September, 2013

Strategy and Analyses Department

Poland’sPoland’sECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

22

• Area: 323 thousand km2 - 9th in Europe, 69th in the world

• Population: 38.5 million - 8th in Europe,34th in the world

• Currency: Polish Zloty (USD 1 ≈ PLN 2.96) (EUR 1 ≈ PLN 4.12)

• GDP total: EUR 381.0 bln (USD 487.7 bln)

• GDP per capita PPP: EUR 16 800 (USD 20 592)

• GDP per capita: EUR 9 900 (USD 12 538)

• GDP growth: 4.5%*, 1.9%

• Membership: OECD, WTO, NATO, EU

Large domesticmarket

Central location in Europe

International legaland business

standards

Young and well- educated workforce

* Data for 2011

Strengths of PolandStrengths of Poland

33

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000Entry into the NATO

OECD

WTO

Schengen

Poland joins the EU

Leader of GDP growth in EU

Poland’s GDP in mn PLN

Data: Poland’s CSO

PolandPolandSSustainableustainable and and balancedbalanced economic growth economic growth

EU Presidency

44

%

Data: Poland’s CSO

Poland’s Poland’s GDP GDP growthgrowth(% change. yoy)(% change. yoy)

According to CSO data. 2012 GDP growth amounted to 1.9%. The biggest growth contribution was made by net exports. According to CSO estimates. in the 1st half of 2013 growth

amounted to 0.7%.

2.6

3.7

5.1

7.0

6.2

7.1

5.04.5 4.3

1.2 1.4

3.9

5.3

3.6

6.26.8

5.1

1.6

3.94.5

1.91.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

* - MoE forecast

55

Nominal GDP of EU - CEE countries (PPS , EUR bn, Nominal GDP of EU - CEE countries (PPS , EUR bn, 2012)2012)

Data: Eurostat

Estonia23,5

Latvia32,3

Slovenia43,1

Lithuania53,3

Bulgaria88,4

Slovakia104,0

Hungary167,1

Czech Republic212,4

Romania267,7

Poland649,1

66 CEE & Balkan EU member statesCEE & Balkan EU member states GDP gGDP growth ratesrowth rates 202009-201209-2012 ((compared with the same compared with the same periodperiod of the previous year of the previous year))

Data: Eurostat

77

EU 10 GDP performance in 2004-2014EU 10 GDP performance in 2004-2014

Data: Eurostat, 2013-2014 - forecast

    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014                                             

EU 27   2,5   2,1   3,3   3,2   0,3   -4,3   2,1   1,6   -0,3   -0,1   1,4                                             

Euro zone   2,2   1,7   3,2   2,9   0,4   -4,4   2,0   1,4   -0,6   -0,4   1,2                                             

Bulgaria   6,7   6,4   6,5   6,4   6,2   -5,5   0,4   1,8   0,8   0,9   1,7                                             

Czech R.  4,7   6,8   7,0   5,7   3,1   -4,5   2,5   1,9   -1,3   -0,4   1,6

                                             Estonia   6,3   8,9   10,1   7,5   -4,2   -14,1   3,3   8,3   3,2   3,0   4,0

                                             Latvia   8,9   10,1   11,2   9,6   -3,3   -17,7   -0,9   5,5   5,6   3,8   4,1

                                             Lithuania   7,4   7,8   7,8   9,8   2,9   -14,8   1,5   5,9   3,7   3,1   3,6

                                             Hungary   4,8   4,0   3,9   0,1   0,9   -6,8   1,3   1,6   -1,7   0,2   1,4

                                             Poland   5,3   3,6   6,2   6,8   5,1   1,6   3,9   4,5   1,9   1,1   2,2

                                             Romania   8,5   4,2   7,9   6,3   7,3   -6,6   -1,1   2,2   0,7   1,6   2,2

                                             Slovenia   4,4   4,0   5,8   7,0   3,4   -7,8   1,2   0,6   -2,3   -2,0   -0,1

                                             Slovakia   5,1   6,7   8,3   10,5   5,8   -4,9   4,4   3,2   2,0   1,0   2,8

88

1.1

8.3

3.7

11.6

-4.5

9.0

7.5

0.8

6.7

0.6

12.6

10.7

3.6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

output PPI

Data: Poland’s CSO

Data not fully comparable. From 2006 data base on a new methodology.

