semarang has been aspiring, and boosting Semarang’s input for transportation plan, utilizing Toyama City’s knowledge on “Establishment of compact city focused on public transportation” and modal shift to public transportation

【Future project】 Switching from BRT to LRT

CNG station(Natural gas eco station Toyama Kurose)

計画路線・Conversion of BRT routes（Koridor I (Mangkang - Penggaron)）to LRT Introduction cost：5.49billion yen（2-car train×24） Reduction effect：3,571 yen/t

Expansion to other lines ・Conversion to CNG bus in KoridorⅤ～Ⅷ

・Number of Annual number and distance of BRT replaced by CNG:8,558,155 cars, km/year

CNG bus

②Biomass gas power generation/boiler（300kW）

Overview of the study （Renewable energy）

Diponegoro University

Semarang city

Scraps fromfurniture factory Direct burning biomass plant（4MW）

③Solar power on Dam surface（total 1.4MW※）

Driftwoods（Collection at dam ）

Thinning riparian Forest for watershed

management

PV panels at factories of Japanese companies （for roof）

Introduction of open channel water turbine to

agricultural dam①-2Jatibaran dam1MW water power

Babon Dam for educatioin

①-1Babon Small hydro power/

dam for education（50kW）

Applied technologies②Biomass power

Generation/boiler

Applied technologies①

Small hydroPower generation

Applied technologies③

PV powergeneration

Expanding the package to new dams

（biomass＋small hydro＋solar power）

Ripple effect

University campus University hospital

Electricity

・Introduction of Francis turbine (operation range is wide)respond

to fluctuations in flow・Introduction to dam for education of universitypromote training of

enginieers and technology transfer

Future development and resolution of regional problems【Effects in reducing CO2 emission

①Water power：2,900yen/t（initiation cost 0.45 billion yen annual reduction 3,527t-CO2 ）②Biomass power：3,153yen/t（initiation cost 0.13 billion yen, annual reduction1,395t-CO2 ）③solar power：3,793 yen/t（initiation cost 0.14 billion yen, annual reduction 1,086t-CO2 ）※Ripple effect is excluded from consideration

·Utilize hydro electric power generation know-how in Toyama prefecture which is steep topography similar to Semarang city.·Flow fluctuation can be accommodated by the installation and quantity control of the francisturbine which is wide range of operation. ·Driving considering river management, such as environmental release (flash discharge and so on).

biomass

Heat

Contribution to water management and waste utilization by using driftwoods and riparian forest for biomass power generation

Having independent power supply, it can be used as a disaster center base in the event of a disaster

※Combination use of educational dam surface and unused ground in the university :1.4 MW

Co-benefit by applied techniques①Know-how to manage rivers and water quality by adjusting the amount of flow②Flood control through watershed management like driftwoods control at dams or rivers③Dam development method for flood control and energy base④Strengthening disaster measures with the introduction of independent power supply

Applied techniques①Small hydro power：Introduction of dam for education in universitypromote training of technicians and technique transfer②Biomass power：Resolving problems by water management (driftwoods) and utilization of unused resources③Solar power：Efficient use of dam surface

Realization of resilient city by introduction of renewable energy in problem solving type

Wood scraps

Efforts for creation of recycling society

Food waste Biomass power plant/boiler


C. Conversion from boiler (kerosene / heavy oil) to high efficiency boiler (gas)

Effect of project

Convert boilers (kerosene / heavy oil) to high-efficiency gas boilers (system 100%) for factories such as somefactories in the BSB industrial park

Steam・Hot water：1500kg/h×6 unitIntroduction cost：90 million yenReduction effect：2,613 yen/tLegal durable years：15 years(Ex：Compact once-through boiler, MIURA CO.,LTD )

Overview of the study（Energy Efficiency）

A. Improvement of air conditioning efficiency Effect of project

Survey following improvement effects targeting facilities of central cooling opportunities:1) Higher efficiency by central cooling 2) Introduction of Inverter to individual air

conditioning in factories

COP:5.0 → COP7.0Cooling capacity：4,400kWIntroduction cost：150 million yenReduction effect：3,650 yen/tLegal durable years：15 years

