www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Shale Gas and Tight Oil Development in
the U.S., Poland and the Rest of World:
Status and Outlook
US-Poland Energy Roundtable
United States Energy Association
April 24, 2013 | Washington, D.C.
by
Aloulou Fawzi
Project Manager
World Shale Oil and Gas Resource Assessments and Activities
Overview
• Status and outlook of shale gas and tight oil development in
the U.S.
• EIA perspective on shale gas and tight oil resources in
Poland and the rest of the world
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013 2
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown
dramatically over the past few years
3
shale gas production (dry)
billion cubic feet per day
Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of March 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated
average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. Tight oil: Drilling Info & EIA through December 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US
Marcellus (PA and WV)
Haynesville (LA and TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Bakken (ND)
Woodford (OK)
Fayetteville (AR)
Barnett (TX)
Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagle Ford (TX)
Bakken (MT & ND)
Spraberry (TX Permian)
Bonespring (TX Permian)
Wolfcamp (TX Permian)
Niobrara-Codell (CO)
Granite Wash (OK & TX)
Monterey (CA)
Woodford (OK)
Austin Chalk (LA & TX)
tight oil production
million barrels of oil per day
Theory Experiment Practice
These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics
differently over time in an iterative process
4
Geology
Technology
Economics
Resources in
Place
(GIP)
Technically
Recoverable
Resources
(TRR)
Economically
Recoverable
Resources
(ERR)
Well-level data, incl. estimated ultimate recovery (EUR)
Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth
Drilling costs Recompletions
Price of gas
P
Q
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
5
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on data from various published studies. Canada and Mexico plays from ARI.
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new
information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates
6
U.S. dry gas resources
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
AEO Edition
2,327
304
543
1,479
*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the
North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation.
Unproved shale gas
Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore)
Proved reserves (all types & locations incl. 94 Tcf shale)
USGS Marcellus
Assessment
Benchmarking
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
7
U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas
billion barrels
(1) The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources.
(2) Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included.
(3) Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category.
Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate
increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year of Annual Energy Outlook
Unproved Alaska (1)
Unproved L48 Offshore (2)
Unproved Tight Oil (3)
Unproved Tight Oil (reclassified from onshore)
Unproved Other L48 Onshore
Proved Reserves
23.8
48.6
41.6
16.5
67.0
25.2
222.6
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
U.S. tight oil production leads growth in domestic production
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early
Release, and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
History 2011
STEO April 2013 U.S. crude oil projection
(end of year rate)
Reference case
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day)
Tight oil
Projections History 2011 Projections
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
Tight oil
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 High Oil
& Gas Resource case
High Oil & Natural Gas Resource case
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Shale gas production leads growth in production
through 2040
9
U.S. dry natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
Projections History 2011
50%
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption
and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
10
U.S. dry gas
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Foreign joint venture investment in U.S. shale plays
11
Source: EIA, from trade press reports as of January 10, 2013
Foreign Domestic Amount
Partner Country Partner Shale Play ($B) Year
British Petroleum UK Chesapeake Woodford 1.70 2008
British Gas Group UK EXCO Marcellus 0.95 2009
StatoilHydro Norway Chesapeake Marcellus 3.38 2009
Reliance India Pioneer Eagle Ford 1.36 2010
Reliance India Atlas Marcellus 1.70 2010
Reliance India Carrizo Marcellus 0.39 2010
Total France Chesapeake Barnett 2.25 2010
CNOOC China Chesapeake Niobrara 0.57 2010
British Gas UK EXCO Haynesville 1.30 2010
Mitsui Japan Anadarko Marcellus 1.40 2010
CNOOC China Chesapeake Eagle Ford 1.08 2011
KNOC Korea Anadarko Eagle Ford 1.55 2011
Marubeni Japan Marathon Niobrara 0.27 2011
Mitsui Japan SM Energy Eagle Ford 0.68 2011
GAIL India Carrizo Eagle Ford 0.10 2011
Total France Chesapeake/EnerVest Utica 2.30 2012
Sinopec China Devon TMS, Niobrara, Utica 2.20 2012
Marubeni Japan Hunt Oil Eagle Ford 1.30 2012
Osaka Gas Japan Cabot Oil and Gas Eagle Ford 0.25 2012
Sumitomo Japan Devon Wolfcamp 1.40 2012
Sinochem China Pioneer Wolfcamp 1.70 2013
Source: EIA, trade media Total 28.17
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
EIA study to update & expand coverage of shale gas assessment
of 2011 and identifying prospective tight oil formations
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration with ARI, Inc. 2011 www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
,not assessed
12 Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Poland assessed basins
13
Source: EIA/ARI World Tight Oil and Shale Gas Resource Assessment 2013 (Preliminary, Do Not Cite)
• Baltic/Warsaw
• Lublin
• Podlasie
• Foe Sudetic
Activities: 30 vertical data wells, 6
vertical and 2 horizontal production
test wells.
PGNiG, ConocoPhillips and Chevron,
Marathon, Talisman
Total taking over Exxon stakes in
Lublin and Podlasie
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Silurian, Ordovician and Cambrian formations were targeted for
assessing Baltic, Podlasie and Lublin basins
14
Source: LNG Energy Ltd.
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Stratigraphy of the lacustrine-deposited Carboniferous and
younger formations in the Fore-Sudetic Monocline
15
Source: San Leon Energy, 2012
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Baltic basin map showing thermal maturity window for the Lower Silurian
Llandovery shale based on calculated vitrinite reflectance (Ro).
16
Source: EIA/ARI World Tight Oil and Shale Gas Resource Assessment 2013 (Preliminary, Do Not Cite)
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Lublin and Podlasie basin map showing thermal maturity
window of Lower Silurian Llandovery shale
17
Source: EIA/ARI World Tight Oil and Shale Gas Resource Assessment 2013 (Preliminary, Do Not Cite)
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Fore-Sudetic Monocline of southwestern Poland, showing shale
prospective area
18
Source: EIA/ARI World Tight Oil and Shale Gas Resource Assessment 2013 (Preliminary, Do Not Cite)
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and
tight oil
19
• Resource quantities and distribution
• Surface vs. mineral rights
• Risk appetite of industry participants
• Infrastructure and technology
• Environmental constraints
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
For more information
20
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual
Aloulou Fawzi
US-Poland Energy Roundtable, Washington, DC April 24, 2013
