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Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 –...

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Nov. 6 th , 2002 ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 1 GSI: R. Estopina ECON 1 Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.
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Page 1: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

Nov

. 6th, 2

002

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

GSI

: R. Es

topi

na

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 1

9

Dem

and

and

Ou

tpu

t in

th

e Sh

ort

Ru

n.

Page 2: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Co

ntac

t D

etai

lsG

SI:

Ram

on E

stop

ina

Off

ice

Hou

rs:

No

OH

th

is T

hu

rsda

y !!

Off

ice:

Eva

ns

50

8-7

Emai

l: es

topi

na@

haas

.ber

kele

y.ed

u

Han

dout

s (o

nly

sect

ions

104

& 1

33)

afte

r cl

ass

in:

http

://w

ww

.ocf

.ber

kele

y.ed

u/~

jayc

hen/

econ

1/

Plea

se r

ead:

Rea

d be

fore

dow

nlo

adin

g!.

Page 3: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Se

ctio

n 19

Age

nda

Adm

inis

trat

ive

Stu

ff (

10 m

in)

Rec

ap Q

uiz

(10

min

)

Pro

blem

25.

6 (1

0 m

in)

Pro

blem

25.

7 (1

0 m

in)

Pro

blem

25.

9 (1

0 m

in)

Re-

cap

(2 m

in)

Page 4: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 4

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Ad

min

istr

ativ

e St

uff

PS

#3

rea

dy t

oday

fro

m E

con

-1

web

site

!!!

Du

e n

ext

Wed

nes

day

13

th.

Rem

embe

r, n

o cl

ass

nex

t M

onda

y!! -

Vet

eran

s D

ay H

olid

ay.

Opp

ortu

nit

y to

cat

ch-u

p an

d ge

t re

ady

for

Mid

term

.

Page 5: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 5

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

view

of

Last

Lec

ture

-11

/4th

Chap

ter

25:

AD:

plan

ned

vsac

tual

spe

ndin

g.Co

nsum

ptio

n Fu

nctio

n an

d M

PCAu

tono

mou

s vs

Indu

ced

spen

ding

Keyn

esia

n M

odel

Assu

mpt

ions

Keyn

esia

n Cr

oss

Dia

gram

Shift

s in

AD

Equi

libriu

m O

utpu

tPo

tent

ial O

utpu

tG

aps

(rec

essi

onar

y/ex

pans

iona

ry)

Para

dox

of t

hrift

& m

ultip

lier

Page 6: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 6

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

cap

Qui

z -

1To

tal p

lann

ed s

pend

ing

on f

inal

goo

ds a

nd

serv

ice

is c

alle

d

1)to

tal s

pend

ing.

2)to

tal c

onsu

mpt

ion.

3)ag

greg

ate

expe

nditu

res.

4)ag

greg

ate

cons

umpt

ion.

5)ag

greg

ate

dem

and.

Page 7: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 7

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

cap

Qui

z -

2A

firm

's a

ctua

l inv

estm

ent

will

exc

eed

its p

lann

ed

inve

stm

ent

whe

n

1)it

sells

less

tha

n it

plan

ned.

2)It

sel

ls m

ore

than

it p

lann

ed.

3)in

tere

st r

ates

ris

e.

4)in

tere

st r

ates

fal

l.

5)th

e ec

onom

y ex

perie

nces

an

unex

pect

ed

expa

nsio

n.

Page 8: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 8

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

cap

Qui

z -

3

The

larg

est

com

pone

nt o

f ag

greg

ate

dem

and

is

1)co

nsum

ptio

n.

2)in

vest

men

t.

3)go

vern

men

t pu

rcha

ses.

4)ex

port

s.

5)im

port

s.

Page 9: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 9

GSI

: R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

cap

Qui

z -

4

The

obje

ctiv

e of

sta

biliz

atio

n po

licie

s is

to

1)af

fect

agg

rega

te s

uppl

y.

2)el

imin

ate

outp

ut g

aps.

3)in

crea

se p

oten

tial G

DP.

4)ke

ep in

flatio

n co

nsta

nt.

5)ca

use

busi

ness

cyc

les

Page 10: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

0G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Re

cap

Qui

z -

5

The

valu

e of

the

MPC

is a

ssum

ed t

o be

1)le

ss t

han

1.

2)gr

eate

r th

an 1

.