B. Introduction of gas cogeneration (CHP) Effect of project

Reduce CO2 emission using both electricitysupplied from coal-fired power plants andthe heat used in factories to be converted to electricity1) gas engine and gas turbine2) Fuel cell (to be provided based on needs)

Output Power：500kWSteam・Hot water：33m3/hIntroduction cost：150 million yenReduction effect：2,969 yen/tLegal durable years：15 years（Ex:Cogeneration facility introduced in Toyama）

（Ex：High efficiency centrifugal refrigerating machine EBARA）

・ Information arrangement on candidate facilities to introduce energy-saving equipmentincluding data collection of electricity demand, thermal demand amount, and gas component data of Semarang city

① Collection of Basic Information and Adjustment with related organizations

・ Collect data of demand for power and heat at candidate facilities to introduce energy-saving equipment by a walkthrough survey

・ Explain purpose, scheme and effect of energy saving by renovation of the equipment

② Selection of target facility and grasp of its actual use of energy

・Diagnose facility operation status, usage status of fuel and of facility for air conditioning, and available amount of waste heat etc.・Optimize steam pressure, reduce pressure vessel inspection cost such as primary headers and flash tanks

③ Implementation of energy saving diagnosis

＜ Ripple effect ＞

④ Equipment Introduction Project (Renovation for energy savings focusing on conversion to gas)

①Building of ESCO scheme from energy saving diagnosis

Input of model projects including energy saving renovation as well as human resource developmentby energy saving diagnosis

Confirmation of content for energy saving renovation

②Conversion of energy usage structureExpect to spread to industrial parks and

commercial facilities as a development with extension of gas pipelines＜Expected facilities＞・Industrial parks （e.g. BSB Industrial Estate ）・Large scale commercial complex buildings・Hotels

Realization of resilient city by building ESCO scheme, improving energy efficiency

and structural change of energy usage

Energy saving diagnosis

Collection of Basic Information （Actual energy use）

Deterioration diagnosisProposal for high

efficiency and operational improvement

Confirmation of content for project

Renovation for deterioration and higher efficiency

Instruction to operation

Energy-savingCO2 reduction


Why Semarang?• 1st 100RC in Indonesia• Good collaboration between Research (DIP) and Local

Government (City of Semarang)• Necessary to tackle with climate change impact by

adaptation and mitigation to design better infrastructure• Challenge to synergize City Resilient Policy and Climate

Change Action Plan in line with SDGs• Model can assess integrity of actions

62

Ready to Challenge!

63


Researcher: Dr. Lam (ISPONRE) Policymaker: Dr. Ka, Ms. Huong (DONRE)

Partners


Hai Phong

64


Researcher: Dr. Maryono (DIP) Policymaker: Mr. Farchan, Mr. Luthfi (Bappeda)

Partners


Semarang

Semarang

Logo of Bappeda &Diponegoro Univ.

Results in Semarang Speakers from Semarang???

65http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/

66http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/

67

http://www.local-renewables-conference.org/home/

https://www.japanfs.org/en/files/sustanable_zone02_en.jpg

Prof. Kurasaka, Chiba Univ

68

https://www.japanfs.org/ja/news/archives/news_id035638.html

地域経済循環のイメージ Concept of local economic circulation

69

https://www.japanfs.org/ja/news/archives/news_id035638.html

水俣市における地域経済循環の概要 Overview of local economic circulation in Minamata city

<21 NATIONAL STRATEGIC PROJECTS FOR REVIVAL OF JAPAN FOR THE 21ST CENTURY>

Growth Driven by Japan’s Strengths

I. National Strategic Projects Related to “green innovation”

2. “FutureCity” Initiative

We will work to create a “FutureCity,” which will realize world-leading successful cases through future-oriented technologies, schemes and services and diffuse these achievements nationwide as well as overseas. Specifically, in line with the policy of creating “towns endowed with nature and human warmth” that are appealing both at home and aboard, and fully taking into consideration “profitability and ripple effect on other cities,” we will implement relevant measures intensively in strategic cities and regions carefully selected from among eco-model cities. Such measures include establishing a city energy management system which consists of a combination of smart grids, renewable energies, and next-generation vehicles, carrying out business restructuring and fostering related industries, and promoting the comprehensive use of renewable energies.