Poland’s iPoland’s industrial ndustrial pproductionroduction

January-July 2013 industrial production increased by 0.5% (yoy); prices of sold production of industry increased by 1.3%.

-0.3

0.9

18.1

2.5 3.0

12.4

-0.6

1.0

-6.4 -7.0

1.5

15.5

12.1

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

output PPI

99

Data: Poland’s CSO

Data not fully comparable. From 2006 data base on a new methodology.

Poland’s constructionPoland’s construction pproductionroduction

January-July 2013 construction production decreased by 17.7% (yoy); prices in construction sector decreased by 1.8%.

1010

January-July 2013 unemployment rate amounted to 13.1%; average employment (yoy) amounted to 5,488 thous. and the average wages and salaries in enterprise sector stood at PLN 3,781 (+1,9% yoy in real terms).

Data: Poland’s CSO

Labour market Labour market –– unemployment unemployment rate in Polandrate in Poland

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

I 2004

IV 2

004

VII

2004

X 2

004

I 2005

IV 2

005

VII

2005

X 2

005

I 2006

IV 2

006

VII

2006

X 2

006

I 2007

IV 2

007

VII

2007

X 2

007

I 2008

IV 2

008

VII

2008

X 2

008

I 2009

IV 2

009

VII

2009

X 2

009

I 2010

IV 2

010

VII

2010

X 2

010

I 2011

IV 2

011

VII

2011

X 2

011

I 2012

IV 2

012

VII

2012

X 2

012

I 2013

IV 2

013

VII

2013

%

1111

June-July 2013 consumer prices rose by 0.9%; prices growth was driven by a higher dynamics of food and non-

alcoholic beverages prices (by 3.5%). Housing charges rose by 1.7%, including energy carriers (by 0.2% yoy).

27,8 19,9

14,9

11,8

7,3

10,1

5,5

1,9 0,8

3,52,1

1,0

2,5

4,23,5

2,6

4,33,7

21,6

18,5

13,2

8,69,8

8,5

6,3

0,8 1,7

4,4

0,7 1,4

4,03,3 3,5

3,14,6

2,4

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

annual average XII/XII

Data: Poland’s CSO

Consumer Price Index in PolandConsumer Price Index in Poland

1212

Nominal trade value – PolandNominal trade value – Poland 2004-2012 2004-2012 (commodities; in EUR mln)(commodities; in EUR mln)

59 6

98 71 4

24 87 9

26 101

839

116

244

98 2

18

120

373 13

6 69

4

143

456

71 3

54 81 1

70 100

784 12

0 39

0 142

448

107

529

134

188 15

2 56

8

154

040

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Exports Imports Data: Poland’s CSO

13

In 2012 the main receivers of Polish exports were developed countries (82.2%), in which UE countries (76%). The main Polish exports partners were Germany (25.1%), United Kingdom (6.8%) and Czech Republic (6.3%).

Poland’s foreign trade Poland’s foreign trade geographicalgeographical structure structure(according to CSO data for 2012)(according to CSO data for 2012)

Data: Poland’s CSO

ExportsExports ImportsImports

17.8%

76.0%

6.2%

European Union

Other developed

Developing countries

57.5%

7.1%

35.4%

14

After 7 months of 2013 total Polish exports increased by 6.2%, to EUR 86.9 bn, whereas imports decreased by 1.7%, to EUR 87.5 bn.

Exports to Turkey increased by 4.6%, to above EUR 1.4 bn.

Polish imports from Turkey rose by 6.2%, to about EUR 1 bn.

In trade with Turkey Poland recorded a surplus of EUR 430 mn.

In January-July 2013, Turkey’s share of the total Polish turnover was: in exports – 1.7% in imports – 1.2%.