3)le

ss t

han

0.

4)eq

ual t

o 1.

5)co

nsta

nt.

Page 11: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

1G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber:

Equ

atio

n 1

of

the

day:

Agg

rega

te D

eman

d (A

D):

tota

l pla

nned

spen

ding

on

final

goo

ds a

nd s

ervi

ces.

NX

GI

CAD

p+

++

=

Page 12: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

2G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber

(2)

Rem

embe

r: P

lann

edm

ay d

iffer

fro

m

actu

al fo

r fir

ms:

diff

eren

ce is

cha

nge

in

inve

ntor

ies.

Firm

sel

ls le

ss t

han

expe

cted

: in

vent

orie

s gr

ow

(Inc

reas

e in

inve

ntor

ies

is c

ount

ed a

s ac

tual

in

vest

men

t)

I>

Ip

Firm

sel

ls m

ore

than

exp

ecte

d: in

vent

orie

s de

clin

e Ip

> I

Page 13: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

3G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber

(3)

Com

pon

ents

of

AD

.A)

CO

NSU

MPT

ION

FU

NCT

ION

: T)

c(Y

CC

−+

==

con

stan

t te

rm c

aptu

ring

fact

ors

othe

r th

an d

ispo

sabl

e in

com

ec

= M

PC

(m

argi

nal p

rope

nsity

to

cons

ume)

: am

ount

C r

aise

s w

hen

disp

osab

le in

com

e ris

es;

assu

me

0 <

c<

1

C

Page 14: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

4G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber

(4)

B) R

est

of f

acto

rs a

re e

xoge

nous

.

TT

XN

NX

GG

IIp

=

=

==

Page 15: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

5G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber

(5)

Com

bini

ng a

ll eq

uatio

ns:

XN

GI

TYc

CAD

NX

GI

CAD

p

++

+−

+=

++

+=

)(

Com

pose

d of

:A

uto

nom

ous

AD

& I

ndu

ced

AD

cY)

XN

GI

Tc-

C(

AD+

++

+=

Page 16: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

6G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Im

port

ant

to r

emem

ber

(6)

In e

quili

briu

m Y

= A

D, s

o:

Mul

tiplie

r:

cY)

XN

GI

Tc-

C(

Y+

++

+=

)X

NG

IT

c-

C(

Y+

++

−=

c11

MPC

c−

=−

=1

111

Mult.

Page 17: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

7G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Bo

x 25

.2 (

F&B

page

667

)Fr

om E

xam

ple

25.2

(F&

B pa

ge 6

64)

we

have

:=

620

/c =

0.8

/

= 2

20 /

=

300

/

=20

/

=25

0

We

know

the

def

initi

on o

f Ag

greg

ate

Dem

and

is:

AD

= C

+ I

p+

G +

NX

And,

in t

he S

HO

RT

RU

N:

250

TT

20

XN

NX

300

GG

220

II

T)

0.8(Y

620

T)

c(Y

CC p

==

==

==

==

−+

=−

+=

CI

GX

NT

Page 18: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

8G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Bo

x 25

.2 (

Conc

lusi

on)

Subs

titut

ing

the

com

pone

nts:

AD

= [

62

0 +

0.8

(Y-2

50

)] +

22

0 +

20

0 +

20

And

final

ly:

AD

= 9

60 +

0.8

YIn

add

ition

, fro

m t

he s

hort

ter

m e

quili

briu

m:

Y=AD

So t

he p

revi

ous

equa

tion

will

be:

Y =

96

0 +

0.8

YSo

lvin

g fo

r Y: Y

= 9

60

/ 0.

2 =

4,8

00

Page 19: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 1

9G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (F

&B

page

684

)Fo

r th

e fo

llow

ing

econ

omy,

fin

dAu

tono

mou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

The

mul

tiplie

rSR

equ

ilibr

ium

ou

tput

O

utpu

t ga

p.12,000

*

Y

2,000

TT

200

XN

NX

2,500

GG

1,500

II

T)

0.5(Y

3,000

C p

==

=

==

==

==

−+

=

Page 20: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

0G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (c

ont’

d)A)

The

rel

atio

nshi

p be

twee

n ag

greg

ate

dem

and

and

outp

ut is

giv

en b

y:

YAD

YAD

NX

GI

CAD

p

5.06200

200

2500

1500

)2000

(5.03000

+=

++

+−

+=

++

+=

Auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d eq

uals

620

0,

the

part

of

aggr

egat

e de

man

d th

at d

oes

not

depe

nd o

n ou

tput

.