To put these measures into action, a new law will be enacted (tentatively called the Act on FutureCity Promotion). The relevant ministries and agencies will concentrate budget funds related to the next-generation social system and equipment subsidies, and provide thorough support for this initiative, including regulatory reforms as well as tax system reforms (e.g. green tax system). Furthermore, we will proceed with government-level partnerships with Asian countries for exporting the entire city design as a package.

２

The New Growth Strategy–Blueprint for Revitalizing Japan-（June 18, 2010, Cabinet Decision）

(excerpt)

・ To create unparalleled successful cases through future-oriented technologies, socio-economic systems, services, business models and city planning in strategically selected cities and regions.

• To disseminate successful cases both within and outside Japan, and enlarge market and employment.

• Relevant ministries and agencies will support its promotion by concentrating their budget funds, implementing regulatory reforms and tax system reforms, etc.

Realize regional revitalization and sustainable socio-economic system in JAPAN

Purpose of “FutureCity” Initiative

“FutureCity”

DisseminateSuccessful Cases

Best Practices(domestic and overseas)

Technology

Socio-economic system

Service

Business models

City planning

Human resources

Goods

Capital

Regulatory reforms

Concentrate

etc…

ImproveQuality

of Life

etc… ３

Platforms

Platforms

timelineconcept Successful

Case ASuccessful

Case B

Successful Case A’

Successful Case C

Successful Case D

Global network

Domestic network

Collaboration with domestic and global networks

inputoutput

Image of the Dissemination of Successful Cases

４

・ Reached peak of 130 million in 2004・ Decrease to approx. 95 million by 2050

・ Aging rate (over 65) ： approx. 23% (2009)40% (2050)

・ Unprecedented super-aging society

・ Create low-carbon society to achieve the mid-and long-term goal （reduce 25% by 2020, 80% by 2050）

・ Create energy cycle to ensure energy security

Challenges

・Environmental and energy technology・Urban management (security, disaster prevention,

etc.)・Unique history, tradition, culture, etc.

Overseas Situation・ Sweden exports know-how and technology of city

improvement in a package・ China and UAE rapidly developed new type of cities

centered on new technologies on environment and energy management

・ In Asia, mega-cities are emerging where millions of people live.

Energy saving technologies are the advantages of JAPAN.

・ Super-aging will soon be acute in Asia.Aging rate in China will be over 30% by 2050.

Comparative Advantages of JAPAN

・ International networks of cities such as ICLEI（Local Governments for Sustainability）will be activated.

Management of cities and regions to offer healthy, safe and full life to the residents including elderly.

① Declining Population and Birthrate

② Super-aging

③ Environment and Energy

Management of cities and regions to tackle declining population.

Enhancement of the role of cities and regions

Present Situation of Cities and Regions in JAPAN

Big market will be emerged.

５

1. Realize the city where “everybody wants to live ” and “everybody has vitality”2. Create a sustainable socio-economic system which can achieve self-sustained development3. Restore social solidarity4. Improve the quality of life of the residents

The cities where “everybody wants to live” and “everybody has vitality” are those that continue creating environmental, social and economic values through projects for the improvement of “the bases of life”

Creates Environmental Value

Create Economic Value・Stable employment and income・More urbanization・New business・Knowledge society・Tourism etc.

・Education・Medical care and nursing・Energy・ICT・Mobility・House, buildings

“Bases of life”

Successful cases are the sources for new values

Enhance governance for city management

Creates Social Value

Promote under strong International collaboration

Basic Concept of “FutureCity” Initiative- Cities which create new values by tackling environmental issues and super-aging -

- low carbon - waste management- water and atmosphere- biodiversity

-Healthcare-Local medical services-Nursing-Security - Culture-Social solidarity -Social capital

etc.

etc.

etc.