Trade Poland-TurkeyTrade Poland-TurkeyJanuary-July 2013January-July 2013

Data: Poland’s CSO

15

Electromechanical products and its parts: 64.4% in exports 40.7% in imports

Chemical industry products: 14.2% in exports 11.1% in imports

Light industry products: 25.9% in imports

Metallurgical products: 9.5% in exports 10% in imports.

After 7 months of 2013 in Poland’s trade After 7 months of 2013 in Poland’s trade with Turkey the dominant role had:with Turkey the dominant role had:

Data: Poland’s CSO

1616

Foreign Direct Investments in PolandForeign Direct Investments in Poland

Main foreign investors in Poland are European Union countries. At the end of 2012 FDI inward stock accounted to EUR 176.9bn. According to NBP data for 2011, companies from the Netherlands,

Germany, France and Luxembourg are the biggest foreign investors in Poland

46.1 45.9

63.6

76.8

95.6

121.3116.6

128.5

161.4153.3

176.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

EU

R b

n

Poland - Foreign Direct InvestmentsPoland - Foreign Direct Investments

Data: NBP

17

According to NBP data, in 2011, Turkish companies invested in Poland EUR 62,9 million. The estimated stock of Turkish FDI in Poland at the end of 2011 amounted at EUR 26.5 million.

According to PAIiIZ in 2012 there were 6 companies with Turkish capital (Nurol Holding, Mesa Mesken AS, Niff Rubber Industry, Polimer Kaucuk Sanayu ve Pazarlama AW, Koc Holding – Beko Polska).

Companies from Poland invested in Turkey till the end of 2011 EUR 184.3 million.

Among the biggest Polish investors in Turkey are companies operating in IT sector (Asseco), pharmaceutical industry (Polpharma – biggest Polish investor in Turkey), and also in chemical industry (Selena).

According to PAIiIZ data 100 Polish companies want to invest in Turkey.

FDI Poland-TurkeyFDI Poland-Turkey(according to National Bank of Poland data for 2011)(according to National Bank of Poland data for 2011)

18 Ernst&Young Report – European Ernst&Young Report – European Attractiveness Survey 2013Attractiveness Survey 2013

Country 2011 2012Annual change

Share(2012)

1 Poland 121 148 22.3% 3.9%2 Russia 128 128 0.0% 3.4%3 Turkey 97 95 -2.1% 2.5%4 Serbia 67 78 16.4% 2.1%

5Czech Rep. 66 64 -3.0% 1.7%

Country 2011 2012

Annual

change

Share(2012

)

1 Russia 8,362 13,356 59.7% 7.8%2 Poland 7,838 13,111 67.3% 7.7%3 Serbia 13,479 10.302 -23.6% 6.0%4 Turkey 7,295 10,146 39.1% 6.0%5 Romania 5,985 7,114 18.9% 4.2%

Number of jobs created by FDI in CEE

Number of FDI Projects in CEEPoland was the continent’s strong performer

in 2012, attracting 22.3% more projects than in 2011. Within the CEE region, Poland outpaced Russia to become the leading destination for FDI projects in 2012.

With 13,111 jobs created by FDI, up 67.3%, Poland ranked 3rd in terms of job creation for the whole of the continent (after the UK and Russia). US investments rose sharply in services projects, while German companies increased their presence in the automotive and logistics sectors.

Poland is also developing BPO centres in finance, accounting, contact and research.

Poland was the top improver globally in the past year, according to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 report. It has won attention as the fastest growing EU member since 2008, and benefts from a skilled native workforce and an extensive and able migrant workforce.

Poland was the leading CEE destination according to investors, claiming 37% of the votes.

Pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/500-507 Warsaw

tel +48 22 693 50 00fax +48 22 693 40 46

email mg@mg.gov.plweb www.mg.gov.pl

Ministry of Economy

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

Ministry of Economy pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/5 tel. +48 22 693 50 00 email: mg@mg.gov.plStrategy and Analyses Department 00-507 Warsaw fax +48 22 693 40 46 web: www.mg.gov.pl

more information on:www.mg.gov.pl >> Analizy>>English Version >> Poland's economic performance