Page 21: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

1G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (c

ont’

d)

To f

ind

shor

t-ru

n eq

uilib

rium

out

put,

use

th

e eq

uatio

n Y

=A

Dan

d so

lve

for

Y:

400

,126200

5.05.0

6200

==

+==

YY

YY

ADY

Wha

t is

the

Out

put

Gap

?Rem

embe

r la

st c

lass

: Y

*-Y

Page 22: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

2G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (c

ont’

d)

So w

e ha

ve:

SR e

quili

briu

m o

utpu

t (Y

) =

12,

400

Pote

ntia

l out

put

(Y*)

= 1

2,00

0O

utpu

t ga

p is

= –

400.

Is t

his

a re

cess

iona

ry o

r ex

pans

iona

ry

gap? Ex

pans

iona

ry, Y

> Y

*

Page 23: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

3G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (c

ont’

d)Th

e m

ultip

lier

can

be f

ound

by

the

form

ula

of t

he m

ultip

lier

(obv

ious

ly)

=

1/(1

-c)

20.5

1

1

c1

1=

−=

Ther

e is

ano

ther

way

to

solv

e it

(mor

e co

mpl

icat

ed),

but

I k

now

you

are

cur

ious

.

Page 24: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

4G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (c

ont’

d)Im

agin

e th

at a

uton

omou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

rises

fro

m 6

200

to 6

300.

Now

the

equ

atio

n Y=

AD b

ecom

esY

= 6

,30

0 +

0.5

YSo

lvin

g fo

r ou

tput

yie

lds

Y =

12

,60

0, a

n in

crea

se o

f 20

0 ov

er t

he s

olut

ion

foun

d be

fore

. W

e ha

ve s

how

n th

at a

n in

crea

se in

au

tono

mou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

of 1

00

rais

es s

hort

-run

equ

ilibr

ium

out

put

by 2

00.

Ther

efor

e th

e m

ultip

lier

mus

t eq

ual 2

.

Page 25: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

5G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

6 (C

oncl

usio

n)

By h

ow m

uch

wou

ld a

uton

omou

s AD

hav

e to

cha

nge

to e

limin

ate

the

outp

ut g

ap?

As t

he m

ultip

lier

is 2

, to

elim

inat

e th

e ou

tput

ga

p of

–40

0, a

uton

omou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

wou

ld h

ave

to c

hang

e by

–20

0, t

hat

is,

auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d w

ould

hav

e to

fal

l. If

aut

onom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d fa

lls fro

m

6200

to

6000

, the

n sh

ort-

run

equi

libriu

m

outp

ut e

qual

s 12

,000

and

the

out

put

gap

is

elim

inat

ed.

Page 26: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

6G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (F

&B

page

685

)

Follo

win

g w

ith t

he p

revi

ous

prob

lem

but

now

= 0

.A)

Wha

t w

ould

be

the

SR e

quili

briu

m o

utpu

t?W

e pr

ocee

d as

bef

ore:

YAD

YAD

NX

GI

CAD

p

5.06000

02500

1500

)2000

(5.03000

+=

++

+−

+=

++

+=X

N

Page 27: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

7G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (c

ont’

d)

Then

we

appl

y th

e de

finiti

on o

f sh

ort-

run

equi

libriu

m o

utpu

t, Y

= A

D.

000

,126000

5.05.0

6000

==

+==

YY

YY

ADY

Page 28: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

8G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (c

ont’

d)

B) E

cono

mic

rec

over

y ab

road

incr

ease

s th

e de

man

d fo

r th

e co

untr

y’s

expo

rts.

As

a re

sult

= 1

00.

Wha

t ha

ppen

s to

the

SR E

quili

briu

m

Out

put?

XN

Page 29: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 2

9G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (c

ont’

d)An

incr

ease

of by

100

impl

ies

that

au

tono

mou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

rises

by

100,

so

now

we

have

:

So t

he in

crea

se in

net

exp

orts

of 10

0 ha

s in

crea

sed

outp

ut b

y 20

0.