６

Systems to induce private funding

Project Images on the Improvement of the “bases of life”

・Build zero-emission houses and buildings through increased use of renewable energy, installation of efficient equipment and improved heat insulation・Introduce new generation vehicles on a large scale・Energy management utilizing ICT (smart grid, BEMS, HEMS, etc.) ・Convert into compact city・Improve public transportation

・Build high quality barrier free houses with improved thermal insulation・Use ICT to improve lifestyle・Research and improve personal mobility for elderly・medical and nurse care robot・Introduce new services such as medical examination and treatment for the visitors from overseas.

・Connect research results to regional revitalization by creating venture business or promoting public-private partnership under the international cooperation・Develop tourist sites and environment conducive to foreign student to attract visitors from overseas・Undertake regulatory and systems reform

etc. etc. etc.

Environment Super-aging Others

Promote integration to improve the “bases of life”

７

Super agingEnvironment × Internationalization× × ・・・・・・

Integrate Key Elements

Original Design

・ Geographical characteristicse.g. mega-cities, medium-sized cities, rural, snow-covered, coastal, re-developed areas

・ Core competencee.g. technology, food, forest, children etc.

e.g.- low-carbon- waste management- biodiversity

Future Vision of Cities and Regions

• Cities and regions will identify their own future vision to realize the basic concept of the “FutureCity” Initiative.

• Important points to draw the future vision are;- to take advantage of diversity and originality.- to maximize synergy of the environmental, social and economic values.- to use domestic and overseas networks among cities and regions.

e.g.- healthcare- nursing- social capital

８

９

・ Main implementer (Consortium)・ Project manager・ Clarification of the purpose and

action plan

Do・Implement the project to apply to

socio-economical system・Enhance international collaboration

among cities・Diffuse good practices

・Evaluate environmental, social and economic values (need integrated evaluation method) Plan

Evaluate

・Selection of “FutureCity”・Clarification of vision and

concept of each “FutureCity”

Reflect EvaluationRe-planning

ImproveDisseminate

Re-evaluate

Sharing human resources, information and knowledge openly among

domestic and overseas cities and regions.

Bring in know-how from all over the world and

Establish a model of self-sustained development without subsidies

Project Management (Flexibility and a Sense of Speed)

・Government (include advisory board)

・Promoting bodies

Consortium- Local Government- Private Sector- residents: NGOs, NPOs, Individuals-Academia: Universities, Research institutes

Main implementers

・Selection・Clarification of the vision etc.

① Overall “FutureCity” Initiative levelPerspective to effectively promote the overall “FutureCity” initiative

② Each City LevelPerspective from the management of whole actions at each “FutureCity”

③ Each Action LevelPerspective from progress management of the project applications to socio-economic system and the enhancement of international collaboration

3 Levels of the managementSelection of FutureCities

Platform for international knowledge（Stage for the fusion of domestic and overseas best practice）

Domestic and overseascities and regions

(include domestic and overseas)

＜National Level＞

< City/Region Level>

Use domestic and overseas networks of cities and regions

Project Management and Main Implementers

・Planning (goal, action plan, roadmap, etc.)・Prepare implementing structure・Implement action plan to apply to

socio-economic system・Enhance international collaboration・Diffuse good practices・Build consensus among residents ・Undertake regulatory and systems

reform・Evaluate progress and review

etc.

Actions in each city Intensive support

10

Consulting, Advice

Plan and follow-up

National Government (include

advisory board)

Consortium（local government, private sector,

residents, academea）

Budget

manage

implement evaluate

Domestic and overseas

networks

Private funds

Plan and follow-up

National Government (include

advisory board)

Promoting Bodies

Consortium（local government, private sector,

residents, academea）BudgetCollaboration, Regulatory and systems reform fund

Consulting, Advice

Plan and follow-up

Private fund

manage

Tentative Framework

Private funds

Full-fledged Framework

Promoting Bodies

Domestic and

overseas networks

Organizational Framework for Promotion


networks


networks

implement evaluate

Domestic and

overseas networks

11

Aug.Jul. FY2012Sep.FY2011

Oct Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb Mar.