200

,126100

5.05.0

6100

5.06100

==

+==

+=

YY

YY

ADY

YAD

XN

Page 30: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

0G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (c

ont’

d)

C) N

ow a

ssum

e fo

reig

n ec

onom

ies

are

slow

ing

and

the

dem

and

for

the

coun

try’

s ex

port

s is

red

uced

. As

a r

esul

t =

-100

.W

hat

happ

ens

to t

he S

R E

quili

briu

m

Out

put?

XN

Page 31: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

1G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (c

ont’

d)A

decr

ease

of

by

100

impl

ies

that

aut

onom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d fa

lls b

y 10

0, s

o no

w w

e ha

ve:

So t

he d

eclin

e in

net

exp

orts

of

100

low

ers

outp

ut b

y 20

0.

800

,115900

5.05.0

5900

5.05900

==

+==

+=

YY

YY

ADY

YAD

XN

Page 32: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

2G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

7 (C

oncl

usio

n)H

ow t

hese

res

ults

hel

p ex

plai

n th

e te

nden

cy o

f re

cess

ions

and

exp

ansi

ons

to s

prea

d ac

ross

co

untr

ies?

The

exam

ple

show

s th

at a

wea

k ec

onom

y in

one

co

untr

y, b

y re

duci

ng t

hat

coun

try’

s im

port

s fr

om a

se

cond

cou

ntry

, can

cre

ate

econ

omic

wea

knes

s in

th

e se

cond

cou

ntry

as

wel

l.Si

mila

rly, a

n ex

pans

ion

that

incr

ease

s a

coun

try’

s pu

rcha

ses

of f

orei

gn p

rodu

cts

stre

ngth

ens

the

econ

omie

s of

its

trad

e pa

rtne

rs.

Page 33: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

3G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (F

&B

page

685

)

For

the

follo

win

g ec

onom

y, f

ind

how

muc

h w

ould

G

ov. p

urch

ases

ha

ve t

o ch

ange

to

elim

inat

e an

y ou

tput

gap

(th

is

is f

isca

l pol

icy)

.580

*

Y

150

TT

10

XN

NX

120

GG

70

II

T)

0.8(Y

40

C p

==

=

==

==

==

−+

=

Page 34: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

4G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)

We

solv

e fo

r sh

ort-

run

equi

libriu

m

outp

ut v

ia t

he u

sual

tw

o st

eps.

Firs

t, f

ind

the

rela

tions

hip

of a

ggre

gate

de

man

d to

out

put:

YAD

YAD

NX

GI

CAD

p

8.0120

10120

70)

150

(8.040

+=

++

+−

+=

++

+=

Page 35: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

5G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)Se

cond

, use

the

con

ditio

n Y

= A

Dto

so

lve

for

shor

t-ru

n eq

uilib

rium

out

put:

600120

2.08.0

120

==

+==

YY

YY

ADY

The

outp

ut g

ap is

Y*-

Y =

580

-600

= -

20,

so t

here

is a

n ex

pans

iona

ry g

ap o

f 20

.

Page 36: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

6G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)

To a

nsw

er t

he q

uest

ion

abou

t th

e ef

fect

s of

fis

cal p

olic

y w

e ne

ed t

o kn

ow

the

mul

tiplie

r fo

r th

is e

cono

my.

In t

his

case

:

58.0

11

11

=−

=−c

Page 37: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

7G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)

Now

we

can

find

the

appr

opria

te f

isca

l po

licie

s to

elim

inat

e th

e ou

tput

gap

.Be

caus

e ac

tual

out

put

exce

eds

pote

ntia

l ou

tput

by

20, a

nd t

he m

ultip

lier

is 5

, a

decr

ease

of

4 in

gov

ernm

ent

purc

hase

s (f

rom

120

to

116)

will

elim

inat

e th

e ou

tput

gap

.Yo

u ca

n ve

rify

this

dire

ctly

by

sett

ing

=11

6 an

d re

-sol

ving

for

sho

rt-r

un

equi

libriu

m o

utpu

t.G

Page 38: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

8G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)

By h

ow m

uch

wou

ld t

axes

hav

e to

cha

nge?

(A

ssum

e M

PC =

0.8

)Fo

r th

e ca

se o

f a

tax

chan

ge w

e ha

ve t

o be

car

eful

. A

chan

ge in

tax

es o

f ∆T

does

not

cha

nge

auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d by

∆T,

bec

ause

con

sum

ers

do n

ot

spen

d 10

0% o

f an

y ta

x cu

t (o

r re

duce

spe

ndin

g by

10

0% o

f an

y ta

x in

crea

se).