Sep. 01

Sep. 30 Dec.22

Planning of the selected cities

International ForumFeb. 21

Selection Process

Application

Selection

Making the selection standard

Oct. 25

Implementation of projects

Proposer Title

ShimokawaTown, Hokkaido

Shimokawa, Forest Future City with people shining

Kashiwa City, Chiba and Others

Kashiwanoha campus city project "Autonomous urban management with pertnership among public, private and academia"

City of Yokohama, Kanagawa

OPEN YOKOHAMA -Creative Port City where People, Things and Events Connect and Develop－

City of Toyama, Toyama

Construction of Toyama style urban management with compact city strategy -Towards sustainable and value creating city filled with social capital-

City of Kitakyushu, Fukuoka

Kitakyushu Future City

Proposer Title

City of Ofunato,City of Rikuzentakata,Town of Sumita, Iwateand Another

Kesen Regional Future City

City ofKamaishi, Iwate

Kamaishi Future City Initiative

City of Iwanuma, Miyagi

Reconstruction with Love and Hope

City of Higashimatsushima,Miyagi

Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake- Renewal of Higashimatsushima, Towards the future together without forgetting that day -

City of Minamisoma,Fukushima

Recycle City connecting to the next generation, Minamisoma

Shinchi Town, Fukushima

"Of cource, Shinchi is the best town" -Town where you can see the future and hope of environment and life-

＜not in the disaster area＞＜in the disaster area＞

Schedule

"FtutureCity": Cities selected in 2011

12

81

Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister), The 6th International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiative, 2016 Aug, Yokohamahttp://doc.future-city.jp/pdf/forum/2016_06/01_01_izumi_en.pdf

82

Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister)

83

84

Presentation by Dr. Hiroto Izumi (Special Advisor to the Prime Minister)

How can “Urban Policy” and “Climate Policy” get married happily? by Junichi Fujino (IGES/NIES)

Sep 2015

Dec 2015

G7 Toyama Environment Ministers’ Meeting Parallel Session

“The Role of Cities” on 15th May 2016

Oct 2016

30th Aug 2016

Asia Smart City Conference

18th Nov 2016

Precom 3 for HABITAT III, 27th July 2016, Surabaya

http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index_j.html

• By the 2020 CCAP scenario, the GHG emission reduction is 19.1% of total emission of Business as Usual (2020BaU) (including 6.2% reduction is expected from the mitigation of grid power)

HCMC LCS Scenario towards 2020

28

50 41

2

3

2 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2020BaU

2020CCAP

MtC

O2e

q

Solid waste management

Agricultural non-energy-related

Freight transport

Passenger transport

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Agricultural energy-related

Grid power

Non-energy-related GHG emissions

Energy-related GHG emissions

Solid waste management (0.4)

Agricultural non-energy-related (0.1)

Freight transport (1.0)

Passenger transport (0.5)

Residential (3.0)

Commercial (2.9)

Industry (6.1)

Agricultural energy-related (0.005)

Grid power (5.1) 6.2%

(6,246 ktCO2eq)11.9%

This number is currently adopted inHCMC Climate Change Action Plan 2016-2020 toward 2030

Ho Chi Minh CityVietnam

• Collaborative team comprised by UTM (University Technology Malaysia)/TMG (Tokyo Metropolitan Government)/AIM transfers the building monitoring and reporting program which initiated by TMG.

• We works together with Putrajaya Corporation (PJC) and Iskandar Region Development Authority (IRDA).

• Trainings, workshops and intensive discussions many times among both cities’ staffs, TMG’s staffs and experts have been conducted so far.

LCS implementation: Transfer Knowledge from Tokyo to Malaysia

Workshop in Iskandar Malaysia

Training in TMG

Discussion in PJC

Site Visit in Putrajayabuilding

Training in TMG

June 2015 August 2015

LCS scenarios in Asia

IdentifyGHG ReductionPotential andNecessaryActions

TransferImplementation

Know-howTo Asia

CityDiagnosisby Q and L

usingCASBEE

Let’s work togetherwith cities towards

decarbonization (Paris Agreement)

and sustainable

development (SDGs)to achieve

2 degree target!

[email protected] 87

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