A ch

ange

in t

axes

of ∆T

inst

ead

chan

ges

auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d by

c∆T

, whe

re c

is t

he m

argi

nal

prop

ensi

ty t

o co

nsum

e (M

PC)

out

of d

ispo

sabl

e in

com

e.

Page 39: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 3

9G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)

In t

he c

ase

of g

over

nmen

t sp

endi

ng, e

limin

atin

g th

e ou

tput

gap

req

uire

s re

duci

ng a

uton

omou

s ag

greg

ate

dem

and

by 4

.To

red

uce

auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d by

4

via

a ta

x ch

ange

, Gov

. will

incr

ease

tax

es b

y 5.

Si

nce

the

MPC

= 0

.8, a

tax

incr

ease

of 5

will

lead

co

nsum

ers

to r

educ

e th

eir

spen

ding

by

4, a

s de

sire

d.

You

can

also

ver

ify it

by

sett

ing

=11

5 an

d so

lvin

g fo

r sh

ort-

run

equi

libriu

m o

utpu

t.T

Page 40: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 4

0G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (c

ont’

d)W

hat

happ

ens

if no

w Y

*=63

0?If

pot

entia

l out

put

is 6

30, t

hen

the

outp

ut g

ap is

Y*-

Y=30

, th

at is

, the

re is

a r

eces

sion

ary

gap

of 3

0.

As t

he m

ultip

lier

is 5

, thi

s ga

p ca

n be

elim

inat

ed b

y ra

isin

g go

vern

men

t pu

rcha

ses

by 6

.

An

incr

ease

in

shif

ts t

he

expe

ndi

ture

lin

e u

pwar

ds.

AD

Ou

tpu

tY

*=

63

06

00

Y=

AD A

D=

12

0+

0.8

Y

AD

=1

26

+0

.8Y

G

Page 41: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 4

1G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

25.

9 (C

oncl

usio

n)

Alte

rnat

ivel

y, c

ut t

axes

by

6/0.

8 =

7.5

.

Beca

use

the

MPC

is 0

.8, a

cut

in t

axes

of

7.5

will

als

o st

imul

ate

auto

nom

ous

aggr

egat

e de

man

d by

6 a

nd o

utpu

t by

6*

5 =

30.

Th

e Ke

ynes

ian

cros

s di

agra

m in

thi

s ca

se

show

s th

e ex

pend

iture

line

ris

ing

too,

ra

ther

tha

n fa

lling

, to

rest

ore

Y=Y*

.

Page 42: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 4

2G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Prob

lem

s fo

r ne

xt s

ectio

ns !

!!

For

next

sec

tion:

Ch

apte

r 2

6:

Pro

blem

s 3

, 8, 9

.

Rem

embe

r: T

his

is n

ot m

anda

tory

.It

won’t

be

grad

ed. O

nly

for

thos

e of

you

tha

t ne

ed im

prov

emen

t in

Ex

am g

rade

s.

Page 43: Section 19 Demand and Output in the Short Run.jaychen/econ1/econpdf/ECON1 - Secti… · ECON 1 – Section 19 – Page 20 GSI: R. Estopina Nov. 6 th Problem 25.6 (cont, 2002 ’ d)

ECO

N 1

–Se

ctio

n 19

–Pa

ge 4

3G

SI:

R. Es

topi

naN

ov. 6

th, 2

002Nex

t cl

ass

Nex

t Cl

ass:

Sect

ion

20 –

Wed

nesd

ay, N

ov 1

3th

No

clas

s n

ext

Mon

day

. Vet

eran

s D

ay H

olid

ay.

Du

e P

S#4

!!!!

If

you

wan

t m

ore

prac

tice,

wor

k on

Nex

t Se

ctio

ns

Prob

lem

s (a

lthou

gh y

ou p

roba

bly

have

eno

ugh)

.Rea

d ch

. 26

& 2

7.Yo

u ca

n do

wnl

oad

hand

outs

thi

s af

tern

oon.

Than

k yo

u fo

r co

min

g on

tim

e !!

!

Enjo

y th

e lo

ng w

eeke

nd &

C-U

Wed

nesd

ay !

!.


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